Philadelphia Phillies Veterans Hoping Pride Does Not Precede Another Hard Fall

If you listen carefully, even with all of those snow piles still dotting the Delaware Valley, you can hear the chirping.

No, not the chirping of spring robins and cardinals. The idle chirping of ancient Philadelphia Phillies trying to convince you (and themselves?) that their time as relevant baseball players is not long gone.

“I feel like I can play 162 games,” said Ryan Howard, according to ESPN.com (citing an Associated Press report.) 

“We’ve had a bad couple years and had injuries and all that stuff, but I don’t think it’s over,” Howard continued.

Removing all doubt from the degree of his own delusion, Howard recently told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News: “I’m more than capable of hitting 58 home runs.”

Right.

Resident lightning rod/closer Jonathan Papelbon is also letting the world know that, at least in his mind, the Phillies are far from over.

Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com was one of many writers who were present when Papelbon let fly this proclamation: “I have looked at what people have predicted us to do. I don’t necessarily agree with that and if I was a gambling man, I would take us.”

Asked to clarify what he meant, Papelbon replied: “To go all the way.”

Of course.

Marlon Byrd, 36 years young and new in Philadelphia for the second time in his career, is similarly going out of his way to allay your fears that the Phillies are too old to compete.

“You keep hearing old, old, old … we’re not an old team,” Byrd said to Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com. “We can still play. Once you can’t play, then you’re old. We still have a lot in the tank, we just to have to show that and stay healthy.”

Oh.

The longer all this happy-speak goes on, the more evident it becomes who is behind it all.

“Listen, I don’t want to be foolhardy,” said Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “But I do believe we have the talent to make a run at the National League East this year. And if we’re making a run at the National League East, it puts us in position to win the World Series.”

There are those words again. World Series.

Admittedly, there is nothing new to optimistic spin coming from baseball players and management in February. For the most part, such chatter is harmless, too.

With this Phillies team, though, it rings more hollow and borders on the sad.

“I don’t expect the GM of a major league team to actually say things like ‘well, if everything breaks right, we can finish at .500,'” wrote Craig Calcaterra of HardBallTalk.NBCSports.com about Amaro’s remarks. “But I do expect at least a bit of a nod to realism.”

Which is precisely the point.

After winning 81 games in 2012 and 73 games last season, the last words anyone affiliated with the Phillies in 2014 should be tossing around are “World Series.” Or anything related to October for that matter.

Now would be an excellent time for the Phillies to stop talking to the media about all of their big dreams and start figuring out how all of these old players are going to stay healthy and produce.

Because if the Phillies are 23 games out of the division lead again this coming September, all of this February’s chirping will sound even sillier than it does right now.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Potential Breakout Players to Watch in Spring Training

Philadelphia is still in the throes of the third-snowiest winter in the history of the city, according to Steve Strouss of CBS Philly.

The cold and gray have aptly mirrored the feelings of Philadelphia Phillies fans about a team full of players in the winters of their respective careers.

Five of the probable everyday eight are at least 34 years old. The marquee free-agent signing on the offensive side of the ball is 36-year-old Marlon Byrd.

The Phillies made more news recently by shoring up the pitching staff, agreeing to terms with free agent right-hander A.J. Burnett, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

At 37 years of age, Burnett should fit right in at the regulars’ canasta games.

So it is an old team. Very old, really. And it could use an infusion of youth.

Where might that come from?

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Howard Will Return to Form in 2014

It seems that Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard being the topic of Spring Training has become the norm.

The former 2005 NL Rookie of the Year and 2006 Most Valuable Player has struggled to stay on the field since the 2011 postseason due to a torn Achilles, a small toe fracture and a torn left meniscus.

The Phillies come into Spring Training with a plethora of “ifs.” One is Howard.

Philadelphia’s “Big Piece” spoke to the media at a Phillies camp press conference on Saturday afternoon regarding his chances of staying healthy.

“I feel like I can play 162 games,” Howard said. “Now that I have two legs, I’m feeling better and I’m able to hop around on the field, my swing is coming back to where I want it to be. That’s kind of my mantra. Getting two legs has allowed me to get stable in the batter’s box, where I want to be. I can work on my approach and go from there.”

Howard’s health is a huge key for Philadelphia. The left-handed slugger believes he can still hit 40-plus home runs and come to camp as a man on a mission.

“When I’m out there, I want to give it what I got,” Howard said. “I owe it to myself, I owe it to my teammates, I owe it to the fans and the organization… If I can try to knock in some runs or try to do whatever it is I can to help our team win, that’s my goal.”

The Phillies are 93-69 in Howard’s last 162 starts, which is why the “Big Piece” is the most important player on the roster.

But will Howard return to form?

Doubters say that he cannot hit left-handed pitching, he will not be able to stay on the field, he isn’t worth the money he is getting paid and that he strikes out at an alarming rate.

I’ll say this first: forget the injury bug. Assume that Howard plays 145-151 games in 2014. He will return to form for a few reasons.

Howard, when healthy, is one of the most dominant and feared hitters at the plate. Case in point being that the first baseman came into camp down a few pounds and finally feels healthy.

A message from his manager, Ryne Sandberg, may have triggered the determination. The Phillies skipper told Comcast’s Leslie Gudel that he believes Howard’s weight was a problem in 2013.

Howard believes that sitting out for basically a full season has helped him get back to his old routine.

“Now that my knee was completely healed and my Achilles had a year or so to gain strength, I can go back to the workouts I used to do,” Howard said on Saturday. “While we were still trying to build strength in my quad, my calf and the entire left leg, I was still able to get out here and do my baseball stuff… It was pretty much back to what I would normally do.”

Howard getting healthy and back on his workout regimen are the first reasons for why he will return to form.

It has been a while since Howard has had power from both sides of the plate to protect him in the lineup. Chase Utley, Marlon Byrd and Domonic Brown are each coming off productive seasons. They are projected to hit third, fifth and sixth, respectively, in the lineup.

Having protection from both sides of the plate in front of him can help Howard in an important way: He will see better pitching, because pitchers may want to challenge him instead of the other three.

Howard also still has the ability to hit to all parts of the field.

All three videos were from 2012 and 2013, respectively. Howard has been able to crush the ball in any stadium to all parts of the ballpark despite being injured. His eye for the ball has not changed. What has changed is his age.

Look at a player like Adam Dunn.

Dunn made a living hitting home runs all over the ballpark with the Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox. He struck out at an alarming rate, his batting average was relatively low and he struggled against left-handed pitching.

In 2012, Dunn hit .204 but crushed 41 HR and drove in 96 runs while striking out 222 times. That was the type of production Howard was on during his 2012 season when he was recovering from the torn Achilles.

Howard’s production then was still as productive as a healthy Dunn, which says something for a middle-of-the-lineup threat. It’s not something to brag about, but definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration.

Howard was on pace for a productive 2013 season until he went down with a torn meniscus. The veteran hit .266, slammed 11 HR and drove in 43 runs through 80 games played. The dip in run production was mainly due to Philadelphia’s inability to get on base and into scoring position.

The final reason I believe Howard will return to form is the effect Citizens Bank Park has on players. Remember that not too long ago a player named Raul Ibanez hit 70 HR with the Phillies, including 34 HR in 2009.

Howard is considered a pull hitter, which is why teams will shift him to the pull side of the field. However, he is still able to lace a ball into the right field bleachers despite not putting a good swing on the ball.

Former Phillies closer and MLB Network analyst Mitch Williams mentioned on the WIP Morning Show in Philadelphia how Howard could hit 35 HRs “by accident” in 2014.

Because he is 100 percent healthy for the first time in about three season, he has protection around him in the lineup and still produced when injured, I fully believe that Howard will return to form in 2014.

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Odds for Each Phillies Player on the Roster Bubble Making the Final 25-Man Cut

It’s been a big week for the Philadelphia Phillies. More specifically, it’s been a big last couple of days for the Phillies.

After news emerged on February 12 that homegrown ace and 2013 Opening Day starter Cole Hamels would not be ready for the opener in 2014, the Phillies’ rotation immediately lost depth. Behind Hamels and Cliff Lee, the rotation stood as a bit of an enigma, with the final two spots not even cemented as of yet.

Consequently, hours later, the Phillies and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. went out and signed right-handed starter A.J. Burnett to a one-year, $16 million contract with an option for 2015. And a day later, on February 13, minor league signee Chad Gaudin was released after allegedly failing his physical, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

With that all in mind, some of the Phillies’ spring training battles have changed. Now that the first four rotation spots are firmly in place, three starters will vie for the fifth starter’s job. A couple of other players also will have a stab at making the major league squad, although they may not be in the starting rotation.

Having said that, here are the odds each Phillies player on the bubble has of making the 25-man roster.

 

 

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A.J. Burnett Deal Doesn’t Make Philadelphia Phillies Contenders

Hype. Anticipation. Fear.

The unknowns of spring training are what will define the 2014 season for the Philadelphia Phillies. Bum shoulders, aging veterans, overpriced contracts and an out-of-touch front office are contributing to the lower expectations on Pattison Ave.

One more noun could be added into the equation though: Manipulation.

Once again, the delirious general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies, Ruben Amaro Jr., is pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes. Or so he thinks.

According to Matt Gelb of “Philly.com,” the Phillies have inked veteran starting pitcher A.J. Burnett to a one-year deal worth $16 million. At 37 years old, Burnett is coming off of arguably his best all-around season in Pittsburgh. He posted great numbers in the National League while quarterbacking the Pittsburgh Pirates to their first playoff appearance in two decades.

The past two seasons in the Steel City are likely to confuse individuals with nearsightedness. While Burnett was stellar, his posture in the only major media market he has ever played, New York, leaves much to be desired. Simply put, Burnett did his best George Costanza impression: “It was an inferno in there! An inferno!”

Burnett couldn’t wait to get out of New York.

The heat emanating from the pressure cooker of the South Bronx was too much for the righty. In his three years with the New York Yankees, Burnett posted a 4.82 ERA to go along with his record of 34-35. In six postseason starts, he had two wins and two losses to coincide with an ERA of 4.79. Quite frankly, Burnett never lived up to the five-year, $82.5 million contract given to him by the Yankees. After three seasons in the Bronx, he was dealt to the reeling Pirates.

Burnett did resuscitate his career with the Pirates. However, his performance in the Big Apple does lend credence to the notion that the righty struggles to perform when the big lights are on him. And in South Philly, the lights will be bright.

The Phillies are apparently in transition but the front office doesn’t want you to think so. According to Jim Salisbury of “CSN Philly,” Amaro declared “We are built to contend.”

Now that’s some comedic insight.

The 2014 season does hinge on an extraction of play reminiscent of what the core of the Phillies were able to do three or four years ago. Naturally, the health of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins matter. But so does reality. In reality, we see a team which has a backbone of nothing but old and bulging discs, pinching the nerves of the very fan base which helped carry the Phillies financially since Ed Wade was chased out of town.

According to David Schoenfield of “ESPN.com,” the Phillies are projected to win 66 games in 2014. Put that in perspective. The Phillies haven’t lost that many games since 2000 when Terry Francona got the axe. 

The Phillies should certainly win more than 66 games and Burnett should help them do so. How about 80 wins? That might be asking for too much, pal.

The profane monetary figure of the Burnett contract flies in the face of anything sane. While team’s who seek veterans for one-year deals often accommodate the player by paying a premium, Burnett is not filet mignon. No, he is cube steak. There is a reason he considered hanging up the cleats for good. But instead, Amaro and company gave Burnett 16 million reasons to think otherwise.

Maybe the recent issue concerning Cole Hamels forced Amaro‘s hand. According to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Hamels is set to miss Opening Day due to “discomfort in his shoulder and biceps.” Then again, that is just one start. 

It will be easier to trust Burnett in the rotation. After all, he immediately hurdles Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, Jonathan Pettibone and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. And if the Phillies do not overachieve and fail to keep things interesting into the summer, they will have a valuable trade piece in Burnett. That is, if he performs on par with what many are expecting (or close to it).

For some reason, the word “if” is being used a lot in Philly.

At the end of the day, signing Burnett is reasonable. While the price tag doesn’t match the product, it can be understood as a sign of desperation or attempted manipulation. GM Amaro has been manipulating the fan base into believing the Phillies can contend. Not everyone is buying it. The doom and gloom is real.

And while the Burnett signing does improve the rotation, let’s not go crazy. The Phillies aren’t suddenly contenders. We shouldn’t be setting off fireworks or releasing balloons into the night sky.  No, we should continue to be hypercritical. After all, everyone’s book has a final chapter and we are one day closer to Amaro‘s as GM in Philadelphia.

All statistics provided courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless stated otherwise.

 

 

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Cole Hamels: Short- and Long-Term Effects of Shoulder Tendinitis for Pitcher

True story: One of the first Baseball Prospectus events I ever did was at a Giordano’s in Chicago back in 2003. It was Rany Jazayerli, Nate Silver and myself. (What ever became of those guys anyway?) During the Q&A, someone asked a question about a young Phillies prospect. Rany, then the resident prospect guru, gave his opinion, but because of his pre-draft medical issues, I was asked my opinion on Cole Hamels.

“A left-handed Mark Prior,” was my reply. At the time, in Chicago, that was one heck of a compliment.

Prior went on to have a nice year in ’03, but a fluke injury took him down. Hamels, on the other hand, went on to become one of the best lefty pitchers in baseball over the last decade. Now, Hamels is having a minor shoulder problem of his own.

Hamels reported to spring training and promptly told reporters, per the Associated Press (via Yahoo! Sports), he was a week behind schedule. During the offseason, Hamels suffered through a bout of tendinitis in his shoulder. This is not uncommon for pitchers, and the standard of care is normally to take a look, make sure that there’s nothing more wrong with the shoulder and then to use rest to allow the inflammation to calm down.

There’s no evidence that Hamels needed anything more serious than rest and likely some anti-inflammatories to clear it up. At this point, Hamels does not appear to be injured, just behind schedule.

Pitchers are usually on very strict schedules for offseason throwing and the buildup to the season. Spring training allows pitchers to “stretch out” their arms over several starts, increasing their stamina to be ready for April, not mid-February. That traditional schedule is the reason pitchers and catchers report early.

Remember that Hamels is perhaps the best example of a modern Tom House pitcher. The former Rangers pitching coach now consults with many, especially young pitchers, and in this era, few have been more touted than Prior and Hamels. Hamels’ fluid mechanics and linearity have allowed him to overcome a heavy workload during his pre- and post-age-25 seasons. 

Hamels is hardly the only pitcher to encounter offseason issues. Jeremy Hellickson had elbow surgery, and many others—lower-profile pitchers—will find themselves behind schedule in days or weeks. While the pitching motion itself is not unnatural, it’s the repetitive nature of the position that puts serious demands on the various joints, muscles and connective tissue. 

The question now is whether Hamels is actually a week or so behind schedule. We’ll know quickly as spring training gets under way. If Hamels does miss his first scheduled start or is an inning or so behind his teammates—including new Phillie A.J. Burnett—we’ll know that head athletic trainer Scott Sheridan and his staff have things under control. If it’s more, Ryne Sandberg has his first challenge as manager. 

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A.J. Burnett Signing Provides Perfect Cole Hamels Insurance, Chance to Contend

In the course of a whirlwind morning, the Philadelphia Phillies may have lost Cole Hamels for the start of the season, acquired A.J. Burnett and given themselves a slight chance to actually contend in 2014. 

Only in Philadelphia can doom, gloom and exuberance seamlessly come together. As pitchers and catchers get set for the season in Clearwater, Fla., the Phillies will undergo a massive change to their projected starting rotation.

First, the news came down, per Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, about Cole Hamels’ arm issue that will sideline him through March and past Opening Day.

According to Lawrence, Hamels felt discomfort in his left shoulder and biceps during his winter throwing program. 

“It’s not like there is any pain or discomfort (now),” Hamels said. “It’s just the building up the muscles (process). Like they say, you can’t run a marathon right off the bat.”

At this moment, there’s little reason to believe that Hamels is going to be out for an extended period of time or lose more than a few April starts. His spring training, however, will be compromised if he can’t work his way back into game action in March.

With the need for rotation insurance becoming a major issue in Philadelphia, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the front office closed a deal with free-agent starter A.J. Burnett, signing the 37-year-old righty to a one-year, $16 million deal. Hayden Balgavy of THV 11 in Arkansas first reported the news. CSN Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury confirmed the news. Before long, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal jumped in on the action:

Within an hour of losing an ace to arm discomfort, the Phillies added another.

Confused? It’s understandable.

On the surface, the Hamels injury and Burnett signing can be taken many different ways: Is Burnett’s arrival a reactionary move or precursor to a prolonged absence from Hamels? After watching the way Roy Halladay downplayed spring-training discomfort last year, is Hamels’ season in jeopardy? Can Burnett’s arrival make the Phillies a contender for the first time since 2011?

All of those questions are fair and should be posed to Amaro when he meets with the media in Clearwater.

Before garnering the answers, this much is clear: Burnett’s arrival is a tremendous move for a franchise that hasn’t made enough of them over the past few years. After dominating the NL Central in 2013, Burnett represented a bargain in the free-agent market.

Due to his late arrival on the open market, many teams didn’t have the payroll flexibility to truly enter the mix. Plus, Burnett’s preference to play within driving distance of his Maryland home made the Phillies a logical destination.

Regardless of how or why the Phillies came to an agreement with Burnett, it’s a move that will change their fortune in 2014. 

For as long as Hamels is sidelined, Burnett can adequately replace his production atop the rotation alongside Cliff Lee. For a team that needs excellent starting pitching to contend, a rotation without Hamels or Burnett could have buried the Phillies in an enormous April hole.

Furthermore, if Burnett is as good as he was last year, the Phillies suddenly have reason to believe. 

Entering the 2013 season, the Phillies portrayed themselves as a contender, despite an aging, decaying core. 

Why?

In their minds—along with baseball experts—the team had a shot to contend as long as the trio of Lee-Hamels-Halladay headlined its rotation, pitched 600-plus excellent innings and limited runs in more than 90 combined starts.

Due to Halladay’s ineffectiveness, stemming from injury and eventual surgery, that plan never came to fruition. Despite getting 64 excellent starts from the combination of Lee and Hamels, the 2013 Phillies lost 89 games and finished with a worse run differential than the last-place Marlins.

Now, with Burnett in tow, the foundation for that dream can be laid once again. If the Phillies are going to contend in 2014, they’ll need excellence from their new three-headed monster atop the rotation. When, or if, Hamels returns in mid-April, that idea isn’t far-fetched.  

Last year, only 22 qualified starting pitchers owned an FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark of less than 3.30. Three of those 22 now reside atop the Phillies rotation. In fact, Philadelphia now boasts three of the top 18 starters based on FIP, per Fangraphs.

When using SO/BB rate as a reference point, the Lee-Hamels-Burnett trio ranked among the top 32 in baseball last season, per Baseball-Reference (subscription required).

If you’re not sold yet, consider this: Over the last two years, 21 starters have made at least 60 starts and compiled an ERA below 3.50. As you can probably imagine, Lee, Hamels and Burnett are among them, according to Baseball-Reference (subscription required). In 2011, on the path to 102 victories, the Phillies boasted a similar distinction when Lee, Hamels and Halladay all pitched to ERA marks below 2.80. 

To be fair, Burnett isn’t going to make anyone leave a deposit for playoff tickets in Philadelphia. If Hamels is out for longer than expected, Burnett will simply fill his shoes and the Phillies will be a 75-win team in the NL East. 

Considering that their core hasn’t played a full season together in a long, long time, the Burnett signing can’t rescue this franchise alone. 

Expecting health out of the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies is a fool’s errand. If Jimmy Rollins stays healthy and productive, it’s unlikely that both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will join him. Prior to Hamels’ injury revelation, the Philadelphia Daily News‘ Ryan Lawrence asked if the team is too old and brittle to contend this season.

Per Lawrence’s research: “All told, Howard, Utley, Ruiz and Rollins have started a whopping 116 games together in the last four seasons. The Phillies have played 648 games in that time.”

In a perfect world, Hamels is fine by mid-April, the nucleus of a championship team stays healthy and Burnett gives the Phillies a dominant top three in the starting rotation. The formula could provide enough to keep Philadelphia on the outskirts of the postseason race this summer.

It’s not a perfect world in Philadelphia, but Burnett’s arrival offers a glimmer of hope for a downtrodden fanbase.

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk about all things baseball. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2014 Spring Training Preview

From 2007-11, Clearwater, Fla., was the place to be for Philadelphia Phillies fans. With a dominant, improving team and a willing and aggressive front office, the franchise attracted fans in droves to watch their roster train for the upcoming season.

Those days are over.

On the heels of back-to-back non-winning seasons for the first time since 1999-2000, the Phillies head into the 2014 season at a crossroads: The roster is designed to win now, but a lack of talent permeates through the goal.

In order to create optimism and shock a suddenly depressed fanbase, the Phillies must surprise in Clearwater, stay healthy through March and arrive back in Philadelphia as a team poised to recapture their former glory. 

Can they do it?

Without further ado, here’s a spring training preview for the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All contract figures courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration numbers and projections courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors. Roster projections courtesy of MLB Depth Charts.

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What Is Ryan Howard’s Impact on the Phillies If Fully Healthy in 2014?

What would a fully healthy Ryan Howard mean to the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies?

Not as much as you might think.

There are two statistics that Phillies fans and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. point to as proof that a healthy Howard could change the team’s fortunes. As reported by Dennis Deitch of the Delaware County Daily Times:

• Phillies record in 2012-13 with Howard in the starting lineup: 77-63
• Phillies record in 2012-13 without Howard in the starting lineup: 77-107

A simple calculation shows that 77 wins out of 140 games played yields a .550 winning percentage, which over a 162-game season would yield 89 wins.

In 2013, 89 wins would have left the Phillies one win shy of the playoffs, but such a season would have been a lot more fun to watch than the 73 wins they actually posted.

Unfortunately, the simple statistics above are pretty much undone by the more complicated statistics that follow.

Dan Szymborski of ESPN.com set forth at length the reasons why Howard’s five-year, $125 million contract extension was the worst contract in baseball history.

And Szymborski‘s analysis portends dark days for Howard and the Phillies.

For starters, Szymborski noted that “Howard’s top comps are not a pretty group—Carlos Pena, Richie Sexson, Greg Luzinski, Jim Gentile, Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder—and these are all players who aged poorly.”

Then Szymborski ran the numbers with his proprietary ZiPS system to project Howard’s batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage lines. Here is what came out:

In a 2013 Philadelphia environment, ZiPS projected Howard’s 2013 season at .243/.333/.487 when his deal was signed. Before the 2011 season, the 2013 projection had dropped to .241/.325/.472; fast-forward another year and his 2013 projection was .246/.328/.476; and before this season, he was projected to hit .242/.325/.463.

As Szymborski harshly but fairly put it, Howard’s actual performance in 2013 (a slash line of .266/.319/.465) was “exactly what you would expect from a one-dimensional slugger in his early 30s in the middle of a normal decline phase for a player of his type.”

Probably the most alarming part of Howard’s drop-off is the plummeting power numbers. The following players slugged .465 or better in 2013: Torii Hunter, Nate Schierholtz and Pedro Alvarez. Only Alvarez qualifies as a power hitter of those three, and he hit .233 in 2013.

Fangraphs.com has the Phillies winning 74 games in 2014. Their projection is of course silent as to Howard’s health or lack thereof in 2014.

But the idea that Howard has a healthy, productive season in him that could improve the Phillies by 15 games trends beyond statistical improbability and into practical impossibility.

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Ranking the Philadelphia Phillies’ Most Important Players Heading into 2014

The Philadelphia Phillies were a team to be reckoned with from 2007-2011. They were an example of what a franchise should embody with their ability to develop prospects, build chemistry and fill voids efficiently through free agency. Those teams won five National League East division titles, two National League Championships and one World Series.

The 2012 and 2013 seasons were anything but fun for the Philadelphia faithful. The bats have slowed down, players are getting older and the young crop of prospects have yet to pan out.

There have been changes throughout the organization since that time. Charlie Manuel is no longer manager, old faces have returned and a few prospects are in the everyday lineup.

The Phillies could be a surprise team in 2014—or they could fail miserably, depending on whether all of their “ifs” pan out correctly. There are 10 players that will be significant to the team’s success once the season starts.

Each player on the 40-man roster was evaluated by the following criteria: career consistency, key skill and importance of position.

Philadelphia will need to watch these 10 players closely. The team’s success depends on their production.

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