4 Things We Have Already Learned About Roy Halladay in 2013

Roy Halladay came into the 2013 season with question marks surrounding his performance as a co-ace in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation.

Through two awful, uncharacteristic starts, Doc is leaving fans and analysts with more questions than answers. His 14.73 ERA isn’t just unsightly; it’s unfathomable.

That is, of course, until you watch and dissect what he’s doing or, more aptly, not doing on the mound.

It’s early, but Doc’s season and career have reached a crossroads. For the Phillies to rebound from the disappointment of an 81-81 campaign in 2012, Halladay’s performance is crucial.

As he searches for answers, trends in his performance and approach can be spotted.

Here are four things we have already learned about Roy Halladay in 2013.

 

1. He doesn’t trust his fastball

Percentage of time Roy Halladay has thrown his fastball since arriving in Philly, 2010-present, year-by-year: 37.4, 22.6, 19.4, 17.9. Yikes.

The main concern around Doc has been velocity, but surviving in the 87-89 mph range can happen for a smart, efficient pitcher if he trusts himself to locate that pitch on the corners and down in the zone.

Those numbers, via the indispensable Baseball Info Solutions, show a pitcher who is more comfortable throwing breaking and off-speed stuff, regardless of the count or batter.

Much of Doc’s greatness stems from getting ahead in the count. That’s something he’s failing to do at an alarming rate early in the season.

Last week, Halladay only threw 57.9 percent of his pitches for strikes in Atlanta. In 378 career starts, he’s only posted a lower percentage in 15 of those starts. On Monday, he got ahead with first-pitch strikes to only 10 of the 22 hitters faced. No matter how good his secondary stuff is, Halladay must get ahead with his fastball to survive.

When he throws the fastball, he lacks command and falls behind. Thus, he’s abandoning the pitch almost entirely, narrowing the options for hitters to focus on.

 

2. Mental, not physical, issues are the problem

That’s the explanation Halladay gave to reporters in Philadelphia on Monday night. If that is the case, the bigger issue might be Doc reverting into the pre-star form he showed in Toronto.

When Halladay lost the strike zone, was unable to retire hitters with any regularity and became mentally lost as a young pitcher, Toronto sent him down to Low-A ball. That’s the story fans have heard over and over.

What’s less publicized is the guidance provided by the late sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman.

Halladay mentioned a quote that Dorfman relayed to him when assessing his mental issues on the mound.

“Harvey used to tell me when you try to catch a bird, if you’re flailing at it, trying to grab for it, you’re never going to catch it,” Halladay said to CSN Philly. “You have to hold your hands out and let it land in your hands. It’s the same way with pitching. You have to stick to your routine, stick to your program and let it come to you.”

It’s clear that one of the smartest and most cerebral pitchers in baseball is over-thinking his approach on the mound.

 

3. Opposing batters are no longer uncomfortable in the box

Usually terms like “uncomfortable” are reserved for power pitchers and hard-throwers. For example, Matt Harvey, the young, ascending Mets right-hander, made the Phillies batters look uncomfortable all night long.

In his prime, despite never possessing an overpowering fastball like Randy Johnson or Justin Verlander, Halladay had the ability to make the box batters enter his domain—intimidating for hitters to step in and never a place to feel comfortable.

Due to his inconsistency, lack of confidence and an even further drop in velocity, that feeling is gone.

In the fourth inning of Monday night’s game with New York, Matt Harvey, the opposing pitcher, worked a nine-pitch at-bat. To put that in perspective, Halladay has twice thrown complete games with less than 90 total pitches. If Matt Harvey can battle and foul pitches off, real hitters can tee-off.

It took 95 pitches for Doc to get through 3.1 IP in Atlanta. Monday night, 99 were needed to retire 12 batters. At this rate, we’ll never see another complete game from Halladay again.

 

4. An encouraging sign: Halladay is still missing bats at a high rate

As with everything else, this should be prefaced with the following words: Small. Sample. Size.

That being said, Halladay does have one thing going for him early on this season: strikeouts.

In fact, his 12 strikeouts in 7.1 IP is good enough for a rate of 14.73 per nine innings. Never known as a strikeout pitcher—career average of 6.94 per nine—Halladay is generating swings and missing with two strikes using his off-speed stuff.

Can this rate continue? It would be highly, highly unlikely. Even if it came down to around eight or nine Ks per nine, Doc will be in a better position to succeed. For all that will be made about his unsightly ERA, his current xFIP (4.04), which factors in K-rate and league average FB/HR percentage, isn’t horrible.

To reclaim success or “re-invent” himself, Halladay might need to strike hitters out at a higher rate. During his first start in Atlanta, 90 percent of his outs were via strikeout. The 10 batters who didn’t post a K went 6-for-7 with two home runs.

While the notion of a declining pitcher striking more batters out as age creeps up and velocity ticks down may seem strange, take a look at what Andy Pettitte did last year for the New York Yankees.

Despite the lowest average fastball velocity (87.8) of his long career, Pettitte struck out more batters per inning (8.24) than in any season since 2004. In fact, that number represented the highest strikeout rate of his entire career.

Halladay is in decline, but it doesn’t mean he can’t generate strikeouts.

What is your level of concern with Roy Halladay?

Comment below, follow me on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports or “Like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Most Critical Takeaways from Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Week

It hasn’t been the start to this season that anybody with the Philadelphia Phillies had been hoping for or expecting, including their front office, manager Charlie Manuel, his players and their fans.

The Phillies currently stand at 2-5, thanks to Kevin Frandsen’s base-clearing walk-off game-winner  in the middle game of their series against the Kansas City Royals.

While there have been a few areas of hope for this team, most facets of the squad have been out of sync and unproductive.

Let’s take a look at a few takeaways from the Phillies’ first seven games. No need to hit the panic button yet Phillies fans, but keep it close, as always. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Stock Up, Stock Down for Top 10 Prospects in Week 1

For the Phillies‘ top 10 prospects (per Baseball America), the first handful of games of their respective seasons have yielded divergent results.

This is admittedly the ultimate “small sample size” analysis—none of these players is even a full week into the season.

But the analysis has to start somewhere, and these games count as much as any others this season.

 

STOCK UP

Jesse Biddle: The best young arm in the organization is off quite well, with six strong innings (one earned run on two hits) in a win over the New Hampshire Rock Cats for Double-A Reading.

Roman Quinn: Jimmy Rollins’ likely heir apparent is hitting .333 at Class-A Lakewood with three stolen bases in four games.

Adam Morgan: In the rotation for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Morgan took a no-decision against the Syracuse Chiefs in his first start of the season, but the numbers (six innings, six hits, two earned runs, five strikeouts) were the sort of numbers that win games.

Darin Ruf: Good stuff from Ruf, who is shaking off what had to be a disappointing spring by hitting .294 with a couple of doubles in 17 at-bats at Lehigh Valley thus far.

Carlos Tocci: The 17-year-old phenom is going to be eased in some at Lakewood, but through two games he is hitting .286.

 

STOCK DOWN

Tommy Joseph: The possible replacement for Carlos Ruiz (Chooch’s contract is up after 2013), Joseph is scuffling at Lehigh Valley with a .167 batting average and no extra-base hits in three games.

Jonathan Pettibone: Another highly regarded starter in the system, Pettibone was cuffed around by the Syracuse Chiefs in his initial start—six earned runs on eight hits and three walks in 5.1 innings.

Ethan Martin: The young right-handed starter lasted only 4.1 innings, yielding four earned runs on three hits and four walks against the Syracuse Chiefs.

Cody Asche: With Michael Young tending third base on a one-year deal, the Phillies are hoping Asche can develop quickly enough to take over sooner than later. But Asche‘s .125 average, .188 slugging percentage and .222 on-base percentage through four games will not do it.

Maikel Franco: Speaking of third base, the 20-year-old Franco is off to a slow start at Class-A Advanced Clearwater, hitting .143 and slugging .214.

 

QUICK READ

Ruf remains the most likely call-up of these 10 players. He probably will not make it up before Memorial Day, particularly if Delmon Young gets back from his injury on the expected timetable.

And none of the starting pitchers is likely to see Philadelphia unless the Phillies fall out of the race early and start unloading the likes of Roy Halladay and (sad to say) Cliff Lee for whatever they can get.

Still, with the Phillies stumbling out of the gate (again), an occasional look to the future this season will probably be worthwhile.

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Phillies Need Strong Start from Kyle Kendrick with Halladay’s Struggles

The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t had the strong start to the season they had hoped, and starting pitching has been a big part of the reason. Cole Hamels gave up five earned runs in five innings in his debut, while Roy Halladay only made it through 3.1 innings and gave up five runs of his own. Cliff Lee, however, pitched great in his debut with only two hits in eight scoreless innings.

Now, it is time for Kyle Kendrick to take the mound in 2013, and he starts against the Kansas City Royals. In the Phillies’ home opener, the fourth pitcher on the rotation looks to build off his success from the end of last season.

But Kendrick has had an erratic career with the Phillies thus far.

He started 20 games in his first season in 2007 and posted a 10-4 record with a 3.87 ERA. The following year, Kendrick’s performance declined, as he finished 11-9 with a 5.49 ERA. In 2012, Kendrick resumed his place in the starting rotation after a few stints in the minors and the bullpen, where he added an effective changeup to his arsenal.

The 28-year-old did not get off to a fast start, but after the All-Star break, Kendrick had a record of 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA. The most promising aspect of that stretch was that Kendrick made it through six innings or more in eight out of his last 10 starts.

His consistency has never been more important than it will be this season. With the aging and ailing Halladay and the loss of Vance Worley, Kendrick has the opportunity to become the third ace on the pitching staff. Halladay may take time to return to 100 percent or may never actually get back there, so Philadelphia has to look to Kendrick to fill this void.

Spring training, however, did not signal strong hope for the right-handed pitcher, as he went 1-3 with a 6.88 ERA, but the regular season is a different animal.

Kendrick kicks off 2013 in Citizens Bank Park against 27-year-old Wade Davis. In 2010 and 2011, Davis had started 29 games in each season for the Tampa Bay Rays, yet he was a member of the bullpen in 2012. He now returns to a starting role for the Kansas City Royals.

Fortunately, Kendrick will not face off against a tough pitcher when more than 45,000 Phillies fans watch the team take the home field for the first time in 2013.

It is hard to predict how Kendrick will perform this season when he is assured to be pitching every five days, but the end of last season showed potential. Kendrick’s newly acquired changeup combined with his intimidating sinker has given him more confidence as he hopes to improve the Phillies’ starting rotation this season. 

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Why Domonic Brown and Michael Young Are Keys to Phillies’ Season

There are a lot of questions surrounding the aging Philadelphia Phillies as we kick off the 2013 season, such as if their starting pitching can return to dominance and if they’ll be able to put runs on the board, unlike last season. Adding to these questions are newcomers and young players with something to prove, and two Phillies in particular will be instrumental in Philadelphia’s success this year.

 

Michael Young

Although he’ll be playing third base for the Phillies, the longtime Texas Ranger is naturally a shortstop who played more and more games as the DH in the last few seasons. Young is getting up there in age, but has proven to be a consistent player throughout his career. Through 13 years, the 36-year-old has batted .301 but has recently shown a decline.

In 2012, Young saw his worst batting average (.277), slugging percentage (.370) and on-base percentage (.312) since 2002, his first full year as a starter. Young will be batting fifth in the lineup, behind Ryan Howard. The hard-hitting first baseman has the potential to change games with a swing of his bat and if he has a good year, then Young will be forced into many clutch situations.

The fear Howard can put in opposing teams forces them to intentionally walk him sometimes, leaving Young with multiple RBI opportunities. This also means that if Young is hitting well, then teams will be afraid to pitch around Howard.

His lack of experience at third combined with his age could really help or hurt the Phils this season, too. Young has played in over 155 games every season since 2002, but in his last two seasons in Texas, he only started 83 games in the field—only 25 games at third base, where he committed two errors.

 

Domonic Brown

At only 25 years old, Brown has been a promising prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies, but has yet to break out and impress. Two seasons ago, Brown hit .245 in 184 at-bats and in 2012 he batted .235 with 187 plate appearances. Well, this season Brown gets to start in left field, really getting the opportunity to become the star the organization hoped he would be.

On a team filled with aging All-Stars, Brown is a young athlete who has plenty of speed and power. He’ll be batting behind Young in the sixth position, but that could change if he shows major improvement.

If the Phillies hope to make it to the playoffs, they not only will need to avoid down years from top players like Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins, but Brown must also break out of his shell. The offense lacked firepower last year and he could be the one to bring it in 2013. 

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Potential in-Season Trades the Philadelphia Phillies Will Need to Make

The topic of prospective trades to be considered by the Philadelphia Phillies needs to be broken down into two sections, because I can see the season going one of two ways: It can go really, really bad or it can go just good enough to make a run at a playoff spot following some trade-deadline reinforcements.

I’m leaning towards this being a very bad season in Philly, one in which they are well out of the playoff race in July and looking to sell off a few free agents-to-be.

My other scenario has them somewhere within reach of a wild card spot in mid-July, but obviously not good enough to actually get there with the current 25-man roster in place. As opposed to 2012 when they traded off some key pieces (Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino) despite being down but not out of it, the Phillies should look to add this time around and take one last shot with this veteran group of players.

Here’s whom they’d look to trade if they’re sellers come July…

 

Carlos Ruiz, C

Once he returns from a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test, Ruiz will have a couple of months to prove to contending teams looking for catching help that his 2012 season wasn’t a fluke. 

At 33 years of age, Ruiz had career highs in almost every offensive category (.325 BA, .540 SLB, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 32 2B, 56 R) despite playing in only 114 games because of a season-ending foot injury.

Even if he’s closer to the pre-2012 version offensively, Ruiz still has value as a veteran catcher with terrific defensive skills, leadership and ability to come up with the clutch hit.

The Phillies will be hoping he can continue to rake as he did for most of last season, which would put them in position to ask for a very good prospect in return for two-plus months of Ruiz. He’s currently in the final year of his contract.

Several teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, could all have interest if they are in buying mode.

 

Chase Utley, 2B

He’ll fall just short of the 10-5 category (10 years in the majors, five years with the same team) that would allow him full no-trade rights. Therefore, the Phillies can shop him to at least a list of teams not included in his partial no-trade clause.

Of course, Utley can waive those rights in order to go to a contending team in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. The 34-year-old appears fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out until late June in 2012. He had a terrific spring (.875 OPS) and is off to a 4-for-9 start on the season with a homer, double and triple.

Chase Utley is a different person this spring. Last spring, he was hurt and reclusive. This spring, he is healthy, and vibrant

—Tim Kurkjian (@Kurkjian_ESPN) February 26, 2013

 

The Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals are just a handful of teams who could be looking for an upgrade at second base in July. A healthy Utley, who is making $15 million in 2013, could fetch the Phillies a top prospect if another team were to take on some of his remaining salary.

 

Michael Young, 3B

The 36-year-old might be down to his last chance to prove he’s still an everyday player in the big leagues. Teams will have interest whether he is or not. He does still have plenty of believers out there, including old teammates:

Mike Napoli on former Rangers teammate Michael Young, now with the Phillies: “He’ll have 200 hits this year.” @mlbonfox

—Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 17, 2013

 

He can still play both corner infield spots and would be a terrific option to have coming off the bench late in games during a pennant race.

The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates are a few of the National League teams that would have a spot for him as a primary pinch-hitter and part-time starter at first and third, while the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles are two American League teams that could give him regular at-bats against left-handed pitching.

 

Roy Halladay, SP

Major concerns surround Halladay right now after the 35-year-old veteran struggled in spring training and was knocked out in the fourth inning of his regular season debut on Wednesday.

According to many, he just doesn’t look like the same guy. Here’s an ESPN recap on his first start, which includes some quotes from an unimpressed scout.

So who is going to trade for Halladay if he continues to struggle? That’s easy. Any team looking for pitching help and hoping to get a huge discount on a future Hall of Famer. So most contending teams will at least be asking about him.

The question is how much of his remaining salary will the Phillies take on and what level of prospect will they seek in return? Halladay also has a $20 million option for 2014 that will vest with 225 innings.

For him to reach that mark, he’d have to be pitching very well, so it shouldn’t be a huge hurdle in trade talks since his value would be much higher.

And here’s whom the Phillies could potentially target if playoff hopes are still alive at midseason:

 

Chase Headley, San Diego Padres  

With a decent option in place at the hot corner in Michael Young, and solid depth behind him in Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen, it doesn’t make sense to look for an upgrade unless it’s an elite player.

Headley is an elite third baseman who might be available.

Acquiring Headley would be costly, but the Padres could be intrigued by a package that included Galvis, who would likely be their starting shortstop with Everth Cabrera possibly moving to second and Jedd Gyorko replacing Headley at third. The deal would be centered around one of their top pitching prospects (Jesse Biddle or Adam Morgan) and could also include one of their third base prospects (Maikel Franco or Cody Asche) and another high-ceiling prospect in the low minors.

For one-and-a-half years of Headley, that might be a bit much, but it could also mean another run at the playoffs if the 28-year-old switch-hitter can repeat his second-half performance of 2012 (.978 OPS).

 

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners

He won’t offer much defensively, but the right-handed slugger would fit nicely in the middle of a lineup that is currently left-handed heavy. The 31-year-old had nine homers in 20 spring games and has already hit three in his first 13 plate appearances of the regular season.

If the Mariners are out of the playoff race, they’ll look to deal Morse, who will be a free agent after the season. Don’t think the Phillies aren’t aware of his career success at their home ballpark (18-for-51, 5 HR, 13 RBI).

Acquiring Morse in late July would make their lineup down the stretch look something like this:

1) Ben Revere, CF  2) Jimmy Rollins, SS  3) Chase Utley, 2B  4) Ryan Howard, 1B  5) Michael Morse, LF  6) Domonic Brown, RF  7) Carlos Ruiz, C  8) Michael Young, 3B 

The Phillies might have to give up their best pitching prospect not named Biddle or Morgan. That would likely be Ethan Martin (3.48 ERA, 8.4 K/9 in 27 Double-A starts in 2012) or Jonathan Pettibone (3.10 ERA, 6.4 K/9 in 26 starts between Triple-A and Double-A in 2012).

Giving up one of those two prospects would be totally worth it, though, if the team is playing well and within striking distance of a playoff spot.

 

Lucas Harrell, Houston Astros

If the Phils are in buying mode, there’s a good chance Halladay has turned things around and the back-of-the-rotation duo of Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan are doing well.

Just in case they’re hanging in there despite that not happening, Harrell could be a good candidate to succeed in the Phillies rotation.

The 27-year-old was third in the majors with ground ball ratio of 57.2 percent, which is important since fly balls often have a good chance of departing Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

He was at it again in his 2013 debut, holding the Rangers to one run in six innings while inducing nine ground ball outs. It won’t take a top-10 prospect to land him, so he could be an intriguing option. A potential late-inning reliever like Jake Diekman or Justin De Fratus, along with a mid-level prospect, might be enough to land a solid workhorse like Harrell down the stretch. 

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MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee is 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA in 34 career starts in April, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Thursday night as he prepares to take on the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.

Sports bettors will find that the Phillies are plus-115 road underdogs in the pro baseball odds (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total sits at seven in the market.

Let’s take a closer look at this National League East matchup from a betting perspective, while offering up a pick along the way.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Starters Most in Danger of Losing Their Spot in 2013

Baseball is back. Phillies baseball is back.

Although the Philadelphia Phillies lost to the Atlanta Braves on Opening Day behind Cole Hamels, there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic about the season. Chase Utley looked reminiscent of his 2009 days. Ben Revere demonstrated his baserunning abilities and an ability to direct the ball where he pleases. Domonic Brown looked pretty good offensively. And Ryan Howard seemed to run down the baseline rather well, given his circumstances.

However, with the season comes changes from time to time. Already the Phillies have made a roster move, claiming outfielder Ezequiel Carrerra off waivers from the Cleveland Indians and designating Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte in a corresponding move, per CSNPhilly.com. This means that, barring any unexpected developments, Inciarte will be returned to the Diamondbacks without having seen any official major-league action.

While Inciarte was the sacrificial lamb for a move the Phillies felt upgraded their bench options, could any Phillies starters be on the hot seat? Baseball is a volatile sport, and if a player fails to live up to expectations, he’ll be sent out the door in the blink of an eye.

Regardless of the cause, here are five Phillies starters—whether in the rotation or playing every day—who could be in jeopardy of losing their spot in the 2013 season.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Addressing the Roy Halladay Question from Within

Roy Halladay has become a disaster.

Concerns in spring training over Halladay’s pitching prowess cascaded into the regular season Wednesday night when the former Philadelphia Phillies ace allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched.

Despite the horrific outing, optimists will beat their drums over Halladay’s nine strikeouts in less than four innings. Either way, the bitter overcomes the sweet in this entire ordeal. Doc is no longer the pitcher baseball fans have grown accustomed to; Halladay has changed and it will only be for the worse so long as he does not adapt.

According to Dictionary.com, realism is an “interest in or concern for the actual or real, as distinguished from the abstract, speculative, etc.” It is now time to be adherent to realism.

On Wednesday, Halladay delivered a spike in velocity from his innings pitched in Clearwater, Florida. However, the vast majority of the pitches thrown were sinkers or cutters; therefore, the lack of fastballs may have prolonged a looming decline in velocity later in the game. At any rate, this decline appears perpetual.

A subjective debate could ensue for ages as to whether or not Halladay’s ills are mental or physical. We simply do not know. What we do know is that something has changed. Addressing the issue of Halladay’s evolution (or devolution), requires the forethought of turning inward and analyzing whether or not the answer can be found within the organization.

So long as Halladay’s performance is detrimental to the club, the Phillies must act. If not, the boo birds will be singing in Citizen’s Bank Park.

 

 

 

In answering the Halladay question from within the Phillies organization, three pitchers come to mind. Lefty Jesse Biddle and right-handed throwers Tyler Cloyd and Jonathan Pettibone are the most talented pitchers down on the farm.

With a four-pitch repertoire, Biddle has the most upside of the trio; however, 2013 will be the first season he’ll pitch beyond Single-A. An All-Star in the Florida State League, Biddle will likely emerge as a formidable starter, but he is at the very least one year away from a rotation spot with the Phillies.

Cloyd, an 18th-round pick in the 2008 MLB Draft, surprised many last year as he ascended from the depths of the farm system to a prominent late-season role in the majors. While Cloyd did make one appearance in 2011, his rapid climb in 2012 astonished onlookers.

Without many tricks up his sleeve, Cloyd relies on precise control to be effective. Having little margin of error, it’s unlikely he could be a fixture at the back end of a rotation for many years at the major league level. If anything, Cloyd represents a limited band-aid to the woes the Phillies face from the uncertainty regarding Halladay. 

The present solution appears to be Pettibone. Working downhill due to his tall frame, Pettibone is stockpiling a three-pitch variety while continuing to work on his cutter. With an effortless delivery, he appears to have the makeup to endure through an entire season of pitching from day one.

 

 

Pettibone lacks the ceiling of Biddle, but he currently provides the most stability. Despite missing the ability to maintain a high strikeout rate, he will be a manageable innings eater in the middle of the rotation. 

Naysayers will pump their chest and declare this to be an overreaction to Halladay’s woes. Simply put, they are wrong. Jumping off of the Halladay bandwagon last season would have been an overreaction.

Realistically pointing out Halladay’s deficiencies as they are is a confirmation of the ills which are troubling him. No longer a spring chicken, the soon-to-be 36-year-old has become more of a liability than a contributor to a club that has the potential to compete in the postseason. 

If nothing else, Halladay’s inability to hack it makes the Phillies worse, not better. It is time to answer the Halladay question. At this point in time, that answer can only come from within.

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It’s Not Too Early for Philadelphia Phillies to Fear the Worst with Roy Halladay

Wednesday was Roy Halladay‘s chance to put all the concerns to rest. All he had to do was pitch well against the Atlanta Braves, and the Philadelphia Phillies could have breathed a collective sigh of relief.

That didn’t happen.

Instead of giving the Phillies and their fans reasons to relax, Halladay gave them reasons to gather around the giant panic button (if there is one) in the heart of Philadelphia.

The veteran right-hander’s 2013 debut saw him last only three-and-a-third innings and surrender five earned runs on six hits and three walks. Two of the hits he gave up left the ballpark: one off the bat of Justin Upton, and the other off the bat of Evan Gattis (the first of his career).

The bright side is that nine of the 10 outs Halladay recorded came by way of the strikeout. The not-so-bright side, obviously, is the fact that he only got 10 outs. 

Ordinarily, bad first starts like this one can be forgiven. They can certainly be forgotten if the pitcher who put up the stinker finds his way the rest of the season.

But this one? Those hopes of yours better not get too high.

It was clear early on that Halladay’s stuff was not going to be good. He was getting his hard stuff over the plate in the 87-90 miles-per-hour range, which is where he resided for most of 2012. Per FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity tumbled from 92.0 miles per hour in 2011 to 90.6 miles per hour, and his average cutter velocity dipped under the 90-MPH threshold as well.

An offseason’s worth of rest didn’t do Halladay’s velocity any good in spring training. David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News noted in early March that Halladay was sitting in the 86-88 range in an outing against the Washington Nationals.

It was always a possibility that Halladay’s velocity would return to him once the season began, but that didn’t happen.

What’s more, you have to wonder if Halladay’s velocity loss has gone to his head. As Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer can vouch, Halladay barely used his hard stuff against the Braves on Wednesday:

This is another thing which hearkens back to what we saw from Halladay in 2012. With his velocity slipping, he resorted more to his curveball and his split-change. It was more of the same against the Braves.

Halladay’s off-speed stuff did look pretty good. It had more bite than his hard stuff, and he wouldn’t have been able to compile those nine strikeouts without it. And for what it’s worth, ESPN’s Jayson Stark noted on Twitter that Halladay’s the first pitcher to strike out nine batters in less than 3.2 innings in 98 years, so he did make a bit of history.

That’s an encouraging sign, as it serves as proof that Halladay’s arsenal isn’t completely depleted. 

But it’s only encouraging to a degree.

Pitchers need hard stuff to keep the strikes coming. Halladay moved away from his hard stuff on Wednesday and, sure enough, he didn’t throw that many strikes. Only 55 of his 95 pitches went for strikes, about 58 percent.

This from a guy who has a strike percentage of 68 over the last four seasons. Even while he was struggling through so much of 2012, Halladay still managed to throw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes. That’s up where the best strike-throwers in the business generally reside.

The writing on the wall says that Halladay isn’t going to be around the plate all that much without his hard stuff. That means he’s going to have to reestablish his confidence in it, and he may not be able to do that until his velocity returns to him.

Halladay certainly can’t just keep doing what he did against the Braves start after start. He’s not going to be able to just strike everyone out. He can try, mind you, but that sort of approach isn’t good for the pitch count, and hitters are going to get wise sooner or later (smart money’s on sooner).

The situation is bleak, but the obligatory question must be asked: Is there hope for Halladay?

As dire as things look right now, there’s always hope. Halladay’s stuff doesn’t look so good, but we’re talking about a guy who has one of the best minds for pitching of anybody in recent memory. If Greg Maddux could get by for so many years with mediocre velocity, then Halladay may be able to as well.

In addition, there is the reality that Halladay didn’t exactly enjoy a normal spring. He battled a stomach virus that kept him from getting some work in, and it could be that he’s still building himself up after having to deal with that.

But I wouldn’t go out and bet the farm on Halladay bouncing back and thrusting himself into the National League Cy Young Award race this season. Based on what we saw last year, in spring training and in his 2013 debut, we’re clearly looking at a pitcher who is not the guy he used to be. 

And that, obviously, is a disconcerting thought for the Phillies. Halladay’s dominance had a lot to do with their success in 2010 and 2011, and we saw last year that the team can only be so good without a dominant Halladay.

That was particularly true toward the end of the year, when the Phillies were close to full strength and making a push for the postseason. Halladay didn’t do his part, with a 5.88 ERA in his last nine starts.

The Phillies needed the old ace version of Halladay then, and they’re certainly going to need him this year, given the competition they’re facing in the NL East. The Nationals are legit, and the Braves look as good as advertised so far.

If Halladay doesn’t get himself squared away, the Phillies will be staring also-ran status in the face for a second year in a row.

Worse, their already-closing championship window is finally going to shut.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

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