Predicting the Phillies’ Starting Lineup Halfway Through Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been dominating the competition as of yet, but we can already start to put together a little bit of a picture of what might happen during the regular season.

The lineup is starting to become a little bit more regular, and we can understand a little bit more about the way Ryne Sandberg is going to put together his lineup.

Although this certainly could change over the next few weeks, here is my personal prediction of how the Philadelphia lineup will look on Opening Day.

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Philadelphia Phillies: All the Initial Reports from Spring Training

2013 was disappointing for the Philadelphia Phillies, and it is safe to say that I was not the only one waiting for Spring Training to get underway. We are all hoping that this season will be better than last, and how the Phillies perform in Spring Training can give us a pretty good indication of what we might see coming our way this season.

That’s why I’m here to help out. I have put together a list of the important things that have gone down already even though we are only three games into the affair.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Carlos Zambrano a Viable Option?

Carlos Zambrano is certainly an enigma, but some people have been wondering if the Philadelphia Phillies might be interested in bringing him on board after Roy Halladay and John Lannan landed on the DL. There was even a rumor that the Phillies had already signed him to a contract (debunked by Hardball Talk).

The Phillies apparently have not even gone to scout him yet.

If you ask Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, he would tell you that they might naturally take a look at Zambrano, but they would only do so in the spirit of looking at all of their options.

However, when or if they take a look, could there be any value here?

On the positive side, he is only 31 years old. He has a career 3.66 ERA and is coming off a respectable season with the Miami Marlins. In 2012, while his record was only 7-10, his ERA was 4.49 and his WHIP was 1.496.

Those are certainly not elite numbers like he has flashed at certain times in his 12-year career, but on one level, it seems as if it might be enough to fill a gap for the Phillies.

At 31 years old, there is no reason to believe that he might not get his act back together if given the right opportunity.

On the negative side though, Zambrano does come with a variety of off-the-field issues. I don’t want to dwell on them here, but that is something that the Phillies would need to take into consideration if they were thinking about the right-hander.

Another potential area of concern is the fact that he has been slightly susceptible to fly balls throughout much of his career. Although he actually allowed more ground balls than fly balls last season (209 as opposed to 201), his career numbers have not quite been so positive.

In a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park, that is certainly an issue to be aware of. It might not be the best home park for him.

Overall, while there is absolutely nothing certain about any of this happening, it is an interesting thought to have. Carlos Zambrano is a proven winner at the major league level. Not only that, but bringing him on board would entail a minimal financial investment.

Perhaps in this case, if the Phillies do look at him, and if they do like what they see, it might not be such a bad idea after all.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Angel Pagan Would Fit in the Lineup Perfectly

Free-agent center fielder Angel Pagan was expected to return to the San Francisco Giants. After all, they just won a World Series, and Pagan played a significant role on that team.

However, according to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Giants are not sure that they want to give him as long of a contract as he wants.

Of course, these two parties could easily resolve this problem, but if it does not work out, the Philadelphia Phillies need to make a move and sweep up Pagan for their void in center field.

The typical argument against Pagan joining the Philadelphia Phillies is his age. He is 31 years old, and the Phillies have one of the oldest teams in baseball. Many people would argue that they need to look at a younger option like B.J. Upton.

However, this argument is somewhat flawed.

Relying only on age to judge a player would be like an NBA team signing an eight-foot player who has never touched a basketball before. Yes, height is important in basketball just like age is important in baseball, but it is only one dimension. The skills need to be there beyond these unchangeable factors.

Pagan has the type of skill set that would benefit the Philadelphia Phillies.

Last season, he hit .288 with eight home runs, 56 RBI and 29 stolen bases. He also led the National League with 15 triples and rapped out 38 doubles. While he doesn’t seem to have a lot of home run power, he has quite a bit of extra-base-hit power.

The home run power also might develop in Citizens Bank Park, which is much more hitter-friendly than AT&T Park.

That is important because Chase Utley and Ryan Howard exist in the middle of the Philadelphia batting order to drive in runs. Both of these men have the potential to drive in over 100 runs, but they need people on base. Pagan has obviously proven that he can get on base, and that is the easiest way to score runs.

Also, it is significant to note that in his entire career (695 games), Pagan has grounded into only 25 double plays. By putting him in the second slot, Pagan gives the Phillies some safety at the top of the lineup: If leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins got on base, the bases would rarely be cleared because of Pagan.

Again, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley need people to drive in. Pagan would not eliminate these opportunities.

The Phillies do not need more power from a high-strikeout hitter like Upton in the middle of their lineup. They need people to handle themselves at the top of the order and utilize the power that they already have.

I realize that a lot of this argument relies on the fact that Utley and Howard need to be healthy and return to their normal level of production. And perhaps that is a bit of an assumption. However, just by looking at his statistics, we can see that Pagan gets on base without compromising the offensive attack. Whoever is in the middle of the lineup would benefit from that.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly that Pagan is definitely on his radar, and if the Giants are not able to bring him back, the Philadelphia Phillies need to make a major play for the center fielder.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

 
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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Should Pursue Angel Pagan over BJ Upton

While all of the talk in Philadelphia has been centered around how the Phillies can get BJ Upton into the outfield, the team might be better off looking at Angel Pagan at a more predictable, and consequently better, option for 2013.

It seems as if the San Francisco Giants want to bring Pagan back, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, so this might be a hard fight to win. He just won the World Series, and that is a difficult situation to leave.

However, Pagan himself has never come out on the record as far as I know as to his intentions for next season. Perhaps he wants to try somewhere different. If that is the case, the Philadelphia Phillies need to seriously consider adding Pagan to the lineup.

First, he will serve a purpose similar to what Shane Victorino did when he was in Philadelphia. He hit for a high average, got on base, was always a threat to steal second and had decent power. Of course, if you look at his stat line from last season, this is rather obvious.

He hit .288, led the National League with 15 triples, hit eight home runs, drove in 56 runs and stole 29 bases. He is the type of hitter that the Phillies could use at the top of their lineup to help set the table for the run producing bats of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Beyond the obvious on-field benefits, it’s safe to assume that his contract will be less than BJ Upton. The Philadelphia Phillies have put far too much money into far too few contracts. Making another large investment in a high-risk player like Upton doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Normally, I am a huge advocate of taking on risks to reap huge potential rewards. Upton does provide that, but it is not the right time for the Phillies. If the risk for Upton doesn’t pay off, the Phillies will be saddled with yet another deal that costs a lot more than it is worth.

Except for the power, Pagan provides virtually every benefit that Upton does and he has been more consistent throughout his career. The Phillies need someone who they can count on to produce, and if he comes at a discount compared to Upton (which he absolutely should), the deal looks even better.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Should Be Careful Chasing BJ Upton

The Philadelphia Phillies are the early front-runners in the race for free-agent center fielder B.J. Upton, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

The Phillies should proceed very cautiously if they truly are interested in Upton.

On one hand, he is one of the most physically talented players on the free-agent market this year. Everyone has known for a long time that he is a legitimate five-tool player. He is one of the rare players who has substantial power and speed.

However, we have only had brief glimpses of that brilliance. In 2007, he did hit .300 with 24 home runs, 82 RBI and 22 stolen bases. However, we have not seen all-around excellent numbers like that since. In 2012, he hit .246 with 28 home runs, 78 RBI and 31 stolen bases.

Obviously, some of his numbers improved, but what concerns me most about Upton is his tendency to add to the problem that the Phillies already have. He is a career .255 hitter, and he strikes out in bunches.

As a team last season, the Philadelphia Phillies hit .255. That placed them right in the middle of the league at 15th place.

In theory, it would be desirable to move up this list rather than move down, but given Upton’s history, the team batting average could easily drop further.

I know that everything does not rely on batting average, but when you look at the statistics from 2012, batting average is an important determinant of runs scored. I ran a little bit of statistical analysis on team data from last season, and the correlation between runs and batting average came to essentially .75 (for the purpose of full disclosure, I copied the table from the MLB.com Team Statistics page into Microsoft Excel and ran the Data Analysis add-on package for correlations).

The statistician in me looks at that relationship and worries about dropping the Philadelphia batting average even more. It could drop run production even more.

If he is able to tap into the potential that we all have been waiting for and puts up a season like he demonstrated he could in 2007, he would obviously help in Philadelphia. However, if you look at more recent history, his potential signing is somewhat more questionable.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!
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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Need to Be Conservative This Winter

The Philadelphia Phillies no doubt want to rebound from what was a frustrating 2012. Obviously, there are many ways to go about fixing a baseball team that was not quite functioning at full strength all season.

One possible way to fix this type of problem is going out and spending money. This approach has been used successfully by many teams, and it generally does help save a franchise for a few seasons.

However, if the Phillies are hoping to build a sustainable franchise, this winter needs to be very conservative.

Let me try to define what I mean by conservative.

The Phillies cannot afford to make any more massive signings on their current payroll.

It is no secret that the contracts of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon take up a lot of the team’s financial flexibility. I’m not necessarily saying that all of these contracts are terrible, but they are significant in the sense that the Phillies are committed to paying them.

By being conservative, the Phillies would make temporary moves to fill in holes and complement these pieces they have already committed to for the long-term.

For example, we all know that the Phillies could use some help in the outfield. Exactly how much help is necessary is up for debate, but the Phillies will probably be in the market for another outfielder this winter.

A conservative approach would avoid guys like Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher or other players who will probably command a longer-term contract.

A conservative approach would recognize that the Phillies are aging, and in the near future, they will need to revamp their lineup. Consequently, they would not want to sink large amounts of money into players who are aging right along with their current nucleus.

The purpose of employing such a conservative approach would be to make strategic moves that complement the pieces already in place while not tying down the flexibility of the franchise to begin thinking about the next generation.

This generation is not over yet, and it would not be surprising whatsoever to see Philadelphia compete for the National League East championship next season, but this winter needs to be conservative. They cannot afford to continue this type of spending.

Making another big splash might help the Phillies next season, but eventually, all of these contracts will still need to be paid even if all of the players are beyond their most productive years. That can be crippling.

 

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Can the Philadelphia Phillies Finish off Their Playoff Run?

To take off my unbiased reporter hat for one second, I am entirely thrilled that the Philadelphia Phillies are finally getting their act together and are only four games out of the National League Wild Card position held by the St. Louis Cardinals right now.

However, four games back isn’t the ultimate target, and so, putting my objective hat back on, I have to wonder what the Phillies’ odds are of completing the comeback in the next few weeks.

Unfortunately, the Phillies will not face off with any of the teams ahead of them in the Wild-Card race, so they will need to win their games but also rely on other teams to knock off the Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates. That definitely is less than ideal because the easiest way to make a comeback is to directly defeat the team you are chasing.

Most of their opponents for the rest of the year will come from the National League East, with the lone exception being the Houston Astros. This will definitely make their run more challenging, but it really will not be that much different than anybody else in the race.

Each of these four teams play roughly an equal number of games against opponents above and below .500, so there won’t necessarily be an advantage for any team in that respect.

The Phillies are incredibly hot right now, so that momentum is going to help them down the stretch, but when the strength of schedule seems to be approximately similar for every team, it is difficult to be in the back of the pack. It is still an uphill battle, but it isn’t impossible.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why They Should Be Excited About Darin Ruf

If you are a Philadelphia Phillies fan, you have to be excited about the prospect of Darin Ruf smashing home runs in Citizens Bank Park in the near future.

He had an outstanding year with Double-A Reading as he hit .317 with 38 home runs and 104 RBI.

This was really a breakout year for him in terms of power production as he more than doubled his career home run total.

Developments like this have earned him high praise from around Major League Baseball, and one scout had this to say about him when he spoke with Jayson Stark of ESPN.

He might be Matt Holliday. … I saw him eight or nine games. And I saw him hit everything… And defensively, I actually thought he was better in the outfield than he was at first base. He’s an interesting guy.

As a matter of fact, when you look at Matt Holliday in the minor leagues, he also took a while to find his powerful swing. For Holliday’s power breakout came when he was 26 and playing for the Colorado Rockies. He hit .326 with 34 home runs and 114 RBI.

Ruf obviously put up a very similar stat line in Double-A, so even though it is somewhat hard to compare performance between the different levels in the organization, at least the numbers are similar.

Conveniently, Ruf could also fill the void that the Phillies have in left field. Even though he has been primarily a first basemen throughout his minor league career, Ruf has spent some time in left field this past season. Obviously, the pathway at first base is going to be blocked for a long time with Ryan Howard, so if the Phillies want to use him, they will need to help him discover another position.

If he develops into Matt Holliday, the Phillies will have hit the jackpot. Even if he doesn’t become quite that good, it seems as if he is going to be a very productive major league bat who will hit for a lot of power and produce runs. Nobody would complain about that either.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Carlos Ruiz Deserves MVP Consideration

Before the season, nobody would have thought that Carlos Ruiz would be among the most productive offensive players in baseball.

After what he has done so far this season, it would not be surprising at all to hear his name even in MVP discussions.

Right now, Ruiz is hitting .340, which is the fifth best in the National League to go along with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. That is the highest batting average among catchers as well.

On top of what he provides on the offensive side of the ball, Ruiz is one of the elite defenders in baseball.

However, on top of simply his individual performance, it is hard to think about where the Philadelphia Phillies would be without him this season. They have not had very much offense to speak of outside of Ruiz.

He has definitely been the most valuable player for the Phillies, but it is going to be interesting to see if the voters shy away from voting for a player on a disappointing team. There is always a debate as to whether or not the MVP needs to be on a team that is actually doing well.

Even though there are plenty of other choices in the MVP race, if the season ended right now, Carlos Ruiz undoubtedly deserves to be considered for the honor. With guys like Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen having good seasons for highly successful teams, there will undoubtedly be in the discussion as well.

I haven’t done this for a while, but let me open it up to all of you readers. Who is your National League MVP right now?

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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