Philadelphia Phillies: The Best and Worst Things They Can Do This Offseason

No one knows for sure what the Phillies will do this offseason.  Will they be aggressive and make big, splashy moves?  Or will they play it conservative and attempt to both better the team now, but also maintain flexibility for the future?  After perhaps the most frustrating season in Phillies history, it’s hard to predict.

General manager Ruben Amaro has never been shy about making deals.  When he sets his sights on a player—either in free agency or the trade market—he gets him more often than not.  

When the Phillies traded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trading deadline, they did so with the intention to free up payroll space for the 2013 team.  While only upper management knows for sure how much the Phillies will budget for next season, any moves that are made need to be the right ones.

This winter, Amaro once again has the opportunity to show whether he’s a confident major league GM or if he’s, as some fans like to call him, “Clueless Rube.” 

With all due respect to the baseball lifer, here’s some advice: the three best and worst moves the Phillies could make this winter.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Unlikely Trades to Alter Baseball in South Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies have a payroll bordering on the obscene:  They owe tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed contracts to players who are unlikely to ever live up to them, have a rapidly aging roster and a rabid fanbase thirsty for another parade.

With all that going on—and a front office determined to continue filling seats at Citizens Bank Park—will the Phillies be able to significantly overhaul their roster while not missing a beat on the field?  

The odds say no, but if the events of the 2012 baseball season are any indication, nothing is impossible. Would anyone have believed the Red Sox could have moved as much payroll as they did?  

In this piece, I will examine a few outside-the-box trade ideas that will probably never occur, but that could dramatically reshape the Phillies’ roster for years to come.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Can Ryan Howard Return to Form in 2013?

When Ryan Howard ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final swing of the 2011 NLDS, a silence swept across Phillies nation like nothing heard since Joe Carter ripped a 2-2 Mitch Williams slider over the fence in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series.

Rumors swirled that Howard might never return and if he did, he never would be the player he once was.

When Howard returned to Philadelphia in early July of this past season, optimism began to pulse through the veins of Phillies fans. But through 71 games and 260 at-bats, Howard put together the worst campaign of his entire career, resulting in many fans believing that he shouldn’t have returned at all.

Howard finished the season batting just .219 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI. He also struck out a disgraceful 99 times, or 38 percent of his at-bats.

For his career prior to 2012 season, Howard struck out 1207 times in 3794 at-bats, or 31.8 percent. So he increased his strikeout ratio by over six percent in 2012. That may not seem like a drastic increase, but over a 600 at-bat season, that’s 36 more strikeouts.

One of the most fascinating statistics in Howard’s 2012 season was his batting average when actually making contact, or what I call “Batting Average By Contact” (BABC). Howard’s BABC in 2012 was .354. To find this number, I subtracted Howard’s number of strikeouts from his total at-bats, then divided the number of hits by this result.

260 AB – 99 K’s = 161 at-bats. Dividing Howard’s number of hits, 57, by 161 comes to a .354 average.

When Ryan Howard actually made contact in 2012, he batted .354, as compared to his .219 line with his strikeouts included. A remarkable statistic, to say the least, and something positive Phillies fans can draw from an otherwise disappointing 2012 season for Howard.

So what does all this mean?

If Ryan Howard can make more consistent contact, his offensive numbers across the board can dramatically increase. Hits, RBI, home runs, extra-base hits, everything. Which would ultimately lead to more Phillies wins. 

If new Phillies hitting coach Steve Henderson can decrease Ryan Howard’s strikeout rate by, say, 25-30 percent over a full season, Howard’s batting average would return to right around the .260-.270 range.

These statistics are far from an exact science, but from them we can see that when Ryan Howard does make contact, he has the potential to be one of the top hitters in baseball.

If Ryan Howard can decrease his number of strikeouts in 2013, he has the potential to return as one of the most dominant forces in all of baseball.

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A Realistic Look at the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies

After finishing the 2012 season with a disappointing 81-81 record, the Phillies enter perhaps their most chaotic offseason in recent memory. 

Are wholesale changes in order? Should they blow up the team and start over? Would pursing trades for Cliff Lee or any of their other high-priced veterans make sense?

Or should they write 2012 off as an aberration, a season lost to injuries and inconsistencies from those same high-priced veterans.

Logic tells us that blowing up the roster and starting over is impossible. 

With a roster filled with nearly untradable contracts—Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon—there’s no reasonable way the Phillies can completely alter the course they’re on. The only thing they can do is try to tweak the roster, to make subtle changes that result in enough improvements to offset any failings of its older stars.

Unlike last winter, heading into this offseason the Phillies are fairly certain of what they are. With the exception of Roy Halladay and Domonic Brown, there aren’t many questions regarding what to expect from most players on the roster. 

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, cornerstones of the franchise, are unlikely to either play a full season or produce like they have in the past—ever again.

The Phillies need outfield help in a big way, and could use a miracle to solve the issue at third base.

Their starting rotation will continue to be a strength of the team. Catcher Carlos Ruiz is the one of the best in the business, and the team’s young bullpen got a lot of experience down the stretch last season.

All that being said, this is how I realistically envision the 2013 Phillies team panning out.

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Each Philadelphia Phillies Player’s Greatest Tool from 2012

Even in a down season, professional baseball players typically excel in at least one area of their game. That’s one of the things that I personally enjoy about baseball: The fact that if you fail in one area, you have an opportunity to redeem yourself in another. 

The Philadelphia Phillies had a down season. This was a team with an A-list roster and World Series expectations that are now watching postseason baseball from its couches. 

But held within that poor season were a number of great performances. That’s part of what makes these players professionals—the ability to excel in at least one area of their game, even in an otherwise disappointing season. 

Baseball scouts like to break a player’s game down into “tools.” For the sake of this slideshow, we’ll be discussing two different types of players.

Positional players will be broken down into the popular “five tools:” The ability to hit for contact, the ability to hit for power, defense, speed and arm strength. 

For pitchers, we will discuss their best “tool” as their best pitch. 

So what tool did each player use best in 2012? Time to find out.

Resources: FanGraphs and BrooksBaseball

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Philadelphia Phillies: Watching Ghosts of Playoffs Past from Home

It is tough being a Phillies fan with the team out of the playoffs. But at least you are getting to watch some of your old favorites delivering more October magic.

Check out the sick air Jayson Werth got tonight after hitting a walk-off home run to save the Washington Nationals‘ season. Before Werth signed his seven-year, $126 million contract with the Nationals, he was the Phillies’ sneaky big-game performer.

In 40 games over four postseason runs (he was gone for last year’s National League Division Series loss against the St. Louis Cardinals), Werth hit 11 home runs, drove in 23 runs and scored 27 times. In other words, against postseason-caliber pitching, Werth hit at a clip that over a full season would be 44 home runs, 92 runs batted in and 108 runs scored.

This is not to say that the Phillies could or should have matched Werth‘s deal with the Nationals. For the most part, Werth‘s regular-season tenure with the Nationals has been forgettable. But there he was, with his team’s season on the line, delivering again.

The New York Yankees‘ season was not hanging in the balance in the bottom of the ninth in Game 3 of the American League Division Series with the Baltimore Orioles…but it was headed that way. Trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, in a series tied at one, future Hall of Famer turned Yankee fans’ whipping boy Alex Rodriguez was due to hit with one out.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi told Rodriguez to put his bat down and sit this one out. And up stepped…Raul Ibanez? That’s who Girardi wanted in place of a guy who made $30 million this season? A guy with 647 career home runs? (Regular season, of course, but still.)

Yup. And Ibanez, last seen patrolling left field in Citizens Bank Park the past three seasons (including three playoff runs), promptly made Girardi‘s daring call look prescient and brilliant all at once. Ibanez hit a home run to tie the game. That would have been enough…except Ibanez then hit the game-winning home run in the 12th inning.

Again, this does not mean that the Phillies made the wrong choice in letting Ibanez walk after last season. The Yankees had the flexibility to play Ibanez primarily against right-handed pitching; Ibanez’s game-tying blast last night came off right-handed closer Jim Johnson.

But for Phillies fans who doubtlessly remember Ibanez just missing a home run late in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS against the Cardinals, a home run that might have given the Phillies one more grasp at the title? It’s tough.

And yes, Kyle Lohse‘s Cardinals team lost today on that aforementioned Werth blast, but he could hardly be faulted. Lohse went seven innings and gave up one run on two hits. For Phillies fans who still remember Lohse giving up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui of the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, well, this guy is basically unrecognizable.

Of course, when he’s hitting .125 in the postseason like he is now, so is Hunter Pence…but there he is, headed to the National League Championship Series with the San Francisco Giants.

Or, as Phillies fans would say, Pence is headed to the NLCS one year too late.

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Offseason Advice to Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro: Stand Pat

This offseason, Ruben Amaro needs to do something he’s never done before: proceed with caution.  Since taking over as Phillies GM following the 2008 World Series championship, Amaro has been known more for the bold, splashy moves than the under-the-radar ones.  He’s jumped in and set the market, signing big-money free agents like Raul Ibanez and Jonathan Papelbon and trading for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Hunter Pence among others.

None of it has worked so far.  

Even with a seemingly endless budget from ownership, Amaro has not gotten the Phillies over the plateau again.  While the big-money, big-name players have produced some of the best summers ever remembered by Phillies fans, they have repeatedly come up short in October.  While the blame for the postseason failures does not fall squarely on Amaro’s shoulders (Charlie Manuel can be more influential to the team, good or bad, in a short series), he is not without blame.

The 2012 disaster deserves equal blame among the two men—both for the construction of the roster (too top-heavy, not enough emphasis on specific aspects of the game—bullpen, bench, defense) and the game plan throughout the season (the asinine non-usage of Papelbon in tie games, the failure to adapt the lineup, the mismanagement of the bullpen).  However, this is still a good team at its core.  It does not need a big splash, something done with an eye both on immediately improving the team and selling tickets.

In other words, the Phillies do not need to break the bank to sign Josh Hamilton.  Doing so might make them more formidable in 2013, but would set the franchise back several years.  A good comparison is the Hunter Pence trade; the Phillies did not need Hunter Pence in 2011, and as it turned out they weren’t much better because he was in the lineup.  However, the Phillies saw an opportunity to improve the team and re-energize the fan-base, and jumped on it.  All it cost them were a few of their better prospects, who could now be offered in exchange for a player like Chase Headley without completely bankrupting the system.

Amaro needs to operate with restraint this offseason; he needs to look at the big, long-term picture (and not just in terms of staying under the luxury tax threshold, or as they love to say: “cost certainty”.)  

The Phillies do need help.  They need an outfielder or two, more veteran presence in the bullpen, and perhaps even another starting pitcher.  They need to figure out what to do at third base, whether or not Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will ever be the players the Phillies built their team around, and to finally realize that they are not the team of 2008/2009, when they could out-slug everyone.  

The Phillies need to stay away from the big-name players, the ones who are going to sign enormous contracts that can’t be moved if the player doesn’t live up to expectations.  Hamilton, BJ Upton or Michael Bourn patrolling center-field would be a mistake.  Amaro should concentrate his efforts on bringing in players like Shane Victorino or Angel Pagan, players whose lower production levels won’t be enough to justify the difference in potential contracts of the top three.  They need to sign a couple of veteran relievers—Ryan Madson, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Adams come to mind—and perhaps add an innings-eating starter.

But what the Phillies do not need is Amaro to be Amaro.  They do not need him to make a big splash, to shock the baseball world with a big signing or trade.  They need him to take a page out of his predecessor’s book and stand pat.  This Phillies team is good enough to win the World Series with a few minor tweaks.  And if Amaro manages to control himself this offseason, the Phillies will be better off long-term.

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6 Keys for the Philadelphia Phillies to Be a Contender Next Season

81-81.

The definition of average.

The 2012 Phillies underachieved. Bad defense, poor situational hitting, injury, bad luck and poor relief pitching all contributed to the team’s demise.

Can they bounce back in 2013? Can they contend with young teams like the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves in their own division?

They can, but there are six key areas where things must go right for the Phillies in order for the team to make this season just a blip on the radar and return to the playoffs once again.

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2012 MLB Trade Market: Could Dexter Fowler Be the Next Phillies Center Fielder?

The Phillies will be testing the free-agent market hard in 2012 to find their 2013 center fielder.

If they cannot lock down a free-agent signing like Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton, the Phillies may have to look into making a trade to acquire a player to fill the hole Shane Victorino left.

A team that matches up perfectly with what the Phillies need and what they have at their disposal are the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies are in desperate need of starting pitching depth, and that is exactly what the Phillies have in their farm system.

The Phillies’ minor league affiliates are loaded with pitchers who are only a year or two away from contributing at the major league level.

They also have pitchers on the current major league roster who are now disposable because of that depth. Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick could both be made available if necessary.

Right now, the Phillies have prospects Tyler Cloyd, Jesse Biddle, Brody Colvin, Trevor May, Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin who will fill up the rotations for Triple-A Lehigh Valley and Double-A Reading. That is some serious depth.

Biddle, Martin and Pettibone will most likely not be traded. The three of them and Cloyd will battle out for the last two spots in the rotation next season if Worley and Kendrick struggle or find themselves traded.

Kendrick’s value may be the highest it ever will be, so moving him now isn’t the worst idea. Worley will be a much tougher sell since he is coming off an injury that will require offseason surgery. 

If a combination of two of these pitchers and some other player of a lower tier can score a major league talent like Dexter Fowler, the Phillies may want to consider it.

Fowler is coming off his best season as a professional. He hit .300 with 13 HR, 53 RBI and 72 runs scored. One issue with Fowler is that his splits playing at home in Colorado are much better than his splits on the road.

If the Phillies can’t land a big-time free agent, they may have to take a long look at Dexter Fowler and other trade possibilities.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Fans Rooting Against Yankees, Cardinals, Giants

In 2010, after having the sickening privilege of watching the favored Phillies lose a deciding Game 6 of the National League Championship Series at home to what seemed like an only decent San Francisco Giants side, I tweeted “I’m not a baseball fan. I’m a Phillies fan.” I did not see a single pitch of the 2010 postseason after that game. I heard it went pretty well for the Giants though.

In 2011, I again lucked into watching the Phillies’ playoff demise. This time, the Phillies managed to lose 1-0 in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Ryan Howard folding up in a pain-wracked ball while making the last out was just icing on the putrid cake. Phillies fans did not know for certain then that Howard’s injury would impact the 2012 Phillies. But we had a sense it would not help.

And now here we are. The playoffs are well underway and the Phillies, for the first time since 2006, are nowhere to be found. With reference to playoff baseball, I find myself struggling to find a reason to watch or to care. Maybe you have a similar problem.

So I am turning to the oldest and best-known cure for this sort of malaise. If I cannot watch the Phillies win, at least maybe I can watch some teams I don’t like lose.

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