Phillies Rumors: Fact or Fiction on All the Hottest Rumors in Philadelphia

With the annual Winter Meetings set to kick off on December 3, the rumor mill is about to shift into overdrive, and you don’t want to be caught in the middle of the road when this thing gets going. 

The meetings—designed to give each team’s executives an opportunity to speak with not only each other, but some of the top free agents and their representation—have become a rumor bonanza over the last couple of seasons. The week leading up to the annual meetings is normally all about “laying the groundwork.” 

The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to be among the most active teams over the next couple weeks. They have a huge gap to fill in center field, and until they fill it, you can’t count them 100 percent out on any given player. 

They have the money. They have the need. 

And that’s only the biggest hole in this Phillies roster. They’ll also be in the market for a third baseman and a setup man, as well as on other, smaller fronts, like the corner outfield market. 

With the Winter Meetings quickly rounding into focus, you could call this the “calm before the storm,” but if the rumor mill never takes on a single attribute, it’s calm. Let this slide show serve as a tool of either debunking or confirming the hottest rumors coming out of Philly. 

Each player will either be labeled fact (meaning the Phillies have a legitimate interest and an opportunity to acquire said player in a reasonable fashion) or fiction (bringing said player to town is outside the realm of possibility). 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Jonathan Papelbon Signing a Mistake on Many Levels

Phillies fans breathlessly await this offseason’s big-name acquisition.

After the 2009 season, the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, committing $60 million to him, per MLB.com.

After the 2010 season, recognizing how foolish they had been in trading Cliff Lee away in the first place, the Phillies brought Lee back for $120 million, per sbnation.com.

Those moves made sense and, for the most part, Halladay and Lee have delivered on their contracts.

Unfortunately, as wise as the Halladay and Lee acquisitions were, the Phillies lost the plot during the 2011 offseason.

The signing of Jonathan Papelbon for $50 million (per ESPN.com) was only marginally defensible when it happened. Now, with three years left on the deal, that decision has turned out to be a serious error in judgment.

Mind you, this is in no way an indictment of Papelbon or his performance. 

Unlike many of the players to whom the Phillies paid eight-figure salaries in 2012, Papelbon did more or less what the Phillies expected him to do.

Papelbon saved 38 games. His earned run average of 2.44 was sterling, as was his 1.06 WHIP. Striking out 92 batters in 70 games was also in line with what the Phillies expected to get from Papelbon when they gave him all that money.

And when you look around the National League, it is hard to identify many closers you would rather have than Papelbon.

Craig Kimbrel is one.

Kimbrel shared the league lead in saves, posted absurdly low numbers for earned run average (1.01) and WHIP (.654) and he is only 24 years of age.

 

Aroldis Chapman, also 24, saved 38 games, but with much better peripheral statistics than Papelbon (1.51 earned run average, .809 WHIP, 122 strikeouts in 71.2 innings pitched).

But Chapman is only a year removed from his predominantly lost 2011 season, when the Reds could not figure out what to do with him and he struggled with injury.

After Kimbrel and Chapman, Papelbon compares favorably with the premier closers in the rest of the National League.

Jason Motte saved 42 games, but 2012 marked the first time in his career that he had ever saved more than nine games, and he is 30 years old. 

Beyond Motte, you see a number of journeymen and league-average types: Joel Hanrahan, John Axford, J.J. Putz, et al.

Given Papelbon’s track record and his solid production in 2012, the Phillies would likely prefer him to any of those closers.

So why is the Papelbon signing such a mistake?

If the San Francisco Giants proved anything in their recent World Series run, it is that Billy Beane’s famous theory that just about anyone can close games is true.

When the Giants won the 2010 World Series, Brian Wilson made a name for himself as a quirky, lights-out closer with a funky beard. 

This season, however, Wilson pitched in two games before needing reconstructive elbow surgery. The Giants’ regular-season saves leader was Santiago Casilla.

But Sergio Romo saved all four games in the 2012 World Series. 

 

Beyond that, the eight figures that Papelbon commanded meant that the Phillies entered 2012 with plans to have inexpensive pitchers bridge games from the pricey starting staff to him.

Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, David Herndon and Michael Stutes were all projected to pitch in the seventh and eighth innings of close games.

Of that group, all but Bastardo got hurt, and Bastardo‘s performance was so poor that by the end of the season he was primarily used in low-leverage situations.

Further, because manager Charlie Manuel was exceptionally loath to use Papelbon for more than one inning, the Phillies were eventually compelled to entrust late inning leads to the likes of B.J. Rosenberg, Jeremy Horst and Joe Savery, with predictable results.

At this point, the Phillies are probably stuck with Papelbon, at least in 2013.

His trade value with $39 million more due over the next three seasons is not going to be great. As such, the Phillies are best served hoping that he will churn out another healthy season of 30-plus saves.

If they had it to do over again, though, the Phillies would probably have Papelbon make his generational money somewhere else.

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Philadelphia Phillies Rumors: Pros and Cons of Acquiring Each Top Winter Target

Ever since before the final pitch of the 2012 World Series was thrown, the hot stove of the Philadelphia Phillies has been burning brightly. Before the regular season even ended, the team had already been connected to top-notch free agents. The rumor mill began to swirl as it always does in the offseason. This year, however, the presence of the big and available names provide quite a large free-agent pool.

The question then is not if, but when, Amaro will eventually jump in and make a splash.

Before we all wake up one morning to find out that Amaro did in fact make the big splash that, let’s face it, has become his and the Phillies’ calling card as of late, let’s take a look at the names MLB Trade Rumors have connected the Phillies to and why they either would or wouldn’t be a good fit with the team.

Here are the pros and cons of each of the top 16 free agent/trade targets the Phillies have been connected to since the start of the offseason.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Why Angel Pagan Would Fit in the Lineup Perfectly

Free-agent center fielder Angel Pagan was expected to return to the San Francisco Giants. After all, they just won a World Series, and Pagan played a significant role on that team.

However, according to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Giants are not sure that they want to give him as long of a contract as he wants.

Of course, these two parties could easily resolve this problem, but if it does not work out, the Philadelphia Phillies need to make a move and sweep up Pagan for their void in center field.

The typical argument against Pagan joining the Philadelphia Phillies is his age. He is 31 years old, and the Phillies have one of the oldest teams in baseball. Many people would argue that they need to look at a younger option like B.J. Upton.

However, this argument is somewhat flawed.

Relying only on age to judge a player would be like an NBA team signing an eight-foot player who has never touched a basketball before. Yes, height is important in basketball just like age is important in baseball, but it is only one dimension. The skills need to be there beyond these unchangeable factors.

Pagan has the type of skill set that would benefit the Philadelphia Phillies.

Last season, he hit .288 with eight home runs, 56 RBI and 29 stolen bases. He also led the National League with 15 triples and rapped out 38 doubles. While he doesn’t seem to have a lot of home run power, he has quite a bit of extra-base-hit power.

The home run power also might develop in Citizens Bank Park, which is much more hitter-friendly than AT&T Park.

That is important because Chase Utley and Ryan Howard exist in the middle of the Philadelphia batting order to drive in runs. Both of these men have the potential to drive in over 100 runs, but they need people on base. Pagan has obviously proven that he can get on base, and that is the easiest way to score runs.

Also, it is significant to note that in his entire career (695 games), Pagan has grounded into only 25 double plays. By putting him in the second slot, Pagan gives the Phillies some safety at the top of the lineup: If leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins got on base, the bases would rarely be cleared because of Pagan.

Again, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley need people to drive in. Pagan would not eliminate these opportunities.

The Phillies do not need more power from a high-strikeout hitter like Upton in the middle of their lineup. They need people to handle themselves at the top of the order and utilize the power that they already have.

I realize that a lot of this argument relies on the fact that Utley and Howard need to be healthy and return to their normal level of production. And perhaps that is a bit of an assumption. However, just by looking at his statistics, we can see that Pagan gets on base without compromising the offensive attack. Whoever is in the middle of the lineup would benefit from that.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly that Pagan is definitely on his radar, and if the Giants are not able to bring him back, the Philadelphia Phillies need to make a major play for the center fielder.

 

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

 
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Grading Ruben Amaro Jr.’s 25 Biggest Offseason Moves as Phillies GM

No one is ever going to accuse a general manager of a Major League Baseball team of having an easy job, namely because when someone needs to shoulder the blame (or reap the benefits), it falls on the guy who is responsible for putting the team together. 

As with any position with an ounce of power and responsibility, when things go well, you’re a great general manager. When things go wrong, it’s all your fault. 

Ruben Amaro Jr. is a man who has experienced both ends of the spectrum as the GM of the Philadelphia Phillies. He took over following a World Series title in 2008 and missed the postseason in one of the team’s most highly anticipated seasons in 2012. 

Now, with an aging core and few prospects ready to step up as reinforcements, Amaro has his work cut out for him this offseason. With several holes to fill and limited resources, he’ll need to be both smart and savvy. 

Is he up to the task? One way to find out is to take a look back at his offseason history. Amaro has a long history of offseason moves with the Phillies and now, it’s time to slap a grade on them. 

Each move will be graded on the following attributes: Performance and contract. 

That’s it. Did Amaro get the perfect amount of bang for his buck? Let’s take a look.

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4 Reasons Philadelphia Phillies Fans Hate the Atlanta Braves

Expecting the New York Mets, were you? Not this time.

When the average Philadelphia Phillies fan thinks of the baseball team they despise the most, the team that usually comes to mind if the New York Mets, and rightfully so. They won two World Series before the Phillies won their first despite being a younger franchise. For years they were a better team, and in Philadelphia that does not resonate well with fans.

However, it’s been at least a good six or seven years since the Mets were competitive, and at least from what I’ve seen, some of that rivalry has died off. Well, from Philadelphia’s perspective, anyway. Chances are that Mets fans aren’t so high on the Phillies right now since they single-handedly prevented the Mets from making the playoffs in 2007 and 2008.

Since the Atlanta Braves have made a resurgence a few years back, they have competed neck-and-neck with the Phillies for the NL East crown. Granted, the Phillies did not create that opportunity for themselves in 2013, but in the two or three seasons before that, it’s been the Braves who have caused problems for the Phillies.

Here’s four reasons why Phillies fans hate the Braves.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Reasons They Can Compete—and Win—in 2013

The Phillies continue to be linked to numerous prominent free agent center fielders (per mlbtraderumors.com) as the hot stove begins to take on that familiar orange glow.

It would be wonderful if the Phillies’ problems were so easy to solve that one big-money free agent signing would catapult them back into playoff contention. Sadly, the Phillies have many more holes to fill than just center field. 

They need another outfielder, a third baseman, bullpen arms to ferry games from Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee to Jonathan Papelbon and, depending on Freddy Galvis’ health, possibly a utility infielder. Also, it would help if any of the hitters they sign could hit from the right side.

On a happier note, Darin Ruf hit .258 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI through 32 Venezualan Fall League games. Perhaps left field is not as great a concern as previously believed.

The better news is that the Phillies will not need Ruf to hit 40-plus home runs in 2013 to contend. What follows are the reasons why.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Who Should Be the Starting Third Baseman?

The Philadelphia Phillies have a tough decision when it comes to third base. Will the team build from within or test the free market?

And no—the team will not trade for a third baseman.

The main focus this offseason has been center field and rightly so. The outfield talent swimming in the free-agent waters far outweighs the limited third base talent attempting not to drown—it just so happens the Phillies are in desperate need of a center fielder.

But are the Phillies desperate at third base?

Earlier this month, the team avoided arbitration by signing last year’s second-half starter, Kevin Frandsen, to a one-year deal. Frandsen compiled a nice season, ending with a .338 batting average and .383 OBP—yet only two home runs and 14 RBI. He was average, at best, in the field.

Does this warrant a starting spot next season?

Maybe.

First, let’s look at the third base talent the Phillies could realistically pursue.

Kevin Youkilis, Eric Chavez, Marco Scutaro or Jeff Keppinger—not the most exciting list of ball players.

Let’s get Keppinger out the way. He is basically Kevin Frandsen with a few more years of experience. Granted Kepp is the better fielder, it would be a lateral move for the Phillies. In other words, he’s a waste of money. 

Marco Scutaro has developed into a solid ball player and adding a World Series championship to his resume makes him worth that much more. He’s always been a consistent, average, utility-type player, but his past two seasons have been above average. 

Scutaro, 37, will be looking for larger dollars and longer years. The Phillies would be getting a solid player, but not a long-term investment. More than likely, he re-signs with the Giants.

Eric Chavez is far too risky of a signing. The veteran third baseman enjoyed a nice comeback season, but who knows if he can repeat the performance. The last time Chavez played in 100-plus games was back in 2006. Injuries have slowed his once promising career, and the Phillies would be overpaying him this offseason.

This leaves the only free-agent third baseman left on the table—Kevin Youkilis.

Youk’s play has declined over recent seasons, but he still remains an above-average player. He is a patient, right-handed power hitter, who could be inserted nicely in the Phillies lineup. Youk would also serve as the reserve first baseman, behind Ryan Howard.

The issue with Youk is he wants a multi-year contract, and the Phillies are hesitant.

Who could blame them?

With Cody Asche tearing up the minors and Freddy Galvis being groomed as the next best utility player, why would the Phillies sign the aging vet to a multi-year deal?

The Phillies executives need to determine if signing a free-agent—at the right price—is necessary to win a championship next season.

If the Phillies could ink Youkilis to a one-year deal, he would be the ideal choice for the club next season.

Otherwise, Kevin Frandsen is your Opening Day starter, and the Phillies will ride him, as far as he can go.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Selecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ All-Time Free Agent Team

Signing a free agent isn’t easy. 

It’s a transaction process in Major League Baseball made out to look like a piece of cake. Have a team offer a player as much money as they can and hope that he signs on the dotted line, but it’s so much more than that. 

Free agency was designed, at it’s core, to give players options—rights. After accruing the necessary amount of service time, players are allowed to hit the open market and make a decision for themselves on where they want to play next. 

From a team perspective, it’s a bit different. Free agency becomes about retaining your own players and trying to better your club by making offers to others. It becomes a parade of why a given player should sign with your team; how they can make you better. 

Some people will make it out to be easy from time to time. It’s not. If any team knows this, it’s the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Free agency has not been kind to the Phillies in the past because while they have found some real keepers, free agency has broken their hearts more than once. 

So while Ruben Amaro Jr. and company attempts to restock the Phillies through the free agent market this winter, let us take a look at the past. I’ve assembled the Phillies all-time “free agent” team. 

That means that I have assembled a 25-man roster of players who signed exclusively as free agents. For the sake of fairness, this list will not include amateur free agents.

*All statistics refer to a player’s career with the Phillies only.

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Why Darin Ruf Won’t Start the 2013 Season in Philadelphia

Many fans are intrigued by the possibilities of what Darin Ruf could bring to the 2013 Phillies. 

Virtually an unknown prior to his breakout 2012 season, Ruf took the Eastern League by storm, bashing 38 home runs and driving in 105 runs.  With the Phillies lacking for a right-handed power bat ever since Jayson Werth left for D.C. millions, Ruf’s presence could change the entire dynamic of their lineup

In a brief September audition with the Phillies, he did not disappoint.  Despite getting only 33 at-bats Ruf showed the type of power and poise he demonstrated in Reading, and gave fans something to be excited about after a lackluster season.

With Ryan Howard and his massive contract entrenched at first base for the foreseeable future, Ruf is spending his offseason learning to play the outfield  If he’s successful, the Phillies may have found their left fielder for the next several seasons.

However, regardless of how well he learns to play the outfield or what type of potential Ruf brings, the chances of the Phillies making him their opening day left fielder next season are miniscule.  It might not be the right choice—he’s already 26 years old and has shown he can dominate minor league pitching—but it’s unlikely he will be anywhere other than Lehigh Valley next April.

Here’s why.

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