Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 6

The Philadelphia Phillies called up two prospects from Triple-A this past week who turned in solid season debuts, although neither is considered a top 10 prospect.

Tyler Cloyd received a promotion over Adam Morgan to pitch in Roy Halladay’s spot in the rotation, and took a no-decision after allowing two earned runs and two hits in 6.1 innings.

Following the game Cloyd was sent back to Triple-A, while Justin De Fratus was promoted.  De Fratus struck out the lone batter he faced in Sunday’s game, and wound up with the win after the Phillies scored two runs in the 10th inning.

But what about the players currently ranked as the Phillies’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America?

Has Darin Ruf started to heat up?  How did Jesse Biddle bounce back from his rough outing last week?  Did Ethan Martin improve his command in his two starts this past week?

Let’s take a look at which players’ stocks are up and which are down following Week 6.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Predicting All-Star Break Win Totals for Each of Philadelphia Phillies’ Starters

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ starting pitching rotation has been similar to that of a revolving door with squeaky hinges.

Injuries and inconsistency have riddled the Phillies’ staff while Kyle Kendrick has performed as Philadelphia’s ace in the hole.

The 2013 Major League Baseball All-Star Game is to be played on July 16 at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets. That’s 64 days away for those keeping track at home.

That is an ample amount of time for Phillies starting pitchers to rack up some wins and keep the team in contention.

According to Matt Gelb at Philly.com, the Phillies don’t need a fifth starter until May 21. That fifth starter could be anyone so it seemed appropriate to exclude that spot in this piece rather than speculate.

Following are predictions of the win totals for all four current and healthy Phillies starting pitchers by the Midsummer Classic.

Each pitcher should get about 12 more starts before the All-Star break, give or take a couple starts.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Carlos Zambrano a Viable Option?

Carlos Zambrano is certainly an enigma, but some people have been wondering if the Philadelphia Phillies might be interested in bringing him on board after Roy Halladay and John Lannan landed on the DL. There was even a rumor that the Phillies had already signed him to a contract (debunked by Hardball Talk).

The Phillies apparently have not even gone to scout him yet.

If you ask Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, he would tell you that they might naturally take a look at Zambrano, but they would only do so in the spirit of looking at all of their options.

However, when or if they take a look, could there be any value here?

On the positive side, he is only 31 years old. He has a career 3.66 ERA and is coming off a respectable season with the Miami Marlins. In 2012, while his record was only 7-10, his ERA was 4.49 and his WHIP was 1.496.

Those are certainly not elite numbers like he has flashed at certain times in his 12-year career, but on one level, it seems as if it might be enough to fill a gap for the Phillies.

At 31 years old, there is no reason to believe that he might not get his act back together if given the right opportunity.

On the negative side though, Zambrano does come with a variety of off-the-field issues. I don’t want to dwell on them here, but that is something that the Phillies would need to take into consideration if they were thinking about the right-hander.

Another potential area of concern is the fact that he has been slightly susceptible to fly balls throughout much of his career. Although he actually allowed more ground balls than fly balls last season (209 as opposed to 201), his career numbers have not quite been so positive.

In a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park, that is certainly an issue to be aware of. It might not be the best home park for him.

Overall, while there is absolutely nothing certain about any of this happening, it is an interesting thought to have. Carlos Zambrano is a proven winner at the major league level. Not only that, but bringing him on board would entail a minimal financial investment.

Perhaps in this case, if the Phillies do look at him, and if they do like what they see, it might not be such a bad idea after all.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

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A Eulogy for the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies and a Once Would-Be Dynasty

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for coming.

This is indeed a sad day, as we acknowledge the end of something. In many ways, though, this also should be a happy occasion,  time to remember and celebrate what was.

If you’ll please be seated, we’ll begin the ceremony of saying goodbye to the Philadelphia Phillies and the dynasty that could have been.

 

The Beginning of the End

The Phillies have failed to make it above .500 this season—they’re 16-21 through Friday—but the downfall of this once-proud franchise started well before 2013.

If we were to paint a picture of the very moment this club went from potential dynasty to impending travesty, it would look a little something like this:

That’s Ryan Howard, the highly paid slugging first baseman, slumped on the ground, unable to even run to first base after meekly grounding out and wrecking his Achilles on the final out of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals.

Heading into that postseason, the Phillies were considered the favorites after finishing the regular season with the best record in baseball—by a wide margin—at 102-60, carried primarily by their star-studded, built-for-October rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt.

But in that decisive Game 5, the Cardinals beat the Phillies 1-0, as ace Chris Carpenter was just a little bit better than Halladay, and of course, the Cards would go on to win the World Series—a destiny that many expected of the Phillies.

 

The End Itself

Coming off that disappointment, the Phillies’ window of opportunity already was closing fast, but unfortunately the club was never really able to get going in 2012.

Sure, the Phillies briefly looked back to their old selves (pun intended) when Howard, Halladay and second baseman Chase Ultey finally were all healthy at the same time. In fact, after spending almost the entire season well under .500, Philly actually got back above that mark in mid-September, thanks to a furious run.

But that was just false hope. The franchise that had earned five straight NL East titles, made two straight World Series appearances and won it all in 2008 would miss the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Reality, by this time, was starting to set in, if it hadn’t already.

 

Saying Goodbye

Now? Well, now things are bad and likely to get worse.

You’ve heard about Halladay and how the once-indomitable ace will undergo surgery that could end his season—and perhaps his career as a Phillie, seeing that the right-hander is in line to be a free agent.

Speaking of free agents, Utley is in the final year of his contract, too. There have been rumors that Utley, the longtime heart and soul of this club who performs like an All-Star but approaches every game as if he were fighting tooth and nail to remain on the 25th man roster, could be traded if the club decides to go the seller route.

And while that, too, will be a sad day, if and when it comes to pass, trading Utley might be the right move for general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

Fact is, when you look at the ages, performances and recent injury history of the Phillies’ stars—Halladay, Utley, Howard, Lee and shortstop Jimmy Rollins—almost all of them are going too far in the wrong direction in at least one of those aspects.

 

The Long Climb Back

Perhaps the biggest factor in all of this is the competition.

While the Phillies front office has been hoping to squeeze every last drop out of a core that had the best record in the National League from 2007 through 2011—the Phils went 473-337 (.584) over that five-year stretch—the dynamic of the division they once dominated has changed dramatically.

The Nationals had baseball’s best record a year ago, and the Braves have one of the youngest and most dangerous lineups around. The Phillies aren’t nearly as good and certainly not as young as either of those clubs.

And while things don’t look as promising for the Mets and Marlins right now, both teams have already begun their rebuilding process, so they have a head start on Philadelphia in that respect.

In other words, the Phillies might have a few long seasons ahead of them.

 

The Good Times

But rather than dwell on the future, let’s remember the Phillies’ proud past. After all, there are still plenty of memories from the great years.

Like when Howard won the 2005 NL Rookie of the Year, then MVP a year later, triggering a string of individual awards and team-wide successes.

Or like when Rollins’ 2007 performance earned more MVP hardware.

Or like Halladay’s perfect game, followed by his postseason no-hitter, followed by his Cy Young win—all in 2010, his first year in town.

And of course, who can forget what left-hander Cole Hamels did in the 2008 playoffs, culminating in a strong performance in the World Series-clinching Game 5, which ended a curse and brought the first major sports championship to the city of Philadelphia since 1983.

That seems like as good a note to end our service on as any. So, folks, we’ll ask that you bow your heads in respect and remember what the Philadelphia Phillies achieved.

Could they have done more? Was there supposed to be another title along the way? Should this team—with Utley, Howard, Rollins and Hamels, just an insane run of homegrown talent all clumped together in the mid-aughts—have become a dynasty?

Rather than harp on what could have been, it’s better to appreciate what actually was.

And hold onto those memories. It might be while before the team can make some more.

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Roy Halladay Shoulder: Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios for Phillies Pitcher

Roy Halladay struggled throughout the 2013 season. His arm slot has changed, likely because he was trying to find a comfortable way to get the ball to the plate. That change is common and signals damage inside the shoulder, which is exactly what was found upon imaging.

Halladay will now have arthroscopic surgery to correct a frayed labrum and rotator cuff, as well as clean up bone spurs or debris inside the shoulder.

While damage to the labrum and cuff can be devastating, Halladay and his doctor, Neal ElAttrache of the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic, feel confident that the damage is minor. The biceps, labrum and rotator cuff often work in concert, leading Dr. Stephen O’Brien to call the area the “biceps-labrum complex.”

Minor fraying is an indication that the area has been stressed over time, but has not given out completely. The location of the fraying would be instructive, but as of now, there’s been no comment on this. The likely areas are in the back of the shoulder, where pain from both types of injuries tends to be felt. 

There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue here since the damage is thought to be minor. Did Halladay change his arm slot because of the BLC damage, or did the BLC get damaged because new muscle areas and patterns were created by the arm slot? With fraying, there is less indication of a traumatic event and more one of wear and tear. 

Halladay has been well-used, but seldom has shown any sign of overwork. Comparing Halladay’s workload to other pitchers of this era makes it look that way, but comparing him to players of even the last generation doesn’t appear to indicate any real abuse.

Halladay’s workload in comparison to Roger Clemens is light. Neither was a max-effort pitcher and had great success over the course of a decade. Notably, Clemens came back from shoulder surgery on almost precisely this issue, though his came at the dawn of his career rather than the twilight. 

Halladay’s biomechanics were very stable coming into this year. His delivery was rebuilt in 2000 by Mel Queen, a bold move by the Blue Jays that paid off handsomely.

Halladay’s delivery is unusual, largely the result of Queen dropping his arm slot to a sidearm and increasing the lateral motion created naturally by the mechanics rather than additional spin.

Yes, Halladay is a sidearmer; look at the picture to the right and note that without the tilt of his shoulders, the acromial line—an imaginary line from elbow to elbow, through the shoulders—is almost perfectly flat, while the pitching forearm also stays relatively flat at the point of release. This is not uncommon, though few are as pronounced as Halladay.

During the 2013 season, Halladay often dropped his pitching elbow further. The technique takes pressure off the shoulder.

Try this at home: Put your arm out to a pitcher’s “90-90“, where the pitching arm is extended into the shape of an L. The upper arm is parallel to the floor and extended at a 90-degree angle. The forearm is bent at 90 degrees, putting the forearm parallel to the body.

If you pull the arm back slightly, you will feel some tension at the back of your shoulder. Drop the elbow towards the floor slightly and you will feel that pressure release. However, the shoulder joint itself is now in a much less advantageous position and throwing from this position can cause some issues. 

As Halladay heads to surgery next week, what are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for what happens? Let’s take a look:

 

Best-Case

The best-case is also the expected case. Dr. ElAttrache expects to go into the shoulder arthroscopically and be able to clean up the damage without performing any significant repairs. With the scope, the surgeon can shave down the fraying, remove the bone spurs and other assorted debris and leave Halladay with smooth, healing surfaces. 

Halladay will almost immediately begin to rehab and could be throwing as soon as six to eight weeks afterward. His rehab should move quickly as the shoulder strengthens and is freed up by the repairs. The strength and stamina will have to be built up through a throwing program. Halladay will be able to move quickly if things inside the shoulder aren’t causing pressure or discomfort.

Once Halladay begins to throw, watch for his elbow location in his delivery. If the surgery works, it should be assumed that the elbow will come back up to the normal slot and that the Phillies will see increased control and velocity from Halladay. 

In the best case, Halladay will have no physical setbacks in the rehab process, will show quick comfort in his throwing program and will have to rebuild stamina in order to return, a relatively simple process that Halladay has done many times before. 

 

Worst-Case

The worst-case scenario is that once Dr. ElAttrache gets inside the shoulder, he finds more significant damage. While MRI and other advanced imaging techniques give a good view inside the joint, it is not perfect. There is a reasonable chance that there is more advanced tearing of one or both damaged structures that would necessitate a more significant repair.

Rather than just cleaning things up, the surgeon may have to repair the structures using some combination of fixation (anchors) and repair (stitches), as well as debridement. If there is significant impingement or osseous changes, a simple removal of bone spurs may need to be changed into a resection, where a portion of the bone is shaved or cut off. 

Even if things go well, Halladay may not be able to return this season. While the three-month return will be difficult, seeing Halladay back on a mound this season is quite possible. It would also be normal to see this extend well past the three-month period. Dr. Keith Meister tells his patients that even with a minor repair, the shoulder will need a year or more to return to normal.

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Grading Each Philadelphia Phillies Regular Up to This Point

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a series in San Francisco which saw the resilient Philadelphia squad win two of three games and nearly steal the third game to complete the sweep.

This team is in desperate need of a hot stretch, and maybe this is the beginning.

Or maybe, this team is toying with fans; hence a series split with Miami at home followed by a series win in San Francisco against the defending world champs.

This is inconsistency at its finest.

That inconsistency is modeled perfectly by some of the regular day players while others continue to produce at a steady rate.

Let’s take a look at each Phillies’ regular and quantitatively assess his play with a letter grade.

 

*All statistics from MLB.com.

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Shoulder Surgery Could Be Just What the Doctor Ordered for Roy Halladay

Baseball has finally done it. It’s finally broken Roy Halladay.

And that may not be such a bad thing, for now he can be put back together again rather than merely patched up.

If you haven’t heard the latest news, yes, Doc Halladay is indeed broken. According to the team’s official site, the Philadelphia Phillies right-hander will be going in for surgery on his right shoulder.

The bad news? Halladay, who has an 8.65 ERA in seven starts this season, is going to be out a while.

The not-so-bad news? The surgery may not be major, and the man himself thinks he has a shot to pitch again this season.

Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News was on the scene to collect some quotes from Halladay, who says the surgery is going to “clean up” his labrum and rotator cuff. The bigger issue is a bone spur in his shoulder that’s been causing trouble.

“They said the bone spur, the rotator cuff kept rubbing over it,” said Halladay. “And over time it gradually created more and more of a tear. They want to get that cleaned up and get that out of there.”

And now for the ideal scenario: 

And from what I understand, if they go in and see during surgery what they saw on the exams I have a chance to come back and pitch this year. I have a good chance to come back and pitch this year and hopefully be a lot more effective. They said that my range of motion will be better, my location will be better and hopefully the velocity will be better.

So it’s not a given that his shoulder surgery will be a mere clean-up. But if it is, Halladay could find himself feeling healthy again for the first time in a long time.

In essence: “[The doctor] said he thought they could turn back the clock two or three years for me.”

All bets are off as to exactly how Halladay is going to actually recover from this, mind you. But while I’m not a doctor or Will Carroll, B/R’s resident injury guru, I’m willing to believe that this surgery could indeed result in a reborn Halladay.

For one, it feels long overdue. Per FanGraphs, nobody compiled more innings than Halladay between 2006 and 2011, and he also pitched almost 20 more complete games than the next guy on the list (CC Sabathia). That’s a lot of work for a guy who went from age 29 in 2006 to age 34 in 2011.

Halladay also indicated that the docs are going in to fix some issues that have been there for a while now. He said his labrum and rotator cuff were damaged last season, in which he was on the disabled list for six weeks with shoulder issues. The only thing that might be new is the bone spur, though Halladay wasn’t certain whether or not it was also there last year.

If it was, then Halladay has basically been pitching all this time with a ticking time bomb of a shoulder. It’s certainly been volatile in the meantime, and it finally went off this month.

As Halladay noted, surgery could conceivably result in some added velocity. He could definitely use some, as I’m sure you’ve heard that his average fastball velocity is on the decline.

Here are the numbers from Baseball Info Solutions (via FanGraphs):

• 2011: 92.0 MPH
• 2012: 90.6 MPH
• 2013: 89.6 MPH

Pretty alarming stuff for a guy who threw in the 92-93 range like clockwork between 2008 and 2011.

Just as important, if not more important, is the range of motion that could be gained from surgery. That’s something that could help rescue Halladay’s arm slot, which is very much in need of rescuing. It’s quite literally going down.

The best place to get a glimpse at how much Halladay’s arm slot has dropped is over at BrooksBaseball.net. I’m not supposed to post any of their graphs here, but do yourself a favor and check out the release point plots from three separate starts.

The first: Halladay’s outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2011 NLDS.

The second: Halladay’s outing against the Atlanta Braves last Sept. 22.

The third: Halladay’s most recent outing against the Miami Marlins on May 5.

It’s important to note that all three of these starts were at Citizens Bank Park, meaning we’re talking about the same mound being in play. 

Now, line up the release point plots for those outings up in three separate tabs and scroll through them real quick. What you’ll see is a noticeable drop. Halladay has drifted from an over-the-top release to more of a three-quarter release.

Want actual visuals? Very well.

Here’s a screenshot from Halladay’s start against the Cardinals in 2011:

And here’s one from his start against the Marlins a couple days ago:

See the difference?

No? Alright then, here’s a look at these two images crudely mashed together:

I lined these up as best I could. It’s obviously not a 100 percent accurate overlay, but you can see that the pitching rubber and Halladay’s legs are about in the same spot while his arm is way off. That gives you an idea of how much his release point has dropped in a period of less than two years.

What sort of effect has Halladay’s lowered arm slot had on his pitching?

The biggest would probably be on his control. Halladay’s Zone%—the percentage of pitches he’s thrown inside the strike zone as calculated by Baseball Info Solutions—has gone like so since 2011:

• 2011: 46.7
• 2012: 42.3
• 2013: 43.5

Better this year, but still pretty far off from where Halladay was in 2011, a year in which he had a 2.35 ERA over 233.2 innings.

Not surprisingly, Halladay’s overall strike percentage has gone down as well. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com:

• 2011: 69
• 2012: 67
• 2013: 59

Halladay has gone from being one of the best strike-throwers in the business to being, well, not one of the best strike-throwers in the business. It’s fair to blame his declining arm slot for that.

Again, it must be understood that Halladay’s shoulder surgery may not be so minor. That depends on what the docs see when they actually go in with their tools and whatnot. And even if the surgery is minor, it shouldn’t be taken for granted that Halladay is going to enjoy the benefits he’s been told he could enjoy.

But if things go according to plan, then Halladay will be a good pitcher again. He won’t automatically return to being one of the game’s elite hurlers, but there’s not a pitcher in baseball who can’t at least be effective with good velocity and good location.

Here’s hoping. I know he’s not going to be able to pitch forever, but I don’t believe I’ve had my fill of good Halladay pitching just yet.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Phillies Rumors: Philly Would Be Smart to Explore Trade for Starting Pitcher

Nobody knows how long Roy Halladay will be out of the lineup, and the already pitcher-needy Philadelphia Phillies must now think about making a trade for another starting pitcher. 

MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki broke the sobering news on Monday that Halladay was placed on the 15-day disabled list:

Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported on Monday that the Phillies will be “looking outside” the organization to find a “long-term answer,” along with bringing up a player from the minors:

Zolecki also added the news that the Phillies would be bringing up Joe Savery from Lehigh Valley (AAA) to fill Halladay’s roster spot:

Savery has been a pro since 2007, but he has only three career MLB starts—winning just one game and posting an ERA of 4.71. As a minor-league starter, he’s compiled a career record of 37-32 and has an ERA of 4.01. 

The career minor league pitcher has never displayed the ability to compete at the major-league level, and he’s not going to cut the mustard for the Phillies in 2013, should Halladay’s injury be a long-lasting affair. 

Teammate Cliff Lee didn’t sound optimistic about Halladay’s timetable for a return in a recent interview, via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com:

I hope it’s not major and it’s something minor and he’s back in a couple weeks and jumps back on board…Even if he’s gone forever, there’s nothing we can do. We’ve got to go out there and continue to pitch and try to give the team a chance to win every time you take the mound. All of us.

With a record of 15-18 and most of the season still in front of this team, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. must consider trading for a starting pitcher who can come in and help his ailing club get back on track. 

Steve Adams of mlbtraderumors.com offered a few suggestions as to whom the Phillies could be looking at (purely speculatory, of course). He mentioned Houston Astros pitchers Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell, along with minor leaguers Chris Young (Washington Nationals) and Chien-Ming Wang (New York Yankees).

The bottom line here is that the Phillies must make serious inquiries about acquiring another legitimate starting pitcher. If not, then the the entire season could be in jeopardy.

ESPN’s Buster Olney hypothesized recently that Chase Utley could potentially be put up for auction, should the team’s fortunes not improve:

That would be a most unfortunate development.

Rather than ponder how this team could fall apart at the seams, Amaro, Jr. must do whatever he can to improve his team’s chances of winning. Sure, the Atlanta Braves and Nationals are loaded, but the season is still young.

If there’s a way to turn the ship around, it must be done. Landing a quality starter is one way to ensure it happens, and it’s a move the Phillies must seriously consider.

 

Follow me on Twitter @JesseReed78 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Most Intense Moments in the Phillies-Dodgers Rivalry

The Phillies are in San Francisco as this article posts, and as you may have heard the Giants are the defending world champions.

Little did anyone know at the time, but it was the Giants’ first of their two World Series runs of the last four seasons that started the Phillies’ downward spiral to relative irrelevance.

Cody Ross hitting two home runs off Roy Halladay, and all that followed, was the canary in the coal mine.

While it is easy to envy and dislike the Giants, you would be hard-pressed to call the Giants a rival of the Phillies. The teams play in different divisions three time zones apart.

Of course, that is true for the Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers, too. But the Phillies and Dodgers have been rivals for a long time.

And in a week where Roy Halladay was placed on the disabled list, a week where Phillies fans are once again coming to grips with the likelihood that this recent golden era of Phillies baseball is over, it serves to revisit some happier memories.

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Is Roy Halladay’s Injury the Last Straw in a Philadelphia Phillies Fire Sale?

While the Phillies didn’t have an all-out “fire sale” in 2012, they obviously felt their chances for a playoff spot were slim when they traded away starting outfielders Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino on July 31st.

And who could blame them? At the time of the deal, they were in last place with a 45-57 record and 13 games out of a wild-card spot. They did receive some much-needed bullpen help with Josh Lindblom coming over from the Dodgers in the Victorino trade, but it was evident that both trades were part of a movement toward the future.

In the Pence trade, the Phillies landed prospect Tommy Joseph, who could be the team’s next starting catcher with Carlos Ruiz set to become a free agent after the season, and right-hander Seth Rosin, who has a 3.24 ERA with three walks and 25 strikeouts in 33.1 Double-A innings this season.

In addition to Lindblom, pitching prospect Ethan Martin also came over from the Dodgers. The former first-round pick is struggling in Triple-A (6.35 ERA in six starts), but he was ranked the No. 6 prospect in the organization by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season and allowed just one earned run in six innings on Monday.

A funny thing happened, though, after Pence and Victorino were traded. Someone forgot to tell the remaining Phillies players that the season was over. They went 36-24 the rest of the way and were back in the playoff hunt late in the season.

The front office was hoping the momentum from the last two months of 2012—along with the offseason additions of setup man Mike Adams, third baseman Michael Young and outfielder Delmon Young and the health of their veteran core of players—would push them back to the top of the division in 2013.

It’s still too early to count them out, but it’s going to be tough to surpass the Braves and Nationals—Philly is in third place with a 15-18 record and five games out in the NL East. A healthy Chase Utley (.798 OPS) and Ryan Howard (.783 OPS) help, but with one of the three aces, Roy Halladay, on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, their NL East challenge just got much tougher.

The biggest question surrounding the club at this point is whether it will allow its strong finish to the 2012 season affect how it operates at the trade deadline. Do the Phillies think they have another late-season surge in them, or is this the right time to start cashing in on some valuable trade chips with an eye on adding some young talent to an aging ballclub?

For now, they are expected to fill Halladay’s rotation spot with another young pitcher from the farm system. Still focused on the 2013 season, though, they’ll look externally for a long-term solution.

Amaro said Phillies will go internal for call-up to fill Friday’s starting spot. Also looking outside org for long-term answer.

— Matt Gelb (@magelb) May 6, 2013

At some point, they could start to look ahead if they feel like their roster is simply not good enough to stick around and then make a run as they did last season.

Here’s a look at their projected 2014 roster if they stand pat and hold on to Cliff Lee and all others that won’t become free agents after the season.

Starting Lineup

1 Ben Revere, CF
2 Freddy Galvis, 2B
3 Jimmy Rollins, SS
4 Ryan Howard, 1B
5 John Mayberry, RF
6 Domonic Brown, LF
7 Tommy Joseph, C (pictured)
8 Cody Asche, 3B

Starting Rotation

1 Cole Hamels, LHP
2 Cliff Lee, LHP
3 Kyle Kendrick, RHP
4 Adam Morgan, LHP
5 Jonathan Pettibone, RHP/Jesse Biddle, LHP 

Bullpen

CL Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
SU Mike Adams, RHP
SU Antonio Bastardo, LHP
MID Phillipe Aumont, RHP
MID Justin De Fratus, RHP

Regardless of who the Phillies trade and acquire at the trade deadline, it’s very likely they head into next offseason with a young lineup that features as many as five players 26 years old and under and a projected rotation that could feature two young pitchers who could still have rookie status, depending on how many big league innings they pitch in 2013.

The money coming off the books after the season is substantial ($46 million between Halladay, Ruiz, Utley and M. Young), so there is a chance they go with what they have and try to add another impact bat or two to the lineup.

Trading away Cliff Lee and/or closer Jonathan Papelbon while strengthening the farm system would only create more holes heading into the offseason. A mini-fire sale, focused on the team’s free agents-to-be, would allow the Phillies to add a few more good prospects to the farm system, however, and possibly some more financial relief to go into the free-agency period. And they wouldn’t be as focused on trying to replace Lee at the top of the rotation.

That “free agents-to-be” list includes Halladay, Ruiz, Utley, D. Young and M. Young. 

Carlos Ruiz, C: Trying to trade Ruiz right now would require the Phillies to direct as much attention as possible to his breakout 2012 season (.934 OPS). Since then, he’s had a 25-game suspension for a positive test for amphetamines and two hits in 20 at-bats since his return. They’ll hope he can return to his 2012 form, which would make him a highly sought-after starting catcher at the trade deadline. 

Chase Utley, 2B: A second baseman who could hit anywhere from the No. 2 spot through No. 6 spot on a good team, Utley (pictured) will be a popular man if the Phillies put him on the market. He has a partial no-trade clause that would allow him to block trades to 21 teams, although it’s possible he’d waive it for a chance to go to a playoff competitor down the stretch.

Some very interesting potential destinations are already being thrown around the Twitter-verse.

If PHI doesn’t turn it around, Chase Utley could be one of the most interesting players on the trade market. KC, BAL great possible fits.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 6, 2013

Delmon Young, OF: Even if Young puts up his typical mediocre numbers during the regular season—he’s already on his way (3-for-20)—the Phillies can point at his postseason production over the last three seasons (27-for-94, 8 HR, 2 2B, 3B, 15 RBI) and try to convince a contender of his potential value in October and November. 

Michael Young, 3B: A few teams, including the Dodgers, could use a veteran like Young as their starting third baseman. Several others would find the 36-year-old, who is a career .302 hitter in over 7,500 big league at-bats, to be a valuable role player who can play both corner infield spots or designated hitter in the American League.

Young isn’t showing much power this season (30 of his 37 hits have been singles), but he’s hitting .333. They won’t get much in return but could probably get a live arm with upside to add to the lower minors.   

Roy Halladay, SP: If his shoulder injury is serious and requires more than a few weeks of recovery time, his trade value would all but disappear. A mid-June return would ensure teams get a good look at him to determine if he can help down the stretch. We’ll know more soon. He’ll visit Dr. Lewis Yocum for further evaluation.

An all-out “fire sale,” however, would likely involve the shopping of Lee (pictured), who is owed $75 million, including this year, and as much as $27.5 million more in a vesting option for 2016. Trading the 34-year-old would likely ensure the team gets another elite prospect added to the farm system, at least one more very good prospect, a lot of money off the books but a huge hole in the rotation for 2014.

A look at the organizational depth shows that some help is on the way, but there are a ton of holes on the roster, especially the lineup, heading into 2014. I’d expect the Phillies to look ahead to 2014 at some point during this season, but I think they’ll pass on trading every single player of value in the process. 

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