Philadelphia Phillies’ Biggest Winners & Losers Halfway Through Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies have something to prove this season. 

This is a theme that has already begun during spring training, as most of their regulars are fighting to prove that they can be healthy and effective and that they will extend these efforts through the regular season as they attempt to topple the reigning division champion Washington Nationals. 

It’s not going to be easy, though, especially if this spring is any indication. There have been very high notes for the Phillies this spring, but there have been some questionable moments as well. 

While there is a strong sense of optimism in the air, one cannot go a full day without that pungent smell of doubt wafting across your nose. 

At the outset of spring training, no one thought that this was going to be an easy season for the Phillies. Now, with half of the spring slate in the books, we can take a look at some of the club’s winners and losers in camp so far. 

Which players should the Phillies be concerned about, and which ones are ready to roll? With opening day roughly two weeks away, it’s time to take stock once again.

 

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies: What Would Return to Ace Form by Roy Halladay Give Phils?

During Roy Halladay‘s time in Philadelphia, as he has gone so has his club.

Halladay joined the Phillies in 2010. He won 21 games, with nine complete games and four shutouts. He threw 250.2 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 7.3.

All of these numbers led the National League, and Halladay won the 2010 National League Cy Young Award. In a related story, the Phillies won 97 games that year.

And there was that little matter of the no-hitter he threw at the Cincinnati Reds in their 2010 National League Division Series.

Sure, the San Francisco Giants touched him up some (most notably Cody Ross) in the National League Championship Series. But the entire Phillies team had to answer for that series loss.

A year later, Halladay was again very special. Nineteen wins, eight complete games and 233.2 more strong innings. His team won a franchise-record 102 games.

And while he took the loss in Game 5 of the 2011 National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, he went eight innings in that game and gave up one run. Again, his team lost, but he could hardly be blamed.

Even after earning $15.7 million in 2010 and $20 million in 2011, Halladay outperformed his contract in both of those seasons.

2012, of course, was another matter entirely.

Halladay came crashing down to earth last season.

Fresh off that 2010 National League Cy Young Award and finishing runner-up in that voting the next season, Doc posted this line: 11-8, 4.49 ERA, a half-dozen starts missed and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.67, his worst since 2007.

Not surprisingly, with their most-accomplished pitcher struggling so mightily, the Phillies won as many as they lost in 2012.

The simplest answer to the question of what a return to form by Halladay would mean for the Phillies is expressed in one word: everything.

If Halladay can muster one more season where he makes (and goes deep into) most of his starts, the Phillies’ plan of having three legitimate stoppers at the top of the rotation as they did in 2011 can be deployed again to devastating effect.

How important is Halladay to the 2013 Phillies? When he got cuffed around by the Detroit Tigers this week, it made not just local but also national news.

Only Halladay knows if his reduced velocity this spring is truly a case of him needing to build arm strength or, sadly, arm speed forever lost.

But the Phillies’ records with Halladay at the top of the rotation have followed pretty closely with his successes and failures.

There is no compelling reason to believe 2013 will be any different.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies: 6 Most Disappointing Players in Spring Training so Far

As two weeks of spring training have shown the Philadelphia Phillies, not every player invited to major league camp can be deemed as impressive and ready for the start of the 2013 season.

Obviously, no team expects that every guy is going to put on a spring training performance for the ages. Some of the guys invited to camp are there just to get a tryout as it were. Others are there as minor league guys the team wants to take a better look at. And of course, there are the veterans who just are not 100 percent ready at the end of February.

Every team must face that for every Domonic Brown, (2013 spring numbers: .395 BA, 17 H, 15 R, 3 HR), there is going to be a Darin Ruf (2013 spring numbers: .200 BA, 8 SO).

So in taking into consideration factors such as the expectation (measured on a scale of one to 10 with 10 being the highest), 2012 stats and overall spring performance, here are the guys who have disappointed in baseball’s preseason.

Begin Slideshow

Roy Halladay’s Career Innings Mark Suggests Doom for Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies co-ace Roy Halladay suffered through a rough exhibition outing on Tuesday against Detroit, surrendering home runs to Ramon Santiago and Don Kelly, walking four batters, and barely popping radar guns with 84-85 MPH fastballs.

Coming off arguably the worst season of his career, there is a sense of concern in Philadelphia. While speculating on potential injury has become in vogue, it’s likely that Roy Halladay is simply running out of bullets in his right arm. He may not be done, but former pitchers in his class—starters in baseball history with at least 2,600 IP and spectacular ERA+ marks—have been accustomed to dramatic dips in career performance around the innings mark Halladay has presently reached.

Using Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index and sorting by adjusted ERA, only 159 pitchers since 1901 have reached the 2,600 IP mark. Of course, that doesn’t truly tell the story of Halladay’s dominance. Of those 159, only 10 starters in the history of baseball have a better career ERA+ mark than Halladay. For the purposes of this piece, we’re ruling out those that haven’t debuted in the past 50 years.

Using those parameters, the five pitchers most similar to Halladay in terms of innings pitched and ERA+ are Pedro Martinez (154+), Roger Clemens (143+), Randy Johnson (135+), Greg Maddux (132+), and Curt Schilling (127+).

Heading into the 2013 season, Halladay has thrown 2,687.1 IP over 377 big league starts, including 66 complete games. His career adjusted ERA of 134 places him just below Martinez, Clemens, and Johnson. His mark is slightly better than Maddux and Schilling.

Of course, the final numbers for those future Hall of Famers are finished products. Halladay is still pitching. Unlike win total, his ERA+ is likely to only trend down as his career unfolds. As will his effectiveness.

Those five former stars weren’t necessarily done when they hit the innings mark Halladay sits at heading into 2013, but there’s a direct correlation toward their careers before and after comparable innings. In other words, they hit a wall. The same wall Halladay might have reached.

Through the first 2,513 IP of Pedro Martinez’s career, his ERA+ was 166. Afterwards, it was 94, or in other words, below league average. He pitched to a 4.58 ERA over 314 IP to round out his career.

Through the first 2,776 IP of Roger Clemens’ career, his ERA+ was 114. Afterwards, it was 140. Of all the names listed, he was able to keep his performance the most level through the years.

Through the first 2,748 IP of Randy Johnson’s career, his ERA+ was 141. It was 125 beyond that number, including a 5.00 ERA for the Yankees in 2006.

Through the first 2,849 IP of Greg Maddux’s career, his ERA+ was 146. It was 117 beyond that mark.

Through the first 2,812 IP of Curt Schilling’s career, his ERA+ was 131. He dipped to 110+ for the rest of his career, including a stint as a reliever in Boston.

In 2012, Halladay saw his ERA rise over two runs, and a shoulder injury landed him on the disabled list. His K/9 mark dipped to 7.60, its lowest since 2008. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity fell to 90.6 MPH, the lowest mark of his big league career.

It’s widely assumed that the Phillies are the third best team in the National League East behind Washington and Atlanta. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a postseason threat, though. If you believe in the former National League juggernaut, it’s likely because of stellar starting pitching.

Last year may have been an aberration for Halladay and the Phillies. 

Or it may have been the beginning of the end for a Hall of Fame starter and the best team Philadelphia has ever fielded. The careers of Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, and Schilling serve as a wake-up call for Halladay supporters and detractors. Dissecting every Halladay pitch this spring has some merit, but the wear and tear is already done. 

Joe Giglio is a MLB Lead Writer covering the NL and AL East. Follow him on Twitter @JoeGiglioSports.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Updated 25-Man Phillies Roster Predictions Midway Through Spring Training

At the midway point through spring training, the Philadelphia Phillies are a team with just as many questions as answers. 

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. While some surprisingly poor performances are undoubtedly a cause for concern, there has been strong competition in the Phillies’ camp this spring and some battles are now a question of who is going to cave first. 

So now, with half of the Grapefruit League slate officially in the books, it’s time once again to update our predictions on the Phillies’ 25-man, Opening Day roster.

What will the lineup look like on Opening Day? Which players “on the bubble” find their way into the bench or bullpen? 

Needless to say, the last few weeks of Grapefruit League action are going to determine a lot for the Phillies in the early portion of the regular season. Here’s where things stand now.

Begin Slideshow

Why Baseball Prospectus’ Predictions for Philadelphia Phillies Are All Wrong

Many experts and independent baseball blogs alike have the Philadelphia Phillies poised to finish in third place by the end of the upcoming season. As a result of the team’s 81-81 finish last year in addition to an aging core group of players, for the first time since 2008 the Phillies are not widely projected to finish as the top dog in the NL East. Not to mention that more significant upgrades by division-mates Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves slot them further into contention.

However, one website in particular stands out in its projection for the Phillies in 2013. In my opinion, the Phillies are slated to win 87 or 88 games in 2013. I haven’t yet decided on that final amount, but somewhere in that ballpark sounds about right to me.

I’m not too far out there like FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi, who believes that the Phillies will finish ahead of the Braves in 2013, but I do believe the Phillies will have a better finish than that of 2012 (per HardballTalk.com). What bothers me is that baseball website Baseball Prospectus has the Phillies projected not only to finish third in the NL East once again, but they also project the Phillies to finish at 81-81, just like last year.

Given the Phillies’ small yet cost-efficient upgrades this offseason at multiple positions, there’s no reason they shouldn’t do better than posting a .500 record. Here’s five reasons why Baseball Prospects dropped the ball on their projection for the Phillies.

Begin Slideshow

Phillies Spring Training 2013: Daily Updates, Scores, News and Analysis

The times are changing in Philadelphia, though whether or not that is a good thing for the Phillies remains to be seen. 

It is no secret that this team is getting old, fragile and is betting a lot on some players who have never been very good or haven’t been good in a long time.

Adding Michael Young and Delmon Young as the starting third baseman and right fielder, respectively, has disaster written all over it. Acquiring Ben Revere from Minnesota will help the outfield defense, but he will have so much ground to cover on his own with Young and either Domonic Brown or Darin Ruf in the corner spots. 

The Phillies do still have a quality rotation, especially at the top with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Getting Roy Halladay back and pitching close to the level he was at pre-2012 will be crucial. 

Spring training is huge for this team, because it has to keep all of its core players healthy if it wants to compete in the National League East. Chase Utley is as close to full strength as he is ever going to get, which is a huge boost to the middle of that lineup. 

But other than Utley, the batting order looks suspect. Ryan Howard can’t hit left-handed pitching; Carlos Ruiz is coming off the best year of his career at age 34 but is suspended for the first 25 games of the season for a failed drug test; and Jimmy Rollins had a .316 on-base percentage out of the leadoff spot last year. 

There is also no significant help coming from the minors. The Legend of Darin Ruf will get a wake-up call in the big leagues this season, as his tear through Double-A last season came at the age of 26, and he is miscast in the outfield. 

This is a fascinating team to watch, though not for a lot of reasons Philadelphia fans would like. Here is a closer look at what we expect the 25-man roster to look like, the projected starting lineup and daily results and news from spring training games.

Begin Slideshow

Early Signs Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay Will Be the Stars of Old in 2013

Something was missing last season. 

The Philadelphia Phillies spent the following offseason trying to figure out what it was, adding a setup man, a fifth starter, a center fielder and a third baseman. On paper, is this a better team than the one that was listed for the 2012 campaign? It’s close. 

So what was the biggest difference for the Phillies between then and now? With optimism abound, at least some of those missing pieces must be in place. 

The simple answer is that the return of aging, injured stars has given Phillies fans a reason to be optimistic. Players like Chase Utley, Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard have the potential to drastically alter the dynamic of a ball club. 

Earlier this spring we took a look at ways to keep Utley healthy. Now we need to get to the bottom of why the Phillies can contend this spring, and that begins with early looks at reasons to be excited about a huge part of the club’s payroll—Howard and Halladay.

Begin Slideshow

Full Update of Surprises, Busts and Injuries at Philadelphia Phillies Camp

The Philadelphia Phillies recently sent the majority of their prospects training with the major league roster over to their minor league camp, and have just 18 games remaining before the team heads north for Opening Day.

At this point, it’s time for players to narrow down their lists of which areas still need work before the start of the season. For some players, only a few weeks remain to even earn a spot on the major league roster.

The Phillies’ camp has featured a little bit of everything this spring. 

Some players have shined bright while others are still looking for a spark, and some prospects provided optimism for the future while others left much to be desired.

Basically, it’s had all the characteristics of a typical spring training camp.

Since pitchers and catchers first reported nearly a month ago, the Phillies have had their share of surprise performances from players. A few busts here and there so far and, thankfully, few injuries that are still lingering.

The Phils must now hope that two of these three trends continue into the regular season.

This list features only players who either appeared in the major leagues last season, or who were projected as having a chance to make the major league roster out of spring training this season.

With three weeks to go until Opening Day, here is an update on the surprises, busts and injuries at Phillies camp.

Begin Slideshow

Philadelphia Phillies Again City’s Only Serious Hope for Postseason Glory

For too many years now, the Phillies have been Philadelphia’s only legitimate championship contender.

Because of that, the city’s sporting attention has turned hypercritically toward a team that until very recently was a consistent producer of postseason moments.

Unfortunately, 2013 looks to be more of the same, as the wreckage of the seasons of the other major Philadelphia sports teams smolders in the frigid winds of March.

Not that long ago, you could count on the Philadelphia Eagles to contend year in and year out.

Andy Reid’s perennial playoff teams with Donovan McNabb, Brian Dawkins, Brian Westbrook and the rest knocked on the door many times but never quite got in.

Today, to quote Buck Weaver at the end of Eight Men Out, “those guys are all gone now.”

In their place? Chip Kelly and remnants of a team that finished a 4-12 season by laying down in the Meadowlands and losing 42-7 to the New York Giants.

The Philadelphia 76ers entered this season with all sorts of hope. In August, the team had a press conference at the Constitution Center to welcome center (and centerpiece) Andrew Bynum to the club.

Almost seven months later, Bynum has not played one minute for the Sixers and it looks like he never will (per USA Today). The Sixers have fallen out of the playoff hunt and, save for Jrue Holiday, the future is bleak.

As for the Philadelphia Flyers, the names on the backs of the jerseys change but the story never does.

The Flyers still have goaltending problems. They still have a shortage of quality defensemen. They have a ton of big-name, expensive talent, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts.

In other words, it’s the same Flyers team you’ve been watching for 30 years.

Because of the foibles of the other three franchises—below .500 this year, all of them, including the 4-12 Eagles—the Phillies are once again burdened with the hopes of a million or more fans who just want to see a team win.

Before their .500 campaign in 2012, the Phillies had won five straight division titles, two pennants and a World Series in five years.

Their last losing season came in 2002—when they were 80-81.

This, and the aforementioned failures of all the other teams in town, at least partially explains why Phillies fans were so sour about 2012, and why ticket sales are down.

This reaction from Phillies fans is like punishing your reliable A student for getting a B- while your other three kids have dropped out of school entirely.

In 2013, the Phillies figure to have plenty of difficulty chasing down the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves as they try to squeeze one more playoff run from the core of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins.

The climb will be all the more arduous with the weight of expectation added from the other Philadelphia teams’ repeated disappointments.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

« Previous Page — Next Page »