Darin Ruf or Domonic Brown—For the Philadelphia Phillies, That Is the Question

Domonic Brown or Darin Ruf.

It seems obvious that at least one of them, and most likely only one, will be in the Phillies starting lineup in Atlanta come April.  The only question remaining is: which one?

Brown has been the Phillies’ highest rated, most untouchable prospect (at least in their eyes) since the day Mike Schmidt retired.  Okay, it hasn’t been that long, but sometimes it feels like it.  

In recent seasons the Phillies have traded away several minor leaguers to acquire the game’s top talent—Cliff Lee, Roys Halladay and Oswalt, Hunter Pence—and in every instance they have held on to Brown, believing he is the one “can’t miss” prospect.

However, Brown has done nothing at the major league level to warrant those beliefs.  In parts of three seasons, Brown’s performances across the board have been underwhelming to say the least.  He has shown absolutely no ability to be an impact hitter at the major league level, and looks defensively inept.

Which brings us to Darin Ruf, the Phillies’ minor league phenom of 2012.

Before this summer, hardly anyone in Philly had ever heard his named mentioned.  That’s the way of life for a 25-year-old beginning his first season in Double A.  

However, after breaking Ryan Howard’s single-season home run record at Reading, and then putting on a show for the big league club during the last week of the season, Darin Ruf is now a name everyone knows.  

He’s being talked about by fans everywhere, and is spending his offseason attempting to learn a new position.  With Howard—and his massive contract—firmly entrenched at first base, the only way Ruf cracks the Phillies lineup is in the outfield.  

Unfortunately for Ruf (and Brown), if the Phillies are going to spend any big free-agent dollars this winter it will likely be in the outfield.  And with several other major league outfielders either under contract or club control through at least 2013, there will be numerous bodies to fill positions on the field.

With three front-line starting pitchers, the highest paid reliever in the history of the game, and an aging roster, it’s doubtful the Phillies will enter next season with essentially two rookies in their outfield (Brown is not a rookie per se, but he’s as close to an unknown as one can get).  

One will play, one won’t.  It’s as simple as that.  And the choice between the two will logically come down to Domonic Brown playing and Darin Ruf heading to Lehigh Valley.

Based on what the two players have shown—both in the minor leagues and in brief auditions with the Phillies—some might argue that Ruf is the better player.  And he may very well be.  Ruf could turn into an adequate outfielder who slugs enough home runs to make up for any defensive laps, and Brown could be a complete major league bust.  

(Although a 20th round draft pick even reaching the major leagues should eliminate “complete bust” from his description; he’s already accomplished more than could realistically have been expected.)

However, if the Phillies are intent on starting one—and that seems to be the way they’re heading—giving Domonic Brown the opportunity makes the most sense.  He might not be the better player—not now, not ever—but the Phillies have a lot more invested in Brown than they do Ruf, and have reached the point of no return.

Brown is (or should be) out of minor league options.  Returning him to Triple A once more would require exposing him to waivers and risk losing him for nothing.  That is not the case with Darin Ruf, who can be optioned to the minor leagues without fear in both 2013 and 2014.

Even if the rules didn’t prevent the Phillies from sending Brown back to the minor leagues, doing so would make little sense.  His value—good or bad—will only be realized at the major league level.  The Phillies gain nothing from sending him to Triple A, and Brown would undoubtedly lose value with yet another minor league season.

Sending Darin Ruf to Lehigh Valley does not diminish his value.  In fact, going to Triple A and proving he can handle advanced pitching and playing the outfield might increase his worth within the organization and as a potential trade chip.  If Ruf continues his assault on minor league pitching he’ll be on his way to the majors soon enough.

Many fans—and possibly team officials—may be tired of waiting for Brown’s talent to emerge, and may be enamored with Darin Ruf’s potential, but for the long-term health of the franchise Domonic Brown needs one more chance.  It’s now or never for Brown.  Ruf will have another opportunity down the line—possibly as early as June or July.

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2012 MLB Offseason: Why the Phillies Should Pursue Twins Outfielder Denard Span

Once upon a time, the Philadelphia Phillies had a very good center fielder. (I begin with “once upon a time,” because it seems like it was forever ago.)

That man was Shane Victorino, who was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline in return for Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin and “a player to be named later,” who would eventually turn out to be Stefan Jarrin, leaving the Phillies with a gaping hole in their outfield. 

With the World Series in full swing, teams are chomping at the bit to get their hands on some of the winter’s prime free agents, including B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn and even Victorino. But if the Phillies were smart, they’d turn their attention to the trade market. 

One team that has a lot of work to do this offseason and could spare a center fielder on the trade market is the Minnesota Twins, and Denard Span fits the Phillies’ needs in quite a few ways. 

According to Phil Mackey of ESPN, the Twins are prepared to make nearly their entire roster available this winter: “Aside from Joe Mauer, who has a full no-trade clause, nobody is considered off-limits in potential trade discussions.”

And there is a reason for that. The Twins need starting pitching in the worst way. The only starter currently penciled into their rotation for next season is former Rule 5 draft pick Scott Diamond. 

Would they be willing to part with Span? One would certainly believe so. The left-handed center fielder is coming off one of the best seasons of his career in which he hit .283/.342/.395, stole 17 bases and played one of the best defensive center fields in the game. 

But one of the biggest things that the Twins have working for them in any trade discussion involving Span is his team-friendly contract—a huge plus. He is signed through the 2014 season with an option for 2015 that, if picked up, would pay him $20.25 million. 

Compared against some of the contracts that guys like Upton and Bourn will receive this winter, the Phillies wouldn’t mind having Span on the payroll in the least bit—but what would it take to get him? 

Pitching. That’s the obvious answer. The Twins need starting pitching like a fish needs water, and when you look back over past rumors involving the Washington Nationals and their closer, Drew Storen, they are going to want a solid arm. 

When it comes to pitching, the Phillies could go in one of two ways. 

They have prospects to offer. Guys who would open the season in Triple-A for the Phillies would likely be the subject of many a discussion, including names like Tyler Cloyd, Jonathan Pettibone and Trevor May—likely in that order. 

But I don’t see the Phillies being overly eager to move prospects when they could just as easily throw money at a free-agent center fielder. They’d save money on Span, but they’d save talent on a free agent. 

Another conversation would be Vance Worley, and at that point, you have to wonder how much is too much for Denard Span. 

Worley could be equally as valuable. He is the Phillies’ most affordable starting pitcher penciled into the rotation for the 2013 season and isn’t even eligible for arbitration until the conclusion of the 2014 season. He’ll be a free agent following the 2018 campaign. 

If the conversation becomes a swap of Worley and Span, you have to ask yourself this: What’s more valuable? Would you rather have a young center fielder who could slide into the top of your batting order for three seasons or a starting pitcher with upside who won’t become a free agent for six seasons? 

I suppose the answer lies in how you feel about Worley. If you see him as a middle- to bottom-of-the-rotation starter, it’s a no-brainer. If you still believe he has a little more upside than that, it’s a different conversation. 

Personally, and this is just speculation, if the conversation came down to being a swap of Span and Worley, and I were the Phillies general manager, I wouldn’t even hesitate to pull the trigger.

Getting an affordable center fielder like Span would be a blessing for the Phillies, who would save money on a free-agent option and allow them to pursue other players in other areas, like a reliever and a third baseman. 

Trading Worley would likely require the club to pursue a free-agent pitcher as well, but it would be a worthwhile venture (unless, of course, the team is willing to turn the reins over to a guy like Cloyd or Pettibone, and I don’t think they will be). 

There is also a third, albeit less likely, option in a trade for the Phillies, which is that the Twins will be unpredictable and move Span for lower-level prospects, which I can’t see happening. 

At the very least, the Phillies should be doing their due diligence about this. Span could be a bargain for them over the next three seasons, as opposed to free agents like Upton or Bourn, so the question is simple. 

Would you pursue Span? 

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MLB Free Agency 2013: Teams Ready to Break the Bank

The 2013 offseason could be one of the biggest free agent-spending frenzies that the MLB has seen in years.

With the likes of Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Dan Haren and so many more big names possibly hitting the free agent market, you can bet general managers will be opening their wallets to bolster their roster heading into the 2013 season.

We saw the Los Angeles Dodgers—led by Magic Johnson—break the bank towards the latter portion of the 2012 season, and I think you can expect them to be buyers again this offseason.

Let’s examine which MLB clubs are ready to spend some cash this offseason.

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25 Reasons the Philadelphia Phillies Will Win Another World Series by 2015

The end of the 2012 regular season was the culmination of an eerie, disappointing trend for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

They won the World Series in 2008 and it has been all down hill from there. In 2009, they blew their chance at a repeat title run against the New York Yankees. A year later, they were dispatched by the red-hot San Francisco Giants in the NLCS. The Phillies were booted from the postseason early in 2011 by the St. Louis Cardinals and in 2012, they missed it all together. 

Sure, it’s just a coincidence, but it makes you raise an eyebrow nonetheless. It wouldn’t be inaccurate to say that the Phillies are going in the wrong direction. They’re an older team paying aging veterans a ton of money. 

But I believe that this team can win another World Series title before the 2015 season—and beyond. It almost sounds crazy because of the way this team has been heading, but it wouldn’t be the first time. 

So as baseball takes a breather in the month of October in the city of Philadelphia for the first time since 2006, allow me to explain why it should be back in full force over the next three seasons and into the foreseeable future. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Players Who Should Be Replaced This Offseason

With the Phillies cleaning house this past July, there are several players on their current roster who should be replaced this offseason. That is exactly what is going to happen.

Some action has already begun and rumors are flying around Philadelphia. Look for even more Phillies roster moves to happen following the World Series.

If the Phillies want to make a serious run at a World Series title in 2013, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and company are going to have to do a lot of shuffling to their roster. Players will be replaced, released and some will find themselves unsigned by the Phillies this winter.

Here are five Phillies who are going to find themselves replaced in 2013, one way or the other.

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15 Most Famous World Series Moments in Philadelphia Phillies History

There aren’t many moments in sports more rewarding than winning the World Series. 

Just think about it for a moment. We’re talking about 30 teams, each of whom play the longest regular season in sports—162 games. The regular season spans six months, but in all reality, baseball never ends. 

It is a year-long cycle of hard work and dedication, so when that one moment finally comes—when a team wins the World Series—it is just a jubilant experience. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have been fortunate enough to get seven shots at the World Series and win two titles. I say “fortunate” because there are still teams without that elusive trophy. 

But the point is a little more simple than that: When teams get to the World Series, they’ll do anything it takes to win. That’s why some of baseball’s greatest moments are made in the Fall Classic, and the Phillies are no exception to the rule. 

Here are the Phillies’ 15 greatest World Series moments.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Is Darin Ruf a Legitimate Option in Left Field for 2013?

We watched as Darin Ruf put up ridiculous numbers for the Double-A Reading Phillies: .317 batting average, 93 runs, 38 home runs, 104 RBI and a .408 on-base percentage before getting called up to the Philadelphia Phillies.  

The 26-year old made his Phillies debut on Sept. 14 as a pinch hitter, and he became an everyday player from Sept. 25 until the end of the season on Oct. 3. In 12 major league games, Ruf hit .333 with three home runs and 10 RBI. He also had an impressive .351 on-base percentage.  

As the Phillies prepare for the offseason, the outfield seems to be where the team needs the most help. Rumors have been flying around as to which free agents can come in and help the Phillies return to the postseason in 2013.

Maybe B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn can take over in center field? Or what about adding Nick Swisher or Cody Ross to play the corner outfield spots?  What about Mr. Ruf?

Ruf has shown the ability to hit major league pitching, even if he did only have 33 at-bats. He has quick hands and a great approach to hitting. He isn’t your typical power hitter; he understands the strike zone.

Ruf walked 65 times in Double-A, which contributed heavily to his .408 on-base percentage. The Phillies need players who can get on base, and that’s what Ruf offers.

Ruf can provide a shot of life in a clubhouse that has been together for a while and could use some change. Ruf‘s youth and energy can light a fire under veterans like Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, who could both use some fire under them.

Filling the hole in left field with somebody already on the roster will benefit the Phillies in the offseason as well.  

If the team decides that Ruf can be the starting left fielder next season, that obviously eliminates the need to sign a high-priced free agent to put in left field.  

The team could use that money to sign a new center fielder, like B.J. Upton, and a setup man, like Mike Adams. Maybe the team could make a trade for a player like Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres. The options are out there, somebody just has to pull the trigger.

Darin Ruf has earned at least the opportunity to compete for the starting job in left field during spring training, and unless the Phillies sign or trade for a veteran, it could even be his job to lose.  

A young outfield of Darin Ruf, B.J. Upton and Domonic Brown sounds pretty intriguing.  

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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Philadelphia Phillies: Who Is Your Center Fielder? B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn?

With the 2012 offseason only a week or so away, Ruben Amaro Jr. and his staff will be looking to make a big offseason splash through free agency. Their number one priority being a top-tier center fielder.

When the Phillies shipped Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence out of town this past July, they did so to free up some money to rebuild their outfield for 2013 with players who display more consistency. After leaving Philadelphia, Victorino hit .245 and Pence hit .219—numbers that are anything but consistent.  

With center field being the Phillies’ biggest concern, they have their eyes set on the two of the most prized players at the position: former Phillie Michael Bourn and free-agent-to-be B.J. Upton. 

Bourn is a player who can bring excitement to the top of a batting order and also plays exceptional defense. He won Gold Glove awards in 2009 and 2010. If acquired, Charlie Manuel’s love affair with Jimmy Rollins batting leadoff will hopefully come to an end.

Bourn had a 2012 season that was mostly consistent with all of his career offensive numbers. He hit .274 while scoring 96 runs and led the NL in stolen bases with 42. He also finished the season seventh in walks with 70.

There are two major concerns with the Phillies acquiring Bourn. One being his amount of strikeouts.

Bourn struck out a career-high 155 times in 2012—not really an admirable quality for a leadoff hitter. However, his amount of walks somewhat balanced out his on-base percentage (.348).

The other concern is the amount of dollars Bourn is going to cost on the open market. Super agent Scott Boras represents Bourn and has a reputation for relentlessly pursuing top dollar for all of his clients. He and Ruben Amaro also don’t have the best history since the Ryan Madson deal blew up last offseason.

Bourn will turn 30 in December, and the Phillies don’t want to have another long contract with an aging player attached to it added to their ever-expanding payroll. The Phillies will seek a four- to five-year deal for Bourn, from anywhere between $10 and $15 million. 

Another top choice to man the center of the Phillies’ outfield in 2013 is 28-year-old former Tampa Bay Ray, B.J. Upton.

The two major differences between Upton and Bourn are Upton’s power and Bourn‘s Gold Glove defense. Both have good speed, strike out a lot and can bring a ton of energy to a team.

Upton hit 28 home runs in 2012 while batting just .242. Upton has not hit over .270 since 2008 and has consistently struck out at or around 160 times a season over his career. He has also never driven in more than 82 runs in a given season.

Could he produce more in Citizens Bank Park? Only time will tell.  

The Phillies are in desperate need of a right-handed power bat, but what they don’t need is another player with a low on-base percentage. Upton’s was only .298 in 2012, after only walking 45 times all season.

The Phillies have a lot of options to weigh. If they want right-handed, long-ball power and RBI production, the choice would be Upton.

If they want Gold Glove-caliber defense, with speed and a true leadoff hitter, the choice is Bourn.

Or they can go a totally different way and try to sign a player such as Angel Pagan.

My choice would be to bring back Michael Bourn and let him set the table for Utley, Howard and hopefully Darin Ruf. The Phillies are most likely going to overpay for him, but at the end of the day he may be the best fit for the Phillies.

He plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits for a decent average and is among the league leaders in walks and stolen bases. If the Phillies can help Bourn cut down on his strikeouts, Bourn could be an All-Star in 2013 and hopefully lead the Phillies back to the playoffs. 

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Chances of Each Top 25 Free Agent Ending Up with the Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have holes to fill this offseason and everyone knows it. 

Then again, it’s not much of a secret. This is a team that fell out of contention at last season’s trade deadline and moved a couple of nicely sized salaries off of the books to free up some space under the luxury tax. 

But they’re not going to roll over. There is too much invested in the players already on the payroll. The Phillies have the talent to complete, but if they truly want to contend, they’re going to need some help. 

Ruben Amaro Jr. and company are going to have to get creative to fill those holes. They’ll explore the trade market, but given the state of the Phillies’ payroll and farm system, I think it is much more likely that you will see a free agent signing or two. 

The Phillies have the money to make a splash, but will they? This slideshow will explore the possibility of the best of the free agent market signing with the Phillies this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Trading Lee, Halladay or Worley Necessary to Even Scale

The Philadelphia Phillies have approached the last two seasons trying to win a championship with a lopsided team.

Particularly in 2011, when “the Four Aces” were projected by many to win 80 games by themselves, the Phillies figured that if their pitchers held opponents down routinely, the diminished offensive output coming from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and the Phillies’ other aging core starters could be covered over.

It worked until 2012, and then it did not work at all. It turns out there are only so many days you can play Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry Jr. and Kevin Frandsen (and bat them near the middle of the order) without seeing the offense shrivel up and blow away.

So the Phillies enter this offseason with as many offensive positions in question as they have offensive positions solidly filled. Third base is a need, as is the entire outfield. Going into the 2013 season with Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown penciled in as starters would be inviting disaster. 

In past seasons, the Phillies were able to patch the holes in the lineup through free agency. Unfortunately, the more you look at the free-agent landscape this offseason, the less there is to like.

The headliners on offense are all outfielders. Josh Hamilton is probably the biggest name. His production is not in question. But can you remember an established superstar hitting free agency with more questions surrounding him than Hamilton? Put aside (if you can) his troubled past with drug use.

In the past four seasons with the Texas Rangers, Hamilton has missed an astonishing 157 games. Couple that with his underwhelming postseason numbers (.227 batting average, .414 slugging percentage) and the thought of guaranteeing Hamilton generational money looks as dubious as some of his life choices.

B.J. Upton will be available. He piles up three things: home runs, stolen bases and strikeouts (1,020 of them in 3,568 at-bats). His .256 career batting average compiled over seven seasons suggests that that is what he is. No question he has value; power/speed combo players like Upton are not plentiful. Is he worth five years and $80 million, though? 

Former Phillie Michael Bourn is out there, too. He is a two-time All-Star (most recently this season with the Atlanta Braves). But a lot of his value is tied up in his speed. He stole 42 bases this season; he was also caught a league-leading 13 times.

And the ongoing disaster that is Carl Crawford since he signed for seven years and $142 million is the cautionary tale that might make Bourn less attractive as a target for a long-term, long money deal.

So if the Phillies cannot just go shopping to fill their positions of need, they might need to part with assets in trades. As the team’s 2012 offensive performance exhibited, the Phillies do not have bats to deal.

They still have arms, though.

Cole Hamels is not going anywhere, not after signing a six-year, $144 million contract extension this summer. Understandably, the Phillies identified Hamels as a home-grown talent who the fans have an attachment to. He was the Most Valuable Player of the only World Series win this generation of Phillies fans has seen.

After Hamels, though, the Phillies do have some pieces. As tempting as it may be to have a rotation of Hamels/Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay/Vance Worley with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd holding down the fifth spot, it might be impractical given the team’s offensive needs.

This is not to suggest that any one of Lee, Halladay or Worley alone could bring back a young, inexpensive talent.

Lee is the best pitcher of the three; he is also owed the most money over the longest term ($75 million over the next three seasons). Halladay is in the last year of his current contract, but he will get $20 million this season, and he is coming off an indifferent season where he missed time with injury. Worley also had an iffy season and was also hurt. But he is only 25, and not even arbitration-eligible until 2014.

For that matter, the Phillies might want to dangle Cloyd and see if anyone has interest.

Until the World Series is over and teams are free to start signing players all the scenarios posited by baseball scribes are idle speculation. Will the Arizona Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton? Will the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim alleviate their logjam in the outfield and part with Peter Bourjos? That depends on what those teams are offered, obviously.

The point here is that the Phillies must be willing to break from their “pitching first” agenda to rebuild their everyday eight. Moving a big-name pitcher like Lee or Halladay, or an inexpensive option like Worley or even Cloyd, may be the best way to get where they need to go.

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