5 Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Who Will Help the Team in 2014

Philadelphia Phillies fans are getting a glimpse at the future with the arrival of Cody Asche and Ethan Martin to the majors. Asche made his debut at third base on Wednesday night, while Martin is set to make his first career start Friday against the Braves.

For Phillies fans, the arrival of young talent to the ballclub is a welcome sight. With the team eight games below .500, the 2013 season is a lost cause, and it is time to start looking toward the future.

Asche and Martin have a chance to make an impact now, but there are more players sitting in the farm system who have a chance to shine for the Phillies in 2014 and beyond.

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Twitter Reacts to Philadelphia Phillies’ Lack of 2013 MLB Trade Deadline Deals

The 2013 MLB trade deadline has passed, and the Philadelphia Phillies look very much like they did in the days before as general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. failed to pull the trigger on any deals.

With the Phillies in the midst of a slump that has them seven games below .500, fans were expecting—if not demanding—that the team begin its rebuilding process.

Instead, Amaro chose to stand pat, and Phillies fans took to Twitter to express their dissatisfaction with the decision.

The Phillies missed out on a golden opportunity to kick-start the rebuilding process.

The disconcerting part for Phillies fans is that there were trade options available up until the deadline.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the New York Yankees were interested in third baseman Michael Young and catcher Carlos Ruiz but were turned away because, “Amaro didn’t feel like he had an adequate replacement to start at catcher for the Phillies.”

If true, that statement suggests that the Phillies could be looking to re-sign Ruiz in the offseason. It also suggests that the organization is not ready to call on either of its highly touted catching prospects in Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle.

With Ruiz, the team knows what it has: an aging catcher—Ruiz turns 35 in January—who has lost nearly all of his power. Ruiz has just one home run this season, and according to baseball-reference.com, his slugging percentage has dropped from a career-best .540 last year to just .293 this season.

Amaro may be right in that there were no other options at catcher for this season.

Joseph hasn’t played a game since July 11 as he deals with nagging injuries, and Valle is hitting just .211 in 72 games at AA Reading, according to baseball-reference.com.

But what does it matter? The team has no chance of competing this year no matter who sets up behind home plate.

Getting a prospect—even a marginal one—seems like a better option than hanging on to Ruiz.

Erik Kratz would be an acceptable replacement for the rest of this year, and if the team has to sign a catcher on a one-year deal for 2014, it is still a better option than locking up Ruiz to an extension.

Not trading Ruiz was a mistake, but not trading Young was even worse. One fan went so far as to call it an “embarassment.”

Cody Asche, who got his first career major league start for the Phillies on Thursday night, is ready to become the team’s everyday third baseman. He has hit at every level of the minor leagues, including hitting .295 with 15 home runs at AAA Lehigh Valley this year, per baseball-reference.com. 

Asche is also a better defensive option than Young, who according to baseball-reference.com, has allowed 16 runs above average with his poor defense at the hot corner.

There is no need for Young in 2014. He will turn 37 years old this year, and no major league team is going to bring him in as anything other than a platoon player or veteran pinch hitter.

The Phillies, according to Heyman‘s piece, had an opportunity to rid themselves of his contract and get a prospect in return. Instead, the team will get nothing for him when he walks away at the end of his contract.

Amaro Jr. is overvaluing his current roster, just as he did before the season began. When he should be looking towards the future, Amaro continues to look towards his players’ past performances, leaving fans with very little hope for the club’s future.

It’s that kind of thinking that put the Phillies into the position to be sellers in the first place, and it’s that kind of thinking that will keep the team from contending for the foreseeable future.

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Jonathan Papelbon and Others the Phillies Should Move Before Trade Deadline

It’s time for the Philadelphia Phillies to give up on 2013 and start building towards the future. With the team sitting three games under .500 and eight games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has some tough choices to make in the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline.

The Phillies on-field performance has made one decision easy: the team has to sell.

That doesn’t mean the Phillies have to trade away all of their stars. Cliff Lee, who the Phillies traded once before, is too important to the team’s future to send away. The same goes for Chase Utley, a player in the final year of his contract, but who is still one of the team’s most reliable position players.

But there are still some high-profile players who could fetch a decent price at the trade deadline. Three players on the current roster, including closer Jonathan Papelbon, shouldn’t fit into the team’s rebuilding plans and have to go before July 31.

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon and his $50 million contract don’t make sense for this team. If the Phillies were still contenders, spending for a top-flight closer would make sense. But the Phillies aren’t close to contending this year, and part of what’s holding the team back is Papelbon’s contact.

Unfortunately that same contract could make trading him a very tricky proposition according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

“He’s just not that valuable with that contract,” says one AL exec. “If the Phillies want premium players back, they’d have to take half the contract [which has two years, worth $26 million, remaining, plus a vesting $13 million option]. I don’t see any team giving up an A-list prospect and taking that entire contract. You’d be taking the worst two or three years of a bad deal and giving them a premium prospect. That just doesn’t make sense.”

The Phillies are going to have to eat part of Papelbon’s contract at some point, unless the rebuilding process includes paying a 35-year-old closer $13 million in 2016. The contract was bad when they signed it, and it’s just going to get worse over the next three seasons.

Even though he has blown five saves this year, Papelbon is still holding a 2.27 ERA, his lowest since 2009. If the Phillies do eat part of his contract, $6-7 million per year is a much easier pill to swallow for one of the best late-inning relievers in baseball.

Trading Papelbon not only could bring some bright prospects in return, but it would free up some money to improve an otherwise disappointing bullpen. As long as Papelbon’s contract is on the books, the Phillies are unlikely to get the kind of pitchers they need to hand him a ninth inning lead.

Michael Young

There is no way the Phillies are bringing Michael Young back for another season in 2014, so trading him now is an easy decision. Young has been a solid, dependable hitter this season, carrying a .280 batting average and .751 OPS through 94 games, but his replacement is sitting in AAA, and Young could command the highest price of any player not named Cliff Lee.

Young can play any infield position and would make a passable designated hitter for an American League club. His salary is also minimal, thanks to the Rangers, who are picking up $10 million of his $16 million check this season.

The good news for the Phillies is there seems to be genuine interest in the veteran player. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports that both the Yankees and Red Sox are interested in him. Young would make either of these teams better, but the Yankees make the most sense with four infielders currently sitting on the disabled list.   

Even if the Phillies get pennies on the dollar for him, moving Young is addition by subtraction. Trading him opens up a spot on the major league roster for Cody Asche, who is hitting .294 with 12 home runs and 60 RBI through 99 games this season for AAA Lehigh Valley. Asche is ready for the majors, and calling him up for the final two months would be the perfect way to ease him into a starting role in Philadelphia.

Carlos Ruiz

The Phillies really should have cut ties with Ruiz last season when he was at the top of his game, but like his slugging percentage, Ruiz’s trade value has sunk this season. Just look at Ruiz’s stats, according to baseball-reference.com, compared to a year ago:

2012: .325 BA, .540 SLG, .935 OPS
2013: .252 BA, .280 SLG, .581 OPS

That said, Ruiz is hitting .350 with an .801 OPS this season against left-handed pitching, according to fangraphs.com. He still has value as a platoon catcher, which is the role he is better suited for at this point in his career.

FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal thinks the Phillies may hold on to Ruiz because he has “fan identification” as one of the team’s most popular players.

Keeping him would be a costly mistake, though, and hopefully the front office understands this.

He may not command the same price that he would have last season, but trading Ruiz now is still the best option. With Erik Kratz taking at-bats away from him on a regular basis, and Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle waiting in the minors, re-signing Ruiz after this season would be a mistake.  

Ruiz, along with Papelbon and Young, needs to be traded at the deadline. All three have value to contending teams, but are worthless to a Phillies organization that is in need of a rebuild. If Ruben Amaro and his staff are smart, none of these players will be wearing a Phillies uniform on August 1.

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5 Lessons Learned from Cliff Lee’s 1st Half

After a stellar start to the season, Cliff Lee is headed to New York to represent the  Philadelphia Phillies in the 2013 MLB All-Star Game. Owner of a 10-3 record and a 2.86 ERA, Lee has been Philadelphia’s best player so far this season and continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game.

But there’s more to Lee than wins and losses. He’s the team’s ace, their workhorse, and if the Phillies are smart, the key piece that will keep them in the hunt for October.

Lee’s first 19 starts tell us a lot about the player and about this Phillies team moving forward.

 

Cliff Lee is not Roy Halladay

Phillies fans watched in horror as the once mighty Roy Halladay became a shell of his former self this year, posting an ERA of 8.65 before hitting the disabled list in early May.

Halladay is only 15 months older than Lee, but fans should not expect the same rapid decline out of the veteran left-hander.

Like Halladay, Lee’s fastball velocity has declined this year. The difference is Lee’s heater has actually become more effective according to Fangraphs.

With a Pitch Value of 23.6, Lee’s fastball is more than six points from last season. PITCHf/x calculates that per every 100 pitches, Lee’s fastball is saving 2.82 runs more than an average pitch and twice as effective as it has been at any other point in his career.

When he is on his game, Lee paints the corners with a variety of fastballs, most of which are coming in between 89-91 mph. Yet he is able to keep hitters off-balance in a way that Halladay could not.

Watch the footage from Lee’s stellar performance against the Minnesota Twins from June 13th to see how effective he is at locating his fastball to get hitters out.

It’s not an overpowering pitch, but mixed with his good curveball and changeup, it’s an effective pitch that will keep him producing for years to come.

 

Cliff Lee is unbeatable with run support

Cliff Lee is the same pitcher he was last year, but the difference between 2012 and 2013 has come down to run support.

In 14 of his 19 starts this year, the Phillies’ offense has scored at least three runs, according to data from baseball-reference.com. In his three losses combined, he has received exactly one run in support.

There is a big difference between pitching with a lead and pitching to keep the game close, and Lee is much better when pitching with a lead. 

Watch the highlights from the team’s loss to the Indians from May 1. More than once the offense comes up empty with runners in scoring position, and as a result, Lee is pitching from behind the whole game and ends up leaving pitches out over the plate as he tries to overcompensate by making perfect pitches.

If the offense is there, it takes the pressure off Lee and completely changes the way he approaches a hitter.

 

The Phillies need Lee to be a workhorse

Cliff Lee has been brilliant all season, but the rest of the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Six other starting pitchers and a rotating cast of characters in the bullpen have combined to go 36-44 with a 4.38 ERA, according to numbers from baseball-reference.com

Because the bullpen has been such a question mark, and because the team’s other starting pitchers have struggled with inconsistency, the Phillies need Lee to pitch deep into every game he starts.

In his 19 starts this year, Lee is averaging about 7.1 innings. Only three times has he failed to make it seven full innings, and only once has been pulled before completing six. Lee’s longevity might be the only thing saving the otherwise mediocre pitching staff.

According to baseball-reference.com, Phillies starters are averaging just 5.2 innings the day before Lee starts. The night after Lee pitches, starters are averaging 6.2 innings per game.

If you do the math, that means Lee has saved the bullpen nearly 50 innings of work compared to those starting around him. That is a big deal for a team that is still searching for answers at the back end of the bullpen.

 

Lee throws too many strikes

Every pitcher wants to throw strikes, but Cliff Lee takes that to another level, and sometimes it is too his detriment.

As ESPN’s Jayson Stark pointed out, Lee pounded the strike zone in Wednesday night’s loss to the Washington Nationals.

The problem is he lost.

In his last two starts Lee is 0-1 with a no decision. He did not allow a walk in either game, but he was knocked around for 17 hits. Opponents were batting more than .300 against him in those two starts, according to baseball-reference.com.

Lee’s best game of the season was his nine-inning shutout against the Marlins on May 22. He was not perfect that night, allowing a pair of walks and even hitting a batter. But by keeping pitches out of the strike zone, he kept hitters off-balance and only gave up three hits.

In his three losses, Lee has given up an average of 8.3 hits compared to just 5.1 in his wins. Walking dangerous hitters takes the bat out of their hands and limits the damage they can do. Lee gave up four home runs on Wednesday night. By walking just one of those hitters he could have changed the course of the game.

 

Philadelphia can’t compete without him

This should go without saying, but the Phillies need Cliff Lee on the roster to be competitive. Yet many fans and experts assume Lee will be gone before the trade deadline.

Unless the Phillies get genuine major league talent in return, trading him makes no sense.

According to FanGraphs.com, Lee has a WAR of 3.1 this season. Both ZiPS and Steamer project him to finish the year with a WAR over 5.0, meaning the Phillies would be five games worse at the end of the season than they would with him.

If the Phillies are going to make a playoff run this year, Lee is too valuable to give up. The two victories he is worth between now and the end of the season could be the difference between playing in October and missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

As Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reported, Lee is not on the market, no matter how badly other teams want him.

That should not change going forward because Cliff Lee is the key to the Phillies future.

 

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Phillies Fall to Padres 4-3 in Extra Innings

The Philadelphia Phillies fell to the San Diego Padres 4-3 in extra innings Monday night at Petco Park. 

Justin De Fratus gave up the game winning hit to Kyle Blanks in the bottom of the 10th inning to drop the Philies to 36-41 on the season. 

The Phillies had a commanding 3-0 lead entering the ninth inning, but Charlie Manuel made some questionable decisions that ultimately cost his team the lead. 

Cliff Lee pitched a shutout through eight innings but was clearly gassed. Still, Manuel left him in the game for the ninth inning, and it proved costly. 

Lee faced two hitters and failed to record an out before Manuel made the switch to Jonathan Papelbon. 

The Phillies closer gave up a two-run single to Kyle Blanks. 

Blanks would eventually make it to third base where he would score on a passed ball that tied the game and forced extra innings. 

The Phillies threatened in the 10th, with Jimmy Rollins reaching third base with one out. Manuel elected to leave Michael Young in to face Brad Brach instead of pinch-hitting with Ryan Howard or Laynce Nix, and Young proceeded to strike out on three pitches. Domonic Brown would then fly out to center to end the threat. 

Justin De Fratus would enter in the bottom of the 10th, and he clearly did not have it. Walking two batters and hitting another before giving up the game winning hit to Blanks. 

For a Phillies team that has struggled all season, this was a crushing defeat and one that will surely have everyone in Philadelphia talking on Tuesday morning. 

Charlie Manuel deserves a lot of the blame for the way this game ended. As he has done so many times before, Manuel left his starter go out for the ninth inning, despite looking tired.

And with Jonathan Papelbon struggling, the last thing he needed was to enter a game with the tying run coming to the plate. This was the perfect opportunity to get him a confidence-building save, and instead he was forced into another situation with no room for error. 

Tonight’s game was just a microcosm of the Phillies season so far: a great starting pitching effort wasted by the manager and his shaky bullpen. 

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