Roy Halladay and the Make-or-Break Players for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2013

On the whole, it’s been overstated that the Philadelphia Phillies had a sub-par 2012 season. The team’s record of 81-81 at season’s end was due to a number of factors, whether injury or performance-based. Missing Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay for significant portions of the year certainly didn’t help the Phillies’ cause, and while trading players such as Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino netted the Phillies some help for the future, it did not aid their team now.

Individually, some players shined exponentially, while others fell further down the ladder, if not completely off. Some players who were relied upon in seasons past just didn’t bring to the table what they were able to offer before. Seeing players such as Doc Halladay struggle due to injury and diminished velocity was a disappointing sight to behold, whereas Carlos Ruiz’s breakout year was all the better to witness until plantar fasciitis derailed his season and Adderall did the same for the first 25 games of 2013.

As is always the case with players from one season to the next, players who have something to prove—whether for on the field or contractual value—are evaluated as having “make-or-break” years. For the Phillies, five players stand out above the rest. Whether it’s a last chance with the team for the future or proving that a season ago was not a fluke, a myriad of reasons contribute to why certain players enter these make-or-break seasons.

In the meantime, here are the five Philadelphia Phillies with a ton riding on an upcoming make-or-break season for 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Predicting Roy Halladay’s Year-End Stats in 2013

A lot of things went wrong for the Philadelphia Phillies last year, not the least of which was the injury sustained by the ace of their staff, Roy Halladay.

Just two years removed from throwing a perfect game, no-hitter and winning the national league Cy Young, Halladay struggled to complete just 25 starts last year. He pitched a career-low 1.2 innings in his penultimate start and was consistently burned by giving up the long ball.

Unlike in the past two years, when Halladay got into trouble, he seemed unable to get out of it.

But that was last year.

Both Halladay and the Phillies no doubt expect 2013 to be different. The question, however, is just how different or how much better can both parties realistically expect Halladay to be? He is, after all, 35 years old and has logged an incredibly high 2,687.1 innings in his 14-year career. The man has always been a horse, but eventually, it has to be believed that this will catch up to him.

That said, Halladay has remained relatively healthy for the majority of his career and has definitely been one of the best pitchers in the game over the past 10 years.

He has won an average of 16.5 wins in the last 11 years and should be coming into this season, rehabbed and good to go. Much of what Halladay can and will do will be dependent on how he starts the season. Keeping that in mind, Phillies fans should be pretty optimistic about what I’m going to say next.

Last year was an abnormality, the exception and not the norm for Halladay.

He will rebound in 2013, he will start more than 25 games and he will be healthy for most if not all of the season. The wear and tear of 14 seasons and 2,000-plus innings may take its toll eventually, but I do not expect that to be next season.

Worst-case scenario, last year marked the beginning of Halladay’s decline and 2013 will be more of the same. Best-case scenario, Halladay wins 20-plus games and leads the Phillies back to the playoffs and on one last inspired championship run.

My best guess is that his stats will land somewhere in the middle.

 

Win-Loss Record (18-10) 

 It may seem like a bit of a bold prediction, but I am going off the thinking that Halladay will pitch in at least 32 games and will do so as healthy as he did in his first two seasons with the Phillies. If that is the case, then expecting the team’s ace to win 18 games really shouldn’t be that much of a stretch.

Last year, Halladay won just 11 and lost eight of his 25 starts. Since 2002, this win-loss record ranks second worst, besting just an 8-8 season in which Halladay pitched in just 21 games. Noted is that the following season, Halladay upped his win total to 12 and halved his loss total.

When healthy, Halladay is still one of the best pitchers in the game.

In fact, had he not gotten injured early in the season, I am not beyond saying that he gets in the neighborhood of 18-plus wins. If his April stats are to be extrapolated over the course of the season, Halladay would have been 18-12, and that includes a handful of quality starts in which the team just couldn’t score runs for him.

Not too shabby, if he had been healthy all season long.

But there is where the biggest question mark comes in. At 35, Halladay is no longer at his peak physical condition.

As I mentioned, he has logged over 2,000 innings and, in addition, has a tough and intense workout regimen he subjects himself to. All with the goal of pitching at his best, Halladay is the first to point out when he isn’t and, of course, the first to work toward improvement.

With the disappointment of 2012 behind him, I have no doubt Halladay is going to want to be better and is going to put that thought into reality.

If healthy, Halladay will be an asset to this team and will win 18 games. As far as the losses, I think 10 is also a reasonable number considering that he will be off at times, and of course, there will be times when the Phils just don’t score for him.

 

Walks, Strikeouts (38 BB, 200 SO)

Walks: Over the course of his career, if there is one thing that Halladay can be counted on for, it is a lack of handing out freebies to opposing batters.

Last year in just 156.1 innings, he walked a pretty high 36 batters. In fact, this was the highest number of walks given out in his three-year career with the Phils. Since 2002, Halladay has only walked over 40 batters twice, an incredible feat for someone who regularly pitches over 200 innings a season. 

Again, going off the thinking that Halladay will be healthy in 2013, do not expect his walk total to exceed 40 next year either. More than win-loss, however, the health of his arm and his back are really the biggest factors in determining how on target his control is.

As a result, I am going to chalk his walk total up to the injury. With that taken care of, he’ll be back to his old self when it comes to bases on balls.

Strikeouts: Halladay has never really been considered a power pitcher over the course of his career, which is surprising considering his success. Halladay pitches to contact and lets batters get themselves out. He does throw strikeouts when needed, however, and has a great out pitch in his curveball.

That said, Halladay, who is never satisfied with how he pitches, managed to improve his strikeouts in the past five years. With the exception of last season, Halladay topped the 200-strikeout plateau each season, marking the only seasons besides 2003 in which he managed this feat.

With little margin to spare, I predict Halladay’s strikeouts will fall somewhere between 185 and 215 next year, with a guess that the number lands exactly at the 200 mark. Again, however, this all depends on his health. With the expectation that Halladay’s injury was not the sign of a failing body, I think 200 strikeouts is not only possible but probable in 2013.

 

ERA/WHIP (2.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)

When Halladay is at his best, he is doing multiple things well. The first of which is pitching to contact and minimizing mistakes. The second of which is limiting the amount of runners on base from scoring.

With the exception of last season, Halladay, who has pitched at his best as of recently, has had an ERA of under three in each of the last four seasons. In his Cy Young-winning season, his ERA was a fantastic 2.44, bested only by the 2.35 he posted the following season.

If Halladay’s April stats from 2012 are to be taken for anything, it can realistically be expected that his ERA would have been right around the marks he has posted the past two seasons while in the National League. In fact, in 37 innings over the course of five starts, Halladay gave up just eight earned runs and, most importantly, zero home runs. 

Halladay has been pretty consistent since 2002 in terms of the amount of hits he gives up in a season. He has given up approximately less than 15 to 20 hits per inning pitched in most of his last 11 seasons. Only twice has he given up more hits than innings pitched.

Going along with his low walk total, Halladay has for the most part had a very solid WHIP. Expect that to say the same next year. He should give up about 215 hits, and I expect that he will pitch around 220 to 230 innings.

For this reason, his WHIP should sit at around 1.10.

 

2013 Predicted Stat Line: 18 W, 10 L, 38 BB, 200 SO, 2.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

So while Halladay may not be a Cy Young contender in 2013, and while he may not even be the best pitcher on the Phillies staff (bonus prediction: Cole Hamels will win 20 games in 2013), I have no reason to think that Halladay won’t be among one of the best pitchers in the National League.

Yes he is 35, and yes he has logged a considerable amount of innings, but at the same time, the injury is really the first he has had of that variety and in my opinion is a fluke. If Halladay had previous injury issues, then yes, one should be suspicious. That isn’t the case, however.

Even if he is slowing down and age and wear and tear will soon factor in, this is likely Halladay’s last season in a Phillies uniform. For this reason, expect him to perform at a high level and maybe, just maybe, put the Phils in a position to once again make the playoffs.

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Predicting Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s Plan of Action the Rest of the Phillies’ Offseason

Will the Philadelphia Phillies‘ offseason be more memorable for the players general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. missed out on rather than who was brought in? 

Getting one or two outfielders was Amaro‘s stated priority this winter. Consequently, the Phillies were viewed as a possible destination for virtually all of the top free-agent talent at that position. Whether the expectations were realistic or not, Philadelphia was seen as a fit for B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and even Josh Hamilton. 

The Phillies did get the center fielder Amaro coveted, acquiring Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins. But the team is still lacking a right-handed power bat that would bring the lineup some balance. Could Michael Young be that hitter? It seems doubtful, given that he hit eight home runs with a .682 OPS this season. 

However, Young does fill the Phillies’ hole at third base. He’ll have to hit to make up for below-average defense, but considering the options available on the free-agent and trade markets for the position, this could be a nice pickup for Amaro. 

Philadelphia also filled its need for a right-handed setup reliever nicely, signing Mike Adams to a two-year, $12 million contract. Adams is coming off thoracic outlet surgery, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. If healthy, Adams has been one of the best relievers in MLB over the past five seasons. 

After including Vance Worley in the Revere trade, the Phillies were lacking a fifth starter. Signing John Lannan could take care of that. Lannan spent most of this season in Triple-A Syracuse with the Washington Nationals. But he’s capable of pitching 200 innings and has experience pitching against NL East competition. 

Overall, the Phillies have done a nice job of patching the holes on their roster. But without adding that flashy, difference-making sort of player through free agency or trade, has Amaro really done enough to put his team back into contention with the Nationals and Atlanta Braves in the NL East? 

Unfortunately, the train full of game-changing types of hitters has already left the station. Upton went to the Braves. Swisher signed with the Cleveland Indians. If the Phillies were ever really an option for Hamilton, it’s irrelevant because he’s with the Los Angeles Angels now. 

Players on the second-tier of free agency also signed elsewhere. Torii Hunter signed with the Detroit Tigers. Angel Pagan returned to the San Francisco Giants. 

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some possibilities still available for Amaro. But he might have to take on more salary than preferred to get a power bat in the outfield. 

Vernon Wells has been attached to the Phillies in trade rumors, according to CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury. Wells would certainly provide a right-handed bat for the lineup. But how productive of a hitter is he at this point? Injuries limited Wells to 262 plate appearances this season, but he hit only. 230 with a .682 OPS. 

However, Wells is one year removed from hitting 20 home runs with 66 RBI. Though he compiled a .660 OPS in 2011, the Phillies would likely take those power numbers for one of their outfield openings. 

The big problem with Wells, of course, is that he’s owed $42 million over the remaining two years on his contract. How much of that would the Angels pick up in a deal? How much would Amaro have to give up in such a trade? 

A better option might be Alfonso Soriano from the Chicago Cubs. Soriano hit 32 homers with 108 RBI this year, which would fit nicely between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Phillies lineup. But Soriano has two years and $36 million left on his contract. Cubs president Theo Epstein might want more in a trade too, since Soriano put up such impressive numbers.

Additionally, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies are in the mix for Scott Hairston, who hit .286 with an .867 OPS in 199 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year. 

However, Salisbury points out that the Phillies might prefer someone who can play right field, so Darin Ruf can get a shot in left. Ruf hit 38 homers with 104 RBI for Double-A Reading this year. In 37 plate appearances with the Phillies, he compiled a 1.079 OPS, three home runs and 10 RBI. 

If the Phillies are thus focused more on getting a right fielder, the best player available could be Andre Ethier from the Los Angeles Dodgers. But with a five-year, $85 million contract extension about to begin for him, the best way for Amaro to make that move would be to trade Cliff Lee to the Dodgers.

Amaro doesn’t want to do that. Even though Ethier would add 20 home runs and 85 RBI to the lineup, it’s difficult to see how such a trade would make the Phillies better. If Philadelphia contends in the NL East, it will be because of Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels.

That could leave the Arizona Diamondbacks as Amaro‘s best trade partner. The D-Backs made one of the most surprising moves of this offseason, signing Cody Ross to a three-year, $26 million contract. But while the Phillies didn’t get Ross, they could still benefit because of him.

Signing Ross leaves the D-Backs with a surplus of outfielders. While Justin Upton has been on the block since the July 31 trade deadline, it seems unlikely that Arizona GM Kevin Towers is going to deal him after getting shortstop Didi Gregrious in a three-team trade with the Indians and Reds. 

Even if Towers was still willing to trade Upton, the Phillies don’t have the resources to get him—especially after trading Worley and top pitching prospect Trevor May in the deal for Revere. But Jason Kubel could be attainable. He’s certainly expendable after the D-Backs signed Ross. 

Kubel is a left-handed bat, but if the Phillies were looking at Hamilton or Swisher, that clearly isn’t an obstacle for them. Capable of hitting 25 homers with 95 RBI (he surpassed both of those totals this year in Arizona), Kubel would be the run producer Amaro is seeking. He can also play right field. 

Two other Arizona outfielders that could interest Amaro—though they wouldn’t supply Kubel‘s power—are Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock. Parra would provide improved defense and speed to the Phillies lineup. Pollock brings the same skills and also bats right-handed. 

However, with either of those two players joining Revere in the Phillies outfield, the team would really need Ruf to emerge as a legitimate major league power hitter. 

Those looking for the Phillies to sign a big name this winter are probably disappointed by how the offseason has developed thus far. But being patient has worked out relatively well for Amaro, and not being impulsive could still pay off nicely. Plenty of possibilities are still available. 

 

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25 Bold Predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2013

So the end of the Mayan calendar did not bring a fiery death to we Earth-living beings, who now ask in equally as much confusion, “What in the world is in store for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2013?” Excellent question. 

The reality here is that the Phillies’ season could play out in a couple of different ways. If you’re willing to write off 2012 as an anomaly, then this club has another shot at a World Series title with an aging core. But with that in mind, those guys aren’t getting any younger. Was 2012 the beginning of the end for the Phils? 

You know what that means, right? It’s time for some predictions. This slideshow will offer up a range of predictions beginning with January 1, 2013 and spanning the entire year. For the sake of this slideshow, no prediction is off limits. 

So with that in mind, what is in store for the Phillies in 2013? 

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10 More Steps for Philadelphia Phillies to Reclaim MLB Throne

The temptation to take an unlikely premise for success and sarcastically run with it—”throw Chase Utley in the Wayback Machine and set it to 2006″ or “throw Ryan Howard 1,000,000 left-handed sliders until he is immune from their hypnotic effects”—is great.

For that matter, there is also “petition Bud Selig to move the Phillies from the National League Eastern Division, where they are third-best, to a more hospitable division like the National League Central.”

But we deal in reality here.

So if the Phillies are going to take this semi-broken-down, paying-too-much-money-to-almost-shot-players team to the promised land, extreme measures are not just in play—they are the only way home.

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Phillies Rumors: Fact or Fiction on All the Hottest Rumors in Philadelphia

We’ve reached the point in the offseason where free agency becomes a waiting game. Players are waiting for teams to get desperate enough to overpay them, and teams are waiting for players to become bargains. Something has to give. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have filled almost all of their needs this offseason. While a right-handed, power-hitting corner outfielder would be nice, there isn’t any one player on the market that undoubtedly fills that need. They’ll wait for a bargain. 

Of course, that bargain doesn’t necessarily have to be a free agent. Heck, it doesn’t even have to be a bargain. There are still players available that would help the Phillies in 2013, and possibly beyond. So with that in mind, here are a few names to consider as the rumor mill continues to churn.

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5 Decisions the Phillies Will Have to Make Before Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the offseason with a handful of questions that needed answering and have managed to address nearly all of them while keeping their payroll at a reasonable level.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was able to address the team’s needs at third base and center field through the trade market, and found an eighth inning reliever and fifth starter for the rotation through free agency.

However, these moves, and lack thereof, have led to a new set of questions heading into spring training.

By having not yet acquired another corner outfielder, and preferably someone who bats from the right side, the Phillies currently have only one starter in their outfield set in stone for next season.  Are the Phillies comfortable heading to spring training with the corner outfielders currently on the roster as their only options?

By trading for Michael Young from the Texas Rangers, the Phillies were able to strengthen their bench by moving Kevin Frandsen into a reserve role.  But where will Freddy Galvis now start the season?

Are Michael Martinez and Pete Orr really the best candidates for the reserve infielder roles?

These are some of the questions that the Phillies now face as the offseason continues and rosters further take shape.  However, unlike those questions that will be answered once the season starts, such as whether or not Chase Utley can remain healthy for a full 162 game schedule, the new set of questions represent decisions that must be made much sooner.

Once spring training begins, an offseason’s worth of strategizing will culminate in a battle for 25 roster spots, but the key pieces must be put in place beforehand.

Here are five decisions that the Phillies will have to make before spring training.

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Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks Possible Trade Partners

It was reported Saturday that the Arizona Diamondbacks had agreed to terms with free-agent outfielder Cody Ross.  This signing narrows an already thin free-agent outfielder market.

Throughout the offseason, D-back outfielders Justin Upton and Jason Kubel have been discussed as possible trade bait. With the signing of Ross, the Diamonbacks now have an excess of outfielders, which reopens that possibility.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, it looks more likely that Kubel will be traded.  However, Upton’s name has been mentioned in several trade possibilities.

Kubel would not be a fit for the Philadelphia Phillies, as he is a left-handed bat and primarily a left fielder.  It is assumed that Darin Ruf will be taking most of the playing time in left field for the Phillies.

Upton, on the other hand, would be a great fit.  He is a right-handed right fielder with the ability to hit for power.  He is an excellent defender with a great deal of speed.  He is also only 25 years old. His addition would make the aging Phillies younger.

The biggest question is what the D-backs would be looking for in return.  Upton is a proven All-Star-caliber player, and the Phillies have traded away most of their most attractive trade targets already this offseason.

A few of the players the Phillies could include in a trade are Domonic Brown, Tyler Cloyd and Michael Schwimer.  The Phillies could also include a prospect package in the deal, which would likely include catcher Sebastian Valle. 

The Phillies have not been actively looking to trade any of their other prospects, but they may see the possibility of acquiring Upton as a proper time to make such a deal.

Brown has been an extremely inconsistent player in his three stints in the majors.  He does not carry the trade value that he once did, which means he alone would not be enough to get Upton. 

For a long time, the Phillies refused to include Brown in any deal, but they been frustrated with his performance.  If the Phillies were able to acquire Upton in a deal that included Brown, it would certainly be worth doing.

In 2012, Upton hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBI.  He also had 63 walks and 18 stolen bases.  The Phillies park is much more hitter-riendly than Chase Field in Arizona.  Upton would also be under team control through the 2015 season and would be making just over $9 million this season.

The price for the Phillies to acquire Upton would probably be high, but the rewards would be worth the price.  It just depends on whether the D-backs would like what the Phillies have to offer.

If they like acquiring Brown as a fourth or fifth outfielder, along with a bullpen arm (Schwimer) and a catching prospect (Valle), the Phillies would have themselves a good deal.

The D-backs have sought on several occasions to deal Upton, and it would behoove the Phillies to acquire him at this time.  It would help the D-backs remove a player they have been looking to deal, while also filling a hole in the Phillies’ lineup that has been a cause of great concern.

The Phillies should make this deal. Upton could be the answer the Phillies have been seeking in right field, ever since it was vacated by Jayson Werth.

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Philadelphia Phillies: ‘Ruffing’ It in Left Field?

The Philadelphia Phillies have several holes that they needed to fill in the 2012 offseason. This is partially due to the subpar performance of the 2012 where they decided to trade away two outfielders and a starting pitcher. Those players are Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Joe Blanton, respectively.

Since the offseason has started, Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has sought to fill those holes along with the hole at the back end of the inconsistent bullpen.

So far, Amaro has filled three of those holes: first by trading for Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins to play centerfield and then for Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to third base, as that was a position of inconsistent performance in 2012 as well and one that saw eight different players cover during throughout the year. Last week, Amaro also filled the bullpen hole by signing free agent Mike Adams.

Amaro has been looking for a corner outfielder that can provide consistent offense and play strong defense. The free agent market has been unflattering, except Josh Hamilton who has already signed with the Los Angeles Angels. The price of any outfielder seems higher than Amaro wants to pay and probably higher than those players would receive if there were better talent on the market.

With the free agent market drying up and trade agents seemingly shutting down, Amaro has looked at internal options for the outfield.

Three options that he has are the frustratingly inconsistent Domonic Brown, who has yet to live up to the potential stamped on him when he was regarded as a top prospect, John Mayberry Jr. who has also been inconsistent, but shown flashes of how well he can play given an everyday starter job (see more in a forthcoming story) and Darin Ruf, who seemed to come out of nowhere after blowing up in AA Reading this past season.

The general consensus is that Ruf will have a fair shot at earning an everyday or platoon spot on the Phillies roster in left field. People have compared him to Pat Burrell in his prime.  The 26-year-old has a lot of pop from the right side of the plate, which was one major vacancy in the Phillies roster all of last year with the exception of Carlos Ruiz. Now, Ruf has an extremely limited amount of major league experience, but all signs point to the fact that he can contribute on a daily basis.

No matter where he played in 2012, all he did was drive in runs.  In AA Reading he hit 38 home runs and drove in 104 runs.  When he finally got a chance to play in nine Phillies games last year, he managed to hit three home runs and drive in 10 runs.  He then played in the Venezuelan Winter League where he broke the record for home runs with 10 and drove in 27 runs. Through all the leagues he played in, he has averaged at least one hit per game.

Overall, in the minors this year, across 489 at bats, Ruf hit for .317 average, with a .620 slugging percentage, and a 1.028 OPS.  In those at bats, he hit 38 home runs, 32 doubles, and had 104 RBIs.  He also had a 120:65 strikeout to walk ratio.  When he made his debut in the majors, he continued with his natural slugging ability by hitting for a .333 average, with 3 home runs, 2 doubles and 10 RBIs across 33 at bats.  Then in Winter League he hit for an average of .258 with 10 home runs, 27 RBIs, and 8 doubles across 120 at bats in 33 games.

He is also a substantial defender at left field or first base.  He is not going to be the best defender in the game, but he brings an above average ability to play his zone and brings a great deal to the plate overall.  So, regardless of the fact that he is a first baseman and not a true outfielder, would the Phillies be risking it by “Ruffing it in left field,” or would he be the answer for power that was missing from the right side of the plate and left field in all of 2012?

He is an average defender, but he has been hitting the ball like an all-star all season. If he can perform like he has shown he can, the Phillies are much better with him in left field than any option they would find on the market. For example, he drove in the last eight runs against the Nationals that the Phillies had in 2012 across four games. Ruf has shown enough to be the Phillies left fielder for 2013.

The question for left field has been answered. The only question should be is what will be done in right field.

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Why Phillies Trading Cliff Lee for Jacoby Ellsbury Would Be a Terrible Idea

The Philadelphia Phillies still need an outfielder. The Boston Red Sox could still use another starting pitcher. 

While those two situations exist during the offseason, those who follow and cover MLB will try to connect dots and speculate that a trade between the Phillies and Red Sox involving Cliff Lee and Jacoby Ellsbury would be a good idea. 

Curt Schilling—who pitched for both teams in his 20-year major league career—is one such person, suggesting on Twitter that the Phillies give the Red Sox a call and try to make this deal happen. As you might imagine, that stirred up Boston sports talk radio. 

Could this trade really happen? At this point, such rumors look like total speculation, trying to play matchmaker between two teams that could seemingly help each other. As the weather gets colder throughout the country, it’s an attempt to keep baseball’s hot stove season burning. 

Neither side seems interested in making such a deal, though general managers could always be posturing for the media, trying to throw reporters off the trail and placate fans starving for any sort of juicy trade rumors. 

CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury reported that the Red Sox indeed proposed trading Ellsbury to the Phillies for Lee. Boston was told, however, that Lee wasn’t available. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. wants to keep his starting pitching trio of Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels together. 

Salisbury points out, however, that Amaro‘s stance could change by the July 31 trade deadline if the Phillies aren’t in contention. Reporters like to keep the possibility of juicy trade rumors going too. 

For what it’s worth, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington says he doesn’t want to trade Ellsbury, according to ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes. Cherington expects the center fielder to be an important contributor for the team next season. 

Of course, if Salisbury’s report is accurate, Cherington might feel that way because the Phillies shot down an Ellsbury-for-Lee proposal. 

Rumors of the Red Sox trading Ellsbury just won’t go away, however. The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo has been working hard at chasing them down.

One American League executive told him that Boston might be trying to trade Ellsbury so that they can re-sign Cody Ross. The Red Sox could then move Shane Victorino to center field. MLB general managers apparently like to play the trade speculation game as well. 

Cafardo also checked on the possibility of the Los Angeles Dodgers trading Andre Ethier to Boston for Ellsbury, which would give them a needed leadoff hitter. But Cafardo‘s source with the Dodgers put that rumor out with a quick denial. 

Maybe reporters and fellow general managers are trying to do Cherington‘s job for him and put together a deal. But if other MLB teams think the Red Sox are eager to trade Ellsbury, Cherington likely isn’t going to find a very good deal. Thus, he’s publicly keeping his arms folded and insisting that Ellsbury won’t be dealt away. 

Trade speculation isn’t going to die down, however.

Ellsbury has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining and, as a Scott Boras client, isn’t going to agree to a new contract without testing out the free-agent market for maximum possible value. That has most people thinking that the Red Sox will try to get something in return for Ellsbury before he skips town for a rich contract elsewhere. 

This is why the Phillies aren’t going to take Ellsbury in a trade for Lee.

Lee still has three years on his contract, with a club option for 2016. Though it would give Philadelphia some payroll flexibility to trade Lee and the $87.5 million remaining on his contract (which would go up to $102.5 million if his option is picked up), Amaro isn’t going to trade one of his best players for someone who will likely leave as a free agent after the season. 

Sure, the Phillies could use Ellsbury. He had an MVP-caliber year in 2011, hitting .321 with a .928 OPS, 46 doubles, 32 home runs, 105 RBI and 39 stolen bases. He was also one of the best defensive center fielders in MLB, according to FanGraphs‘ Ultimate Zone Rating, saving nearly 16 runs more than the average player at that position.

If Ellsbury is capable of putting up that kind of performance again, any team would want him. He would obviously be a tremendous addition to the Phillies outfield. 

Even if Philadelphia already traded for Ben Revere, the team could move him to right field, where he played most of his games last season. Amaro could probably live with Darin Ruf or Domonic Brown in left field with Ellsbury on his roster. 

Again, however, it’s not going to happen. Lee isn’t going to be traded for one year of Ellsbury. He definitely isn’t going to be dealt at the trade deadline for what would amount to a three-month rental of Ellsbury if the Phillies aren’t a contender. And if the Red Sox are in the chase for a playoff spot, they probably wouldn’t want to trade Ellsbury either.

That won’t stop reporters and analysts from trying to connect the dots, of course. Trade speculation will follow Lee and Ellsbury throughout the season. The match between the Phillies and Red Sox is just too enticing to ignore. 

 

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