Philadelphia Phillies: Will Chase Utley and Company Tease Us with Mediocrity?

The Philadelphia Phillies have reached a fork in the road and the organization is stringing its fanbase along while contemplating which direction to go.

In 2013, it’s highly improbable to forecast a National League East Division title for the Phillies. However, competing for an NL wild-card berth is not out of the question either. These things we know.

What we don’t know is how the Phillies will respond to their current conundrum.

Two years removed from a lineup and pitching staff that dominated opponents at will, the Phillies are now clustered with aging question marks, expiring contracts and a farm system that is null and void.

For instance, second baseman Chase Utley and third baseman Michael Young will be free agents following the season. Former ace Roy Halladay will join the latter two as long as he doesn’t accrue 225 innings pitched (or a sum of 415 innings pitched between 2012-2013). Halladay’s one-year option could also be renewed if he does not finish the 2013 season on the disabled list.

Additionally, outfielder Delmon Young and utilityman Laynce Nix will also hit the open market for 2014.

Regarding Utley, Young and Halladay, the sum of their 2013 base salaries is $41 million. For comparison’s sake, the aforementioned trio will be paid nearly twice as much as the entire Houston Astros 2013 roster ($24.34 million). However, a possibility looms that Utley and Halladay will return for 2014. Young, on the other hand, will be one-and-done in Philadelphia.

The approach the Phillies should consider regarding the present and the future depends upon one’s baseball ideology. 

Those who favor a sustainable franchise that builds from within via scouting and development will be more than happy to see the Phillies part ways with Utley and Halladay. These same folks are clamoring in anticipation of first baseman Ryan Howard’s $125 million contract expiration following the 2017 season.

Those who toe this line follow the principle of development.

On the other hand, there are those who bustle about free agency and the trading block looking for the next big piece to add. For example, this type of crowd might suggest the Boston Red Sox did not err in signing outfielder Carl Crawford to a seven-year contract worth $142 million. Instead of a mistake, these folks feel that Crawford’s deal was well worth the investment at the time.

Those who argue in favor of this ideology believe in market superiority. After all, the macroeconomics of baseball tell us that teams in major markets are more likely to spend larger sums of money than their smaller-market counterparts. Hence, market superiority.

Only the ebb and flow of the Major League Baseball season can determine which direction the Phillies take in the short term. By trading Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton, 2012 was the first time the Phillies took the developmental approach in more than five seasons. 

Recent history in Philadelphia suggests that the long-term approach is to invest heavily in high-priced talent, as long as the roster makeup is considered competitive.

This is where the conundrum rears its ugly head.

At the core of the Phillies roster is nothing but 30-something-year-old’s (minus Cole Hamels). Outfielders Ben Revere and Domonic Brown are 24 and 25 years old, respectively. Although, neither Revere nor Brown has established himself in the same fashion as Jimmy Rollins, Utley or Howard.

If anything, Revere and Brown are low on the food chain of established MLB outfielders.

In the cards for the Phillies exists the likelihood of a winning season in 2013. Yet, the winning season is also unlikely to translate into a postseason appearance. Even if it did, only someone with an unrealistic outlook would suggest the Phillies have an opportunity to win the World Series. There are simply too many unanswered questions.

One question is of primary importance, though.

Cliff Lee‘s $120 million contract does not expire until 2017. If the Phillies are 10 games or more behind second place in the NL East by the trade deadline, do they deal Lee? What if they have to digest a major share of Lee’s remaining contract?

Only the performance of the Phillies over the course of the next four months can answer that question.

Another question that must be asked revolves around Utley.

At 34 years old, the second baseman is playing at full health in the month of April for the first time since 2010. With an expiring contract, is Utley expendable at the non-waiver trade deadline if the Phillies are out of contention? On the other hand, if the Phillies can retain Utley for a contract in the $6-8 million-per-year range, should they bring him back in 2014?

With an exhausted farm system and a plethora of over-the-hill MLB talent, the conundrum the Phillies face in the near term has the potential to be devastating. The sky is not falling, but even a fan wearing rose-colored lenses can see the future isn’t so bright either. 

A painstaking approach to managing the club while weighing the net difference from a cost-benefit analysis will draw criticism from every angle. Unfortunately, doubts persist that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is capable of steering the Phillies organization back into World Series contention. 

What can be expected in the near term?

A Phillies lineup that will tease the fanbase with just enough wins to remain relevant. Simultaneously, the dark cloud of the future will continue to linger over this franchise. With that said, mediocrity will endure and bitterness will tower as long as the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves continue to win more games than the team from Citizens Bank Park.

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Impressions from Philadelphia Phillies’ Opening Night

The Philadelphia Phillies fell to the Atlanta Braves 7-5 in their first game of the 2013 season, but it wasn’t all bad news.

Cole Hamels and Chad Durbin struggled on the mound, Chase Utley brought life to the offense and newcomers made their debuts. It is a much different Phillies team than a few years ago, when it had the best rotation in all of baseball and was considered a title contender. Now, the Phillies try to put a .500 season behind them as they set out to retake the NL East throne from the Washington Nationals.

So, what did we learn about the Phillies on Opening Night?

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Hitter-by-Hitter Breakdown of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Lineup

Phillies fans have to be rejoicing at the sight of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the same lineup to begin the season.

While they don’t pack as much punch as they used to, they will lead a lineup that is not exactly intimidating, but has the potential to be efficient and successful.

With the back end of their pitching rotation shaky at best, it is up to the Phillies’ lineup to keep them in games and turn uncertainty into consistent run production up and down the lineup.

However, for this current lineup, the ceiling is as high as the floor is low. Where they end up in that middle ground comes down to one thing: execution.

I’ll breakdown the Phillies’ lineup that was used in their 7-5 Opening Day loss to the Atlanta Braves and should remain close to the same for the beginning part of the season barring injury (Knock on wood, Phillies fans).   

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One Prediction for Every Philadelphia Phillies Player on the Opening Day Roster

Predictions are fun, but that is all they are. If you have the gift of seeing the future, use it for good after you are satisfied that you have made enough money in the stock market.

So these are predictions on Phillies players for 2013. Some will be lighthearted, some will be serious, but all of them should be taken as exercises in fun and nothing more.

As readers here often point out, my knowledge of Phillies baseball is pretty limited, anyway.

Mike Adams: 30 holds. A huge improvement over Philly’s eighth innings in 2012.

Phillippe Aumont: Continued problems with strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Antonio Bastardo: To be trusted with and to lose the eighth-inning situational lefty job again.

Domonic Brown: A 20-20-20 season: 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 20 errors.

Chad Durbin: Five different occasions this season where Chris Wheeler, Larry Andersen or Tom McCarthy refers to him as “Chad Qualls.”

Kevin Frandsen: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Michael Young for defensive purposes.

Freddy Galvis: A borderline shocking number of late-inning appearances in place of Chase Utley for defensive purposes.

Roy Halladay: Only 140 innings and an earned run average over five. But I hope I’m wrong.

Cole Hamels: A 20-win season that leads the Phillies to a one-game playoff to get into the one-game National League Wild Card playoff.

Jeremy Horst: By September, Horst and not Bastardo will be sharing eighth-inning duties with Adams.

Ryan Howard: A rich man’s Adam Dunn: 40 home runs, 110 runs batted in, .225 average.

Ender Inciarte: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Delmon Young is healthy enough to play.

Kyle Kendrick: A career high in wins (he only needs 12 to get there.)

Erik Kratz: By late April, the cries for Carlos Ruiz will be deafening.

John Lannan: A surprisingly effective season with double-digit wins and single-digit losses.

Cliff Lee: A 23-win season in which Hamels and Lee never lose back-to-back starts.

John Mayberry, Jr.: Hitting .197, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Laynce Nix: Hitting .198, traded at midseason for a player to be named later.

Jonathan Papelbon: 40-plus saves and an earned run average under three.

Humberto Quintero: A ticket to Lehigh Valley as soon as Carlos Ruiz’s suspension is over.

Ben Revere: The Phillies’ offensive most valuable player with 175 hits, 110 runs and 50 steals.

Jimmy Rollins: Quiet, stable leadership with double digits in doubles, home runs and steals.

Chase Utley: A somehow-now-he’s-healthy Utley (in a contract year) hits 20 home runs and drives in 75 with 15 steals.

Raul Valdes: Twenty appearances in which he faces only one left-handed batter; 18 of those batters will be retired.

Michael Young: By September, Young will be hitting better than .300, but he will have twice as many errors as home runs.

Somehow, this is all going to add up to 87 wins.

You would take that, right?

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MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has hit seven career home runs against Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tim Hudson, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Monday night, as the two teams face off at Turner Field at 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Sports bettors will find that the Phillies are -102 road underdogs in the pro baseball odds (courtesy of SBR odds), while the total sits at 7.0 in the betting market.

Let’s take a closer look at this National League East matchup from a betting perspective while offering up a prediction on the total along the way.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Post-Spring Training Report Card for Top 8 Prospects

While spring training is a way for teams and roster players to prepare for the upcoming season, it also gives prospects a chance to get experience at the big league camp and, in some instances, audition for a job with the major league club.

For the Philadelphia Phillies, they invited a handful of their top prospects to camp, some of which were there with a shot to earn jobs, while others were just there so that the team could take a look at its best and upcoming talent.

Of those invited, eight in particular stood out and emerged as top prospects. They include pitching stars Adam Morgan, Jonathan Pettibone and Ethan Martin, future infield types in Cesar Hernandez and Cody Asche and the organization’s two best catching hopefuls in Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle.

Also in camp was Darin Ruf, who solidified himself as a top prospect with a record-breaking season at Double-A Reading. He was invited to camp with a legitimate shot to become the Phillies’ starting left fielder but fell short, as he finds himself still learning the position he spent just weeks having the chance to prepare for.

While Ruf is still a work in progress, his is a special case. Meanwhile, the other seven guys in camp came forward—some in leaps and bounds—to showcase their ability to the organization’s top executives.

So considering spring performance and minor league track records, here are the post-spring training report cards for each of the Phillies’ top eight prospects.

 

The grades given to each player are based on five factors. Both hitters and pitchers are judged on the basis of their ETA to the major leagues, skill in most need of work and developmental progress in terms of minor league progression and their spring training sample.

For hitters, they are also graded on their power rate and contact/strikeout rate. For pitchers, they are graded on swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to get hitters out.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies Set Opening Day Roster

After weeks of speculation and predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies have officially set their Opening Day roster and determined which players will be charged with making the 2012 season a distant memory and 2013 a return to the postseason.

According to Ryan Lawrence on Philly.com, the Phillies have chosen Phillippe Aumont, Jeremy Horst, Raul Valdes, Ender Inciarte and Humberto Quintero to fill out the 25-man roster.

The Phillies’ starting staff has been set since before spring training began, with Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan opening the season in the rotation.  Hamels has been chosen as the team’s Opening Day starter and will take the mound Monday night against the Atlanta Braves.

Hamels finished the spring with 15 strikeouts in 19 innings and a 0.95 ERA. 

Halladay remains as the only question mark in the rotation to start the season health-wise, but he is currently scheduled to start the second game of the season for the Phils.  Lee, meanwhile, gave up one hit and struck out five in four innings during his last start leading up to the regular season.

The Phillies bullpen remained as the only unsettled area during the final week of spring training, but Aumont has beaten out Michael Stutes to start the season.  Neither pitcher was overwhelmingly successful in his most recent outing, but Aumont’s seven strikeouts to four walks earned him the nod over Stutes’ eight strikeouts to nine walks.

Both Horst and Valdes improved as camp continued and give the Phillies a balanced Opening Day bullpen with three left-handers and four right-handers.

Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, Chad Durbin and Antonio Bastardo have also made the Opening Day bullpen, although all four were considered locks prior to spring training.

The Phillies used 19 different pitchers in a relief role last season, meaning that pitchers such as Stutes, Justin De Fratus and Jake Diekman will all likely see time in the major leagues.

The infield was locked into place following the release of Yuniesky Betancourt, but Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis have now officially made the 25-man roster as reserve infielders.

Galvis, who has recently spent time in the outfield, has now played five positions this spring.  His defense has remained above average, while his offense has also improved.  However, Galvis has also struck out 22 times while drawing just two walks, giving him an OBP of .284.

Both Galvis and Frandsen will backup starters Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Michael Young—all of whom had starting positions guaranteed prior to spring training, barring injury. 

Howard and Utley, both of whom were recovering from injury, are batting .337 and .279 this spring, respectively.

Erik Kratz will open the season as the Phillies’ starter at catcher and will be backed up by Quintero, who beat out a late charge by Steven Lerud to earn a roster spot.  However, Quintero’s spot on the 25-man roster will likely only last until Carlos Ruiz’s return in late-April.

The Phillies entered spring training with one starting outfielder and several players battling for the corner spots.  As spring training concludes, the team now finds itself with two solidified starters in center fielder Ben Revere and corner outfielder Domonic Brown.

Brown, arguably the Phillies’ best player this spring, is batting .368 with seven home runs and 24 runs scored.  He will play one corner outfield spot, with John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix platooning in the other.

Inciarte, the Phillies’ Rule 5 selection, has made the Opening Day roster unless the Phillies are able to make a waiver claim or find another outfielder that has been released by a team.  Inciarte’s roster spot will also be in jeopardy once Delmon Young returns from injury.  For now, however, he provides a late inning defensive option for the Phils.

The Phillies’ remaining decision prior to Opening Day involves the starting lineup, with manager Charlie Manuel having options regarding where to bat Revere, Rollins, Young and Brown.

This 2013 Opening Day roster differs significantly from the 2012 Opening Day roster, but the Phillies have nevertheless determined which players will be asked to get the ball rolling towards starting a new postseason streak in 2013.

 

*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

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Predicting Boom or Bust for All 25 Phillies Players Entering Opening Day

It has been a long spring for the Philadelphia Phillies thanks to the World Baseball Classic, and this club certainly has the look of a team that is ready for Opening Day. Then again, aren’t we all at this point? 

This season will be about trying to scratch and claw their way back to the top, with their ever elusive “window of opportunity” certainly looming as a threat. With players like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz entering the season on expiring contracts, this could realistically be do or die. 

Then again, this is a town that expects nothing short of the World Series from their Phillies. At that point, you have to wonder if this is a team capable of toppling young, talented clubs in their own division like the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves—let alone the rest of the league. 

The following slideshow will attempt to determine that. We’ll look at each member of the Phillies’ projected Opening Day roster and determine whether they will “boom” or “bust.” 

Players who receive the “boom” designation are guys set to have good seasons. Players labeled as “bust” will disappoint. While the reasoning and variables will change for each slide, the general idea remains the same. 

Will the Phillies boom or bust in 2013? 

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Assembling Philadelphia Phillies’ Best Starting Lineup After Spring Training

Now that spring training has concluded, almost everything is locked in for the Philadelphia Phillies for Opening Day on Monday, April 1. Almost everything.

While three of Phillippe Aumont, Jeremy Horst, Mike Stutes and Raul Valdes are bound to claim the final bullpen spots and one of Laynce Nix or Rule 5 Draft Pick Ender Inciarte will win the fifth outfielder’s job, the Phillies currently lack a cemented Opening Day lineup.

Aside from Cole Hamels, who has been anointed the Opening Day starter against the Atlanta Braves (via CSNPhilly.com), questions still remain about both the Phillies’ batting order and, at a position or two, who will start.

My views and opinions will most definitely differ from those of the man who will be writing in the lineup card next Monday, manager Charlie Manuel. 

Given the Phillies’ projected lineup for the season opener according to MLB.com, I do have a few qualms about placements, which will be reflected in my lineup in this slideshow.

So, without further ado, here is the Phillies’ best lineup after spring training, or—depending on how you look at it—my lineup card if I were managing the Phillies.

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Philly Phanatic Makes Out with Smokin’ Reporter on Live Television

Waving to fans, sweating buckets and posing generally make up the list of the day’s activities for most mascots. 

But every once in a while, they get to do something special, such as puckering up with a smoking traffic reporter on television like the Philly Phanatic did Tuesday. 

Video has surfaced of Fox’s Philadelphia news personality Kacie McDonnell sharing more or less a voluntary smooch with the Phillies mascot during a live traffic broadcast. The large furry creature had been dyed red in honor of Philadelphia’s “Paint the Town” event, and he ran into the shot jacked up and ready to go as usual.

Judging by the way McDonnell’s voice hops up a few octaves, either the Phanatic was running at her from off-camera or she is terrified of large-nosed mascots. Nevertheless, McDonnell starts talking home runs, winning seasons and World Series rings.

Obviously, hearing these words from this young lady is too much for the Phanatic, who grabs her and goes in for the two-second Frencher (not the first time it’s kissed someone in front of thousands). 

McDonnell shouts, people in the studio go “Whoop!” and the Philly Phanatic hits the floor like a sack of potatoes. As one would expect, the joke was taken in the awesome good humor it deserves.

“I guess I have a new boyfriend,” McDonnell said.

You mean to replace your old ex, Christian Ponder? Well, he’s not much for looks with that schnoz and the ring of belly fat, but hey—at least he’s famous. 

(h/t SportsGrid)

Let me be the Phanatic. They won’t even have to pay me in gum: Dr__Carson

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