Who Will Emerge as the Philadelphia Phillies’ Key Outfielders in 2013?

Upgrading the outfield has been the main objective for Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. this offseason. However, that project hasn’t been entirely completed yet.

Amaro placed a priority on getting a center fielder, and he accomplished that goal by acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May.

But the Phillies still have question marks in their corner outfield spots.

Will 2013 be the year that Domonic Brown finally emerges as a productive major league outfielder? He hit .235 with a .712 OPS in 56 games with Philadelphia last season, and at 25 years old, this could be the proverbial make-or-break season for him.

According to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury, the Phillies want to give Darin Ruf a shot at winning the job in left field.

Ruf had a tremendous 2012 season with Double-A Reading, hitting .317 with a 1.028 OPS, 38 home runs and 104 RBI. In 37 plate appearances in the majors, he batted .333 with a 1.079 OPS, three homers and 10 RBI.

Yet is it too much to expect a player to make the jump from Double-A to the majors in one season? Despite Ruf‘s success in Reading, would he ultimately benefit from more plate appearances in Triple-A Lehigh Valley to begin the year? 

Amaro likely can’t afford to bring in new players at all three outfield positions, so someone from within the organization will have to provide some production—at least early in the season. Based on Salisbury’s report, it appears that Ruf will be that player. 

Obviously, that still leaves right field to be filled.  

Even if Brown gets an opportunity there, will the Phillies add a right-handed hitter to platoon with him? For that matter, could Brown platoon with Ruf in left field?

As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes in a mailbag column, the best candidate if Amaro were decide to go the free agent route would be Scott Hairston

Hairston hit 20 home runs with 87 RBI in 398 plate appearances for the New York Mets last season. More importantly for the Phillies’ purposes, he batted .286 with an .867 OPS against left-handed pitching. 

However, Hairston is surely seeking a significant raise over the $1.1 million that he made last season after his success with the Mets. That might put him out of the Phillies’ range.

The remaining right-handed bats on the free agent market are the likes of Juan Rivera, Ryan Raburn and Delmon Young. In that case, Amaro is better off just pairing John Mayberry, Jr. with Brown in right field.

Regardless, it seems to be apparent that the Phillies will have to bring in outside help for that position. Unfortunately, the Josh Hamiltons and Nick Swishers of the world have signed elsewhere. So in order to get the “difference-maker” that Amaro seeks, he’ll need to make a trade. 

The first name that will surely be mentioned is Justin Upton, whom the Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly putting back on the trade block, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi. 

Upton would be an impact player in right field for the Phillies, capable of 30 home runs, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases. In other words, he could provide Philadelphia with MVP-caliber production—exactly what Amaro is looking for from his outfield. 

But what would the Phillies have to trade to get Upton from the D-Backs?

Could Amaro come up with a package of starting pitching and perhaps even include one of the organization’s young catchers, such as Sebastian Valle, that would interest Arizona GM Kevin Towers? Third-base prospect Cody Asche might be a player Towers would like as well. 

Another potential trade target could be Andre Ethier, though he wouldn’t be the right-handed bat that the Phillies likely prefer. Ethier would also be expensive, as he is beginning a five-year, $85 million contract this season and Amaro has concerns about staying under the $178 million luxury tax threshold for this year. 

However, the Los Angeles Dodgers are presumably more interested in dumping Ethier‘s contract—perhaps to clear room for signing Michael Bourn—than receiving top prospects in return. That might help Amaro in terms of putting together a potential trade package. 

The same circumstances would likely apply to the Chicago Cubs‘ Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells of the Los Angeles Angels.

The Cubs would probably want more for Soriano, since he hit 32 homers with 108 RBI last season. If they have to eat a big chunk of the $36 million remaining on Soriano’s contract, the Cubs will surely ask for better prospects in return. 

For the Angels, Wells would be a straight salary dump. He’s still owed $42 million, but he isn’t coming off a productive season like Soriano is. However, the Phillies would likely have to either trade top prospects to get the Angels to cover most of that money or they would have to add that ridiculous salary to their payroll. 

The guess here is that Amaro will make a play for Upton if he feels the Phillies still need to add an impact outfielder.

Upton is the best player available with the most upside. He is also the most affordable in terms of salary, slotted to make $38.5 million over the next three years. Though Amaro would have to pay a heavy price in a trade for him, the Phillies would get far more from Upton than the other veteran outfielders that are available. 

Philadelphia could go into the upcoming season with an outfield of Ruf, Revere and Brown, but that would be a tough sell to fans, and it’s difficult to believe that trio would help the Phillies compete in the NL East with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. 

 

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4 Wishes for Charlie Manuel and the Philadelphia Phillies in 2013

Christmas may be over, but it’s never too late to start compiling a list of things you’d like in 2013.  My list includes some changes I’d like to see Charlie Manuel make this year for the Phillies.

Manuel is facing a unique situation in his ninth season as manager.  When Charlie first became skipper of the club in 2005, he had a boatload of young, talented players who were just coming into their potential.  Now, however, he is in the exact opposite situation.  While talented, the Phillies are an aging, past-their-prime team that has maybe a year or two left to really compete. 

This team will require Manuel to make some changes, something he has been reluctant to do in the past.

Here is a list of four things I would like to see the Phillies’ skipper do differently in the New Year.

*All statistics and figures taken from baseball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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2013 End-Year Stat Projections for Every Phillie If They Make No Impact Moves

It may not have gone as planned, but the Philadelphia Phillies spent the offseason addressing most of their major concerns. They overhauled the coaching staff and added several key roster pieces, including Ben Revere, Mike Adams, Michael Young and John Lannan. 

With a corner outfield that represents an obvious upgrade over what the Phillies already have in-house proving to be elusive, the roster that you see today is likely to be what the Phils march out on Opening Day. 

So, now that most of the questions about who will make up the 2013 Phillies have been addressed, it’s time to take a look at whether this club is going to be able to keep pace with the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

This list, which will attempt to be as accurate as possible in projecting statistics, is not going to be a wish list of unreachable plateaus for members of this roster. If a bold number is thrown up there, it will be with indication and good reason. 

So without any further ado, here are the numbers you can expect out of this Phillies club, assuming they don’t make any major moves through the rest of the offseason.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Biggest Winners and Losers of the Offseason So Far

While the MLB offseason may still be in media res, it looks as though the Philadelphia Phillies‘ offseason is winding down. They acquired a center fielder in Ben Revere, a third baseman in Michael Young, and signed a veteran set-up man in Mike Adams and a fifth starter in John Lannan.

Aside from picking up Mauricio Robles off waivers from the Seattle Mariners and signing catcher Humberto Quintero to a minor-league contract, the Phillies’ offseason consists solely of the aforementioned moves without any big-name free agent signings. Considering that the Phillies’ past three offseasons have each consisted of a major move in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon, the lack of a marquee move comes as a bit of surprise.

Nevertheless, as a result of these moves, some players have gained the edge for roster consideration that they may not have otherwise had. Conversely, other players now stand at a disadvantage following the Phillies’ offseason moves. And though the offseason is far from over—there’s still just over a month until the start of spring training—the implications of the Phillies’ moves are pretty clear.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at the winners and losers of the Phillies’ offseason so far.

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Contingency Plans for the Phillies If Roy Halladay Never Returns to Dominance

Regardless of the additions general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made to the Philadelphia Phillies roster during the offseason, starting pitching was going to be the strength of the team in 2013.

With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels topping the rotation, Philadelphia has a chance of competing for an NL East title and wild-card playoff spot. But Amaro had to make the necessary improvements on offense to make sure his team’s strong pitching wouldn’t be wasted.

However, that’s presuming that Halladay, Lee and Hamels are all healthy. In 2012, rumors and concerns over injuries followed Halladay throughout spring training as he showed diminished velocity. In June, Halladay went on the disabled list with a strained shoulder and eventually missed nearly eight weeks of the season. 

Though Halladay made 14 starts after returning from the DL, there is understandably some concern as to whether or not he can make it through a full season healthy again. He’s 35 years old with nearly 2,700 innings on his odometer. 

In his latest mailbag column for MLB.com, Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki was asked about Halladay’s health and what sort of offseason conditioning he was working through to prevent a repeat of 2012. 

According to Amaro, Halladay’s offseason is going according to plan and he’ll begin throwing off a mound in the very near future. However, there was one part of Amaro‘s remarks that might seem a bit cryptic to Phillies fans. 

“He’s doing well,” said Amaro, “but we don’t know what kind of Doc we’re going to get until Doc’s down firing in Spring Training. But he’s feeling pretty good so far.”

To be fair, that’s probably the most honest answer Amaro could give.

If he said Halladay looks great and was popping catchers’ mitts in Clearwater, Fla., while the right-hander was really trying to build strength in his shoulder and didn’t have his full velocity yet, fans, reporters and analysts would hit the panic button and Amaro would look foolish.

Halladay would also surely be upset that reports of his progress were misleading and Amaro didn’t manage expectations properly. 

Instead, Amaro said everything was proceeding as planned. But until Halladay starts throwing to catchers off a mound and faces live competition, it’s impossible to say that his shoulder looks stronger than it was last year and that he should be fine for next season.

However, the words “we don’t know what kind of Doc we’re going to get” does leave an opening for some doubt to creep in.

What if Halladay won’t be the pitcher we’re accustomed to seeing, the ace who won 40 games in his first two seasons with the Phillies? Is he capable of pitching more than 240 innings and averaging 220 strikeouts again? 

According to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Philadelphia was ready to talk about a contract extension before Halladay was injured. Those plans have probably been ditched. 

Obviously, the Phillies are hoping Halladay will be able to earn his $20 million salary for 2013 and pitch well enough for the team to pick up his option for 2014 (also worth $20 million). If age and workload have finally caught up with him, however, devising a contingency plan might be in order for Amaro and manager Charlie Manuel. 

Fortunately, the Phillies have two other ace-level starters ready to take over the No. 1 spot in the rotation if Halladay suffers any setbacks. 

Though Lee compiled a 6-9 record last season, he finished among the National League’s top 10 starters with a 3.16 ERA. His 207 strikeouts and 1.11 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) both ranked in the league’s top five. 

Hamels’ 17 wins were the fifth-highest total in the NL. His 216 strikeouts ranked third among the league’s starting pitchers, while his 1.12 WHIP was right behind Lee. Opposing batters hit .237 against Hamels, one of the 10 best marks in the NL. 

Both pitchers exceeded 200 innings for the season, the sort of workload expected from a top-of-the-rotation starter. 

Losing Halladay would affect the depth of the starting rotation, of course. With Vance Worley and Trevor May going to the Minnesota Twins in a trade for outfielder Ben Revere, there was already less to work with. 

Rather than three elite pitchers, the Phillies would have two. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan would fill the next two spots, leaving the fifth starter a question mark. Tyler Cloyd, who made six starts last season, would probably be the favorite for that role.

Jesse Biddle is the Phillies’ top prospect, according to Baseball America. But he pitched in Single-A last season and is realistically at least another year from appearing in the major leagues. 

Jonathan Pettibone could be a possibility to join the Phillies rotation in 2013. He finished last year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and looked impressive in his seven starts. Overall, Pettibone went 13-8 with a 3.10 ERA, striking out 113 batters in 159.2 innings. 

The Phillies and Amaro would probably have to go with what’s already on hand in Halladay’s absence. What’s available to trade might have to be used to fill the team’s opening in right field, unless Amaro and Manuel believe Domonic Brown is the answer at that position. The front office likely wants a better run producer there, however. 

Phillies fans are surely tired of hearing such rumors and speculation, but if Halladay can’t go, rumblings about the team trading Cliff Lee will start up again. While the left-hander would surely help the Phillies compete for a playoff spot and division title, he’s also Amaro‘s most tradeable asset.

Lee is the team’s best chance to fetch a blockbuster return and help the Phillies return to contention faster if their starting rotation can’t feature the three studs that were supposed to set them apart from the competition in 2013. But that might be a “Break glass in case of emergency” situation. 

If Halladay suffers from shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity again, however, it might be an emergency scenario at Citizens Bank Park. Under those circumstances, glass probably won’t be the only thing that Amaro breaks in his office this year. 

 

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Top Moments for Every Phillies Player Voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame

The 2013 Hall of Fame ballot is one that has been five years in the making and a hotbed of discussion, but still hit the voters, fans and other baseball folks like a ton of bricks, the elephant in the room being, “Do players who have been caught or accused of ‘cheating’ have a right to be inducted into the Hall of Fame?” 

Now, that’s a long discussion for a different day. When you sit and think back on some of these careers, however, it’s easy to make a case for their inclusion. No man in history has more home runs than Barry Bonds. Roger Clemens won the Cy Young Award seven different times. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. 

Luckily for the Phillies, this isn’t a debate that is going to rage in their inner circle. The Phillies haven’t had a player inducted into Cooperstown since Jim Bunning finally got the call in 1996, and probably won’t see another one any time soon. 

But it does get one to thinking, what was the greatest moment of each member of the Phillies in the Hall of Fame? This slideshow will take a look back at the careers of some of baseball’s all-time greats.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Missing Free-Agent Pieces Phils Could Still Land

At the MLB Free Agent Bar and Night Club, it is 1:50 a.m. The bartender rang the bell for last call 20 minutes ago, and the “ugly lights” just came up. For Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Philadelphia Phillies, there is still time to leave with someone…but the clock is ticking.

Most of the really prime targets have gone home with someone else.

Josh Hamilton took generational money to hit behind (or ahead of) Albert Pujols in Los Angeles. B.J. Upton got five years and $75 million from the Atlanta Braves to try to beat the Phillies 19 times a year. Nick Swisher is apparently content to play the rest of his career out of contention in Cleveland.

Zack Greinke got a contract from the loose-walleted Los Angeles Dodgers that beat even Cole Hamels’ epic free-agent deal. Anibal Sanchez somehow pried $80 million from the Detroit Tigers even though his career record is 48-51.

The big names, per this very handy cbssports.com free-agent tracker, have for the most part settled on partners.

So who’s left?

Michael Bourn is the biggest name unsigned, but he does not figure to fit in the Phillies’ plans after they traded for Ben Revere. Bourn and Revere in the same lineup would never work, as neither one hits for power.

The name the Phillies need to look at again is Delmon Young.

Young hit .267 with 18 home runs and 74 runs batted in for the Detroit Tigers in 2012. Young is a right-handed hitter; he is only 27 years old, and he’s coming off ankle surgery. He could be signed for short years and/or short money.

For weeks, Phillies fans were hearing that the Phillies were interested in signing right-handed outfielder Cody Ross, who instead went to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Here is the thing, though—Young might actually be a better player. Ross’ 2012 slash line of .267/22/81 is not much different from Young’s 2012 slash line of .267/18/74. And Ross is four years older.

The knock on Young is that he supposedly cannot play left field (or perhaps any position) adequately, and thus he is best suited for the American League.

But the 2008 Phillies won the World Series with a decomposing Pat Burrell chipping home runs into the short porch in left field. The 1993 Phillies won a pennant with Pete Incaviglia staggering around the AstroTurf at Veterans’ Stadium. Neither of them could catch a cold. It didn’t matter, because they hit.

Young could do something very similar for the Phillies in 2013.

The Phillies could also use one more starting pitcher. Everyone loves Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but that leaves nearly 70 starts for the likes of Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan to cover.

Wouldn’t Shaun Marcum or Joe Saunders fit neatly in that No. 4 slot in the rotation?

And since Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Matt Capps and Kyle Farnsworth are all still unsigned, it appears that the market for their specific services (late-inning pitchers with experience closing games) is glutted. The Phillies could definitely afford one of them on a one-year or even a two-year deal.

If the Phillies are really serious about winning in 2013, another wave of free-agent signings even this late in the process is in order.

Leaving the scene alone as the barkeep locks the door should not be an option.

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Philadelphia Phillies: The Interesting Case of John Mayberry Jr.

I have been a fan of John Mayberry Jr. since being brought back up from the AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs in the summer of 2011. 

I was pushing for him to become an everyday starter for the 2012 season.  He should a great deal of promise and potential in late 2011.

From July through September of 2011, Mayberry hit .301 with 12 homeruns and 37 RBI.  If he could maintain that production over the course of a season, he may have been one of the most cost-effective producers on the team for the 2012 season.

There was speculation as to whether or not he could be an everyday starter come spring training.  During the course of spring training, he suffered dismally at the plate, but Charlie Manuel still penciled him in for left field and first base as an everyday starter.

Mayberry was in a peculiar position when the season started, because the Phillies did not have an everyday first baseman with Ryan Howard on the disabled list for an undefined period of time. 

The Phillies would use a number of different options between first base and left field, having Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Ty Wiggington and even Jim Thome trying their hands at first base.  Left field was also seeing a few players circulate it, including Mayberry, Juan Pierre, Nix, Hector Luna and even Wigginton.

With the Phillies offense suffering approaching the trade deadline, the Phillies decided to deal a few players to help prepare for the following season. This allowed some of the young players to try to prove themselves able to play every day. 

With Howard and Chase Utley back in the lineup, the offense was somewhat more stable.

The team saw many young and still undefined players try to earn their way into guaranteed starting positions. 

With Shane Victorino having been dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Mayberry became the starter in center field for the bulk of the end of the season.  Mayberry proved himself to be a better player during the summer than he was during the spring again.

That brings up the question as to whether he is a warm-weather hitter or if he is better with consistent play. 

For some time, I thought he was proving himself to be a warm weather hitter, a statement that would be supported by looking at his numbers for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

In 2011 before the all star break he hit .244 with a .326 on-base percentage, a .439 slugging and a .765 OPS.  For the same season after the all star break he hit .299 with a .354 OBP, .576 SLG and .930 OPS.

In the 2012 season before the All Star break he hit for .232 with a .269 OBP, .377 SLG and .646 OPS.  After the all star break he hit .256 with a .327 OBP, .410 SLG and .737 OPS.

During both of these seasons, the only two seasons where he has had a fair major league sampling, he has received substantially more play time after the All Star break. 

So what do these numbers prove? 

What has been answered after he spent the entire year in the majors for the first time and got several opportunities to prove himself?

We cannot be sure if he can be an everyday starter. 

He certainly has a history of performing better when he is playing every day, but he also has a history of being a very streaky hitter.  We cannot say that he is just a warm weather hitter, because he hit above average during the month of May in 2012 but was in the basement in April and June.

Judging him by his numbers, he hit .245 with 14 homeruns and 46 RBI across the entire season, which is slightly lower than the .263, 20 homerun, 57 RBI season that Scott Hairston had, a player with whom the Phillies have been linked this offseason.

Mayberry did hit better with a guarantee to play every day, there is no question about that. 

Of course, there is a correlation to this and the return of both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to the lineup.  Perhaps the lessening of the pressure on him about playing every day and being one of the key producers helped him to feel more comfortable and perform better overall.

One thing is for sure: 2013 will be different than 2012. 

Mayberry is a solid defensive player, particularly in the corner outfield positions, and, as of right now, there are no guarantees for either corner outfield position.  Mayberry is in an interesting position because he may have a second season to try to prove himself, and maybe this time he will live up to the expectations that were once placed upon him.

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Philadelphia Phillies: New Year’s Resolutions That Ruben Amaro Must Make in 2013

3…2…1… HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Okay, so maybe the calendar hasn’t technically turned the page from December to January, but it is never too early to think ahead. In fact, in sports, thinking ahead is how you get ahead.

Going one step further, if Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro had thought ahead and not traded so much of the future for the present, then maybe, just maybe, the 2012 offseason would have told a different story.

Not to indulge in thoughts of what could have been, because that is not what ringing in the new year is supposed to be all about. Instead, it is about looking back on the previous year, not in terms of what could have been or what should be, but rather about how to fix the mistakes, let’s face it, we all inevitably make.

For Amaro, 2013 is a chance to do exactly that.

Anyone around the team—fans, players, coaches, media—they would all tell the story of the same thing. 2012 was a disappointment. It was not the way things were supposed to go. The expectations, albeit always high, just fell short.

So, it is a new year, new beginning and new chance for this team to figure out a way to get back to the ultimate baseball glory. It all starts when the clock strikes midnight on 2012. It will be a chance for Amaro to ring in the new year with a few resolutions of his own.

While a fellow writer here at Bleacher Report, has already written an excellent piece about resolutions that the players need to make, I’m going to focus on resolutions that the GM would be advised to make. Considering how things have gone in the past few years, these resolutions could be a deciding factor when it comes to next season and beyond.

 

Don’t Be Afraid to Fire Charlie Manuel And Promote Ryne Sandberg if Things Go Bad

By now, most Phillies fans are probably familiar with the fact that the organization has the successor to current manager Charlie Manuel waiting in the wings. Considering that the team formerly traded said successor when he was in their minors before watching him go on to become a Hall of Fame second baseman with the Chicago Cubs, my bet is this team doesn’t want to lose him again.

Sure, there is no guarantee that Ryne Sandberg will be a good major league manager, but that doesn’t mean the Phils are going to let him walk away so they can learn the hard way just how good he is.

Sandberg, who in just one season led the Phils Triple-A affiliate Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs to their first ever playoff appearance, earned minor league manager of the year in 2011. Following the 2012 season he was promoted as the Phillies third base coach and infield instructor. Considering that Manuel has just one year left on his contract, it is without a doubt that Sandberg is being groomed to take over.

There is no guarantee he will still be around if the Phils wait too long. In the 2012 offseason he already interviewed for a few managerial jobs and if managers are fired during the course of the year, his name might pop up once again. For that reason, Amaro has to resolve to do what needs to be done and promote Sandberg if and when the time comes.

 

Avoid Another Fire Sale

There is nothing more disheartening to a team, especially a team just five years removed from winning the World Series, than watching an annual playoff contender become a “seller” at the trade deadline. At the time Amaro wrote it off, concluding that the team wasn’t necessarily selling but rather rebuilding. The only problem with that, however, is that if this team blunders again this year, there will be no denying why the team enters the selling market.

Amaro, as well as his predecessor Pat Gillick, did well to bring this team a core of talent. Unfortunately, this core has aged and this talent has become disposable. Last year, Amaro heard offers for some of the organization’s top players, including Cliff Lee, who it seems is a surprise member of the team considering the desire to trade the lefty.

Other possible trade pieces at this point include Domonic Brown, whose name is always popping up, Darin Ruf, whose breakout minor league season could make him attractive to some teams, and then of course, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and maybe even Ben Revere.

Although some of these guys are likely to be gone after next season anyway, the team has to avoid another deflating fire sale. Otherwise, the Phils could go back into mediocrity that might take years to climb out of.

 

Inquire About Giancarlo Stanton But Don’t Be Stupid or Hasty To Make A Trade

Amaro may have started this resolution early, but if he has not the least this GM could do is find out the hypothetical ballpark number needed to land Giancarlo Stanton. The outfielder is by far the best player on the trading block.

Plain and simple, if the Miami Marlins have an interest in anything the team has to offer, Amaro should at least listen. The return has to justify what the Phils would give up and that is where the second half of this resolution comes into play.

Stanton is an incredibly attractive talent. At just 23 and in parts of just three seasons, Stanton already has 93 home runs, including a career high 37 last year. Did I mention he is just 23? Most of the Phillies top prospects are already over 23 and haven’t shown even a fraction of that kind of production and potential.

So yes, Amaro should put together a package and make an offer. At the same time, Stanton is just one player. Sure he is a phenomenal one, but he can’t be a catcher, pitch or play the infield. Considering the fact that the players the Phillies currently have catching, pitching and playing the infield won’t be around forever, it would be wise to consider this before going all in on Stanton. 

 

Win Another World Series … Or At Least Make the Playoffs

 Okay so maybe this is a no-brainer.

Every coach and general manager should resolve to take their team to the playoffs and to go even further, win the championship. Ultimately, this is their job and as former Philadelphia coach Andy Reid learned this year, resolving to do a “better job” and not winning the title is not good enough. If the same trends continue with the Phillies, Amaro might find himself resigned to that same fate.

Winning the World Series, however, should save his job regardless of whether he is currently in danger of losing it or not. Making the playoffs, well it would certainly bring fans, and the city, back some hope after one of the most devastating sport seasons in recent memory.

Plus, you don’t resolve for mediocrity. You resolve for the pinnacle of greatness. For this reason, Amaro should be among the majority resolving to somehow, someway bring this team back to championship glory. 

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Should the Philadelphia Phillies Trade Their Starting Pitchers Before They Age?

In an offseason where the Philadelphia Phillies have had to focus on filling several holes after a disappointing regular season, there have been many rumors and transactions proposed to the Phillies by teams seeking one of their aces. 

Before the July 31 trade deadline, Cole Hamels was one such target by teams seeking to improve their pitching staff.  The Texas Rangers were rumored to be in on a trade that would send Hamels to Arlington.  The same rumors circulated involving sending Cliff Lee back to Arlington.

After the trade deadline had passed, the Los Angeles Dodgers had claimed Lee off of waivers before the Phillies had removed him from the trade waivers.  The Phillies are largely built around their strong pitching staff.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. had said that trading Lee would be a bad move after having given Hamels the lucrative extension on July 25.  Amaro has built a team around having a strong pitching rotation, and dealing one of the three aces would be counterproductive.

That has not stopped teams from approaching the Phillies about a possible trade for Lee, however.  During the offseason, the Phillies have needed to fill a hole at third base, the back end of the bullpen and essentially all outfield positions, particularly center field.  The Phillies essentially could have filled all three outfield positions this offseason, which did not guarantee players for any of those positions.

The Phillies did acquire Ben Revere in early December, filling their hole at center field, but creating a hole in the pitching rotation, as the trade cost the Phillies pitcher Vance Worley.  The Phillies also traded for Michael Young, who will fill the team’s need at third base.  Shortly before Christmas, the team also signed relief pitcher Mike Adams to fill the hole in the bullpen and John Lannan to fill the hole that Worley left.

Throughout the offseason, there have been rumors of teams offering deals for Lee that would certainly fill a need for the Phillies in the outfield.  One such trade was from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who proposed a trade sending right fielder Justin Upton to Philadelphia and Lee to Arizona. 

The Phillies are lacking right-handed power hitters and a guaranteed right fielder.  The team is also lacking young players, and Upton, at 25 years old, would fill all of those needs.  The Phillies did not bite on that deal, however, even though they would love to acquire Upton, just not for Lee.

The Boston Red Sox likewise offered a deal for Lee that would send Jacoby Ellsbury to Philadelphia.  That would also fill the same needs for Philadelphia, excepting that Ellsbury is a left-handed hitter.  That deal, too, was never one the Phillies seriously considered.

In the recent years, the run-scoring ability of the Phillies has lessened.  The runs scored each season by the Phillies have gone down since the 2009 season.  In 2009, the Phillies scored 820 runs.  That total was down to 684 runs with the 2012 season.  This also happened to be the same season where the Phillies pitching had suffered. 

Usually, teams who score less can still win ball games if they can keep the other team from scoring.  The Phillies had been able to do that, as their team has gradually been built around their rotation.  However, if the rotation is failing to do its job as effectively as it once did, that poses a serious question the team needs to face: Should the Phillies trade their pitchers while they still have value enough to bring a player or players back who can provide offense?

All of the deals that have been proposed seem to focus on Cliff Lee.  That is largely due to him having less years due on his contract than Hamels and being more of a guarantee than Roy Halladay after Halladay suffered his worst season since 2007.  Halladay is coming off of an injury-plagued season, and he will soon be 36 years old.  Many fear that we are seeing his decline after having a 2012 season where he went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA, 36 BB, 132 K and a 1.222 WHIP.

Halladay has apparently changed his offseason approach, which he claims will make the difference.  A lot of teams are probably fearful that he has started to decline or that his injuries will effect his 2013 season.  That may be why he is not the subject of much trade speculation. 

There are a few things to keep in mind about Halladay however.  He is a competitor, and he will do everything in his power to not only return to where he was in 2011, but go beyond that.  If there is anybody who believes that Roy Halladay is not on the decline, it is Halladay himself.  We should keep in mind that we are only one bad, injury-plagued season away from the best season in his career, where he went 19-6 with a 2.35 ERA, 35 BB, 220 K and a 1.04 WHIP and eight complete games.

Halladay did have a terrible 2012 season.  The injuries could be seen to have effected him even in the spring.  Some people noticed how many breaking balls he had thrown in the early season, which caused some concern for his shoulder before the injury was made apparent in late May.  Halladay at this point will not carry as much trade value as he once did, and probably still deserves, until he starts throwing in spring training. 

In 2012, we only saw one month where Halladay was pitching like the Halladay we all know and expect.  The Phillies remain optimistic about his return to his normal pitching ability, but ultimately, time will tell with that. 

Halladay did appear to be somewhat himself again in August, when he pitched to the tune of a 3.32 ERA and when hitters batted .238 against him.  One thing we should all keep in mind is that nobody works as hard as Halladay does.  He will be focused on returning to ace form this offseason.  The Phillies cannot afford for anything else with a team built pitchers, and Halladay would not allow himself to become a sub-par pitcher.

Despite coming off of the 2010 season where he threw a perfect game and a postseason no-hitter, Halladay’s 2011 season was perhaps the best of his career.  Halladay very well could have won the 2011 Cy Young award had Clayton Kershaw not had the pitching triple crown that year.  The 2011 pitching staff for the Phillies is the best pitching staff in all of baseball since 1990, but we will come back to that shortly.

Cliff Lee suffered a fate that was usually suffered by Cole Hamels, where he received no run support.  Lee was perhaps the unluckiest pitcher this year, having only had a 6-9 record with a 3.16 ERA, 28 BB, 207 K and a 1.114 WHIP.  Lee also suffered some from injuries after he took a shutout through 10 innings against the San Francisco Giants. 

His record this season does not do justice to how well he played.  Lee was basically lights-out through the month of September, where he posted a 1.05 ERA in six starts and allowed five earned runs and had 44 K in 43.1 innings pitched.  We should expect nothing less than that from Lee in the next season as well.

Cole Hamels was the ace of the staff in 2012 with a 17-6 record and a 3.05 ERA, 2 CG, 2 SHO, 52 BB, 216 K and a 1.124 WHIP.  This was the best season of Hamels’ career thus far.  He was also the recipient of an extension, keeping him in the peppermint pinstripes for many years to come.  Hamels was steady throughout the season, which says something, because he was perhaps the only player who was, other than Carlos Ruiz.

Overall, these three pitchers should not be going anywhere.  Amaro has built the team around these aces.  They collectively are only one year away from their 2011 season where they were the best team since 1990 in things that they can control.  This is referring to a specific statistic: FIP.  FIP measures things directly within the pitcher’s control, which are strikeouts, walks and home runs and removes the variables of the quality of defense and the luck of the batter. 

In the 2011 season, the Phillies had a 2.98 ERA, which is better than any other team in the time period of 1990-2011.  The closest team to them within that time period is the 1997 Atlanta Braves, who posted a 3.30 ERA in this category.

There are several factors as to why the Phillies were only 81-81 this season, and starting pitching is not the leading cause to why they finished the season this poorly.  During this season, the Phillies lost 13 games after the seventh inning, which was due to a poor and inconsistent bullpen.  The Phillies finished tied for last in the majors in that category this year. 

Even if the Phillies had been able to hold onto 10 of those 13 games, we may be talking about a different season where they ended up finishing 91-71 and making the playoffs.  The Phillies hope to have plugged that hole with Mike Adams, who has been one of the most consistent bullpen arms since 2007.

The Phillies also suffered from a lack of offense this year, with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard having missed substantial time due to injuries.  The Phillies did not have both of these players back until July, and Howard was never back to 100 percent during any point of the season.  The Phillies traded away two major offensive players this July, which allowed for the young players to step up and prove themselves.  The Phillies finished the season 36-24, which was the best in baseball.

The Phillies finished strong this year and have filled some glaring holes this offseason, particularly at third base and in the bullpen.  If the Phillies can hold onto more of their late leads and get more production out of third base and the now healthy Utley and Howard, they should have no reason to trade the players the team is built around. 

Michael Young will bring a great deal to the team, both as a leader and as a producer.  Young drove in more runs than anybody on the Phillies in 2012, except Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins.  2012 was an off year for Young, but even if he brings the same production that he did in 2012 or returns to the 106 RBI 2011 season he had, the Phillies stand in a much better position.

The Phillies do not need to trade their starting rotation pieces.  The Phillies do not have the players who are ready to step up and fill the starting pitching rotation.  The Phillies pitchers suffered a bit of a hiccup this year due to injuries and increased pressure.  The team was built around the strength of its rotation, and the rotation is still and will remain the strength of the team.  

The Phillies need their players return to their normal form, which they can do.  The Phillies need to be in a position where Jimmy Rollins does not have to be the leader in home runs and RBIs.  The pitchers need to focus on returning to their normal ability, and the core players need to focus on remaining injury free and producing runs. 

The pitchers had a lot of weight on their shoulders in 2012 while they were missing the major pieces of Utley and Howard and should be able to return to their 2011 form with the glaring holes now filled and the injuries now healed.

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