Philadelphia Phillies: Despite Optimism, Team Proving It’s No Better Than 2012

Entering 2013, it was well-known in baseball circles that the Philadelphia Phillies were supposed to be the hungriest club. Their injury-plagued, star-crossed 2012 campaign, combined with the knowledge that this would probably be a farewell tour for the aging dynasty of the NL East, was supposed to be a recipe for a great rebounding year.

Superficially, the logic made some sense.

For the first time since 2010, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard would both be in the Opening Day lineup. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, both having seasons of anomaly a year ago, would get fresh slates. The eighth-inning woes of the previous season would be solved with the signing of Mike Adams, arguably the best setup man in the game. Throw in a torrid spring training from Domonic Brown, and expectations were sky-high on April 1.

As we sit here on April 18, however, Phillies fans are left sipping a cold glass of reality.

Fifteen games into the 2013 season, the club is 6-9. The offense, which scored 4.22 runs per game in 2012 for their lowest total since 1997, is scoring a pathetic 3.47 runs per game. The pitching staff, whose 3.83 collective ERA in 2012 was supposed to be fixed by good signings and rebound seasons, is pitching to the tune of a 4.90 ERA in 2013, over a full run higher than 2012.

The storylines that made the hearts of Phillies fans happy prior to the season have yet to come to any kind of fruition. Chase Utley is leading the team in home runs and RBI with 3 and 12 respectively, but has struggled to find consistency. His .283 batting average is acceptable, but his high number of ground balls and sudden impatience at the plate are very frustrating.

Ryan Howard has been a non-factor at the plate this season; there’s no other way to put it. The fact that he leads the Phillies in strikeouts with 16 is not overly surprising, but his slash line is. The “Big Piece” is hitting only .241 with a single home run and 5 RBI in 62 plate appearances. His .362 slugging percentage is horrible. Going beyond the stats, Howard looks totally uninterested when the bat is in his hands and seems to be going through the motions.

While Cliff Lee has come out in 2013 ready to put last year’s aberration behind him, he has been replaced with Cole Hamels starting the season off with an aberration of his own, with the newly-signed left-hander starting the season off 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA. Roy Halladay’s problems have seemed to follow him into the new season, as he sits with a 1-2 record and a 7.63 ERA.

Domonic Brown’s great spring seems to have been a complete mirage. Batting just .231 with two home runs and 11 K’s so far, No. 9 looks no different than he did in the first three seasons of his disappointing career. A back injury that he sustained Wednesday night could send him to the disabled list, further cementing his player profile of an injury-prone underachiever.

Mike Adams hasn’t made too many mistakes, but what good is a great setup man when you are always trailing when the eighth inning comes around? The Phillies’ brass arrogantly advertised the Adams-Papelbon duo as the best one-two punch in baseball prior to the season, but the moribundity of the bats coupled with the inability of the rest of the staff to hold a lead going into the eighth inning has led that particular brag to become tantamount to a Miami car salesman bragging about his newest automobile’s terrific heated seats.

Sadly, the most unfortunate part of the lackluster beginning to this season is how predictable this mediocrity should have been. Mr. Amaro, who had been a pretty liberal-spending and gutsy GM in his first few seasons, made the same mistake as Mr. Lurie and Mr. Roseman did across the street. He, along with the rest of the Phillies management, assumed the team would simply take the field on April 1 and be a better team than they were in 2012 simply because they are the Phillies, who won so many division titles and two pennants in recent years past.

The organization decided to ignore the troubling facts going on around them; they chose to believe a middle-relief corps made up of unproven puppies such as Jeremy Horst and Phillippe Aumont and hangers-on of yesteryear such as Chad Durbin and Raul Valdes would suddenly and smoothly become a cohesive and solid group.

They chose to believe that the 40 percent of their starting rotation that owned career ERA’s north of 4 would be a reliable back end that could pitch quality starts, even though neither Kyle Kendrick nor John Lannan ever proved they could do so consistently.

They chose to believe that their outfield, which on Opening Day of 2012 was composed of two All-Stars, would not miss a beat in production going into 2013, even though it was composed of a .235 career hitter who never started an opener, a 24-year-old second-year player who never hit a home run and a 29-year-old who still hasn’t had enough plate appearances in a season to qualify for a batting title.

It doesn’t make any Phillies fan feel any better about the outfield when we cast an eye on our division rivals in the deep south, where we see that Justin Upton, a player for whom Mr. Amaro eschewed trading, is leading the major leagues in home runs with eight.

In closing, I will present a caveat of optimism to this pessimistic article: A 10th of the way through a long MLB season in no way presents the entire story. At this point in the season, simply winning three or four games in a row can give an entirely different feel and look to a ballclub.

But as optimistic predictions turn into real statistics and standings, we are taught a cautionary tale about this game of baseball: numbers on the backs of jerseys and numbers in those players’ pasts don’t determine success. What does is producing at the plate and on the mound, which the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies better start doing, and fast.

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Philadelphia Phillies Minor Leaguers Who Will See Time in the Majors This Season

The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled in the 2013 season so far. For the first six or seven games, the offense was on fire but the pitching staff was allowing too many runs, save for Cliff Lee. Then, in the last six or seven games, the offense has been anemic, to say the least, while the pitching staff has regained its composure.

It’s been one of the more puzzling starts to a Phillies season in recent history, and while it’s only April, it still provides cause for concern. At this point in time, everybody is healthy and the team should be at its best. If this is the best the Phillies can do, should fans be concerned that the season will turn out to be somewhere around .500 like last year?

Nevertheless, the Phillies stand at 6-9 after a humiliating 11-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds last night, giving them the series sweep. And it’s not like the Reds were a great team, either—entering the series, Cincinnati was just 5-7 with many an offensive player failing to produce.

If this trend continues, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. could look to trade away some of his big league pieces in the first stages of a potential rebuild. Folks, it may be time to say that the Phillies’ dynasty of dominance has too quickly come to a close.

Putting the total negativity aside, if players are traded, injured, or the team does fall out of contention to the point that they want to see what they have lying around in the farm system, minor leaguers will be called up throughout the season. Here’s a list of those who could find themselves with—or back with—the Phillies by the end of the 2013 regular season.

*All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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Philadelphia Phillies: What Position Should First-Round Draft Pick Be Spent On?

Ordinarily, you could answer a question like this via simple process of elimination. What do you already have? Once you know that, you know what you need.

Except, with this Phillies team, the answer to the primary question is a bit troubling.

The Phillies have a young, dynamic center fielder in Ben Revere. After that? You tell me.

Maybe you can say they have a young left fielder with some upside left in Domonic Brown. But after tearing it up at spring training, Brown is back to his old underwhelming self, hitting .240 in the early going, or just a few ticks above his career average.

Beyond Revere and Brown, the Phillies do not have an everyday player younger than 30 years of age.

If the Phillies were a dynasty league fantasy team, its owner would making three-for-one and four-for-one trades for keepers and playing for next year.

Good luck to the Phillies there, though. Only in fantasyland would Ryan Howard be tradeable with three seasons and $85 million left on his deal while hitting .245 and slugging .377 thus far this season.

Perhaps the only really good news for the Phillies as far as the upcoming Major League Baseball draft is concerned is that, with so many players (Roy Halladay, Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Michael Young) reaching the end of their contracts, major league spots will become available for some of the talent in the system.

When that happens, minor league spots open up for the Phillies’ new draftees—one of whom figures to be the 16th overall pick.

As such, it bears considering what the Phillies already have in the minor leagues by way of players that might be ready to play for the big club sooner than later.

From a raw-skills perspective, catcher Tommy Joseph and shortstop Roman Quinn may be the most ready to make the leap in the short term.

Quinn is blocked next season by incumbent Jimmy Rollins…in theory. In fact, Rollins might be willing to accept a trade to a contender rather than sit through a rebuild.

Quinn has six errors in 11 games at Single-A Lakewood thus far in 2013, though, so it would probably behoove both the Phillies and Quinn for Rollins to play out his contract in Philadelphia. Regardless, the Phillies do not need to spend this first-round pick on a shortstop.

Joseph is off to his own slow start at AAA Lehigh Valley, but with Ruiz likely to be gone after this season the 2014 job seems like it is Joseph’s to lose. And Sebastian Valle is in the wings behind Joseph. Catcher is another position where this pick makes no sense.

Third base prospects Cody Asche (Lehigh Valley) and Maikel Franco (Single-A Clearwater) look to be the future at that position. Asche, particularly, is really struggling at Lehigh Valley—he is hitting under .200 in the early going—but he will have all year to sort things out while Michael Young plays for a new contract.

With Utley likely leaving after his deal expires, second base will be open. But Freddy Galvis could slot quickly and cheaply there, and he is still a very young player.

We already addressed the ugly logjam at first base.

At least for a couple of seasons, the Phillies’ starting pitching situation seems largely settled. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will be anchoring the staff for the next two seasons (at least).

Help is on the way from the minors, as highly regarded prospects Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin and Adam Morgan have all risen to Lehigh Valley.

And the best arm in the system, Jesse Biddle, is already at AA Reading.

So with all of that said, it seems process of elimination will work just fine after all. The Phillies have reasonable plans for every position on the diamond except for the corners in the outfield.

The Darin Ruf left field experiment failed miserably in Clearwater, and as of this writing, he is hitting .279 at Lehigh Valley. With no home runs.

The Phillies should spend their first-round pick in the upcoming draft on a corner outfielder. Preferably one who can hit for power and average.

Whether one of those players will still be on the board at No. 16 remains to be seen.

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Selecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ All-Time Dream Team

Prior to the current run of sustained success in Philadelphia, putting together an all-time dream team for the Philadelphia Phillies would have likely resulted in a satire piece featuring luminaries such as Robert Person, Steve Jeltz and Rico Brogna.

Of course, times have changed. National League East titles, playoff appearances, NL MVPs, star acquisitions, a new ballpark and, of course, a World Series championship have all contributed to change the perception of the Phillies franchise.

Ironically, it’s also why the fans are struggling in 2013 to come to grips with a window of opportunity that is closing. Not only are the memories of winning fresh, but the contributors from that group are still with the ballclub.

Here is my take on selecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ All-Time Dream Team.

 

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz (2006-present, 106 OPS+, 1x All-Star, 15.2 WAR): Chooch wasn’t the first to come to mind, but his place on a World Series championship team, starting for the 2008 champs, and  improving bat vaulted him above Darren Daulton and Mike Lieberthal. His 15.2 WAR lies below Daulton, but Ruiz has accomplished the feat in just over six big league seasons. It took Daulton well over a decade to give that kind of value to the organization. 

 

First baseman 

Ryan Howard (2004-present, 135 OPS+, 3x All-Star, 2006 NL MVP, 18.1 WAR): While it’s easy to be critical of an aging, declining Howard right now, don’t forget the player he was when emerging from an overextended stay in the minors. From 2006-2009, Howard was one of, if not the, most feared hitters in the game.

Howard ranks second on the all-time Phillies franchise lists for slugging percentage and home runs. Anyone who cranks out nearly 200 home runs in four seasons, including 58 in 2006, deserves a spot on this team. 

 

Second baseman 

Chase Utley (2003-present, 126 OPS+, 5x All-Star, 55.2 WAR): During Howard’s MVP season and home run barrage, Utley’s Cooperstown-caliber play next to the Big Piece on the right side of the infield was lost in the national shuffle. In Philadelphia, they’ve always seemed to understand the privilege of watching Utley play.

Among the all-time Phillies ranks, Utley is fourth in WAR and a good bet to catch and pass Richie Ashburn for third sometime this summer. If his knees and hips hold up, Philadelphia will face an interesting dilemma in deciding on a contract offer for Utley next winter. 

 

Third baseman 

Mike Schmidt (1972-1989, 147 OPS+, 12x All-Star, 3x NL MVP, 106.5 WAR): Michael Jack Schmidt wasn’t just the easy choice for greatest Phillies third baseman in history, he’s arguably the greatest player to man the hot corner in the history of the game.

The 548 home runs and Gold Glove defense equals a player whom Baseball-Reference.com credits with more value than all but 25 players in the history of baseball. Among those with less career WAR than Schmidt: Randy Johnson, Joe Morgan, Cal Ripken and Albert Pujols. 

 

Shortstop 

Jimmy Rollins (2000-present, 97 OPS+, 3x All-Star, 2007 NL MVP, 42.0 WAR): As J-Roll continues to display exemplary durability and athletic ability through the years, his climb up Philadelphia’s all-time lists are inevitable.

The greatest Phillies shortstop in history also will present baseball historians with a more difficult task when his career ends: voting yes or no to induction into Cooperstown. What once seemed like an easy debate, or, in other words, there wasn’t a shot, now has become an interesting topic. Either way, his leadership, durability and all-around game will land him in the Phillies Hall of Fame.

 

Outfield

Richie Ashburn (1948-1959, 111 OPS+, 4x All-Star, 57.2 WAR): The 1995 Hall of Fame inductee should need no introduction to Philadelphia faithful. Ashburn debuted and starred before his time, becoming one of the most disciplined hitters of the ’50s on his way to four different seasons of .400-plus on-base percentage marks and two 100-plus walk seasons.

Despite power numbers that were pedestrian (29 career home runs), Ashburn’s ability to get on base would make him one of the most sought after players in the game today. On this dream team, he’s the natural choice to leadoff.

 

 

Chuck Klein (1928-1933, 1936-1938, 1939, 1940-1944; 139 OPS+, 2x All-Star, 34.9 WAR): Despite four separate stints in Philadelphia, Klein made his mark on the record books. While playing in an offensive era surely boosted his numbers, the five-year run between 1929-1933 (1.050 OPS, 1,982 total bases) are video-game numbers in a pre-video-game world.

 

 

Bobby Abreu (1998-2006, 139 OPS+, 2x All-Star, 47.0 WAR): Before you scoff at the notion of Bob Kelly Abreu as an all-time Phillie and member of this dream team, please drop the narrative that he was a “losing” player and the team won in the years after he left simply because he was traded to New York.

Instead, consider these facts: Abreu posted a .400-plus on-base percentage in eight out of his nine seasons in Philadelphia, posted six 20-20 campaigns and received MVP votes in more than half of his years with the club. Like it or not, the guy was a tremendous all-around talent.

 

Starting pitchers 

1. Steve Carlton (1972-1986, 120 ERA+, 7x All-Star, 4x Cy Young winner, 64.6 WAR): It starts and ends with Lefty at the top of this dream team rotation. Of all the accomplishments in a Phillies uniform, Carlton’s 1972 season stands out. Coming over in a lopsided, to put it mildly, trade for Rick Wise, Carlton’s contract dispute in St. Louis turned out to be Philadelphia’s big gain.

There have been many great individual pitching seasons in baseball history, but Carlton’s 12.1 WAR in 1972 ranks among the greatest performances ever. Considering the team record of 59-97, Carlton’s 27-10 record is eye-opening. If he was given better talent to pitch behind, it’s not crazy to think Lefty could have won 35 games that season. 

 

2. Robin Roberts (1948-1961, 114 ERA+, 7x All-Star, 69.7 WAR): While the philosophy behind voting for individual awards has changed over the years and decades, it’s worth noting that Roberts placed in the Top 10 for NL MVP voting during five of his seasons in Philadelphia. Voters may not have been in tune with wins above replacement in the mid-’50s, but six straight years of 300-plus innings transcends advanced metrics and baseball research. 

 

3. Curt Schilling (1992-2000, 126 ERA+, 3x All-Star, 36.8 WAR): The results of the 2013 Hall of Fame voting aside, Schilling was one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball, let alone the Philadelphia Phillies.

Of course, some in Philadelphia would argue that many of his best seasons came after leaving. That’s true, but don’t discount what he did while there. From 1992-1999, Schilling’s eight full seasons in Philadelphia, he ranked 11th in ERA+, fifth in strikeouts, third in complete games and second in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

 

4. Cole Hamels (2006-present, 124 ERA+, 3x All-Star, 2008 World Series MVP, 28.7 WAR): Considering his relative youth and career on the horizon, let’s focus on Hamels among every pitcher in baseball since debuting in 2006. Over that span, the lifetime Phil ranks sixth in strikeouts, 11th in IP, ninth in ERA+ and fourth in K/9. His dominance is only just beginning, folks.

 

 

5. Cliff Lee (2009, 2011-present; 142 ERA+, 1x All-Star, 15.3 WAR): Surprised? If you’ve truly watched Lee evolve into one of the most consistently dominant arms in the game, you shouldn’t be. Throw out the W-L record of 2012. Instead, focus on what he brings to the mound each and every time: otherworldly strike-throwing ability.

In the history of baseball, Lee ranks sixth in career strikeout-to-walk ratio with a mark of 3.68. Ironically, Phillies history is littered throughout the top five. Curt Schilling is the best ever. Roy Halladay, who just missed out on this list, ranks fifth.

 

Closer 

Brad Lidge (2008-2011, 113 ERA+, 1x All-Star, 1.7 WAR): When it comes to Brad Lidge, throw out the middle and the end. When assessing which relief pitcher in Phillies history belongs on their dream team, Lidge’s perfect 2008 season, capped off by striking out Eric Hinkse to seal the World Series, is all the matters. Outside of Mariano Rivera, every closer is violate. Somehow, someway, Lidge found a way to channel his ability into one storybook season.

 

*Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

 

Agree? Disagree? Who would be on your all-time dream team in Philadelphia? Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball!

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 2

With multiple starting pitchers, a third baseman, second baseman and catcher among the list of potential free agents for the Philadelphia Phillies following this season, it doesn’t hurt to monitor the progress of certain minor league prospects.

The season is only two weeks old, so there is still plenty of time for these prospects to improve their game or, unfortunately, regress by the end of the season.

As of now, however, a player such as Darin Ruf has a chance to remain on the Phillies’ radar for this season while players such as Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph could enter into the 2014 picture. 

Although the Phillies have plenty of prospects worth monitoring, the following list contains only those players listed by Baseball America as the team’s top 10 prospects.

With that in mind, here is a list of which players’ stocks are up and which are down following week two.

 

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Drunk Phillies Fan Gets Branded with Hot Spatula at Tailgate

Mmmm, breathe it in.

That’s the fresh air of baseball season—hot dogs cooking on the grill, beer brats stewing in their juices and the acrid smell of human flesh burning in the parking lot. 

Yes, “human being” was added to the list of things cooking outside Citizens Bank Park when one Philadelphia Phillies fan became far too overzealous with his use of barbecuing instruments and seared a hot-off-the-grill spatula into the buttocks of another Phillies fan. 

Warning: Video contains nudity, people-burning and profanity. So know that.

It’s well known that Phillies fans at tailgates get weirder and rowdier than a forest of drunk fruit bats, and this incident begs a handful of questions.

Which came first: The drunk guy laying on the ground or the idea to sear the spatula into another human being? Did he pass out there with his pants down? Or did this individual willingly lay down for this futile experiment?

Obviously, there had to have been riot punch consumed before this unceremonious occasion, considering only a beverage with a heavy payload of grain alcohol could keep a man this calm while being branded. 

We’ve seen some strange things happen at Phillies games, however, not the least of which involved a young fan storming the field in 2010 and receiving a taser blast courtesy of stadium security. 

Or blasting each other with Roman candles and flipping cars while celebrating winning their way into the World Series in 2009.

As you can see, this spatula incident is just the latest and most painful occurrence that Phillies fans have inflicted on one another, and it’s not likely to be the last thing we see from this season.

In the meantime, someone get this man some rubbing alcohol or some riot punch to sterilize his burned bottom.

Nothing says “Go team” like grill marks: Dr__Carson

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Hottest Starts to the Season That Will Continue

Thus far, the Philadelphia Phillies‘ season has been loaded with disappointment. Roy Halladay hasn’t found his niche after an equally rough spring training. Ryan Howard just hit his first home run of the season on Tuesday. Ben Revere and Domonic Brown have struggled to get on base. Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick have looked mediocre. Carlos Ruiz remains suspended until April 28. And let’s not forget that the Phillies sit at 4-5, under .500, through the first nine games of the season.

While there has been disappointment—some of it expected, some not—there has also been some difference-makers in the games won. John Lannan looked solid in his Phillies debut and so far is second only to Cliff Lee in ERA among starting pitchers. Speaking of Lee, he’s been on absolute fire, and little looks like it will slow him down. Hard to believe it’s the same guy that didn’t get his first win until July last year (not that it was his fault).

Along with Lee, there are a few players on the Phillies who are in the midst of a hot streak to start the 2013 season. Here’s a list of those players who are both hot now and will continue to be as the season progresses.

*All regular season stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com and all spring training stats courtesy of Phillies.com unless otherwise noted.

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Early-Season Philadelphia Phillies Story Lines to Follow Most Closely

The landscape of baseball in Philadelphia changed quickly and swiftly when the Phillies began their run of postseason trips, World Series appearances and of course, a parade down Broad Street in November of 2008.

For years, sports talker WIP was filtered with daily calls about the Eagles’ direction, fans lamenting the lack of clock management from Andy Reid and the big-game failures of Donovan McNabb.

Attending a game at Veterans Stadium or the new Citizens Bank Park in the early 2000’s was an open invitation to participate in E-A-G-L-E-S chants rather than breaking down David Bell’s swing.

As the fanbase emerged from a long, cold winter, so did the spotlight. When things are good, the fans will fill the stands and love their Phillies.

When they are bad, as they may be in 2013, the scrutiny will know no bounds.

Here are early-season story lines, both positive and negative, to follow most closely early this season.

 

 

Roy Halladay’s battle with decline

The signs of decline and waning confidence are impossible to miss when assessing Roy Halladay early on in 2013.

If Doc can’t locate his fastball, fix his mental block, make hitters uncomfortable in the box and continue to strike out hitters at a high rate, the Phillies are in trouble every time he takes the mound.

And make no mistake, Halladay will be taking the mound every fifth day (via Todd Zolecki MLBlogs Network). In fact, Charlie Manuel compared his loyalty towards Doc with what the team suffered through with Brad Lidge in 2009.

In other words, unless there is an injury, Halladay will make his scheduled starts throughout the season.

If he rebounds, Philadelphia will be rewarded with their patience. If he doesn’t, the team will suffer.

 

 

Chase Utley’s return to star status

From 2005-2010, Chase Utley put together one of the greatest offensive stretches for a second baseman in baseball history.

His .911 OPS and 133 OPS+ wasn’t just good; it was spectacular.

Second baseman, catchers, shortstops and center fielders are often judged by different offensive criteria. They’re not expected to hit like corner infielders and outfielders.

Isolating Utley’s ranks in comparison to other second baseman would make him look good; doing it against every hitter in baseball makes him look great.

The 133 OPS+ ranked 18th overall during that time frame. The .911 OPS was 12th.

Early on in 2013, after battling knee and hip ailments, Utley’s swing and torque in the box look like they did during his Hall of Fame-caliber seasons.

 

Cliff Lee‘s excellence and potential trade market

As Lee showed once again on Tuesday night, he’s still a tremendous pitcher. Throw out the substandard win-loss record of 2012—really throw out all W-L records out when assessing pitchers—and focus on the strike-throwing machine Lee continues to be for Philadelphia.

The 34-year-old lefty is probably a good bet to remain the best pitcher in Philadelphia through July. At that point, he may have a new address.

It’s no secret that Ruben Amaro Jr. shopped Lee and his hefty future price tag last July and August. If the Phillies are out of the race at that point this summer, it may be easier to make the move and clear future salary off the books.

The better Lee pitches over the next few months, the more leverage Amaro has in a possible deal. The franchise can either eat money and receive top prospects in return, expediting a rebuild, or convince a contender to take on the remainder of his excess contract.

 

Ryan Howard’s impotent bat

If not for Roy Halladay’s struggles, Ryan Howard’s swing would be the main topic of conversation in Philadelphia today. Despite his first long ball of the year on Tuesday night against the Mets, Howard’s early-season numbers are continuing a precipitous down trend that can’t be ignored.

The following are Howard’s year-by-year on-base plus slugging percentages from 2009-present:

2009: .931
2010: .859
2011: .835
2012: .718
2013: .464

Age, defensive shifts and injury have been the excuses over the past few seasons. Small sample size is the current defensive mechanism for the Howard supporters.

As all of Philadelphia will eventually realize, it’s not 2006 or 2007 anymore. That Ryan Howard is likely to never return.

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a decent or good slugger for Charlie Manuel, but he’s likely never going to be worth the $85 million he’s guaranteed to earn from 2014-2016, including a $10 million buyout prior to 2017.

 

Charlie Manuel’s future

Uncomfortable is the only word to describe the Phillies’ current system of managerial apprenticeship. It’s widely assumed that Ryne Sandberg, the one-time Phillie who got away, is the apple of the front office eye and the future manager in Philadelphia.

That’s what makes his inclusion on Charlie Manuel’s coaching staff so strange this season. Factor in Manuel’s desire to continue managing, perturbed attitude this spring and lack of contract beyond 2013, and there’s a situation that bears watching in Philadelphia.

If Philadelphia struggles, would management consider a switch from Manuel to Sandberg in midseason?

Would a big season cause Manuel to ask for, and receive, a contract extension, virtually costing the Phillies organization Sandberg for the second time?

Will the media and fans, vocal in their displeasure of Manuel as an in-game strategist (via charliesmanuel.org), call for his job if the gaffes continue?

Stability has been one of Philadelphia’s biggest attributes since Manuel walked in the door in 2005.

It may soon be one of their biggest question marks.

 

Which Phillies’ story line are you watching most closely?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter, or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball!

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who You Want Up Most with the Game on the Line

Allow me to set the scene.

It is Game 7 of the World Series and your team, let’s say the Philadelphia Phillies, is down by just one run in the bottom of the ninth. There are runners on second and third, so chances are any outfield hit is going to win the game. The problem is, the opposing team is throwing its closer and you are down to just one out, one strike remaining. This is your only chance to win the game.

And that is where the age-old, heavily debated, baseball question is asked: “With the game on the line, who do you want taking that final swing?”

Fans of every team everywhere and at every point in time have likely discussed, debated, analyzed and put some thought into who on their team they would want at the dish in a do-or-die situation.

The only problem for teams, however, is that more often than not, they really don’t have a choice of who takes the final swing. In fact, unless a pinch hitter is substituted, whoever just so happens to be up is the guy who will bat.

So with that being said, there are of course reasons why you want Ryan Howard taking the final swing as opposed to Freddy Galvis, for example.

These reasons include a certain confidence factor, the all-important and hopefully ever-present “clutch gene,” an overall recent body of work and of course, the ability to hit in tough situations with runners on base, an 0-2 count and an average with RISP.

Here are the five guys on the Phillies who meet most, if not all, of these requirements and really are the guys any fan would love to have at bat in the ninth inning or later with the game on the line.

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Exposing What Has Changed for Phillies’ Roy Halladay During Recent Tailspin

There’s clearly something wrong with Roy Halladay. Your eyes say so, and so do the gory numbers.

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ veteran right-hander has made two starts so far in 2013, and neither of them have been good. His totals: 7.1 innings pitched, 12 hits, six walks, three home runs, one hit batsman and two wild pitches.

Doc Halladay’s ERA after two starts is 14.73. His WHIP is 2.46. His confidence, meanwhile, has seen better days.

“This is a game of failure and I’ve had my fair share,” said Halladay after Monday’s beating at the hands of the New York Mets, via CSNPhilly.com. “Some days you’re a horse and some days you’re a horse’s [rear]. I’ve been a horse’s [rear] for a little while. It’s something I’ve dealt with in the past and I think I can overcome.”

Maybe Halladay’s right, but he shouldn’t hold out hope of recapturing his old dominant ways from 2010 and 2011. It looks like that ship has sailed.

One way you can tell is by looking at Halladay’s velocity. It’s been at the center of all the “What’s wrong with Doc?” talk both in the early goings this season and most of last season, and the numbers reveal a clear decline that’s continuing so far this year.

To the right is a look at Halladay’s average sinker (i.e. two-seamer) and cutter velocity from 2010 until now, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

The precise velocity numbers are going to differ depending on which site you consult. FanGraphs, for example, offers its own PITCHf/x data and data from Baseball Info Solutions. That noted, the trend is the same there: Halladay’s velocity is clearly down.

One acceptable objection to this data is that Halladay’s in the same boat as every other pitcher this time of year—he’s still building arm strength. Once he has it, his velocity will be there.

Fair enough, so let’s narrow things down a little and compare Halladay’s average sinker and cutter velocity from his first two starts this year to his average sinker and cutter velocity from 2011 and 2012 (there doesn’t appear to be any record for his first start in 2010, so we’ll skip that year).

Here you can see that Halladay had about the same kind of zip on his sinker and cutter on Monday night against the Mets that he did in his first start last year. That’s a revelation that’s slightly more encouraging than the above revelation. 

The key word there, however, is “slightly.”

The velocity readings here are still down relative to where Halladay was in 2011, a year in which he finished second in the National League Cy Young balloting on the strength of a 19-6 record and a 2.35 ERA. However, you’ll notice by comparing the two graphs that his final velocity readings for 2011 really weren’t that far off from his early-April velocity readings

You can see by comparing the two graphs that Halladay’s velocity didn’t budge much throughout the 2012 season either. His player card on BrooksBaseball.net will show that he added some velocity in May, but then he came down with that shoulder injury that sidelined him through mid-July and effectively killed his quest to regain his velocity.

That’s both encouraging and discouraging at the same time.

It’s encouraging because Halladay may have finished last season with respectable velocity readings had he not hurt his shoulder, which means he might be able to ramp up his velocity this year if his shoulder behaves.

It’s discouraging, however, because it’s impossible to ignore the correlation between Halladay’s increasing velocity in May last year and his sudden shoulder injury. The fact that he didn’t ramp up his velocity the rest of the year could be taken as a sign that his shoulder can now only handle so much.

The radar gun readings aren’t the only thing that makes you wonder about Halladay’s shoulder. 

If you’ve been paying attention to the Halladay doom watch, you’ll know that low velocity readings aren’t the only cause for concern around the campfire. There’s also been talk about his arm slot, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted after Halladay’s first start against the Atlanta Braves.

Here’s where I can’t resort to fancy graphics to show you what’s going on, because, well, the fancy graphics I want to show you don’t belong to me. The best I can do is point you in the right direction.

What I want you to do is open up three tabs: One for Halladay’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS, one for a start he made against the Atlanta Braves last September 22, and one for his start against the Mets on Monday night. All three starts were at Citizens Bank Park, so we’re talking about the same mound being in play.

Now I want you to scroll down on each one to the graphs titled “Release Point.” If you look at the vertical location, you’ll notice that the height of Halladay’s release point goes from above six feet, to right about at six feet to below six feet.

If you can see that, then you can see what all the fuss is about. Halladay is throwing from a different arm slot, and it is lower.

One explanation for this is the shoulder injury Halladay suffered last year. It could also be intentional, which is certainly possible seeing as how there was a report from Todd Zolecki of MLB.com in March that Halladay was working to “fix some things with his delivery.” 

Regardless of the explanation, we know we’re watching a different Doc. He’s throwing differently, and he’s not throwing hard.

As for deception, well, consider the following. It’s a look at how hitters have performed against Halladay’s four primary pitches (sinker, cutter, curveball, splitter/split-change) since 2010, including his first two starts this year. If you don’t know what ISO is, it stands for Isolated Power and it’s essentially a slugging percentage that doesn’t take singles into account.

You can see that the slow stuff is working just fine in the early goings. Halladay’s only given up a couple hits on his primary off-speed pitches, and it’s worth noting that they’re responsible for 11 of his 12 strikeouts on the young season.

But the hard stuff? Not so much. A look back at the three homers Halladay has given up can give us a clue as to why that is.

The following links will take you over to MLB.com for the video highlights, but I’m going to provide some screencaps and some commentary along the way.

For starters, take a look at the pitch that Justin Upton launched for a homer off Halladay.

You can see that Erik Kratz set up low and inside for what looked like a cutter meant to freeze Upton for strike three. Instead, watch how the pitch floated over the middle of the plate—”no bueno” territory for any pitcher.

Granted, at least the pitch was a low one. Halladay may have gotten away with it if he was facing a lesser hitter. But he was facing a very good, very hot hitter, and said hitter didn’t miss.

Now take a look back at the ball that Evan Gattis sent out of the yard. While watching the video, look where Kratz sets up and then watch where the pitch ends up.

You’ll see that Kratz set up low and away for a pitch on the black, but that the pitch Halladay threw was an 88-mile-per-hour heater with virtually no movement that ended up right at Gattis‘ belt on the inside part of the plate. 

That’s the kind of mistake you can make if you’re throwing 98 MPH, but not 88. Sure enough, Gattis murdered it.

And lastly, check out the pitch that John Buck hit out of the yard on Monday night. Once again, watch where the catcher set up and where the pitch went.

Humberto Quintero set up on the outside corner to receive the pitch, and Halladay at least got the ball to the right side of the plate. However, he left it a little higher than Buck’s knees, and Buck put a very good swing on it for a home run to the opposite field.

So, of the three homers Halladay has given up this year, it’s fair to say that all three came on mistake pitches.

That would be forgivable if this was 2010 or 2011, but it’s not so forgivable now, because A) we know that Halladay isn’t making few mistakes and B) he’s clearly not going to be able to get away with the ones he does make.

Halladay’s command has been all over the place thus far. He’s walked six men in 7.1 innings, and FanGraphs‘ plate discipline data shows that, not surprisingly, he’s throwing fewer pitches inside the strike zone (look at Zone%). What’s worse is that the three pitches we just looked at show that Halladay’s command within the strike zone is lacking, and that, again, he just doesn’t have the stuff to get away with mistakes.

And that, obviously, is not the Halladay we all used to know and love. The Halladay we all knew and loved had some of the best pinpoint control in the business, not to mention stuff that had a fair amount of zip and absolutely no regard for the laws of physics.

If you’re an optimist, you see that Halladay is working with a new release point and that he’s still working out the kinks. He didn’t get much of a spring training, after all, as he was bothered by an illness and had to labor through some short outings.

But it’s nigh impossible to be anything other than realistic about what’s going on. Halladay looked like a ruined pitcher last season when he posted a 4.93 ERA in 14 starts after coming back from the disabled list in July, and he looks like even more of a ruined pitcher now.

That’s my smarty-pants assessment of what’s become of Halladay. My not-so-smarty-pants assessment of him can be summed up with two words that I think everyone will agree with: This sucks.

 

Note: Special thanks to BrooksBaseball.net for the data.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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