Philadelphia Phillies: 4 Toughest Decisions Remaining for the Team

With April 1st and the start of the 2013 baseball season just a few short days away, the Philadelphia Phillies have checked off quite a few items on their offseason to-do list and are closer to figuring out what their roster will look like for the regular season.

The team took care of a few housekeeping items by naming Cole Hamels the Opening Day starter, and by demoting Darin Ruf, it got a few steps closer to figuring out the outfield situation.

But for all of the things the Phillies did this offseason, there still remains open positions left to be filled and tough, unanswered questions that include:

– Which guys in camp will make the bullpen?
– Who will bat leadoff this season?

And, what are they to do with Ender Inciarte?

So with the start of the season just a few days away, here are the four toughest questions that are still facing the Phillies. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Could Cliff Lee Live to Regret His Long-Term Phils Deal?

If it became a movie, Cliff Lee‘s Philadelphia story would be a romantic comedy with scenes of brilliant light and unbearable darkness.

The first time the Phillies dealt for Lee, in 2009, the deal was viewed as “adding another top starter to join Cole Hamels,” per ESPN.com.

No one could have known, though, that it would be Lee and not Hamels who would be the unhittable one in the 2009 playoffs.

In five postseason starts, Lee went 4-0 in 40.1 innings pitched. He gave up seven earned runs in that entire postseason.

So, naturally, the Phillies did what any sensible club would do with a pitcher who had done what Lee just did.

They traded him to Seattle.

History has proven this trade to be as dumb as it seemed at the time. None of the pieces the Phillies received in return (right-hander Phillippe Aumont, outfielder Tyson Gillies and right-hander Juan Ramirez) have the look of big-time major league contributors.

In fact, only Aumont seems to have a future in the big leagues at all.

The Phillies righted the wrong by signing Lee to a long-term contract in December 2010.

When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to that five-year, $120 million deal, the prevailing narrative was that the fans never wanted Lee to leave Philadelphia in the first place. 

At Lee’s December 2010 press conference announcing his return to Philadelphia, Lee said things that Phillies fans always wanted to hear. 

“I don’t know what the fans do to create that much more volume and excitement in the stadium, but it’s definitely something extra here,” Lee said. “They’re passionate fans. They understand what’s going on. They don’t need a teleprompter to tell them to get up and cheer.”

It was a feel-good story and a feel-good time for both Lee and the Phillies.

Since that day, though, the good times have been fewer and further between.

Lee’s fingerprints were all over the Phillies’ loss in the 2011 National League Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Staked to a four-run lead in Game 2 with his team already leading the best-of-five series 1-0, Lee gave it all back and the Phillies’ stranglehold on the series was gone.

It never returned.

And then last season, Lee posted his first losing record (6-9) since going 5-8 in 20 starts for the 2007 Cleveland Indians.

All of the peripheral numbers were fine. Lee’s earned run average of 3.16 was easily among the top 10 in the National League. He struck out 207 hitters in 211 innings. His WHIP was 1.11.

Which leads, ultimately, to the moral of the story.

One way or another, Lee accepted a discounted rate to sign his one-time-only mega-free-agent deal with the Phillies.

Only two years of the five guaranteed are gone, and in that short time, the Phillies have gone from perennial favorite in the National League East to the division’s consensus third-place team behind the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.

And if the 2013 Phillies cannot improve on last season’s 81-81 and get back to the postseason, significant personnel changes are very likely.

In fact, even if the Phillies do find their way back into the October championship tournament, the likes of Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young (all on expiring contracts) are probably going to leave.

Which brings us to the big question.

If Cliff Lee knew in December 2010 what he knows now, would he have come back to Philadelphia?

And if he had the chance to leave now, would he?

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Philadelphia Phillies Playing It Safe by Sending Darin Ruf to Triple-A

Talk about a roller coaster ride of emotions.

Shortly after hitting a walk-off home run against the Atlanta Braves, the Philadelphia Phillies made a somewhat-bold decision by sending left fielder/first baseman Darin Ruf to Triple-A, according to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury. 

Ruf, 26, took the Phillies’ organization (and Minor League Baseball as a whole, for that matter) by storm in 2012 when he posted a slash line of .317/.408/.620 with 38 home runs for Double-A Reading. He didn’t miss a beat when the Phillies called him up in September, hitting .333/.351/.727 with three home runs over 12 games. 

Moving into the offseason, Ruf was expected to play a big role for the Phillies going forward. He spent the end of the season getting his feet wet in left field before playing the outfield in the Venezuelan winter league. 

It was somewhat of a desperate decision by the Phillies, who were certainly not looking to move Ruf into the outfield for his glove. The idea was to get his bat in the lineup and let the cards fall where they may defensively. 

If spring training has been any indication, that isn’t going to be as simple as it sounds. 

Ruf has been nothing short of miserable in the outfield throughout camp. He has gotten bad reads on balls off of the bat, taken bad routes and completely misjudged certain hits. There was a gradual improvement as the spring progressed, but the one thing that the Phillies actually wanted never showed up: The bat. 

The Phillies would only tolerate his poor defense if Ruf could produce offensively—something he had not done consistently throughout the spring, going 14-for-57 with six doubles and a pair of home runs. 

By sending him to Triple-A, the Phillies are playing it safe with Ruf. He’ll open the season in Lehigh Valley, where he’ll have an opportunity not only to continue learning how to play left field on a regular basis, but to settle in against minor league pitching. 

With Delmon Young already playing in minor league games, the Phillies clearly feel as though outfielders like John Mayberry Jr. and Laynce Nix can hold down the fort until he is ready. Domonic Brown has all but won a job. Something had to give. 

Ruf will head to Lehigh Valley as the Phillies’ “plan B.” He’ll be available in the event of an injury or if Young simply can’t handle the strain of playing the outfield on a regular basis. 

Is this the right decision? 

Well, that’s a matter of opinion. Ruf certainly didn’t do much to help his cause this spring and the only opinion that really matters at this point is that of the Phillies, and they have clearly spoken. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Should Phils Add Yuniesky Betancourt to 25-Man Roster?

As spring training winds down and the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to head north for two final tune-up games at Citizens Bank Park in less than a week, most of the undecided roster spots involve relief pitchers.

However, there’s still at least one roster spot up for grabs that does not involve a reliever.

The Phillies’ starting infield is healthy and, for the first time since 2010, set to be in the Opening Day lineup.  However, a decision must still be made regarding which players will be backing up these starters off the bench this season.

Kevin Frandsen, after batting .338 with 14 home runs and 66 hits in 55 games last season, has all but officially been given a reserve infielder spot this season.  Considering that he is out of minor league options and has turned in a solid spring training, collecting 14 hits in 18 games, Frandsen should not only make the Opening Day roster but also have significant contributions throughout the season.

But who will join him as a reserve infielder?

Unless the Phillies decide to carry four outfielders until Delmon Young’s return, the team essentially has Freddy Galvis and Yuniesky Betancourt fighting for a spot on the Opening Day roster. 

Galvis may have been the early favorite for winning a bench job, after proving that he is capable of playing above-average defense during the 2012 season.  The biggest question mark surrounding Galvis was whether his offense had improved.  A .288 average and 17 hits in 21 games this spring suggests that he can improve on his.226 average in 58 major league games last season. 

However, Galvis’ .288 average includes 17 strikeouts to just two walks, and a .311 OBP.

Meanwhile, Betancourt has batted .439 in 18 fewer at-bats than Galvis prior to today’s game, to go with 18 hits and just one strikeout.  Betancourt has a .444 OBP.

Betancourt appeared in 57 games last season to Galvis’ 58, and batted .228, also similar to Galvis.  However, Betancourt also hit seven home runs and 36 RBI.

Both players have had solid spring trainings, and both have remained in the running for a final roster spot heading into the final days of camp.  For Galvis, this means that his offense has improved while, for Betancourt, this means that he has played his way into contention after being a last minute offseason signing.

There is one big difference between the two players, however.

Betancourt’s contract allows him to ask for his release if he is not added to the 25-man roster by Sunday.

And, according to an article by Matt Gelb on Philly.com, Betancourt will do just that if the Phillies do not add him to the roster.

The Phillies are in a good position heading into Opening Day, as either Galvis or Betancourt in addition to Frandsen will give the team a solid bench to start the season. 

However, what about as the season progresses?

With teams such as the St. Louis Cardinals and possibly Los Angeles Dodgers looking for infield help following spring training injuries, it’s understandable why Betancourt would ask for his release if the Phillies attempt to send him to the minor leagues.  Galvis, meanwhile, can be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers and start everyday rather than serving a limited role off the bench.

But what about the options after these infielders?  The Phillies will have Michael Martinez in their minor league system, as well as Pete Orr and Andres Blanco, who recently re-signed with the team according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. 

Not exactly a grouping that inspires a lot of confidence.

If Frandsen or Galvis were to get injured, the Phillies would be forced to call-up one of these players to add to their bench.  With Galvis less than a year removed from suffering a back injury, and a starting infield that has had its share of injuries, having as much depth as possible makes more sense.

The Phillies could still release Betancourt and take their chances with the rest of the roster remaining healthy, or even take a look at free agents.  But having Galvis available in Triple-A would not be the worst scenario to start the season.

It’s uncertain whether a team would be willing to make a minor trade offer for Betancourt prior to Sunday when they could make a free agent offer in a few days instead. 

The Phillies could also hold onto him until a team is willing to make a trade offer, and then call up Galvis to join the major league roster.  Obtaining anything for Betancourt, even a low-level prospect, would be a solid deal considering that he was originally a last minute addition to camp.

The previously mentioned article by Gelb notes that Betancourt’s contract could earn him as much as $1.4 million through incentives.  That’s a bigger price than the Phillies likely would want to pay a reserve infielder, especially with Frandsen making $850,000.  Additionally, a player would have to be optioned off the 40-man roster, possibly Mauricio Robles, in order to make room for Betancourt.

The Phillies were in a similar situation last season with Juan Pierre, and ended up making a decision that gave the team a .300 hitter for the season.

It’s not a bad position to be in, having three players capable of making the major league roster.

However, with the Phillies’ starting infielders having trouble remaining on the field in recent seasons, lessening the team’s depth and removing a bench option from the equation could be a difficult decision to make.

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Ranking Each Phillies Prospect’s Performance in Spring Training

With a lot of aging veterans locked into positions for the upcoming season, the odds of any prospect in camp with the Philadelphia Phillies this spring actually making the Opening Day roster were incredibly small from the get-go, but they certainly had the opportunity to leave an impression, be it good or bad. 

The Phillies wanted to have a firsthand look at some of their prospects this spring. This is a club that could have a lot of turnover on their roster in the next couple of seasons, so perhaps it is more accurate to say that they needed to take a good look at some of the players in their organization. 

In that light, the Phillies brought a few noticeable names to camp this spring. They brought in a few positional prospects that could be playing everyday at the major league level as soon as next season. They brought in candidates for the starting rotation and the bullpen. 

So how did they do? 

Even without a legitimate shot to crack the roster, these prospects had the opportunity to make the right impression moving forward. The following slideshow will rank their performances this spring in the opportunities that they were given. 

For the sake of this list, all players with rookie eligibility will be included. This means that any player with less than 45 service days on the active roster is eligible. A player must not have more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched. 

So, without further ado, the rankings. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. 

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Mapping out a Successful Rebuilding Plan for the Philadelphia Phillies

Considering the overwhelming success of the Philadelphia Phillies franchise since 2007, it’s easy to understand why general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and ownership would try to squeeze one more year of contention out of an aging group.

Wrong, but understandable.

Injuries and uneven performances from past stars were to blame for the disappointing 81-81 finish in 2012. If older players bounce back, new additions surprise and Washington isn’t ready for the bull’s eye on their back, it’s possible that Philadelphia can turn back the clock and raise a division championship once again.

It’s more likely that a rebuilding effort will be expedited between now and the start of the 2014 season.

If the former NL East juggernaut intends to reclaim the throne from Washington and Atlanta, they need to embrace change, specifically in the mindset of roster building.

Before suggesting any specific moves, the stale, old mentality of roster building must be removed from the Citizens Bank Park offices.

Sabermetrics aren’t the only way to build a baseball team in 2013, but they must be part of the process in every single roster decision. While the “Tyranny of Acronyms” has turned off some old-school thinkers, making them believe advanced statistics are for nerds, the advanced stats should be viewed as tools used to make better decisions.

As late as May 2012, members of the Phillies brass brushed off the notion of using sabermetrics to evaluate players.

“I honestly can’t tell you the last time WAR or VORP or any of those things were brought up in a conversation,” assistant GM Scott Proefrock told Bob Brookover of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “We’re aware of them, and we understand what they are. It’s just not something we find relevant.”

In a possible sign of softening that stance, Philadelphia reached an agreement with ScoutAdvisor Corporation last November, bringing advance scouting and analytical technology into the fold for the 2013 season.

Of course, that didn’t stop the franchise from acquiring Michael Young, Delmon Young, Mike Adams, Chad Durbin or John Lannan this offseason. All have some level of upside, but all come with red flags in terms of age, health or consistent production.

In short, they were brought in to help squeeze one more year of contention out of an aging roster. At some point, the front office must read the writing on the wall: The offense is trending downward at an alarming rate and the top-heavy pitching staff may no longer be great enough to carry the load. 

The following chart shows Philadelphia’s OPS (on-base plus slugging) and runs scored rankings over the past six year across all of Major League Baseball:

Year	.OPS	Rank	Runs	Rank
2007	.812	Second	892	Second
2008	.770	Seventh	799	T-Eighth
2009	.781	Sixth	820	Fourth
2010	.745	11th	772	Seventh
2011	.717	15th	713	13th
2012	.716	17th	684	19th

Between a declining offense and question marks in the rotation, it’s time for Philadelphia to change the status quo.

Much like moving Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence last July, moves can be made to improve the future of the franchise.

Recognizing the importance of analytics and the ceiling of this current group can open the door to a few moves that could pay dividends in 2014 and beyond. That could mean an openness to moving Chase Utley at the trade deadline, playing Domonic Brown full-time and giving young potential contributors like Tommy Joseph, Cody Asche and Antonio Bastardo bigger roles as the summer moves on.

CBS Sports’ Scott Miller breaks down the 2013 Phillies:

Utley was the heart and soul of the 2008 World Series champions. His .911 OPS from 2004-09 is one of the greatest runs a second baseman has ever seen. Unfortunately, those days are behind him. If he can stay healthy and produce at a valuable level, Amaro should consider moving him to a contender at the deadline, à la the Beltran-for-Wheeler trade executed in New York a few years back.

Domonic Brown has never been a Charlie Manuel favorite, but his stellar spring training—and lack of other outfield options—may lead to his first full season in the big leagues. Will a career .373 minor league OBP translate in the majors? It’s time for Philadelphia to finally find out.

Cody Asche is the “third baseman of the future” in the Philadelphia system. Antonio Bastardo has the ability to be a high-leverage, lockdown reliever. Tommy Joseph brings a power bat from behind the plate. As the summer goes on—barring All-Star-level campaigns from Michael Young. Mike Adams and Carlos Ruiz—both need to be given more opportunity on the big stage.

Asche could hit his way to the bigs and past Michael Young into the lineup. Bastardo‘s numbers and strikeout ability scream “closer of the future” rather than left-handed specialist or seventh-inning man. Joseph’s power bat and future should be put ahead of the aging impending free agent Carlos Ruiz.

If the Phillies go years without competing for another postseason spot, it will be from stubbornness rather than a lack of options.

The past is over for this Phillies group. Fans may not love the idea of building and thinking for the future, but it’s the best way to proceed.

Another era of winning baseball can be around the corner. Forward thinking, shrewd moves and understanding the potential of the current roster are the keys to Phillies fans seeing it in the near future.

Joe Giglio is an MLB Lead Writer covering the NL and AL East. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports.

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Full Update of Surprises, Busts and Injuries at Philadelphia Phillies Camp

Baseball is a sport where anything can happen and no time of the year epitomizes that more than spring training, where rookies, veterans and players who aren’t even guaranteed a spot on the roster congregate with a common goal: Make the club and win a World Series title. 

As you can imagine, spring training breeds a number of interesting results, and the Philadelphia Phillies are no exception. This is a club battling age and injuries, doing their best to prove that they can still compete in the National League East. 

Throughout the season, keeping this club healthy is going to be the key to their success. If names like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are on the field and producing, they can contend. 

They’ll also have to receive some positive play from a few unlikely sources—we’ll call those guys the “surprises”—and avoid players that struggle over long periods of time. For the sake of this slideshow, those guys will be called “busts.” 

With those parameters in mind, let’s update where the Phillies’ injuries, surprises and busts stand at this point in camp. 

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Breaking Down Philadelphia Phillies’ Blueprint for Winning the Division

The Philadelphia Phillies were in an unfamiliar position at the end of last season.

Rather than preparing for a postseason division series, the Phillies ceded their position atop the National League East and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006.

The good news is that with Opening Day less than two weeks away, the Phillies will soon have an opportunity to make their way back to the top of the NL East standings and, in the process, the postseason.

In order to do so, however, a number of things must go right, ranging from the health and productivity of the players to the decisions made by the coaching staff and front office.

If it all works, the Phillies just might have a chance to start a new streak this season.

Here is a blueprint for the Phillies to make their way back to the top of the National League East.

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Philadelphia Phillies Under the Most Pressure the Rest of Spring Training

At its core, spring training is a small sample size of players doing their best to shake off the rust in anticipation of the upcoming regular season, but it also carries all of the blessings and curses of a that sample size. 

Regardless of who you are, if you play well through the month of March people anticipate your regular season. This rings especially true when a team like the Philadelphia Phillies receives good performances from players like Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown. 

That’s the blessing. If you play well in a small sample size, you have the opportunity to throw up some impressive numbers and crank the hype machine into full gear prior to the regular season. 

The curse is equally as powerful. Any player that performs poorly over a small sample size generates concern. Take a look at Roy Halladay. He is a two-time Cy Young Award winner with a pair of no-hitters, including a perfect game, under his belt. 

But he hasn’t pitched well this spring and people are concerned about his future. Is that a warranted concern? 

Spring training is ultimately a handful of exhibition games, but they’re important games for a lot of players. They could help to determine a job. They play a role in what kind of start the team gets off to. 

There will be a number of players under a lot of pressure as the second half of spring training begins. Here they are. 

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

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Philadelphia Phillies Players Set to Outplay Their Contracts in 2013

All the offseason buzz around the Philadelphia Phillies seemed to be around Darin Ruf.

But Ruf is hitting .205 this spring and pretty clearly cannot play left field at a major league level. So that’s the last you’ll hear about him in this article.

Instead, the biggest focus here has to be on the Phillies’ Forgotten Man, the ultimate post-hype sleeper.

Domonic Brown‘s production so far this spring has the Phillies believing that the “answer” they have been looking for in the outfield has been right there all along.

Assuming Brown makes the major league club and sticks all season, Brown will make $490,000 in 2013. That is the Major League Baseball minimum salary.

In a season where Alex Rodriguez is primed to “earn” $28 million to play maybe half-a-season for the New York Yankees, it will not take much for Brown to outplay his contract.

Early returns, though, are exceptionally encouraging.

Thus far at Clearwater, Brown leads the team in hits and runs scored. He is also tied with a resurgent Ryan Howard for the team lead in home runs.

This is an abrupt about-face for a player with Brown’s spotty statistics to this point in his career.

Domonic Brown has been wearing the “prospect” label now for what seems like half a decade. He is 25 years old. He only played 56 games for the Phillies last season.

But for Brown’s prior status as an up-and-coming player, his .236 lifetime batting average in 147 games would probably have earned his release.

To his credit, though, Brown’s 2013 spring training indicates that he is serious about not just making the team, but (per the Philadelphia Inquirer) earning a starting job and keeping it.

The other two big return-on-investment guys are new faces in Philadelphia.

Ben Revere was brought in to man center field after the departure of Shane Victorino last August.

The Phillies gave up Vance Worley and highly regarded pitching prospect Trevor May to pry Revere from the Minnesota Twins. 

Charlie Manuel needs to figure out what to do with a player like Revere—74 career stolen bases, zero career home runs—in a lineup already a bit starved for the long ball.

But so far, Revere is doing exactly what the Phillies hope he will do all season. He is second on the team in both hits and runs scored.

Like Brown, Revere is slated to make the MLB minimum in 2013. He should outperform that by plenty.

And while it may seem strange to put a player set to make $16 million in 2013 on this list, Michael Young fits here.

Considering that the Phillies are only paying $6 million of what Young is due, his spring statistics so far (.294 batting average, tied for second in runs batted in with nine) suggest that Young will be a comparative bargain at third base in 2013.

For a Phillies team stuck with a number of contracts unlikely to fully pay off (Chase Utley, Roy Halladay and Howard come to mind), some good news from the hot starters of spring training is really welcome.

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