Predicting Philadelphia Phillies’ Regular-Season Record in 2013

Few predictive models are as well-financed, well-researched and successful as sports books.

Sure, where betting is legal, the books have that little matter of the 10% they collect on losing wagers to ensure their success. But they still get it right more often than not.

The San Francisco 49ers were favored by three or three-and-a-half (depending on where you looked) over the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl in Super Bowl XLVII.

With less than a minute left, the 49ers were inside the Ravens’ 10-yard line, down 34-29. Had they scored a touchdown, the 49ers would have gone for two points (to keep a field goal from beating them).

And the difference in the final score would very possibly have been three points. 

Of course, the Ravens’ defense held, and the final score of 34-31 Ravens made the sharps look dull.

That is the sort of book-breaking magic the Phillies are trying to conjure in 2013.

A quick look at the Ladbrokes World Series odds table tells you what you probably already knew: The Philadelphia Phillies are no longer the front-runners entering 2013.

Per Ladbrokes, the Phillies at 16/1 have an equal chance to win the World Series as the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants.

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, per Ladbrokes, there are nine teams with better odds to win the title—and four of them are in the National League.

The British oddsmakers presently project the Washington Nationals as the National League East’s most likely World Series winners at 8/1. The Cincinnati Reds (9/1), Los Angeles Dodgers (10/1) and Atlanta Braves (14/1) are also preferred to the Phillies.

These odds cannot be disregarded when projecting a win total for the 2013 Phillies. It is apparent that at least one casino in Las Vegas took these odds into account.

Per sbnation.com, when the Atlantis Casino in Las Vegas released their MLB over-unders last month, the house’s projections fell in line with the Ladbrokes odds.

The Nationals’ over-under was 90 wins. Atlanta’s over-under was 86 wins. And the Phillies’ over-under was 81.5.

One-half game better than they had in an injury-plagued, severely-underachieving 2012 season? Even a hardened, cynical Phillies fan has to question the validity of that sort of pessimism.

Any team would struggle without healthy, effective play from its three- and four-hole hitters in the lineup and without its ace.

Without Utley, Howard and Halladay, that is essentially what the Phillies were dealing with. So far this spring, all three have looked healthy and capable of returning to a high level of play.

Further, the Phillies’ 13 blown eighth-inning leads (per the New York Times) should be a problem left behind following the acquisitions of Mike Adams and Chad Durbin.

Those two figure to do a better job of getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon with a lead than did, say, Jeremy Horst.

So my prediction for the Phillies in 2013 is full health (or close to it) for Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay. Those last two, along with Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz, are all in contract years—so whatever they have left, you’ll see it.

Putting it all together, I see 87 wins for the Phillies and a race for the final wild-card berth that goes to the final day of the regular season.

In fact, based on the odds, I’d sign up for 87 wins right now.

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Peyton Manning Should Be Inspiration for 2013 Philadelphia Phillies

As the calendar turns to March, we are approaching the one-year anniversary of a pretty monumental day in the history of American professional sports.

One year ago Thursday, Peyton Manning was released from the Indianapolis Colts, the organization by which he was drafted first overall in 1998 and was with for 14 seasons. During that time, he became arguably the best quarterback of his generation and put himself in with the top 10 players to ever play the position. The term “face of the franchise” has become a cliche in professional sports, but it was an unadulterated reality in Manning’s case. He truly was the Indianapolis Colts.

But alas, after a bizarre neck injury caused Manning to miss the entire 2011 season, subsequently contributing to the Colts going 2-14 that season and earning the top overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, he suddenly became expendable. With the shining blue-chip Andrew Luck waiting in the draft and ready to play, it simply did not make sense to bring back a 36-year-old QB coming off injury and send the best QB prospect in years to the bench.

Let me make a disclaimer—I am not condemning what the Colts did. They did what they had to do. The situation in Indianapolis was as unique as a snowflake. Had the Colts wound up with any pick lower than second overall in the 2012 draft, they most likely would have kept Manning and traded the high pick for several lower picks to put some pieces around the aging star to give him one last chance at a run in his final years.

But that didn’t happen. The Colts had the first overall pick, Luck fell into their lap, and here we are.

Having said that, allow me to take you back to the end of 2011. While it is easy to forget since so much time has elapsed, maybe you remember how bleak the outlook on Manning’s career was.

Many people predicted he would embarrass himself in 2012, posting the worst stats since his rookie year and having to end a great career in shame.

Others predicted that his body would have the solidity of a chocolate eclair after a year on the couch, and he would suffer a career-ending injury on his first sack.

A friend of mine even predicted that he would retire in 2012 training camp, realizing the game passed him by.

Of course, we know this did not happen. Manning totally idiocized the pessimistic predictions, posting the best season of his wonderful career next to his legendary 2004 MVP performance. By notching eight yards per attempt, 37 TD passes to only 11 INT, and achieving a terrific 105.8 passer rating, Peyton made everybody forget the bleakness of his post-2011 outlook.

Okay, I am finally going to get to baseball now.

The Phillies can take a lot of optimism out of the Peyton Manning story. The 2012 Phillies were obviously decimated by injury. The problem with that squad wasn’t only that Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Roy Halladay missed significant time. The big issue was that all three players’ injuries ruined their performance on the field, with Utley putting up a slash line of .256/11/45, Howard going .219/14/56, and Roy Halladay putting up a 4.49 ERA with a 1.222 WHIP.

These bad 2012 seasons by the three cornerstone players on the team have pundits predicting they will face a very tough uphill battle with the Nationals and the Braves in 2013. The other two NL East teams are looked at as the young forces set to take their places at the table, while the Phillies are the broken-down old veterans who the game has passed by.

But, just as Peyton Manning disproved so many doubters, so can the Phillies.

Chase Utley can hit .280 with 25 HR.

Ryan Howard can hit 42 HR and knock in 130.

Roy Halladay can pitch 230 innings, put up a sub-3.00 ERA, and amass 200 strikeouts.

If one of these things happen, the Phillies could make that seven-game jump that would have been necessary to make the playoffs last year.

If two of these things happen, the Phillies can win 91-93 games, and be a legitimate threat for the NL East crown.

If all three happen, then the Nationals and the Braves be damned. The Phillies out-and-out win the NL East and are NL favorites for the World Series.

Do these things seem implausible? Maybe.

But how many people expected the 2012 Peyton Manning to put up a 105.8 passer rating a year ago today?

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Biggest Winners and Losers of Phillies’ First Week of Games

With just a week’s worth of spring training games in the books. it is far too soon to formulate a realistic opinion of any one player. But it is never too soon for a player to make a good impression. Of course, it’s never too soon for a player to make a bad impression either. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have had their share of good and bad moments early in the spring, and we’ll take a look at some of its early winners and losers in the following slides. With that in mind, however, a word of caution: Don’t read too deeply into spring stats. 

For most players on this roster, the spring is a time of preparation, not competition. Veteran players and most pitchers are trying to fine-tune themselves for the regular season and are not focused on putting up good numbers. 

But there is more to it than that. It’s about how certain players look and feel during the spring as well. For the Phillies, a lot will have to fall in their direction this upcoming season. How certain players look and feel during the first week of the spring could go a long way. 

Here are the early winners and losers. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Standout Stars from First Week of Spring Training

For the Philadelphia Phillies, the first week of spring training provided a taste of what fans will see this season, a benchmark for which to judge rookies, realistic expectations for returning players and of course, a chance to see the team take the field for the first time in months.

While many consider spring games to be meaningless, they do enable teams the opportunity to evaluate their current personnel alongside the minor league talent that might soon join them. For the Phillies, this has definitely been a big part of the spring equation as guys like Tommy Joseph, Cody Asche and Ender Inciarte have all gotten their chance to impress this spring.

In addition, position battles are often decided based on spring performances. This off season, the Phillies have two, notably the corner outfield spots and the remaining roles in the bullpen. With a strong start, Domonic Brown has charged ahead in the race for starting right fielder while guys like Rodrigo Lopez have started strong en route to earning a possible bullpen spot.

Then there are the lingering injury questions that only a nine inning baseball game, not baseball activities, can provide. So far so good for Ryan Howard as he has charged ahead as the team’s best spring performer. The jury is still out on Chase Utley, who has received minimal playing time as he handles his knee problems.

Overall, it has been a fun first week, with a handful of noted performances that could speak for a positive start to the 2013 season.

Here are the top ten early spring performers as well as one honorable mention after the team’s first week of games.

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 2013 Phils Will Put ‘Contract Year’ Effect to Stern Test

“Of course he’s playing hard; he’s in a contract year.”

This is the sort of thing you hear every season when a young player about to hit free agency for the first time, or a veteran player on the last year of his current deal, raises his game noticeably.

For the 2013 Phillies, the “contract year” effect could pay huge dividends.

Chase Utley is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract.

From 2007-2010 (the first four years of the contract), Utley made the All-Star team every season. 

When Utley missed 47 games in 2010, it was the team’s first real indication that injuries were going to be a problem for their cornerstone second baseman.

Utley missed 59 more games in 2011; in concert with the end of the the Phillies‘ five-year playoff run in 2012, Utley played only four more games (83) than he missed (79).

Along with all the missed games came declines in Utley’s production. From 2005 through 2008, Utley drove in more than 100 runs every year, hit no fewer than 22 home runs, hit no worse than .291 and scored more than 100 runs three times, including a league-leading 131 runs scored in 2006.

But in the past two seasons, Utley has 44 and 45 runs batted in and batting averages of .259 and .256, respectively. These are not the sorts of numbers that will inspire the Phillies or anyone else to give Utley one final “big” contract.

Utley’s motivation for 2013 is evident in his mere presence on the field in Clearwater—2013 marks the first time Utley has played a spring training game since 2010.

The 2013 Phillies could benefit from Utley’s desire to re-establish his value in advance of free agency.

Roy Halladay is in the final year of the three-year contract extension he signed in December of 2009. He will make $20 million this season.

If he pitches 258.2 innings in 2013, his $20 million option for 2014 will vest. Because his career high in innings pitched is 266 (in 2003), it seems patently unlikely that Halladay can make that happen.

So Halladay is essentially pitching for another contract. Halladay has to prove that his 2012 drop-off (11-8, 4.49 ERA) was a one-off and that he can still pitch at or near the top of a rotation to bolster his value in free agency.

To lesser extents, the “contract year” effect will be tested in other areas of the Phillies’ projected lineup.

Carlos Ruiz is in the last year of his current contract, which calls for him to make $5 million this season. Coming off a 2012 campaign that saw him post career bests in the Triple Crown categories, Ruiz figured to be setting himself up for a windfall in free agency.

Then he was hit with a 25-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy. When he comes back, then, Ruiz will be playing to prove not only that he can produce while clean, but that time (he recently turned 34 years of age) has not caught up to him.

Michael Young will make just over $16 million this season and, at age 36, is unsigned thereafter. He hit .277 last year. Michael Young also needs to put up numbers to earn another deal; by “numbers,” read that as home runs and runs batted in, as he will play a power position (third base) in a hitter-friendly environment.

Delmon Young signed a one-year contract for $750,000. Coming off ankle surgery, he must get fully healthy and demonstrate that he can play right field without seeing his hitting suffer to boost his value next offseason.

That makes five players who figure to be prominently involved in the success or failure of the 2013 Phillies who are, to varying degrees, playing for their professional lives.

Is the “contract year” phenomenon reality or myth?

The 2013 Phillies hope it’s the real thing.

 

All contract data in this article per www.baseball-reference.com.

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Full Scouting Reports for Each Philadelphia Phillies Prospect at Spring Training

Spring training this year is providing the Philadelphia Phillies with an opportunity to view the young prospects hoping to become a part of the team, and the veterans looking to put 2012 in their rearview mirror.

However, this year’s camp doesn’t just include prospects who are still a few years away from the major leagues. 

Instead, several are currently in camp who could potentially end up on the Opening Day roster, earn a call-up during the season or make their case for a chance to replace an impending free agent next season.

Regardless of the situation for each prospect in camp, now is their opportunity to prove that they can hold their own with and against major league talent.

This list features 15 players who have always been considered prospects, or who used tremendous 2012 campaigns to earn the label.

Here are scouting reports for each of these Phillies’ prospects at spring training.

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25 Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies in the Month of March

Spring training is in full swing and the Philadelphia Phillies have enough storylines to make your eyes spin. There’s everything from a simple position battle to whether potential starters can actually field their designated positions.

But, hey, that’s the glory of spring training.

As the Phillies try to sort through their problems, it’s time to offer up some predictions for what this month of March will contain for a team desperately trying to claw its way back to the top of the mountain.

It’s not going to be easy. The Phillies’ division is tough with powerhouse teams such as the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. Their league is tough, as they’ll square off with the Los Angeles Dodgers and defending champion San Francisco Giants, among others.

If this Phillies team wants to play in October, a lot of things will have to break right for them.

It all starts in spring training.

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Domonic Brown’s Fast Start Could Help Him Earn Starting Job with Phillies Soon

Remember last month when the possibility existed that the Philadelphia Phillies could use a double-platoon for their corner outfield spots, rather than naming a starter at each position heading into spring training?

Although the eventual signing of Delmon Young made it appear as if the Phillies had their candidate for an everyday right fielder, left field was still a mystery.  And following news from Jim Salisbury on CSNPhilly.com that Young could not only miss Opening Day, but also much of April, it appeared as if both corner outfield spots were back up for grabs.

That is, unless Domonic Brown continues with his strong early showing.

The Phillies have only played four spring training games, but manager Charlie Manuel recently spoke on the outfield situation in an article by David Murphy on Philly.com, and made sure he mentioned Brown’s name when it came to which players could claim spots early.

We’ve got 10 outfielders, and somewhere along the line, probably about two-thirds of the way through spring training, we’re going to have to make decisions on at least four of them, Manuel said.  We’re going to try to get them all some playing time where we can see them enough.  If somebody jumps out and really gets going, like Brown right now, the last three days he’s really swung good.  He’s played good in the outfield, things like that.  We could settle on a guy or something.

 

Again, it’s still very early in camp.  But another week of strong performances, similar to the one he had today, could allow Brown to see his name officially penciled into a starting corner outfield spot.

Brown hit his second home run in four spring training games against the New York Yankees today, and now has three hits in seven at-bats this spring. 

Manuel is not the only member of the Phillies who has been encouraged by Brown so far.  In another article by David Murphy on Philly.com, it is noted that both Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard believe in Brown’s ability this season, and may already think it’s time to give him an everyday starting job.

Brown may not have many opportunities left with the Phillies.  In 147 career games over the last three seasons, Brown has a career average of .236 to go with 12 home runs and 58 RBI.  However, his two home runs already this spring are nearly half his total from a year ago in the major leagues.

With Ben Revere already locked into the starting center field job and John Mayberry, Jr. and Laynce Nix serving as better options off the bench rather than starters, Brown and Darin Ruf give the Phillies two young players with the potential to win starting outfield jobs. 

Once Young returns, both players could also be candidates for being sent down to the minor leagues depending on how they have performed up until that point. 

Throw in Rule 5 draft pick Ender Inciarte, and the Phillies have an even more interesting situation in their outfield.

However, this situation could also mean that the team is hoping at least one player will step up early and earn a starting job, regardless of whether Young is on the roster.

Following his monster home run today, Brown has certainly gotten off to the type of start that the team was hoping for early.  

If Brown is able to keep this fast start going, he could soon earn a starting job for Opening Day, something he has never received.

Since debuting in 2010, Brown has experienced two vastly different situations with the Phillies.  In 2011, Brown had an opportunity to remain as the Phils‘ everyday right fielder, before a .165 batting average in June led to the Phillies acquiring Hunter Pence a month later.  Last season, Brown was not called-up until Pence was traded to the San Francisco Giants in late July.  Following his promotion, Brown batted .235 while playing in an outfield that looked much different after the trade deadline.

In 2011, Brown played on a Phillies team that was on pace to win a franchise record number of games, and win the National League East by 13 games.  Last season he played on a Phillies team that finished 17 games back of first place. 

Playing in these situations allowed Brown to play on a team with little pressure on it during the regular season due to a strong lead in the standings, and on a team that, except for a late season charge at the second wild card spot, was hardly in playoff contention.  Two very different situations, yet two situations that were not as high pressured as some the Phillies have seen in recent seasons. 

However, despite the lack of pressure, Brown was unable to earn and maintain an everyday starter’s job in the outfield.

This year, with an open competition for the corner outfield spots, Brown has a third chance to claim a starting outfield job.

Although the returns are still very early, it appears as if the third time might be the charm.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects Rankings, Spring Forecasts

Headed into the 2012 season, nobody expected the Phillies to be anything less than a playoff contender, let alone struggle mightily as they did.

By the all-star break, the team’s postseason aspirations had faded, and a few weeks later they began clearing house by moving both Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trade deadline.

However, while their overall season was a disappointment, they did add a few nice pieces to their severely depleted farm system in Ethan Martin and Tommy Joseph. Furthermore, pitching prospects such as Jesse Biddle, Adam Morgan and Jonathan Pettibone all took steps forward in terms of individual development, while Maikel Franco and Roman Quinn established themselves as young, high-ceiling talent.

As you will see, their top 10 has a much different look than it did a year ago.

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Latest Predictions for the Winner of Each Philadelphia Phillies Position Battle

Baseball is back.

The Philadelphia Phillies have played in just three games thus far in spring training, but already the scheme of things is starting to shape the roster for Opening Day. Pitchers and players galore have had a handful of opportunities already, whether on offense or on defense, to make their mark. And for those who have to do so to win a job, it’s especially important.

Manager Charlie Manuel’s lineup for Opening Day is already set in some places. In place of the suspended Carlos Ruiz, Erik Kratz is bound to start at catcher. The infield of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Michael Young is set. And Ben Revere is entrenched as the Phils‘ center fielder.

Pitching-wise, the rotation looks good. Not too long ago, the order of the rotation was in flux, but after pitching coach Rich Dubee gave Cole Hamels the first start of spring training, it looks as though he’s in line to make his first Opening Day start. Hamels precedes Roy Halladay, who is followed by Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan.

As for the bullpen, things aren’t as set there. Seven spots are likely to be open for the season, but four are already filled.

Middle reliever Chad Durbin was brought back to Philadelphia this past offseason. Left-hander Antonio Bastardo returns as the Phillies’ primary southpaw relief option. And newly-signed setup man Mike Adams will join closer Jonathan Papelbon who, should he not have had his expensive contract, might have been cut after his dismal performance yesterday when he surrendered six runs in just two thirds of an inning to the Detroit Tigers.

All joking aside, there do remain some positions where the Phillies aren’t set just yet. The bullpen remains as one of them, and the outfield is still an unknown commodity. Fortunately, that’s where this comes in. Yes, it’s a little early to base projections off of previous play so far with such a small sample size, but it will have to do for today.

In the outfield, Revere is a lock for center field despite an error in the first game against the Houston Astros. However, Darin Ruf‘s potential defensive liabilities were displayed when he improperly fielded a ground ball in the outfield that ricocheted off his glove into the back corner. Will that be an issue, or will Ruf still get the nod?

What Ruf has in his favor is that he’s a good hitter, though he has yet to get a hit so far in spring training games. He’s also got the fact that Delmon Young will be hurt to start the year, but a big factor is that the Phillies plan on only using Young in right field, meaning that left field is up for grabs. Does that mean that Ruf, who can only play left field in the outfield, has the edge to win the job?

The Phillies outfielder who has really shone so far is Domonic Brown. After three seasons ushering Brown back and forth between the majors and minors, hope for Brown had dissipated over time.

However, so far in spring training, he has hit very well, hitting 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI. In three games, that’s not half bad. He also registered two hits in the Phillies’ intrasquad game last Friday. Defensively, Brown been adequate so far and has impressed Manuel (per Phillies.com).

Nevertheless, Brown and Ruf should have the edge as of now, as there really isn’t anybody else to fill those roles internally. Laynce Nix and John Mayberry Jr., along with Ender Inciarte, could be options down the road, but none will start on a regular basis, if at all.

In the bullpen, the three spots open will likely go to some trio of Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman, Jeremy Horst, Michael Stutes and Raul Valdes. With three righties and three lefties in that mix, who will get the nod?

If I had to guess, I’d say that the Phillies will select two righties out of that bunch and one southpaw. The lefty with the edge, in my opinion, is Jeremy Horst. In his debut against the Astros, Horst wasn’t the sharpest he’s been, surrendering one run on three hits in two innings. However, neither Valdes nor Diekman has been better, so due to his success last year, Horst is the front-runner.

As for the remaining two spots, Aumont absolutely is on the fast track. After the Phillies traded Michael Schwimer to the Toronto Blue Jays, it meant that one fewer right-handed reliever was fighting for a job. It benefits nobody but Aumont, who has struggled with control yet has been the best of the bunch so far.

I’ll give the final job to Justin De Fratus despite him surrendering two runs in two innings on Saturday against Houston. Stutes may work his way back to get the job, but considering that his first time on a pitching mound since April 2012 was yesterday, he may need more seasoning in the minors before he’s ready for a full majors workload.

So there you have it. Brown and Ruf in the outfield, and Horst, Aumont and De Fratus taking up the final bullpen spots. Remember, this is just the beginning of spring training, so nothing is imminent nor is it fully predictable. Will these trends continue? We’ll have to wait and see.

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