2012 MLB Power Rankings for September 10th: Phillies Keep Fighting

September 10, 2012 by  
Filed under Fan News

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its award-winning baseball simulation engine to present the most comprehensive and unbiased ranking possible of all 30 teams in baseball each Monday during the regular season. To come up with the rankings, using only their statistical performance to date this season, each team is simulated against every other team 100 times – 50 at home and 50 at the opposing ballpark so that all five pitchers in the current rotation start ten times at each location.

(Note: This means that if a pitcher who was in the rotation was recently put on the DL, he will not be included in the simulations. This is true of position players as well, but an injury to one position player will usually have a lesser impact on the week-to-week results.)

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
1. Washington Nationals +2 61.0 4.6 3.6
2. Cincinnati Reds 59.8 4.7 3.8
3. New York Yankees +1 58.4 4.8 4.0
4. Texas Rangers -3 57.8 4.8 3.9
5. Tampa Bay Rays +5 57.5 4.0 3.4
6. St. Louis Cardinals 56.1 4.6 4.1
7. Los Angeles Angels -2 55.9 4.8 4.2
8. Detroit Tigers -1 53.5 4.5 4.2
9. Oakland Athletics -1 53.4 3.9 3.5
10. Philadelphia Phillies +7 53.1 4.2 4.0
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
11. Pittsburgh Pirates +4 52.4 4.1 3.9
12. Milwaukee Brewers +2 51.9 4.7 4.5
13. Atlanta Braves -4 51.0 4.2 3.9
14. New York Mets -1 50.7 4.2 4.2
15. Baltimore Orioles +4 50.6 4.0 4.0
16. Chicago White Sox -4 50.3 4.1 4.0
17. San Francisco Giants -6 50.0 4.1 4.1
18. Arizona Diamondbacks +3 49.3 4.2 4.2
19. Los Angeles Dodgers -3 49.0 3.9 4.0
20. Miami Marlins 48.0 3.9 4.1
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
21. Toronto Blue Jays -3 47.6 3.9 4.2
22. San Diego Padres 46.3 3.9 4.3
23. Seattle Mariners +4 46.1 3.4 3.7
24. Kansas City Royals +1 45.5 4.0 4.3
25. Minnesota Twins -2 45.5 4.1 4.5
26. Boston Red Sox -2 44.8 4.1 4.6
27. Cleveland Indians +1 41.6 3.9 4.6
28. Colorado Rockies -2 41.2 4.5 5.3
29. Chicago Cubs 36.4 3.7 5.1
30. Houston Astros 35.3 3.5 4.9

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2011 World Series Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

February 14, 2011 by  
Filed under Fan News

For the Fenway faithful, 2010 was a year to forget.

Their team battled injuries, bad luck and substandard play en route to a third-place finish in the AL East—the Red Sox’s lowest showing since 2006. Not even the once-beloved David Ortiz was immune from fans’ scorn.

But the offseason has been a different tale, one filled with prosperity and providence. To date, Boston has:

1. Acquired three-time All-Star Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres.

2. Won the Carl Crawford sweepstakes.

3. Bolstered the bullpen by signing Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.

4. Laughed at the Yankees missing out on Cliff Lee.

To fill in for the departed Adrian Beltre, the Sox traded for the services of Gonzalez, the slick-fielding slugger from San Diego. Gonzo’s arrival permits Boston to move Kevin Youkilis to third and plants Big Papi permanently at the DH spot.

The acquirement of Crawford came as somewhat of a surprise, as the baseball world equated the Gonzalez deal to Boston bowing out of obtaining the Tampa Bay outfielder. Crawford not only brings his defensive prowess to Fenway but also adds speed to a relatively slow-footed Red Sox roster.

Although both had relatively down years, the additions of Jenks and Wheeler should help alleviate the pedestrian pitching of the bullpen.

While Red Sox Nation was undoubtedly elated by the first three proceedings, the fourth delivered just as much delight thanks to the deep-rooted dislike those in New England have for their New York cohorts.

However, the Pinstripes’ loss is the Phillies’ gain. The addition of Lee to Philadelphia’s arsenal of arms has many predicting a red-and-blue reign over the Senior Circuit. If highly heralded prospect Domonic Brown, who hit .327 with 20 bombs in two levels in the minors last season, lives up to his billing, Philly appears to be the team to beat in the NL.

The offseason overhauls of the Sox and Phils have made each the prohibitive favorite in their respective leagues. So if these projections come to fruition, which team would be crowned world champs? Thanks to the WhatIfSports baseball engine, we were able to simulate a series between Boston and Philadelphia 255 times. Here is a sample series indicative of the result:

Game 1
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Boston 1 5 0 Box Score
Philadelphia 3 5 0  
WP: Roy Halladay LP: Jon Lester
Player of the Game: Roy Halladay (CG, ER, H, 8 K)

The opening game of our series highlighted a pitchers’ duel between two starters with no-hitters under their belts. Boston struck the first blow of the series with an RBI triple from Dustin Pedroia in the third inning to give the Sox a 1-0 advantage. Unfortunately for Red Sox Nation, that’s the only production the vaunted Boston lineup could muster, as Philadelphia starter Roy Halladay kept the Boston batters at bay.

Jon Lester held his own against the 2010 NL Cy Young winner, but a two-run double by Raul Ibanez in the seventh put the Phils on top 2-1. Ryan Howard added a groundout RBI in the eighth, providing more than enough insurance for Halladay, as Philadelphia took the first game of the series 3-1. Halladay pitched a complete game, surrendering just five hits while striking out eight.

Game 2
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Boston 0 3 0 Box Score
Philadelphia 1 9 0  
WP: Cliff Lee LP: Bobby Jenks
Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (CG, SHO, 3 H, 6 K)
Simulation BA Leaders
Player BA
Polanco .294
Ruiz .289
Youkilis .284

Lee validated his $120 million deal by submitting a gem to his already impressive postseason résumé, shutting out the Red Sox in a 1-0 victory as Philadelphia marched out to a two-game series lead.

Clay Buchholz was just as electrifying, going seven innings without conceding a run. However, setup man Jenks yielded hits to Howard and Placido Polanco in the eighth, resulting in a go-ahead RBI single from Ibanez. Through two games, the Red Sox roster has managed just eight hits against the Philadelphia pitching staff.

Game 3
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Boston 8 14 0 Box Score
Philadelphia 3 10 1  
WP: John Lackey LP: Cole Hamels
Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (4-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI)

The Boston bats finally awoke from their series slumber to light up the scoreboard for eight runs, as the Red Sox took Game 3 by a score of 8-3. Offseason acquisition Crawford was the catalyst for the offensive attack, belting two bombs and driving in four runs. Pedroia added three RBI of his own, and Sox starter John Lackey went the distance, allowing just three runs on the day.

While historically assertive in the postseason, Philadelphia pitcher Cole Hamels got shellacked for six runs on 11 hits in just five innings of work.

Game 4
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Philadelphia 8 11 0 Box Score
Boston 2 9 0  
WP: Roy Oswalt LP: Josh Beckett
Player of the Game: Placido Polanco (3-for-4, 3 RBI)
The Fantastic 4
Philadelphia’s Starting Four ERA (Avg.)
Halladay 4.23
Lee 2.96
Hamels 4.58
Oswalt 3.08

A barrage of line drives and walks correlated with success for Charlie Manuel’s squad, as Philadelphia’s 8-2 thrashing left the Phillies one game away from the title. Sox starter Josh Beckett was knocked out early, giving up six hits and issuing four walks in four innings. Third baseman Polanco contributed three hits and three RBI to spur Philly, with Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz each adding two hits to the cause.

Roy Oswalt shut down the Sox for eight innings, limiting Boston to two runs and striking out 10. While the pitching has been relatively solid, Boston’s lineup has been atrocious, as Kevin Youkilis (.059), J.D. Drew (.111) and Ortiz (hitless) have struggled mightily.

Game 5
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Philadelphia 3 7 0 Box Score
Boston 4 10 0  
WP: Bobby Jenks LP: Roy Halladay
Player of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (2-for-5, game-winning RBI)

Boston evoked memories of its 2004 ALCS comeback with an extra-inning walk-off hit to avoid elimination in Game 5. A rematch of Game 1’s epic showdown between Halladay and Lester did not disappoint, as both men were still standing on the mound in the ninth inning.

A Crawford two-run single and a Youkilis double translated into a three-run third for the Sox, but Halladay survived the early-inning threat. The Phils managed a run off of a wild pitch in the fourth, and a Polanco single brought home Rollins in the sixth. But heading into the ninth, Boston led by a count of 3-2. Yet down to their last out, Ruiz lined a single to center off Lester to tie the game.

Nevertheless, the Sox would get the last laugh on this night, as hits from Marco Scutaro and Jacoby Ellsbury gave Pedroia a chance to be a hero. The former MVP obliged, sending a ground ball into right field as Boston came back to win the ball game 4-3.

Game 6
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Boston 2 4 1 Box Score
Philadelphia 3 6 0  
WP: Cliff Lee LP: Clay Buchholz SV: Brad Lidge
Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (7.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K)
Series Wins
Team Total Series Wins (255 simulations)
Boston 67
Philadelphia 188

There’s much rejoicing in the City of Brotherly Love, as Lee delivered another postseason masterpiece on the way to a 3-2 win, clinching the series for Philadelphia. Lee whiffed 10 batters in 7.2 innings of work, holding Boston to four hits and two runs. Making his first appearance of the series, Brad “Lights Out” Lidge worked an eventful ninth, surrendering a walk to the tying run Gonzalez before striking out Ortiz and Jed Lowrie.

Chase Utley paced the Philadelphia offense with a two-run single in the third, while Scutaro smacked a solo shot in the losing effort for Boston. Lee earned series MVP honors with 16 strikeouts in 16.2 innings to go along with an ERA of 1.08.

Create your own World Series Dream Team from WhatIfSports.com.

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2010 NLCS Preview and Prediction: Phillies Win NLCS in Six-Game Stunner

October 14, 2010 by  
Filed under Fan News

We all know, and will be reminded again throughout the NLCS, about the greatness of Roy Halladay and the precision of Roy Oswalt.

Experts and baseball analysts will pound it into your head how prominent the Phillies 1-2-3 punch is on the mound. My two-year-old nephew knows they are good.

The dynamic duo acquired in highly publicized trades before and during the season have allowed Ruben Amaro Jr. to enjoy his Monet moment. He, after all, helped create these October masterpieces.

As for San Francisco’s late-season transaction, their guy was an afterthought. He was page-two news on a front page bursting with big names and blockbuster deals that transpired during baseball’s 2010 season.

This wasn’t Cliff Lee to Seattle or Texas. Brian Cashman doesn’t bother with guys making under $5 million. A team wouldn’t sacrifice a prospect to gain his services in return. He’s not going to throw a no-hitter this October nor steal Derek Jeter‘s postseason moniker anytime soon.

Maybe you know his name, maybe you don’t.

Cody Ross was placed on waivers by the Florida Marlins in late August. A couple days later he was claimed by the Giants whose reported intention was to blockade divisional foe San Diego from adding him rather than bolster their own lineup. San Fran, at the time, really didn’t have a place for him in the outfield.

Ross was simply a pawn in the playoff chase chess game out West.

 

Story continues below

NLCS 1001 Simulations of Best-of-Seven Series
Matchup Win% 4-Games% 5-Games% 6-Games% 7-Games%
San Francisco 33 2 8 10 13
Philadelphia 66 12 17 21 16

Using our MLB simulation engine we “played” the NLCS Best-of-seven series 1,001 times.

In the table above you will find each team’s chances of advancing to the World Series and how often they win in four, five, six or seven games. As you can see, the most likely scenario is the Phillies beating the Giants in six games 21 percent of the time.

You can view the box scores and summaries of Philadelphia’s six-game series win below.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

This is nothing new for the well-traveled fifth-year veteran who has traded his Dodgers blues for Cincinnati red and Florida fish all in the same season.

But where it started, is where I started, back in 2003 with the Toledo Mud Hens. Cody played while I interned. Ross was a major part of the Tigers’ Triple-A offense that season.

He banged out 135 hits, 20 home runs, 61 ribbies and hit .287 for Toledo earning him a September call-up where he played in six games for the Tigs.

The Mud Hens fanbase truly embraced Cody in ’03. He even reached the pinnacle of having the franchise create and promote his bobblehead.

That’s respect.

“Cody Ross quickly became a fan favorite during his time in Toledo,” public relations director and Mud Hens broadcaster Jason Griffin said. “It was evident very early that he was destined to be a quality major leaguer. It is fun to watch him do well in the playoffs.”

We fast-forward seven years, past the trades for players to be named and get over the Giants’ chess match with the Padres and focus on what Ross has meant to this San Fran team five games into the postseason.

Batting eighth in Game 1 of the NLDS, he reached base twice and collected one of only five Giants hits. It proved to be a big one because his single to left drove in the only run of the game.

Then in Game 4, when Derek Lowe once again looked unhittable, Ross provided the offensive punch his team needed. Trailing 1-0 in the sixth, the guy hitting before the pitcher smacked a solo shot to left to tie the game at 1-1.

Ross wasn’t done.

An inning later, after the Giants rallied to tie the game at 3-3, Ross delivered again with a single scoring the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run.

Talk about your pawn stars.

It should be noted the Marlins were interested in keeping Ross, but the front office was engrossed in promoting outfielder Cameron Maybin to get him some playing time when the rosters expanded.

So, in a way, Ross has Maybin to thank for his opportunity this October.

And, in a weird twist, Ross and Maybin both have the Tigers to thank for drafting them.

It’s transactional irony worthy of the front page.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Below is a game-by-game summary and related box score of our simulation’s predicted results.

Game 1 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Giants 5 13 1 Box Score
Phillies 3 10 0 Simulate Game
WP: Tim Lincecum LP: Roy Halladay
Player of the Game: Tim Lincecum: 8 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 7 K
NLCS Boppers
Player HRs in NLCS (Avg.)
Burrell 1.3
Howard 1.1
Werth 1.0

 

Tim Lincecum has been known to do it with his arm, but with his stick?

In 246 career at-bats, “The Freak” has never hit a home run for the Giants. That was until he went deep in Game 1’s simulation of the NLCS. The chances of a Lincecum long-ball are so rare I won’t waste your time with all the zeroes following the decimal.

To make the feat even greater, the Giants’ No. 1 starter hit the homer in the top of the eighth inning to give his team a 5-3 lead. Some good wood to match his lights-out effort on the mound, allowing three ERs in eight innings.

Roy Halladay lasted seven innings allowing four earn runs on 11 hits. It was a far cry from his dominant performance against the Reds in the NLDS.

The Giants break serve and take Game 1 of the NLCS winning 5-3.

 

Game 2 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Giants 3 6 0 Box Score
Phillies 2 7 0 Simulate Game
WP: Matt Cain LP: Cole Hamels
Player of the Game: Matt Cain: 9 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 9 K

 

We knew the pitching matchups in this series would be worth the price of admission.

Okay, maybe not. But we were hip to the fact that hitters would play second fiddle to the hurlers.

Matt Cain would go the distance, while Cole Hamels’ five walks would come back to haunt him in Game 2.

Juan Uribe‘s ground-rule double in the sixth tacked on an insurance run the Giants would need in the ninth.

Cain, cruising to that point, allowed Ryan Howard to take him deep. The solo shot cut the San Fran lead to one, but MC finished what he started and got pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney to fly out and end it.

The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series as both teams head to the West Coast.

Game 3 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Phillies 5 12 0 Simulate Game
Giants 1 4 0 Box Score
WP: Roy Oswalt LP: Jonathan Sanchez
Player of the Game: Roy Oswalt: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 12 K
NLCS Top BA
Player BA in NLCS (Avg.)
Polanco .299
Ruiz .298
Werth .295

 

The Phillies found themselves in one of those must-win situations.

Roy Oswalt answered the call. Boy, I’m sure Charlie Manuel is stoked (as stoked as Manuel can get) that Ruben Amaro Jr. pulled the trigger with the Astros to bring the stud pitcher to Philly.

Oswalt went eight strong, striking out 12, while only allowing one Giants runner to cross home.

San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez got roughed up in Game 3 serving up five earned runs in his eight innings on the hill.

Chase Utley was the main dude at the plate for the Phillies going 3-5 with two RBI.

Philadelphia has life in the NLCS winning Game 3, 5-1.

 

Game 4 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Phillies 6 11 0 Simulate Game
Giants 0 6 1 Box Score
WP: Roy Halladay LP: Madison Bumgarner
Player of the Game: Roy Halladay: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 10 K

 

The Giants elected to start the rookie in Game 4 against Roy Halladay. Now, they may be regretting it.

Bumgarner couldn’t get out of the fifth inning before he allowed six runs on nine hits.

That’s all Roy Halladay would need to bounce back from a rough outing in Game 1. Though he did allow five hits, the Phillies ace did not give up a run in his eight innings of work.

Jose Contreras came on in the ninth to seal up the 6-0 victory.

Jimmy Rollins provided the offense with his 2-4, three RBI and HR effort at the dish.

The Phillies break back to even the series at two all heading into Game 5.

 

Game 5 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Phillies 7 15 0 Simulate Game
Giants 2 10 0 Box Score
WP: Cole Hamels LP: Tim Lincecum
Player of the Game: Cole Hamels: 8 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 5 K
NLCS Top ERA
Player ERA in NLCS (Avg.)
Oswalt 2.80
Halladay 3.41
Lincecum 4.20

 

Except for a turbulent bottom of the third, Cole Hamels was a San Francisco treat to watch.

The Phillies took a commanding 3-2 series lead behind the southpaw’s eight innings of work. Although he did allow nine hits on the evening, Hamels controlled the bleeding by holding the Giants to two runs.

Tim Lincecum and the Giants fell behind 4-0 in the first and could never recover. Sergio Romo allowed three more runs in relief to hand the away team a 7-2 win.

The Phillies now return to Philly up 3-2 and in prime position to close out the NLCS in front of a home crowd.

 

Game 6 NLCS
Teams R H E WIS Interactive
Giants 3 6 0 Box Score
Phillies 4 8 1 Simulate Game
WP: Brad Lidge LP: Brian Wilson
Player of the Game: Placido Polanco: GW RBI in bottom of ninth

 

The guy with the best batting average in the series picked the right time to collect his first hit of the night.

Placido Polanco’s bottom-of-the-ninth single to right off Giants closer Brian Wilson sent Carlos Ruiz home as the Phillies win the NLCS in dramatic fashion.

The Phillies head to the World Series with a 4-3 win over the Giants.

Moments prior to Polanco’s game-winner, Giants manager Bruce Bochy was ejected from the game for arguing a ball four call to Shane Victorino. The walk sent Ruiz to third.

The Giants did own a 3-2 lead in the eighth, but Jimmy Rollins connected off of reliever Ramon Ramirez sending a single to right and knocking in Chase Utley to tie the game.

Brad Lidge, seeing his first action of the series, struck out the side in the top of the ninth before the drama unfolded in the ninth.

The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies are headed to the World Series with a 4-2 series win over the San Francisco Giants.

Check out the ALCS preview from WhatIfSports.com.

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MLB Power Rankings 9/14/09

September 14, 2009 by  
Filed under Fan News

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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its award-winning baseball simulation engine to present the most comprehensive and unbiased ranking possible of all 30 teams in baseball. To come up with the rankings, using only their statistical performance to date this season, each team is simulated against every other team 100 times – so that all five pitchers in the current rotation start ten times at each location. Rosters, rotations and stats are up-to-date through Saturday.

(Note: This means that if a pitcher who was in the rotation was recently put on the DL, he will not be included in the simulations. This is true of position players as well, but an injury to a position player will usually have a lesser impact on the weekly results.)

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
1. Los Angeles Dodgers +1 62.8 5.2 3.9
2. New York Yankees -1 62.1 5.9 4.5
3. Los Angeles Angels 59.3 5.6 4.4
4. Philadelphia Phillies +4 58.4 5.3 4.5
5. St. Louis Cardinals -1 58.3 4.7 3.9
6. Texas Rangers +3 57.1 5.1 4.5
7. Boston Red Sox +3 56.7 5.2 4.6
8. Colorado Rockies -1 56.2 5.2 4.4
9. Tampa Bay Rays -4 56.2 5.3 4.6
10. San Francisco Giants -4 55.3 4.0 3.6
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
11. Minnesota Twins 54.9 4.9 4.4
12. Florida Marlins +2 53.1 5.0 4.7
13. Atlanta Braves -1 53.0 4.7 4.4
14. Chicago Cubs +1 49.2 4.7 4.7
15. Detroit Tigers +2 48.5 4.7 4.9
16. Kansas City Royals +13 47.9 4.1 4.4
17. Toronto Blue Jays -4 47.8 4.8 5.0
18. Milwaukee Brewers 46.5 5.1 5.3
19. Seattle Mariners +1 45.9 4.2 4.8
20. Cleveland Indians +5 45.6 4.9 5.4
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
21. Arizona Diamondbacks -5 45.3 4.7 5.1
22. Houston Astros -1 44.8 4.5 5.0
23. New York Mets -4 44.5 4.9 5.5
24. Oakland Athletics -1 44.3 4.4 4.9
25. Chicago White Sox -3 44.0 4.4 5.0
26. Washington Nationals 41.2 4.7 5.8
27. Pittsburgh Pirates -3 40.8 4.3 5.2
28. Cincinnati Reds -1 40.7 4.3 5.2
29. San Diego Padres -1 40.3 4.1 5.1
30. Baltimore Orioles 39.2 4.7 5.9

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