Exposing What Has Changed for Phillies’ Roy Halladay During Recent Tailspin

There’s clearly something wrong with Roy Halladay. Your eyes say so, and so do the gory numbers.

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ veteran right-hander has made two starts so far in 2013, and neither of them have been good. His totals: 7.1 innings pitched, 12 hits, six walks, three home runs, one hit batsman and two wild pitches.

Doc Halladay’s ERA after two starts is 14.73. His WHIP is 2.46. His confidence, meanwhile, has seen better days.

“This is a game of failure and I’ve had my fair share,” said Halladay after Monday’s beating at the hands of the New York Mets, via CSNPhilly.com. “Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s [rear]. I’ve been a horse’s [rear] for a little while. It’s something I’ve dealt with in the past and I think I can overcome.”

Maybe Halladay’s right, but he shouldn’t hold out hope of recapturing his old dominant ways from 2010 and 2011. It looks like that ship has sailed.

One way you can tell is by looking at Halladay’s velocity. It’s been at the center of all the “What’s wrong with Doc?” talk both in the early goings this season and most of last season, and the numbers reveal a clear decline that’s continuing so far this year.

To the right is a look at Halladay’s average sinker (i.e. two-seamer) and cutter velocity from 2010 until now, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

The precise velocity numbers are going to differ depending on which site you consult. FanGraphs, for example, offers its own PITCHf/x data and data from Baseball Info Solutions. That noted, the trend is the same there: Halladay’s velocity is clearly down.

One acceptable objection to this data is that Halladay’s in the same boat as every other pitcher this time of year—he’s still building arm strength. Once he has it, his velocity will be there.

Fair enough, so let’s narrow things down a little and compare Halladay’s average sinker and cutter velocity from his first two starts this year to his average sinker and cutter velocity from 2011 and 2012 (there doesn’t appear to be any record for his first start in 2010, so we’ll skip that year).

Here you can see that Halladay had about the same kind of zip on his sinker and cutter on Monday night against the Mets that he did in his first start last year. That’s a revelation that’s slightly more encouraging than the above revelation. 

The key word there, however, is “slightly.”

The velocity readings here are still down relative to where Halladay was in 2011, a year in which he finished second in the National League Cy Young balloting on the strength of a 19-6 record and a 2.35 ERA. However, you’ll notice by comparing the two graphs that his final velocity readings for 2011 really weren’t that far off from his early-April velocity readings

You can see by comparing the two graphs that Halladay’s velocity didn’t budge much throughout the 2012 season either. His player card on BrooksBaseball.net will show that he added some velocity in May, but then he came down with that shoulder injury that sidelined him through mid-July and effectively killed his quest to regain his velocity.

That’s both encouraging and discouraging at the same time.

It’s encouraging because Halladay may have finished last season with respectable velocity readings had he not hurt his shoulder, which means he might be able to ramp up his velocity this year if his shoulder behaves.

It’s discouraging, however, because it’s impossible to ignore the correlation between Halladay’s increasing velocity in May last year and his sudden shoulder injury. The fact that he didn’t ramp up his velocity the rest of the year could be taken as a sign that his shoulder can now only handle so much.

The radar gun readings aren’t the only thing that makes you wonder about Halladay’s shoulder. 

If you’ve been paying attention to the Halladay doom watch, you’ll know that low velocity readings aren’t the only cause for concern around the campfire. There’s also been talk about his arm slot, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted after Halladay’s first start against the Atlanta Braves.

Here’s where I can’t resort to fancy graphics to show you what’s going on, because, well, the fancy graphics I want to show you don’t belong to me. The best I can do is point you in the right direction.

What I want you to do is open up three tabs: One for Halladay’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, one for a start he made against the Atlanta Braves last September 22, and one for his start against the Mets on Monday night. All three starts were at Citizens Bank Park, so we’re talking about the same mound being in play.

Now I want you to scroll down on each one to the graphs titled “Release Point.” If you look at the vertical location, you’ll notice that the height of Halladay’s release point goes from above six feet, to right about at six feet to below six feet.

If you can see that, then you can see what all the fuss is about. Halladay is throwing from a different arm slot, and it is lower.

One explanation for this is the shoulder injury Halladay suffered last year. It could also be intentional, which is certainly possible seeing as how there was a report from Todd Zolecki of MLB.com in March that Halladay was working to “fix some things with his delivery.” 

Regardless of the explanation, we know we’re watching a different Doc. He’s throwing differently, and he’s not throwing hard.

As for deception, well, consider the following. It’s a look at how hitters have performed against Halladay’s four primary pitches (sinker, cutter, curveball, splitter/split-change) since 2010, including his first two starts this year. If you don’t know what ISO is, it stands for Isolated Power and it’s essentially a slugging percentage that doesn’t take singles into account.

You can see that the slow stuff is working just fine in the early goings. Halladay’s only given up a couple hits on his primary off-speed pitches, and it’s worth noting that they’re responsible for 11 of his 12 strikeouts on the young season.

But the hard stuff? Not so much. A look back at the three homers Halladay has given up can give us a clue as to why that is.

The following links will take you over to MLB.com for the video highlights, but I’m going to provide some screencaps and some commentary along the way.

For starters, take a look at the pitch that Justin Upton launched for a homer off Halladay.

You can see that Erik Kratz set up low and inside for what looked like a cutter meant to freeze Upton for strike three. Instead, watch how the pitch floated over the middle of the plate—”no bueno” territory for any pitcher.

Granted, at least the pitch was a low one. Halladay may have gotten away with it if he was facing a lesser hitter. But he was facing a very good, very hot hitter, and said hitter didn’t miss.

Now take a look back at the ball that Evan Gattis sent out of the yard. While watching the video, look where Kratz sets up and then watch where the pitch ends up.

You’ll see that Kratz set up low and away for a pitch on the black, but that the pitch Halladay threw was an 88-mile-per-hour heater with virtually no movement that ended up right at Gattis‘ belt on the inside part of the plate. 

That’s the kind of mistake you can make if you’re throwing 98 MPH, but not 88. Sure enough, Gattis murdered it.

And lastly, check out the pitch that John Buck hit out of the yard on Monday night. Once again, watch where the catcher set up and where the pitch went.

Humberto Quintero set up on the outside corner to receive the pitch, and Halladay at least got the ball to the right side of the plate. However, he left it a little higher than Buck’s knees, and Buck put a very good swing on it for a home run to the opposite field.

So, of the three homers Halladay has given up this year, it’s fair to say that all three came on mistake pitches.

That would be forgivable if this was 2010 or 2011, but it’s not so forgivable now, because A) we know that Halladay isn’t making few mistakes and B) he’s clearly not going to be able to get away with the ones he does make.

Halladay’s command has been all over the place thus far. He’s walked six men in 7.1 innings, and FanGraphs‘ plate discipline data shows that, not surprisingly, he’s throwing fewer pitches inside the strike zone (look at Zone%). What’s worse is that the three pitches we just looked at show that Halladay’s command within the strike zone is lacking, and that, again, he just doesn’t have the stuff to get away with mistakes.

And that, obviously, is not the Halladay we all used to know and love. The Halladay we all knew and loved had some of the best pinpoint control in the business, not to mention stuff that had a fair amount of zip and absolutely no regard for the laws of physics.

If you’re an optimist, you see that Halladay is working with a new release point and that he’s still working out the kinks. He didn’t get much of a spring training, after all, as he was bothered by an illness and had to labor through some short outings.

But it’s nigh impossible to be anything other than realistic about what’s going on. Halladay looked like a ruined pitcher last season when he posted a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts after coming back from the disabled list in July, and he looks like even more of a ruined pitcher now.

That’s my smarty-pants assessment of what’s become of Halladay. My not-so-smarty-pants assessment of him can be summed up with two words that I think everyone will agree with: This sucks.

 

Note: Special thanks to BrooksBaseball.net for the data.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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It’s Not Too Early for Philadelphia Phillies to Fear the Worst with Roy Halladay

Wednesday was Roy Halladay‘s chance to put all the concerns to rest. All he had to do was pitch well against the Atlanta Braves, and the Philadelphia Phillies could have breathed a collective sigh of relief.

That didn’t happen.

Instead of giving the Phillies and their fans reasons to relax, Halladay gave them reasons to gather around the giant panic button (if there is one) in the heart of Philadelphia.

The veteran right-hander’s 2013 debut saw him last only three-and-a-third innings and surrender five earned runs on six hits and three walks. Two of the hits he gave up left the ballpark: one off the bat of Justin Upton, and the other off the bat of Evan Gattis (the first of his career).

The bright side is that nine of the 10 outs Halladay recorded came by way of the strikeout. The not-so-bright side, obviously, is the fact that he only got 10 outs. 

Ordinarily, bad first starts like this one can be forgiven. They can certainly be forgotten if the pitcher who put up the stinker finds his way the rest of the season.

But this one? Those hopes of yours better not get too high.

It was clear early on that Halladay’s stuff was not going to be good. He was getting his hard stuff over the plate in the 87-90 miles-per-hour range, which is where he resided for most of 2012. Per FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity tumbled from 92.0 miles per hour in 2011 to 90.6 miles per hour, and his average cutter velocity dipped under the 90-MPH threshold as well.

An offseason’s worth of rest didn’t do Halladay’s velocity any good in spring training. David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News noted in early March that Halladay was sitting in the 86-88 range in an outing against the Washington Nationals.

It was always a possibility that Halladay’s velocity would return to him once the season began, but that didn’t happen.

What’s more, you have to wonder if Halladay’s velocity loss has gone to his head. As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer can vouch, Halladay barely used his hard stuff against the Braves on Wednesday:

This is another thing which hearkens back to what we saw from Halladay in 2012. With his velocity slipping, he resorted more to his curveball and his split-change. It was more of the same against the Braves.

Halladay’s off-speed stuff did look pretty good. It had more bite than his hard stuff, and he wouldn’t have been able to compile those nine strikeouts without it. And for what it’s worth, ESPN’s Jayson Stark noted on Twitter that Halladay’s the first pitcher to strike out nine batters in less than 3.2 innings in 98 years, so he did make a bit of history.

That’s an encouraging sign, as it serves as proof that Halladay’s arsenal isn’t completely depleted. 

But it’s only encouraging to a degree.

Pitchers need hard stuff to keep the strikes coming. Halladay moved away from his hard stuff on Wednesday and, sure enough, he didn’t throw that many strikes. Only 55 of his 95 pitches went for strikes, about 58 percent.

This from a guy who has a strike percentage of 68 over the last four seasons. Even while he was struggling through so much of 2012, Halladay still managed to throw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes. That’s up where the best strike-throwers in the business generally reside.

The writing on the wall says that Halladay isn’t going to be around the plate all that much without his hard stuff. That means he’s going to have to reestablish his confidence in it, and he may not be able to do that until his velocity returns to him.

Halladay certainly can’t just keep doing what he did against the Braves start after start. He’s not going to be able to just strike everyone out. He can try, mind you, but that sort of approach isn’t good for the pitch count, and hitters are going to get wise sooner or later (smart money’s on sooner).

The situation is bleak, but the obligatory question must be asked: Is there hope for Halladay?

As dire as things look right now, there’s always hope. Halladay’s stuff doesn’t look so good, but we’re talking about a guy who has one of the best minds for pitching of anybody in recent memory. If Greg Maddux could get by for so many years with mediocre velocity, then Halladay may be able to as well.

In addition, there is the reality that Halladay didn’t exactly enjoy a normal spring. He battled a stomach virus that kept him from getting some work in, and it could be that he’s still building himself up after having to deal with that.

But I wouldn’t go out and bet the farm on Halladay bouncing back and thrusting himself into the National League Cy Young Award race this season. Based on what we saw last year, in spring training and in his 2013 debut, we’re clearly looking at a pitcher who is not the guy he used to be. 

And that, obviously, is a disconcerting thought for the Phillies. Halladay’s dominance had a lot to do with their success in 2010 and 2011, and we saw last year that the team can only be so good without a dominant Halladay.

That was particularly true toward the end of the year, when the Phillies were close to full strength and making a push for the postseason. Halladay didn’t do his part, with a 5.88 ERA in his last nine starts.

The Phillies needed the old ace version of Halladay then, and they’re certainly going to need him this year, given the competition they’re facing in the NL East. The Nationals are legit, and the Braves look as good as advertised so far.

If Halladay doesn’t get himself squared away, the Phillies will be staring also-ran status in the face for a second year in a row.

Worse, their already-closing championship window is finally going to shut.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Where Will Phillies Turn for Outfielders If Bourn, Swisher Are Too Overpriced?

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the lookout for an outfielder, but their dilemma is that they’re looking for Ferraris on a Toyota budget.

According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. isn’t liking the price tags he’s seeing on the free-agent market:

phillies gm amaro on top free agent OFs: “we feel like the demands are north of where we want to be.” eying trades too

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 20, 2012

Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer crunched the numbers last week and determined that the Phillies’ payroll projects to be over $170 million after arbitration and other things, leaving them precious little money to spend on an outfielder if they want to avoid the $179 million luxury tax threshold.

With so little money at their disposal, here’s a look at bargain outfielders the Phillies can pursue on the free-agent and trade markets.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary and payroll information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Marco Scutaro Phillies Rumors: Is Giants Postseason Hero Philly’s Missing Link?

The Philadelphia Phillies had problems up and down their lineup for much of the 2012 season, but no position gave them headaches quite like third base.

The Phillies had a revolving cast of misfits at the hot corner for pretty much the entire season. Placido Polanco was too banged up to play for the most part, leaving Charlie Manuel no choice but to take what he could get from the likes of Kevin Frandsen and Ty Wigginton.

Ultimately, Phillies third basemen combined to post a .672 OPS, the lowest of any position on the team outside of pitcher. Phillies third basemen hit as many homers (five) as the team got from assorted pinch-hitters throughout the course of the season.

It’s fairly obvious that an upgrade is needed, especially now that Polanco and Wigginton have hit the road as free agents. The Phillies know this as well as anyone, and the word from Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com is that they’re going to leave no stone unturned this winter:

#Phillies “wide open” in their search for a third baseman. Could look at multi-position types like Scutaro/Keppinger as well as Youk, etc.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 13, 2012

Marco Scutaro, you say?

Very interesting…

The notion of the Phillies making a move for Scutaro this time last season wouldn’t have been all that intriguing. He was coming off a good, but not great, year with the Boston Red Sox, and his billing was as a mediocre everyday shortstop. And an aging one at that.

Much has changed over the last 12 months. Scutaro made quite the name for himself after he was traded by the Colorado Rockies to the San Francisco Giants in July, hitting .362 with an .859 OPS and 44 RBI in 61 games down the stretch before having a terrific postseason. He hit .328 during the Giants’ run through the playoffs, and he came up with big hit after big hit in the NLCS and the World Series.

Scutaro also got to show off his versatility in 2012, as he logged significant innings at third base, second base and shortstop.

Sounds like a guy the Phillies could use, don’t you think?

I’d have to say the answer is yes, but the idea of the Phillies making a play for Scutaro isn’t that much of a slam dunk. They’d be signing a good role player, but they wouldn’t be getting the same star who helped lead the Giants to a second World Series title in three years.

Scutaro isn’t as good as he was with the Giants down the stretch and in the postseason. In fact, he was having a downright poor season when he was on the Rockies, as he was hitting just .271/.324/.361 despite the fact he was playing half his games at Coors Field. 

Scutaro entered the 2012 season as a .270/.338/.389 hitter for his career. He had posted an OPS over .780 in two of the last three seasons, to be sure, but that seemed to be the high-water mark for his hitting abilities before he went on a tear upon joining the Giants.

I’m guessing you don’t need me to tell you that the tear Scutaro went on isn’t something we’re likely to see again, but I’ll say it anyway. He’s not going to post a .366 BABIP again seeing as how his career BABIP is right around .300, and he’s probably not going to be the same kind of clutch game-changer that he was down the stretch. He posted a higher RE24—a stat that essentially tracks how a given hitter altered run expectancies depending on the situations he faced—in his 61 games with the Giants than Miguel Cabrera did in his final 61 games.

Regardless of where he ends up, a fair expectation for Scutaro in 2013 will be for him to go back to being a slightly above-average offensive producer. His batting average will come close to .300, but his on-base and slugging totals will likely leave his OPS short of .800.

But if I’m Ruben Amaro, Jr., this is a thought that doesn’t concern me all that much. Not so long as I’m looking to find a third baseman who can merely do better than a .672 OPS, anyway. Any upgrade will do so long as said upgrade isn’t too expensive, as the Phillies already have over $136 million in salaries committed for the 2013 season, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

And Scutaro shouldn’t be too expensive. He’s likely looking for a raise on the $6 million he made in 2012, but he’s in no position to demand a contract worth seven figures per year. My best guess is that he’d settle for something like $8 million per year over two years, which sounds pretty reasonable for the Phillies seeing as how they spent over $10 million on Polanco and Wigginton in 2012.

In terms of value, the Phillies could expect to get an fWAR somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0 from Scutaro. That’s generally where he’s been ever since he became an everyday player in 2008, as the only year in which he’s ever posted an fWAR higher than 2.9 was in 2009, according to FanGraphs. The 2.5-3.0 range suits him because his hitting, defense and baserunning are only ever solid (i.e. close to “good” and short of “great”). 

But once again, we’re talking about a clear upgrade for the Phillies. Frandsen posted a decent 1.6 fWAR for them despite getting limited playing time, but Polanco managed a mere 0.6 fWAR and Wigginton had a -0.7 fWAR. 

And indeed, Scutaro also comes with certain attributes that can’t be quantified. It became clear enough during his time with the Giants that he’s got great intangibles. As the season went along and the Giants went deeper and deeper into the postseason, you started to hear more and more about what a great teammate and clubhouse presence Scutaro is, and he certainly led by example when he refused to stop playing after Matt Holliday obliterated him in Game 2 of the NLCS.

Scutaro has actually had this reputation for a while. While he was garnering acclaim for the role he was playing for the Giants in the playoffs, Alex Speier of WEEI.com noted that he was watching basically the same player that he got to know while Scutaro was on the Red Sox: “a player who managed to stay on the field and contribute even when fighting through injuries, a respected member of the clubhouse.”

The Phillies already seem to have a pretty good clubhouse atmosphere, but they’re just one of many teams that would love to have a guy like Scutaro join the fray. He’d assimilate into the new environment with little trouble, and his competitive drive would very much come in handy seeing as how the Phillies will be out to bounce back from a lost year in 2013.

Scutaro would surely endear himself to his teammates even more by occasionally stepping in at second base to spell Chase Utley. The fresher his legs are kept, the more likely the Phillies are to get a good season’s worth of production out of him.

So, all things considered, how much of a contender would Scutaro make the Phillies?

I feel like I may actually be in the minority here, but I think the Phillies already have the look of a contender. They have their share of needs that need to be addressed, but they have three very good starting pitchers in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels to lean on, and their offense isn’t as hopeless as a lot of people probably think. 

Though he’s far from the hitter he used to be, Jimmy Rollins is still a threat. Carlos Ruiz has gotten a little better as a hitter every year, and he’ll enter 2013 fresh off a season that saw him hit .325 with a .935 OPS. Utley and Ryan Howard will at least be able to provide some good pop if they can stay on the field, and the Phillies have a couple of promising youngsters in the mix in Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf.

In the grand scheme of things, the upgrades Scutaro‘s skills would mean for the Phillies would be modest. His offensive production at third base would be better than what they got in 2013, but his defense and baserunning would likely be no better than league-average. 

But as he did with the Giants, Scutaro could make a huge difference just with his intangibles. If the Phillies are in contention late in the 2013 season, they could look to Scutaro to emerge as a spark plug and a team leader. It would be great if he were to hit .360 in the stretch run again, but he could be a valuable cog on the Phillies even if he were to hit .260. His energy alone could give the them an edge.

Bear in mind that the Phillies are likely to need as many edges as they can possibly get in 2013. The NL East is going to have at least two other legit contenders in the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves, and it could have a third if the New York Mets retain R.A. Dickey and David Wright and then find a way to recapture the magic they had in the first half of the 2012 season.

All three of these teams gave the Phillies fits in 2012. Philadelphia went 9-9 against the Nats, and finished with sub .500 records against the Braves and Mets in their head-to-head matchups. Though they did shape up towards the end of the year, the Phillies left the Nats, Braves and Mets with little reason to think they’re still the dominant power in the NL East.

Provided they stay healthy, the Phillies will redeem themselves in 2013. If they sign Scutaro and he does for them what he did for the Giants, the division could fall under their control once again.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Salary figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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5 Reasons Nick Swisher Could Be Great Fit for Phillies’ Lineup in 2013

The top outfielder on the free-agent market this offseason will be Josh Hamilton, but the outfielder who will carry the most intrigue is current New York Yankees right fielder and resident goofball Nick Swisher.

Whereas Hamilton seems to have very few options for where to play next, it feels like Swisher has an abundance of options for where to play next. He’s been linked to a lot of teams, and it doesn’t seem like anybody’s taking his apparent desire for Jayson Werth money all that seriously as a roadblock.

This week, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News pondered aloud that Swisher might be a good fit for the Philadelphia Phillies. They opened up a spot in right field when they traded Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants at the deadline, and they might just have the funds to pursue Swisher seeing as how they only have $133 million in salaries committed for 2013 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

The money is going to be the iffy part either way. What isn’t so iffy is seeing how Swisher could possibly fit into Philly’s lineup next season, and here’s a look at five reasons why he could actually be a great fit.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Would Chase Utley Moving to Third Ruin Phillies’ Chances to Land David Wright?

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley could be returning to the place from whence he came:

The hot corner.

According to a report from the Associated Press, Utley was spotted taking ground balls at third base several hours before the Phillies took on the New York Mets on Wednesday night.

This doesn’t mean that Charlie Manuel is about to pencil Utley into his lineup at third base as quickly as he possibly can, mind you, but such a move may be an option in the near future.

Said Utley:

I figured I’d give it a try just to get back over there, get my feet wet, just get a feel for the position again. It could be an option in the future. It’s way too early to have an opinion either way on how it’s going to go. I might take some more ground balls in the future. But I think if I’m able to play over there, it could create some more flexibility as far as the organization is concerned. It’s just something I wanted to give a try and I may do it again.

Essentially, Utley may be willing to take one for the team by moving to third base, a position where the Phillies lack a solution both in the short term and the long term. He also could have it in mind to do his balky knees a favor by establishing himself at a position that doesn’t require him to patrol the middle of the field or put himself at risk covering second base on double plays.

In theory, anyway. Third base is a position that requires much quicker footwork, which Utley’s knees may not be able to handle day in and day out. In addition, opponents would no doubt take to testing Utley by sending a few bunts his direction.

But according to the Philadelphia Daily News, Utley isn’t acting on his own. He’s approached Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. and asked him whether some playing time at third base is a realistic eventuality.

From the sound of things, Amaro did little more than shrug.

It makes sense that Amaro wouldn’t jump at the possibility. Utley hasn’t played third base on a full-time basis since he was in Triple-A in 2002, and he didn’t exactly play well at the hot corner. In 123 games, he made 28 errors. He moved to second base the next season.

Plus, there’s the possibility Amaro may have a better solution for the Phillies’ third-base quagmire. In a perfect world, he’d acquire New York Mets six-time All-Star David Wright and stash him at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. Moving Utley to third base could complicate matters as far as that possibility goes.

Wait, what? Isn’t this a little random?

Not entirely. It was less than a year ago that ESPN’s Jayson Stark told Mike Missanelli on 97.5 FM in Philadelphia (via MetsBlog.com) that the Phillies were practically drooling over the idea of acquiring Wright:

The Phillies like David Wright. They have talked about David Wright. Are they really going to be able to make a deal for David Wright? Are the Mets really going to deal him to the Phillies? I mean, those are big questions. But, I’ve heard David Wright’s name for some time. Whether it happens is another story. But, the Phillies like him. … It would have to be a gigantic deal. And, where are the pieces left in the Phillies system to make that deal? … It’s unlikely, but don’t ignore it, because the Phillies have talked about it.

The Phillies should be coveting Wright. He has an .856 OPS against them in his career and an .891 OPS in his career at Citizens Bank Park. Considering the kind of pitching the Phillies have had in recent years, numbers such as these are impressive.

Obviously, nothing happened this winter, and one assumes the Mets don’t regret the fact that nothing happened. Though he’s cooled as the season has gone along, Wright is in the middle of his best season in years. He entered Thursday’s matinee against the Phillies hitting .315/.408/.511 and is presently tied with Andrew McCutchen for second in the National League in WAR, according to FanGraphs.

But choosing to keep Wright around in 2012 was easy. Keeping him around in 2013 and beyond will be a little more problematic.

The Mets hold a $16 million option on Wright for 2013, and they’re all but assured to exercise that. If the Mets want to keep Wright beyond 2013, however, they’ll have to hammer out a contract extension.

Mets GM Sandy Alderson recently told a gathering of season-ticket holders that extending both Wright and R.A. Dickey, who also has an option for 2013, is a top priority.

“It’s not our intention to simply rely on those options and go into next season and deal with their free agency after 2013,” Alderson said, via the New York Daily News. “We’re going to deal with it up front while we still have a little bit of room to maneuver. But we’re committed to trying to bring those two back. I hope they’ll both be back and I’m excited about the possibilities they will be.”

If something is going to get done, it’s going to have to get done this winter. According to the New York Post, Wright isn’t going to negotiate a new deal during the 2013 season, as has been the case throughout the entire 2012 season.

If something doesn’t get done this winter, all sorts of possibilities open up. One of them involves the Mets falling out of contention and choosing to get what they can while they can for Wright in the form of a trade.

Naturally, that’s a possibility that third base-needy, Wright-coveting teams like the Phillies are hoping for.

This leads us, admittedly, in a roundabout way, back to Utley.

Though Amaro and even Utley himself seem to be on the fence about the idea, it’s not hard to imagine Utley playing third base on a full-time basis (as full-time as his knees will allow, anyway) in 2013. The move could help keep him healthy, and stashing him at third base would allow Freddy Galvis or—more likely—a free-agent acquisition such as Kelly Johnson to play second base.

If the Phillies do stash Utley at the hot corner for the 2013 season, they could be in a position where they would still have the desire to trade for Wright if he were to become available, but without a place to put him. 

Add that to the fact that the organization is still light on prospects even after its recent activity at the trade deadline, and you have a foundation for a highly unlikely trade.

Factor in the fact that the Phillies and Mets play in the same division, and you’d have a trade that’s simply not going to happen.

If Wright is going to end up in a Phillies uniform, it’s going to happen after the 2013 season is over. If he and the Mets can’t hammer out an extension this winter, Wright will become a free agent at the end of next season and the Phillies will be one of many teams with his agent’s phone number on speed dial.

And conveniently for the Phillies, Utley will also be a free agent after the 2013 season is over.

Utley is signed through 2013 at $15 million, and that’s likely to be his last season in a Phillies uniform. The only way the Phillies are going to invite him back is if he shows in 2013 that he can stay healthy for a full season, and even then they’re not going to bring him back unless he agrees to a short-term deal worth significantly less money than he’s being paid now.

It’s more likely that the Phillies will wave goodbye to Utley and look to use the $15 million they had committed to him toward Wright. There’s a chance that they’ll have an additional $20 million available if Roy Halladay’s option for 2014 doesn’t vest (see Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the details). Either way, Halladay will be gone by 2015. Jimmy Rollins could be gone by then too if his option doesn’t vest.

So contrary to the way things are right now, the Phillies are going to have the financial wiggle room they require to pursue Wright as a free agent in 2013. They won’t have as much wiggle room as the Boston Red Sox now have, to be sure, but they’ll have enough to pursue Wright.

In a nutshell, here’s the answer to our big question: Moving Utley to third is not going to take the Phillies out of the Wright discussion.

Moving Utley to third base in the near future or in 2013 is not going to compromise the Phillies’ chances of signing Wright as a free agent. And since a trade between the Mets and the Phillies in 2013 is highly, highly unlikely to begin with, the Phillies shouldn’t worry about effectively blocking such a trade by installing Utley at the hot corner.

So if they think he can handle third base, they should go ahead and move him there. The Wright factor may as well be a non-factor.

Truth be told, whether or not Utley will even be able to hold his own at the hot corner is the bigger question here. 

…And I suspect you all feel the same way.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Predicting What the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies’ Starting Lineup Will Look Like

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to look a little different in 2013.

Their pitching staff will be largely unchanged, mind you, as the Phillies locked up Cole Hamels for the foreseeable future just before the trade deadline and Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Lee could have gone somewhere, but Ruben Amaro, Jr. has vowed that Lee is going to stay put.

It’s the Phillies’ offense that’s going to look different. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence were both traded before the deadline, putting the club’s plans for its outfield in flux. Given Placido Polanco’s declining health and skills, it’s a good bet that the Phillies will start 2013 with a new starting third baseman.

Sadly, I don’t own a crystal ball. I can’t gaze into the future and tell you who the Phillies are going to be running out there on a regular basis in 2013.

I do, however, have some educated guesses as to what their everyday lineup is going to look like.

 

The Locks

 

Ryan Howard, 1B

Is Ryan Howard the hitter he once was?

Not even close. He’s probably better than a .213 hitter with a .738 OPS, but not by much. He hit .253/.346/.488 in 2011 when he was healthy, and that’s where the bar should be set for him from now on.

But is Howard going anywhere?

There’s no chance of that happening. The Phillies are on the hook to pay him $20 million in 2013, and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016, according to Baseball-Reference.com. In the realm of players with immovable contracts, Howard is right up there with the likes of Alex Rodriguez and John Lackey.

This is not to suggest that the Phillies actually want to move Howard. They probably know as well as anyone that Howard isn’t going to provide good value for the money he’s being paid, but the Phillies will be happy if they get 140 games and 30 home runs out of him in 2013. 

If Howard doesn’t open 2013 as Philly’s starting first baseman, it will be because the Mayans were right about the end of the world.

 

Chase Utley, 2B

It crossed my mind that Chase Utley might decide to hang ’em up after this season. His knees are shot, and the idea of playing a full season on them in 2013 has to make him squirm.

But 2013 is the final year of Utley’s contract with the Phillies, and it’s doubtful that he’s going to want to go out on the bitter disappointment of the 2012 season. I fully expect him to give it one more go.

Utley has been surprisingly good since he was activated off the disabled list in late June. His .475 slugging percentage is his best since the 2009 season, and he could easily end up hitting more home runs in half a season this year than he did in 103 games in 2011.

The Phillies will no doubt have a plan in place to keep Utley’s legs fresh in 2013. My best guess is that Freddy Galvis is going to be used to spell Utley on occasion. Galvis is a weak hitter, but he makes up for that by being an above-average defensive player.

Not a bad platoon situation.

 

Jimmy Rollins, SS

It’s not out of the question that Amaro will try to trade Jimmy Rollins this offseason. Rollins was the subject of many trade rumors in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and the $22 million (potentially $33 million if his vesting option for 2015 kicks in) remaining on his contract after this season isn’t such a big hurdle.

Or the Phillies could just keep Rollins and hope for the best, which wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. 

Rollins is getting up there in years, but he’s shown this season that he can still play. According to FanGraphs, he still rates as an above-average defensive shortstop with a UZR of 5.6. Since the start of June, Rollins has upped his OPS from .602 to .721. Of his 13 home runs, 11 have come since June 1.

He can also still steal an occasional base, as he has 17 this season and is on pace to finish with around 25 steals.

Rollins is making $11 million this season, and the verdict from BaseballPlayerSalaries.com is that he’s worth it. Expect him to stick around and start at short for the Phillies in 2013.

 

Carlos Ruiz, C

There haven’t been many bright spots for the Phillies in 2012, but Carlos Ruiz has without a doubt been the club’s biggest bright spot.

Ruiz is going to be out for a few weeks with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, which is just the latest in a series of injuries that he’s had to deal with this season. But when he’s been healthy, Ruiz has been a monster at the plate.

Per FanGraphs, Ruiz leads all major league catchers in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, weighted on-base average and WAR. He’s also shattered his previous career high with 14 home runs.

Ruiz’s bat has come alive this season, but he’s always been a valuable member of the team because of how he handles the club’s pitching staff. It’s the most underrated part of his game, and it’s what makes him the most under-appreciated of the Phillies’ recent run of success.

He has a $5 million team option for 2013. It’s safe to say the Phillies will be picking that up.

 

The Good Bets

 

Domonic Brown, LF

In a span of a year, Domonic Brown has gone from being one of the top prospects in all of baseball to being a bust in the eyes of some fans.

Such is life when you hit just .236/.314/.382 in your first two stints in the majors.

But it’s way too early to give up on Brown, and the bright side of the Phillies’ disappointing showing this season is that it’s put them in a position to give Brown some on-the-job training in the final few weeks of the regular season.

So far, so good.

Brown has only been an everyday player for the Phillies since the start of August, but what he’s shown thus far is encouraging. He’s hitting .333/.417/.476 over his last six games, and Charlie Manuel recently told CSNPhilly.com that he’s liking what he’s seeing.

“He’s been pretty good. I like the way he works the count and swings the bat,” said Manuel of Brown. “… Right now, he’s hitting the ball more to left field, left-center, especially up the middle, and that’s how you learn how to hit. You usually go the other way and work your way around.”

Brown is capable of playing all three outfield spots, but his profile is that of a corner outfielder. Manuel has used Brown exclusively in left field since he returned to the big leagues, and he’s looked pretty comfortable out there.

So if the Phillies are finally going to commit to Brown in 2013, expect him to be in left field on Opening Day.

 

Nate Schierholtz, RF

Nate Schierholtz is not a star player by any stretch of the imagination. He’s more like a fourth outfielder, and indeed that’s the role he’s played for much of his career to this point.

He’s better than you probably think, though.

Schierholtz is not an elite hitter, but he has a career OPS of .730 and he’s managed an OPS of .761 in his brief time with the Phillies. He got semi-regular playing time in 2011, and posted an OPS of .756.

Schierholtz is perfectly capable of posting an OPS in the mid-.700s if he were to start every day for the Phillies in right field. Seeing as how Pence posted a mere .784 OPS in his time with the Phillies in 2012, going from him to Schierholtz in right field wouldn’t be a massive downgrade.

One thing that’s for sure is that going from Pence to Schierholtz would be an upgrade defensively. He posted a negative UZR and a negative DRS in 2011, according to FanGraphs, but he can generally be counted on for above-average defense. Pence, on the other hand, has rated as a below-average defensive player each of the last two years.

But you know what the best thing about Schierholtz is?

He’s cheap. Pence could make as much as $15 million in arbitration this winter, whereas the Phillies could probably get away with signing Schierholtz for around $2 million in arbitration. Possibly less.

This will free them up to spend money elsewhere.

And that leads us to the most complicated part of this discussion…

 

Problem Areas

If you add up the 2013 salaries of Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ruiz, you get a total of $51 million.

Let’s assume that Brown is going to make about $500,000 in 2013 (the equivalent of what John Mayberry is making in 2012), and that Schierholtz is going to sign for at most $2 million.

This will mean the Phillies are going to have six starters locked up for less than $55 million. That’s an average of less than $10 million per starter, which isn’t bad at all.

But they’re still not going to have a lot of money to play with in free agency, and they have their high-priced pitchers to thank for that. Lee, Halladay, Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon will combine to make about $78 million in 2013.

In all, Baseball-Reference.com calculates that the Phillies have about $132 million invested in just nine different players in 2013. Once things like options and salary arbitration figures are mixed in, they could be tied up for as much as $150 million.

Per USA Today, the Phillies are operating with a payroll of about $175 million this season. That’s where the bar will be set in 2013.

This puts their free-agency budget at probably somewhere between $20-25 million. That kind of money can buy some pretty good players.

As far as their lineup is concerned, the Phillies’ two most pressing needs will be in center field and at third base. To fill those needs, they’ll hit the free-agent market.

 

Center Field

Safe, Low-Budget Option: Cody Ross

Phillies fans well remember what Cody Ross did to the club in the 2010 NLCS. They should also realize that his left field power stroke is absolutely perfect for Citizens Bank Park.

Granted, Ross is not the kind of guy the Phillies or any other team should want playing in center field every day. He’s not a bad center fielder, but he projects better as a corner outfielder. If the Phillies were to sign him, some sort of rotation involving Ross, Brown, Schierholtz and Mayberry would be necessary.

But that would be worth it because Ross could be had fairly cheaply. He’s only being paid $3 million by the Red Sox this season. His .879 OPS and 17 home runs put him in line for a raise, and he’ll undoubtedly be looking for a multi-year deal.

A three-year offer worth $7-8 million annually could get the job done.

 

Bold, Expensive Option: Michael Bourn

Michael Bourn is going to be the top center fielder on the market this offseason, and the word from ESPN’s Buster Olney is that the Phillies are very much interested in signing him.

He won’t come cheap. Bourn is having the best season of his career, hitting .289/.347/.424 with nine home runs and 29 stolen bases, all while playing excellent defense.

The Phillies would love to have Bourn’s defense in center field, and Bourn is also appealing because he could hit leadoff, thus allowing Rollins to hit elsewhere in the order.

Olney says that Bourn is going to get a multi-year deal worth between $16 and $22 million annually. My best guess is that Bourn will be signed for a figure towards the lower end of that estimate. Something right around $16 or $17 million per year.

A deal like that would stretch the Phillies’ free-agent budget to the limit, but it’s a deal they can afford to make.

And knowing Amaro, he won’t shy away from making such a deal.

 

Prediction: Bourn signs

 

Third Base

Safe, Low-Budget Option: Maicer Izturis

If the Phillies sign Bourn, they’ll have no choice but to go after the cheapest third baseman they can find.

This is, of course, assuming they don’t pick up Polanco’s $5.5 million option. If the Phillies do choose to let him go (and they should), they’ll likely look to land a player with a similar skill set: a contact hitter who can hold his own in the field.

The free-agent market won’t be rich with options this offseason, but Maicer Izturis comes to mind. He’s very much an NL-style player, as he’s a switch hitter who specializes in doing all the little things. He’d be a perfect No. 8 hitter in an NL lineup.

He’s also a solid defensive player at the hot corner, and he has the ability to play all over the infield if need be.

He’s making just under $4 million this season. My guess is that he could be signed for right around $5 million per year, at most. 

 

Bold, Expensive Option: Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds has been one of the least valuable players in baseball this season. Per FanGraphs, Reynolds’ -0.4 WAR rates as the 10th-lowest figure in MLB among players with at least 300 plate appearances.

This is what happens when one’s power disappears, yet the strikeouts remain. Reynolds has made matters worse by struggling defensively at both third base and first base.

If Reynolds was having a typical Reynolds season, the Orioles wouldn’t be calling up Manny Machado right now to play third base down the stretch. Since they are doing just that, it doesn’t seem at all likely that they’ll pick up Reynolds’ $11 million option for 2013.

If they don’t, Reynolds will hit the open market. He won’t be in line to make a killing in free agency, but it will likely take a one-year deal worth $7 or $8 million to sign him.

 

Prediction: Izturis signs

 

So the Phillies’ 2013 Lineup Could End Up Looking Like…

I’ll spare you any further chatter and just get to the point. Here’s my prediction for Philly’s everyday lineup in 2013:

 

1. Michael Bourn, CF

2. Jimmy Rollins, SS

3. Chase Utley, 2B

4. Ryan Howard, 1B

5. Carlos Ruiz, C

6. Domonic Brown, LF

7. Nate Schierholtz, RF

8. Maicer Izturis, 3B

 

Combined with the pitching the Phillies are going to have, I’d say they’d have a shot at getting back on top in 2013.

 

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Will Phillies, Yankees Still Be Able to Win Titles with Payroll-Conscious Plans?

According to USA Today, no two teams in Major League Baseball are spending more money this season than the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. The Bombers top the league with a payroll of around $198 million, and the Phillies are just behind them at around $175 million.

Here’s the thing, though: These numbers are on their way down. Such is the plan for both clubs.

It’s been common knowledge for a while now that the Yankees are looking to curb their high-spending ways. Hal Steinbrenner said back in March, via ESPNNewYork.com, that he wants to get the club’s payroll under the $189 million luxury tax threshold that will kick in in 2014, a tall order for a club that has been operating with payrolls over $200 million for several years now.

The Yankees started the season with a payroll right around $210 million. With Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, Hiroki Kuroda and Mariano Rivera (who could be re-signed at a bargain price) coming off the books after this season, the Bombers stand to save a lot of money. Good news for them.

The Phillies are also headed in that direction. They committed a lot of money to Cole Hamels when they signed him to a $144 million extension, but they cleared some payroll by trading away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the deadline.

According to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, these moves allowed the Phillies to get under the $178 million luxury tax threshold for this season:

Phillies are slightly under luxury tax limit now, Amaro says.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) July 31, 2012

So for both clubs, things are going according to plan. Yankees and Phillies fans can rest easy knowing that their clubs are doing their utmost to avoid paying money as a penalty for spending too much money.

But…Wait a second, is this really a good thing? The high-spending ways of these two clubs in recent years has led to a lot of extra wins. And we are, indeed, talking about two of the past four World Series champions. 

The big question: Can the Yankees and Phillies still hope to compete for championships even as they come back to the rest of the pack financially?

It’s obviously not going to be easy, as neither club is going to be able to go out and patch up holes by dishing out large contracts to established stars. That’s a habit that both clubs have been guilty of in recent seasons, and it’s clear now that this habit is something of a double-edged sword.

But keep in mind that the Yankees have been at this for a lot longer than the Phillies. The Phillies are actually relatively new to the whole bloated payroll thing.

When the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, they did it with a payroll of under $100 million. They built a championship team not by signing free agents, but mainly by drafting and developing.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, four of the Phillies’ six best players in terms of WAR in 2008 were acquired via the amateur draft. Their names: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. Hamels, their best pitcher, was also acquired via the draft.

The best free-agent signee the Phillies had that year was Jayson Werth, who was being paid only $1.7 million. 

The 2008 Phillies go to show that it’s a lot more cost effective to develop your own star players than it is to go out and acquire them from elsewhere. After all, the best thing about young stars is that they’re cheap.

The Phillies are where they are now because their own star players have earned big paydays in recent years. Howard is now making $20 million per year. Hamels is making $15 million per year, and will make $20 million per year after this season. Utley is also making $15 million per year, and Rollins is making $11 million per year.

Those players alone are making $61 million in 2012, over half of the Phillies’ entire payroll in 2008.

The Phillies have pushed their payroll to the luxury tax limit by spending money on free agents like Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon, and they also traded for Roy Halladay and then signed him to a lucrative contract extension. 

They essentially took a page out of the Yankees’ book. Once they had established a winning team that was built via the draft and bargain free agent and trade acquisitions, they started throwing money at it in an attempt to keep the wins coming. Like a bad drinking habit, they simply let it get out of control (the Papelbon contract was the last straw).

The problem they’re facing now is that some of the players making the big bucks (Utley, Howard, Halladay) are getting up there in age, and are probably no longer capable of being worth the money they’re being paid. To make matters worse, the Phillies’ farm system has taken a hit over the years thanks to the high-profile trades Ruben Amaro pulled off in 2009 (Lee), 2010 (Halladay) and 2011 (Pence).

Since the Phillies are going to be stuck with a high payroll for the foreseeable future, Amaro is going to have to fill out his roster with players who are both talented and cheap. He’s gotten himself on the right track in this regard, as he got some good young players in the Victorino and Pence trades.

The Phillies should be able to contend in 2013, especially if they find a way to keep Lee around without compromising the team’s chances of staying under the luxury tax threshold in 2013. The odds of them contending for a championship, however, are not high due to the fact that key players like Utley, Howard and Rollins are no longer superstar-level players. 

The Phillies need new superstars, and it’s in their interest to develop them rather than sign them. They may be able to go all-out for a World Series title one last time in 2013, but one way or another the Phillies are going to have to embrace a youth movement very, very soon.

The Yankees are facing a similar quandary going forward. They’re not going to be able to rid themselves of the contracts of Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, which will account for over $73 million in 2013, around $70 million in 2014, around $66 million in 2015 and so on.

And while it’s true that the Yankees will be able to save money this offseason by not re-signing Swisher, Martin and Kuroda and bringing back Rivera at a bargain price if they so choose, they’re getting to a point where they’re going to have to decide whether to sign Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to extensions.

If they do, they’re likely going to have over $100 million committed to just five players heading into the 2014 season. 

That’s going to leave them with a relatively small amount of wiggle room to fill out the rest of their roster, and it can be taken for granted that they’ll be wary of signing high-priced free agents due to their fear of crossing the luxury tax threshold. Don’t expect another spending spree like the one the Yankees went on before the 2009 season, when they committed over $400 million to Teixeira, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. 

The Yankees are already sending signals that this will be the case. Brian Cashman said recently, via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that the club has no interest in going after Cliff Lee. They simply don’t want to take on another gigantic contract.

From here on out, a typical Yankees offseason will probably more closely resemble this past offseason. The Yankees made a move to acquire a young pitcher in Michael Pineda, signed Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal worth $10 million that looks like a bargain now, and rounded out their bench by signing up Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez, players who have given the Yankees great value for relatively little money.

It was an efficient offseason, in retrospect, something that we’re not used to seeing from the Yankees. Look for them to make a habit out of this as long as they’re dealing with the burden of so many heavy contracts left over from their more foolhardy years.

The bright side is that the Yankees are showing this season that they can win games without breaking the bank for free agents every offseason. They didn’t act like the Yankees over the winter, but they’re still the Yankees.

However, in many ways the Yankees are in the same boat as the Phillies in that they’re wrapped around a core of players who are older and a lot less valuable than they once were. A-Rod is no longer an elite player. The same goes for Derek Jeter. Sabathia has been more hittable than usual this season. Teixeira has been productive, but he’s nowhere close to the player he was in 2009 and years prior.

This core wasn’t good enough to get the Yankees to the World Series in 2010 or 2011. It’s doubtful that it will be good enough to do the trick in 2012.

So like the Phillies, the Yankees are going to have to mix in more and more younger, more affordable star players in the near future. The good news for them is that they’re in a better position to do this than the Phillies, as the Yankees’ farm system is typically regarded as being pretty strong. Some homegrown stars could be making a difference for the Yankees very soon, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Cashman makes more trades similar to the Pineda-for-Jesus Montero swap.

What it will come down to for both the Phillies and the Yankees in the coming years is this: If they’re going to be cheap, they’re going to have to be smart. The boorish tactic of throwing money at problems will no longer be an option, meaning they’ll actually have to worry themselves with getting good value out of the dollars they’re spending for once.

Right now, both clubs are in a tight spot because both of them have so much money committed to players who simply aren’t worth it. The only way for both clubs to account for that is by trimming as much payroll as they possibly can while constantly being on the lookout for cheap, controllable players who have the potential to outperform small contracts.

The Phillies seem to understand this, and the Yankees have made it plenty clear in recent months that they have understood this for some time now.

The question remains: Can they win titles with payroll-conscious plans?

I don’t see why not. Spending a ton of money hasn’t exactly worked for the Phillies in the last couple of seasons, so it actually bodes well for them that they’re moving towards backing off on their spending. The organization was at its best when it didn’t have a bloated payroll. It’s headed toward a return to the good old days.

It’s hard to imagine the Yankees’ payroll sinking very far below the coveted $189 million mark, as they’re always going to be spending as much money as they possibly can. It’s not like they’re eventually going to be crushed under their own excess, though, as the Yankees have quietly put together a strong farm system. To boot, Cashman has done some of the best work of his career over the last two seasons making very small moves that have helped offset the sheer burden of the club’s big contracts.

As long as the Phillies and Yankees put quality teams on the field, they’ll have a shot. The rest will be up to luck, as they’ll have to hope to stumble upon cheap stars who can balance out the old, expensive stars.

And indeed, winning the World Series takes good luck too. All you can do is put a good club together and hope that the baseball gods take it from there.

 

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Cliff Lee for Justin Upton Blockbuster Would Change Everything for Phillies

The 2012 Philadelphia Phillies are a shining testament to the fact that nothing ever goes according to plan in baseball. 

It was widely expected that the Phillies would be well on their way to a sixth straight NL East title by now. Instead, they find themselves in last place in the NL East at the trade deadline.

That’s not a shock in retrospect. The Phillies had to play roughly half the season without both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Roy Halladay finally broke down. Cliff Lee has struggled. Their bullpen has struggled. The list of problems goes on and on.

For the first time in a long time, the Phillies find themselves selling at the deadline instead of buying. Shane Victorino has been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com and others have reported that Hunter Pence has been traded to the San Francisco Giants. Joe Blanton could go next. Ty Wigginton might also be sent packing.

And now the unthinkable, Cliff Lee might also join the fire sale.

Being traded at the deadline would be nothing new for Lee, and it would make a ton of sense for a Phillies team that needs to dump a lot of payroll after signing Cole Hamels to a $144 million extension.

There aren’t many teams who can trade for Lee. The Texas Rangers are a fit, but the New York Yankees don’t have the financial wiggle room to take on Lee’s contract, the Boston Red Sox don’t want to deal their top prospects and the Dodgers don’t have top prospects to deal.

That leaves…the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Apparently, yes. 

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com dropped a surprise report on Tuesday claiming that the Diamondbacks were looking to land a “premier starting pitcher” at the deadline. It wasn’t clear who they were trying to land, but the two names Rosenthal floated as possibilities were Felix Hernandez and Mr. Lee.

Between the two of them, Lee is far more available. He’s also without a doubt the best starting pitcher on the trade market. To that end, this rumor has some legs.

The Phillies would no doubt prefer to keep Lee, as they could easily contend in 2013 with a starting rotation featuring Halladay, Lee and Hamels. Indications are that they’re only going to deal Lee for a young, star-caliber player who’s going to be around for years to come.

You know, somebody like Justin Upton.

Rosenthal‘s report claims that the Phillies and Diamondbacks have discussed a Lee-for-Upton swap. Naturally, those negotiations are “unconfirmed,” and there’s no denying the obvious financial obstacles that would exist even if the Diamondbacks and Phillies agreed to such a swap.

Lee’s contract has $75 million remaining on it after this season through 2015, with a vesting option for 2016 worth $27.5 million. Per USA Today, Arizona’s entire payroll for this season is right around $75 million. They’re clearly not a club that can afford to take on what’s left of Lee’s deal.

The Phillies would have to eat some of Lee’s contract in order to deal him to the Diamondbacks. A lot of it, in fact, and that’s problematic seeing as how the organization’s primary goal right now is to save money. 

So maybe this is all nonsense. And if you believe Bob Nightengale of USA Today, it is:

The #Dbacks say that Justin Upton is def staying and no truth to rumors of Cliff Lee or Felix Hernandez

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2012

Also, Rosenthal found out that the Diamondbacks are one of the teams on Lee’s no-trade list, and it’s no secret that he loves it in Philadelphia.

Yeah, it’s complicated. 

That’s why it’s very, very, very hard to believe that an Upton-for-Lee swap will actually get done before Tuesday’s 4:00 p.m. ET trade deadline. There are too many variables beyond the players themselves to take into account, and those variables can’t be addressed in a matter of hours.

That’s why these two clubs would be better off trying to get this deal done during the offseason. They’ll have more time on their hands to figure things out, and it helps that there will be a little bit less money owed to Lee with the 2012 season over and done with.

It would still be a complicated deal to put together, to be sure, but it wouldn’t be impossible because an Upton-for-Lee swap is a trade that makes sense for both clubs.

The Diamondbacks want an ace pitcher exactly because they need an ace pitcher. They have plenty of talented youngsters at their disposal and solid starters in Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill, but no true ace. If they want to hang with the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West in the immediate future, it’s in their interest to go out and acquire a pitcher who can match up with Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain.

The Diamondbacks have also made it fairly clear that they’re no longer interested in a long-term relationship with Upton. He’s young and he’s talented, but his regression this season isn’t sitting well with the organization and there have been rumblings of bad blood between him and the powers that be.

Nightengale wrote a few weeks ago that it’s just a matter of time before Upton is dealt, and the idea still doesn’t sound unreasonable. The organization is no longer in love with him, and Upton himself clearly needs a change of scenery.

As for the Phillies, it’s hard to imagine them getting a better player than Upton in a Lee trade. He makes sense for them for a lot of reasons.

Citizens Bank Park may as well be custom-designed for a player like Upton. He’s got loads of raw power, especially to the left side of the field. The Phillies’ home park just so happens to have one of the most hitter-friendly left fields in the major leagues, and the park’s deep center field fence opens up gaps not unlike the ones that Upton is used to seeing at Chase Field.

And with Pence supposedly out of the picture, the Phillies need a long-term answer in right field. They won’t be able to do any better than Upton.

For starters, Upton is young. He’s 24 now, and is going to turn 25 in late August. And though he’s made two All-Star teams and finished in the top five in the NL MVP voting, Upton has yet to reach his prime. The best is yet to come, and that’s a scary thought seeing as how Upton already has a career OPS of .833 and 99 home runs to his name in just five-plus seasons.

Just as important as Upton’s youth is his contract, which is very team-friendly. He signed a six-year contract worth $50 million that keeps him under control through the 2015 season. His salary will max out at $14.5 million in 2015, and that’s the kind of money the Phillies would have had to pay Pence had they chosen to extend him.

Upton is a better player than Pence, make no mistake about that. He also has considerably more upside. 

The other thing that can be said about Upton that can’t be said about Pence is this: Upton is a player the Phillies could build around. Given the current state of the organization, they should be looking for a player like that.

Utley is old and literally on his last legs. He’s probably gone after the 2013 season, the final year of his contract. Howard, the other key component of Philly’s lineup all these years, is also getting older and  less effective as a hitter. Same goes for Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz has hit a peak this year that he won’t hit again as he progresses into his mid-30s.

What the Phillies need is a new superstar, a cornerstone player that they can wrap a quality team around. If they do that, they’ll be able to continue chasing championships. They need an “out with the old, in with the new” transition, and it’s in their interest to make sure this transition appeals to their massive fanbase.

If they swing Lee for Upton, not a single Phillies fan would complain.

And that, my friends, would be a first.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Analyzing Phillies’ Payroll and Who Needs to Go to Fit Cole Hamels’ Huge Deal

The Philadelphia Phillies had every excuse to go into a fire-sale mode at the trade deadline. If they had, the first player to go would have been star lefty Cole Hamels, who was a free-agent-to-be.

Instead, the Phillies decided to keep Hamels around. 

For another six years. Possibly seven.

As reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Phillies have locked Hamels up to a six-year extension worth $144 million. His new deal also includes a vesting option for a seventh year that could make his deal worth over $160 million.

This is one of the largest contracts in the history of baseball and the second-largest contract ever given to a pitcher behind New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia. It is certainly the largest contract ever given out by the Phillies.

And this, naturally, makes things complicated.

Even before the Phillies locked Hamels up, there was some chatter about what they were going to have to do with their payroll in order to accommodate a new deal for Hamels. If they did manage to extend him, the thinking was that the Phillies were going to have to make a move to shed payroll.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., told SiriusXM radio’s Jim Bowden that he doesn’t think this is the case:

Ruben Amaro “we have no financial constraints” “if we can move a player to make our team better we will” sirius 209 XM 89

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) July 25, 2012

Tricky. He doesn’t think the team has gotten itself into a mess financially, but he also indicated that the team is willing to trade players. Kinda leaves things open to interpretation.

We can start by interpreting what kind of financial obligations the organization is going to have on its hands in 2013. This table, which uses information from Baseball-Reference.com, should help:

Player	2013 Salary	Signed Through
Cliff Lee	$25M	2015, with vesting option for 2016
Cole Hamels	$24M*	2018, with vesting option for 2019
Ryan Howard	$20M	2016, with team option for 2017
Roy Halladay	$20M	2013, with vesting option for 2014
Chase Utley	$15M	2013
Jonathan Papelbon	$13M	2015, with vesting option for 2016
Jimmy Rollins	$11M	2014, with vesting option for 2015

*This is assuming that Hamels’ deal is structured similarly to Lee’s, a notion proposed by Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

So in 2013, the Phillies are on the books to pay a grand total of $128 million to just seven different players. 

Not included in this discussion is the team’s $5.5 million mutual option for Placido Polanco or the club’s $5 million team option for Carlos Ruiz. In addition, Hunter Pence is headed for arbitration, and he could earn a payday of around $15 million.

If the Phillies keep the three of them around, they’ll be dishing out over $150 million to just 10 different players.

This is significant because of where the luxury tax threshold is going to be at in 2013. Per MLB.com, the new collective bargaining agreement that was signed in November raised the luxury tax cutoff to $189 million in 2013, 2014 and 2016.

No team wants to have to pay the luxury tax. Even the New York Yankees are sick of having to do so. The Phillies don’t want to put themselves in a position where they have to pay it, much less in a position where they have to keep paying it year after year. The price goes up for repeat offenders.

If the Phillies commit $150 million to 10 different players in 2013, they’re going to have very little financial wiggle room when they sit down to fill out the rest of their roster. Their payroll is at right around $175 million this year. There’s a chance it could be closer to $200 million in 2013.

Unless, of course, the Phillies do something about it. And whether Amaro wants to admit it or not, that means jettisoning payroll via trades.

One of the team’s most expensive players is going to have to go. The problematic part for the Phillies is that they don’t have a ton of options in that regard.

Hamels obviously isn’t going anywhere. Trading Halladay is out of the question, and it would be tricky anyway seeing as how his value is hurt by the injury he suffered this year and the short amount of time remaining on his contract. Nobody’s trading for Utley or Howard given their recent health woes. The Phillies are not going to get good value for Papelbon.

This leaves the Phillies with three dealable assets among their most expensive players: Lee, Rollins and Pence.

It just so happens that there are plenty of rumors surrounding these three players.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com recently reported that the Phillies are “eager” to move Pence, in large part because they realize he’s going to make well over $10 million in arbitration this winter. ESPN’s Jayson Stark, however, has reported that the Phillies aren’t going to just give Pence away to save money. They want “young, big league-ready” players for him, and they have very specific demands about what kind of youngsters it would take to get Pence.

That’s a lot to task for a guy who is only under club control for one more season. Pence has value out on the trade market, but not as much as the Phillies apparently think he does. They’d have to settle for less than what they want if they decide to trade Pence.

Rollins, meanwhile, has even less value out on the trade market.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers were interested, but they can probably be checked off the list now that they’ve acquired Hanley Ramirez. That’s a blow for the Phillies because the Dodgers could have picked up the rest of Rollins’ contract, as they did with Ramirez.

If the Phillies move Rollins, they’ll probably have to eat the bulk of his contract. 

For example, they’d have to do that if they were to trade him to the Oakland A’s, who Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com has reported have considered Rollins.

Eating money would kinda defeat the purpose. The Phillies need to clear money, not pay it.

So this leaves Lee, and you probably know where the discussion is going from here.

Stark noted in his report that the Phillies have talked about trading Lee, and they haven’t even bothered to discourage other teams from checking in on him. 

And this makes perfect sense. The perception is that Lee has pitched poorly this season, but he hasn’t pitched as poorly as Phillies fans think he has. His 3.95 ERA is still above average, and Lee’s 3.40 FIP (per FanGraphs) suggests that he’s been a victim of bad luck. So does his .319 BABIP.

In other words, Lee is still a good pitcher. The fact that he’s under contract through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016 only bolsters his value. Whoever trades for him won’t be getting a rental. They’ll be getting an ace who will be around for at least another three years. 

The list of teams that can afford to take on Lee is small, but one team that must be counted as a legit possibility, according to Ken Rosenthal and many others, is the Texas Rangers. They have the prospects to acquire Lee and the funds to afford him. They can always make it easy on themselves by choosing not to re-sign Josh Hamilton.

The beauty of trading Lee is that the Phillies will still be able to clear a significant amount of payroll even if they’re forced to eat some of Lee’s contract. They’d still be limited to a select number of trade partners even if they do eat some of Lee’s contract, but trading him is by no means impossible because of how desirable Lee is. He’s nowhere near being in the same boat as immovable players like Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito.

Aside from them not telling teams to buzz off when they call about Lee, there’s been little indication that the Phillies are actually interested in trading Lee. They seem more interested in moving Pence and/or Rollins, not to mention free-agent-to-be Shane Victorino.

But remember, it hasn’t even been 24 hours since Hamels agreed to his extension. The Phillies haven’t had much time to solidify their plans regarding the 2013 season. And though they’re in no hurry to trade Lee, Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com have heard that rival teams think it’s just a matter of time before the Phillies come to grips with the reality of the situation.

Give them some time. All we know for now is that they’re far from finished making moves.

 

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