MLB Preseason Evaluation Series: 2013 Philadelphia Phillies

This series will evaluate one team per day, starting on January 23, 2013 and ending on February 22, 2013 (the first game of spring training). It is based on last season’s performance, offseason changes since and the author’s outlook for the team in 2013. Please keep in mind that rosters can, and will, change before Opening Day. We started in the AL East and now go to the NL side, starting in the East and going in alphabetical order. Next up, the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

2012 finish: 81-81 (3rd place, NL East)

 

Key additions

LHP John Lannan, RHP Chad Durbin, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, RHP Mike Adams, RHP Juan Cruz, RHP Aaron Cook, OF Ben Revere, OF Delmon Young, 3B Michael Young

 

Key losses

RHP Josh Lindblom, RHP Jose Contreras, RHP Vance Worley, OF Juan Pierre, OF Nate Schierholtz, 1B Ty Wigginton, 3B Placido Polanco, C Brian Schneider

 

Why they will improve this year

It’s hard to even call the 2012 Phillies a disappointment, given the ridiculous list of injuries they had to endure. The pitching staff was banged up, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard missed time and Carlos Ruiz was out for the stretch run.

And this is exactly why the Phillies are primed for a rebound in 2013. Not only are Utley and Howard due for some good luck on the health front, but the Phillies should have the big three pitchers back for a lot longer than they are used to. 

General Manager Ruben Amaro made a few very shrewd moves in the offseason to upgrade third base and the outfield. Instead of the punchless trio of outfielders they had after the trade deadline last season, they can now rely on the powerful bat of Young in right field and the combination of speed and defense of Revere in center. 

Young, the former Texas Ranger, had been “declining” in Arlington last year, but he’s only one season removed from hitting .338 and still boasts well over 2,000 career hits. Young gives a professional at-bat every time up and plays fundamentally sound at multiple positions. I think this will turn out to be a key pick-up for Philly, and there are a few teams that will regret having not made a viable offer to Texas.

With the most important veteran players back healthy in 2013, plus a few smart additions to the fold (lest we forget about the John Lannan, a very good player buried behind All-Star talent in Washington), I would not be surprised to see Philadelphia approach 90 wins again.

 

Why they will regress this year

The only way that the Phillies regress is if they get bitten by the injury bug again. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are both getting on in years, so while it would be surprising to see them get hurt, it’s always possible. And we’ve seen Howard and Utley both struggle with various ailments in recent years.

Add in the fact that Delmon Young, Michael Young and Jimmy Rollins are getting on in years and Philadelphia is really relying on a largely aging roster. The flip side is even more suspect—how will Domonic Brown, John Mayberry, Jr. and Freddy Galvis perform, especially if more responsibility falls to them in the case of injury?

How will Delmon and Michael Young, Revere and Lannan fit in on a team that’s been a powerful unit weighed down by expectations for years now? While I don’t necessarily foresee team chemistry as an issue, I do expect the catcher’s position to be suspect.

With Carlos Ruiz suspended for the first month or so of 2013, the Phils shouldn’t expect much offensive production from that position for a while. And when Ruiz does return, can he repeat last year’s performance?

Even if he comes remotely close, the Phillies will be in business.

 

The outlook for 2013

Honestly, I’m hard pressed to believe the Phillies will dip below .500 this season. I’m more inclined to see a major improvement in wins. Approaching 90 wins is a legitimate possibility with the healthy return of all three ace pitchers and the big bats of Utley and Howard. 

Adding Michael Young, Delmon Young, Revere and Lannan were all fantastic moves by Amaro. I would be shocked to see Michael Young’s numbers not go back up, and Delmon Young will be a good pick-up even if he has an average year. Anything is an upgrade over Schierholtz. 

Lannan gives the rotation a little added punch, and Revere will flawlessly replace Shane Victorino in the outfield. You have to like the pitching in Philly, and the potential prowess of the lineup. A lot of the power will hinge on whether Delmon Young can recover from an ankle injury and get used to playing right field again after a six-year hiatus.

The main worry for me aside from health is whether or not the veteran hitters who have thrived for so long will continue to do so. Time is running out for one of the older teams in the league, but it’s the opinion of this writer that the Phillies get right back into the wild-card hunt in 2013 and reach the high 80s in wins.

I don’t think they overtake Atlanta or Washington, but they will be surprisingly close.

 

Possible changes before Opening Day

For a while there, it looked like Amaro would go after Vernon Wells and Scott Hairston to upgrade the outfield. Luckily for Phillie fans, they scored with Revere and Young instead. I don’t expect the Phillies to make any other moves before the season begins.

If they were to look into bolstering any position, I’d hope it would be the bullpen, as Phillie relievers ranked in the lower half of the National League in 2012. Adding Durbin, Adams and Cook to that squad will help somewhat, but they could use another lefty arm or two.

 

Biggest surprise: John Lannan

Biggest disappointment: Carlos Ruiz

Bold prediction: Ryan Howard finishes with 35 home runs, 120 RBI

 

Projected lineup (after Ruiz returns)

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS

2. Ben Revere, CF

3. Chase Utley, 2B

4. Ryan Howard, 1B

5. Delmon Young, RF

6. Michael Young, 3B

7. Carlos Ruiz, C

8. Domonic Brown, LF

 

Projected rotation

1. Cole Hamels, LHP

2. Roy Halladay, RHP

3. Cliff Lee, LHP

4. Kyle Kendrick, RHP

5. John Lannan, LHP

 

Projected finish: 89-73 (3rd place, NL East)

 

For other preseason evaluations:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

 

You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @Jamblinman.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

One Goal for Each Philadelphia Phillies Player in Spring Training

Thinking conservatively, the Philadelphia Phillies‘ spring training is going to be “interesting” this year. And I use the word “interesting” because there are a number of words that can be used to describe this upcoming March in Clearwater, Florida, and not all of them are kind. One variable can tip in the wrong direction and all of the sudden this club’s spring training is “horrendous”—just for example.

So when the Phillies arrive to camp this spring, they’ll have specific goals that need to be accomplished if they’re going to be successful. They need Roy Halladay to be healthy. They need guys like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to drive the outfield, and that’s said without mentioning the outfield situation. 

The fact of the matter is that the Phillies are at a crossroads this season. The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves are both very good, young teams, and only getting better. The Phillies are an older team with younger reinforcements on the way, although not readily available. 

Those are the kind of factors that this club needs to be aware of this spring. The following slideshow will list one, major goal for every player and outline what they need to do to have a successful season both for themselves and the team. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Comparing the Current Lineup to the 1983 ‘Wheeze Kids’

Let’s go back a couple of years to remember a certain Philadelphia Phillies team that will always live in the minds and hearts of the fans.

Ah yes, the year was 2008 and the team was coming off of a glorious and spirited World Championship run, one that won’t quickly be forgotten. The year following, the expectations didn’t at all waiver, yet, ultimately, the team came up short.

As the core that brought the city of Philadelphia a championship got older, the Phillies failed time and time again, coming up short in a run at another championship. The players got older and the expectations lessened.

So was the story of the post 2008 Phillies, a team that…

Wait… Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

I’m willing to bet most of you have because that is exactly what is going on with the Phillies now. The 2013 team is in the same situation as a team from not too long ago; 30 years to be exact.

The year was 1983 and the Phillies were just three seasons removed from winning the first ever championship in franchise history. That said, in both ’81, much like the ’09, ’10 and ’11 Phillies teams, there were playoffs but nothing further. In ’82, the team didn’t even sniff the postseason, much like the 2012 Phillies, who missed out on winning an NL wildcard.

Besides a lack of playoff success, yet another similarity between both teams is age. The ’83 team, whose average age topped out at over 32 (slightly older than the 2013 Phillies at 30 plus), was named the “Wheeze Kids.” It was a team that consisted of an aging Mike Schmidt and a Pete Rose, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez reunited, yet all in the twilight of their careers. Not much was expected, but much was received.

That ’83 Phillies team pulled off a minor miracle, doing something that the 2013 Phillies team hopes to repeat. They made it to the World Series, and although, they were easily ousted by the Baltimore Orioles, they really did prove that age is just a number.

So in the spirit of that team’s 30th anniversary and the similarities between the two squads, let’s take a look at how the players compare position by position.

The window may be basically closed shut, but if history means anything (and in baseball it often means everything), then the 2013 Phillies should not be counted out.

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Is Ruben Amaro Jr. Optimistic or Delusional to Think 2013 Phillies Will Compete?

Have the Philadelphia Phillies made enough improvements to their roster to compete with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East? 

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. thinks so, according to comments he made to MLB.com’s Phillies beat reporter Todd Zolecki. 

“I think we have a good enough team to contend for the division, yes,” Amaro told Zolecki. “Absolutely. It’s up to the players to prove me right, I guess.”

To be fair to Amaro, what else is he supposed to say?

Look, everyone else sees what the Nats and Braves have done. We’re thinking of forfeiting the season. Atlanta traded for Justin Upton, and we signed Delmon Young. When that deal hit the news, I hid under my desk and cried for six hours. Contend? Yeah, right! 

With those remarks, however, Amaro comes off a bit like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, trying to keep a frenzied crowd under control. “Remain calm!” he yells. “All is well!” 

But will Amaro eventually be stampeded by Phillies fans who expect much more from a team that won five straight division titles from 2007 to 2011 and contended for most of the past 12 seasons?

The Nationals compiled the best record in MLB last year at 98-64, finishing 17 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East. During the offseason, Nats GM Mike Rizzo added Dan Haren to the team’s starting rotation, traded for center fielder Denard Span and signed free-agent closer Rafael Soriano. 

As mentioned above, the Braves acquired Justin Upton, a player one season removed from an MVP-caliber season of 31 home runs, 88 RBI, 39 doubles and 21 stolen bases. Prior to that, Atlanta signed B.J. Upton to be their center fielder and added Jordan Walden to an already outstanding bullpen. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies also got a center fielder, trading for Ben Revere. That fulfilled Amaro‘s primary offseason objective. Michael Young was acquired to fill the hole at third base. Philadelphia also signed Delmon Young to provide a right-handed power bat in the outfield. 

On the pitching side, Amaro signed one of MLB’s best setup relievers in Mike Adams. John Lannan was added to the back end of the starting rotation. Reliever Chad Durbin and Yuniesky Betancourt were also signed for roster depth. 

Yet, those additions aren’t joining a squad full of replacement-level players.

The Phillies still have the best trio of starting pitchers atop their rotation with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

Philadelphia should also have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back at full health after both players missed significant time with injuries last season. And after he returns from a 25-game suspension, Carlos Ruiz gives the Phillies one of the best catchers in MLB. 

However, are the Phillies better than the team that finished 81-81 last season?

Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino are gone. Vance Worley is no longer in the starting rotation. Though Ruiz’s suspension accounts for only 15 percent of the season, that could limit him to approximately 100 games in 2013. 

It should be noted that after looking like a potential last-place team early in the season, the Phillies played far better in the second half. The team played itself into the NL wild-card playoff race by going 44-31.

But nearly all of the additions Amaro made to the Phillies roster have rather significant question marks going into the upcoming season. 

Revere will be a stolen-base threat at the top of the batting order. But his OPS was only .675 last season. His .333 on-base percentage would have ranked fifth among the Phillies’ regular starters. He also mostly batted in the No. 2 spot for the Minnesota Twins last year. 

Michael Young is coming off the worst season of his career at age 36. He batted .277 with a .682 OPS, nine home runs and 67 RBI.

Young was also mostly a designated hitter last year, playing just 25 games at third base. When he was in the field, he allowed five runs more than the average third baseman, according to FanGraphs‘ ultimate zone rating (UZR).

Delmon Young hit .267 with a .707 OPS, 18 home runs and 74 RBI last season. He was more impressive during the playoffs, batting .313 with a .907 OPS, three homers and nine RBI. The Phillies wanted a right-handed bat and Young hits left-handed pitching well, compiling a .308 average, .833 OPS, seven homers and 26 RBI versus southpaws last year.

The big concern with Young, however, is that the Phillies apparently intend to make him their starting right fielder. He hasn’t played that position since 2007 with the Tampa Bay Rays. But since then, he’s been a left fielder and designated hitter. 

FanGraphs‘ UZR measured Young as a good defensive right fielder, saving eight runs more than an average player during the two seasons he played the position. But we’re only talking about 133 games to judge. Young will also be recovering from microfracture surgery on his ankle, which could prevent him from opening the season on the Phillies’ active roster. 

Comparing the Phillies to the Nationals and Braves—especially taking each team’s offseason moves into consideration—doesn’t look very favorable. For Amaro to say he expects his team to compete with two clubs that could be the best in the NL seems optimistic at best. 

However, Philadelphia could influence who does eventually win the NL East or a wild-card playoff spot. The Phillies won’t be a pushover for the Nats or Braves in the division.

But for Amaro to think his team can ultimately be anything more than a spoiler by the end of the upcoming season might be borderline delusional. This just doesn’t look like their year. 

 

Follow @iancass on Twitter

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Scouting Report on Each Phillies Pitcher, Catcher Heading into Spring Training

It seems not so long ago that the Philadelphia Phillies were defending their National League East title with the “Four Aces” serving as the keystone of the team.

But while Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee continue to be widely recognized as aces, Roy Oswalt is long gone and Roy Halladay may or may not still have the stuff to lead a rotation.

Given the Phillies’ ongoing concerns on offense—the Delmon Young signing was not indicative of great confidence in the power department—it is apparent that unless the team pitches and catches it well in 2013, drastic roster changes are likely.

As with so much Phillies news these days, the team’s forecast for pitchers and catchers is varied.

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Profiles on Phillies’ Non-Roster and Under-the-Radar Players in Spring Training

After five straight division titles that produced two trips to the World Series and one parade, the Philadelphia Phillies are coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory—a lackluster third place finish, nestled in behind a pair of division rivals with young rosters.

And also, there is the realization that the following few seasons will be an uphill battle, regardless of the overall age of the Phillies’ roster. 

The fact of the matter here is that the Phillies aren’t getting any younger. Their window to compete for another championship may not be “closing” per se, but with the core of this roster quickly deteriorating, it certainly is not as wide open as it has been in years past. 

That’s why, in this spring more than any other in recent memory, the Phillies may have to rely on a few unlikely names. Each spring, teams invite “non-roster players”—or players not on the 40-man roster—to MLB camp to participate in spring training.

This way, they can get a look at their minor league depth and give players a chance to win a position battle. 

Those players are going to be important for the Phillies this season. They are in older team who needs to create depth in certain areas of the club. In this slideshow, I will give profiles on all of the Phillies’ non-roster invitees as well as a few “under-the-radar” players who can help the club in 2013.

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Latest News on Every Injured Philadelphia Phillies Player

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies and “injuries” were mentioned all too often in the same sentence.

Throughout the year, more than half of the Phillies’ 25-man roster spent time on the disabled list.  A total of 285 games were missed just by players who would have been Opening Day starters, if healthy, due to time on the DL.

But what about this season?

The Phillies’ lack of major spending this offseason could be a result of the question marks surrounding the health of key players currently on the roster.  Few free agents would have made a significant difference, even with players such as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard on the disabled list.

However, with an injury-free lineup and a healthy Roy Halladay in the starting rotation, the Phillies’ offseason moves could make for ideal complementary pieces.

With key players nearing free agency, having a healthy 2013 is now even more important for both the individual player, and the team.

The offseason is taking its final turn towards the start of spring training, so let’s take a look at the latest news on every injured Phillies player.

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25 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies in Spring Training

It wasn’t easy, and it certainly didn’t go according to plan, but the Philadelphia Phillies somehow managed to cross off all of the items on their offseason shopping list before spring training arrived, adding a center fielder, third baseman, starting pitcher, setup man and corner outfielder. 

Now as January rolls into its final weeks and the month of February rounds into focus, it’s time to dust off the good old crystal ball and offer up some bold predictions for this Phillies club during spring training—and it is going to be an eventful one. 

The Phillies will have all of the good storylines this spring. Players returning from injury like Roy Halladay and Chase Utley will be a big focus. How about players competing for jobs, like the trio of Darin Ruf, Domonic Brown and Delmon Young? Then there is always the favorite question—what can the new guys offer? 

Yes, it is certainly going to be an eventful spring for this Phillies club eager to climb back to the top of the division, but why wait? Here are 25 bold predictions for spring training in Clearwater, Florida. 

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Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox Share Alarming Similarities, Shortcomings

The Philadelphia Phillies share many characteristics with the Boston Red Sox entering 2013. That is not a compliment.

The Red Sox won the World Series in 2007; the Phillies did so in 2008. In those years, the two franchises were widely admired for their organizational savvy and the game toughness of their star players.

But Pat Gillick and Theo Epstein are long gone. So are Manny Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino, among others.

Now, in 2013, both franchises are cautionary tales for what happens when you spend too much money in the wrong places, as well as how quickly the franchises competing with you can flip the script.

For the Phillies, the outsized contracts given to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay have all become unsound investments with the passage of time.

The Red Sox know the feeling, carrying John Lackey at $16 million for 2013 and only by a huge stroke of luck having rid themselves of the albatross contracts they gave Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett toward the end of the 2012 season.

But dumping those three players did not solve all of the Red Sox’s problems, and the issues the Red Sox carry into the season mirror those of the Phillies in a number of areas.

Both teams currently have premium power positions manned by major question marks.

The Phillies recently signed Delmon Young to alleviate their power shortfall in the outfield, but they still project to start the season with Darin Ruf (37 major league at-bats) or John Mayberry Jr. (.254 career batting average) starting in left field.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox as presently constituted do not have a major league first baseman on the roster. They did recently sign Mike Napoli to a one-year contract, but he has never played more than 70 games at first base and was recently diagnosed with avascular necrosis in his hips, per boston.com.

Elsewhere on the diamond, the Red Sox are looking for a resurgence from former All-Star Jacoby Ellsbury (74 games played in 2012) the way the Phillies are hoping against hope that Howard (71 games played in 2012) and Utley (83 games played in 2012) can resemble their formerly dominant selves.

Both starting rotations come back with comparable concerns. In Jon Lester and Cliff Lee, the Red Sox and Phillies respectively have healthy aces returning from subpar and sub-.500 seasons. In Lackey and Halladay, the Red Sox and Phillies respectively have wounded aces returning with much to prove but perhaps too few bullets left.

Above all, the Phillies and the Red Sox share the ultimate discomforting similarity: a view from beneath the best teams in their division.

The Red Sox finished dead last in the American League East in 2012; they were the proverbial “sucker at the table.” And it does not project to get much easier as the New York Yankees, Tampa Rays and Baltimore Orioles are coming off 90+ win seasons and the division’s fourth-place team (the Toronto Blue Jays) just added Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and R.A. Dickey.

The Phillies were marginally better at third place in the National League East in 2012, but their incredible climb back to the top might actually be harder than the one the Red Sox face.

At least the Red Sox can count on the division’s best teams serially beating up on one another and perhaps deflating the number of wins they will need to contend for a playoff spot.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are the middle team of a five-team division with two great teams (Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves) and two bad teams (New York Mets, the about-to-be-historically-bad Miami Marlins.) The Nationals will have a full season of Stephen Strasburg to go with the addition of Dan Haren; the Braves will have full seasons of B.J. and Justin Upton, per the New York Times.

With the Nationals and the Braves liberally feeding on the bottom of the division and taking their shares of their series with the Phillies, it will be all the Phillies can do to find enough wins to pull either Washington or Atlanta back.

So the Red Sox and Phillies, second and third in 2012 payroll respectively, enter 2013 with more debits than credits both in the books and on the diamond.

Both teams will need handfuls of things to break right for them to have any realistic chance of contending in 2013.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Ranking the 5 Most Underrated Prospects in the Phillies’ Farm System

When composing my list of the top 10 prospects in the Philadelphia Phillies’ farm system, I was surprised by the lack of projectable players beyond the organization’s big names, namely Jesse Biddle. Although they do house numerous under-the-radar, high-ceiling prospects throughout their system, such as Roman Quinn and Maikel Franco, only a select few project favorably in the major leagues.

In selecting players for this article, I looked for prospects that are behind the developmental curve relative to their age, have a concerning medical history, lack significant experience in the minor leagues or are simply under-appreciated.

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