5 Reason Why You Should Keep Watching the Philadelphia Phillies in 2012

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ performance in 2012 have caused many Phillies fans across the nation to turn off their TVs. Finding anything positive about the 2012 Phillies has been almost as difficult as spotting a shooting star across the Philadelphia skyline. Don’t tune out those TVs just yet; there are a few Phillies who are battling for their future with the organization.

The laundry list of Phillies injuries in 2012 have allowed some players to get more playing time. Some of these players are playing so well, they may be playing themselves into a job for 2013.

Here are five reasons why you should continue to watch the Phillies here in 2012. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Prospects Who Can Play Way into Starting Role This Fall

Now that it’s practically safe to say the Philadelphia Phillies are out of any sort of playoff race, what may ensue between now and the end of the season is a series of positional tryouts, per se.

After the Phillies traded Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants, two of the team’s starting outfield spots instantly became free for the taking. Add in Joe Blanton being sent to the Dodgers in a waiver trade, and yet another hole opened up on the Phillies’ roster.

In the light of the team’s recent transactions, the Phillies are essentially holding a positional tryout. There’s currently a center field, right field, and starting pitching job up for grabs, with third base and left field also likely to see new faces next season.

Players like former top prospect Domonic Brown, recently-acquired Nate Schierholtz, longtime swingman Kyle Kendrick and recently-promoted Kevin Frandsen are being used to fill the holes in the lineup…for now.

When free agency hits, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. will have to take each of the aforementioned players’ post-trade deadline play into account and must determine whether he has to make any free-agent signings or trades to turn the Phillies into a contender once again.

But what about prospects? Granted, the Phillies’ farm system has been thinned due to acquisitions made over the last few years. And while the Phillies were sellers this year after being buyers in years past, their farm system still remains bleak even with the acquisitions of prospects Tommy Joseph and Ethan Martin, and minor leaguer Seth Rosin.

But there are a few bright spots in the Phillies’ minor leagues, including some who could impact the big league club sooner rather than later. They will also be granted tryouts this year, either sometime later this month or as a September call-up when rosters expand from 25 players to 40.

Here’s a look at five of those prospects who could make a nice impression in a major league tryout this year and work their way into a future starting job. And just so you know, no relievers will be listed in this slideshow, as this is about prospects playing their way into starting roles. Since bullpen pitchers do not start unless they’re named Raul Valdes, they will be excluded from this slideshow.

 

*All prospect rankings are courtesy of 2012 Baseball America Prospect Handbook unless otherwise noted.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Unprecedented Expensive Failure a Mystery to Fans

It is always about the money.

In fact, the minute someone ever says to you, “it’s not about the money,” you know that person is lying.

For the Phillies in 2012, who must now be asking themselves why the fanbase is teetering toward forsaking them, the answer is in the dollars.

This season, the Phillies have the highest payroll in the National League, but are languishing in the bottom half of the league standings.

The reason this is such a problem for the Phillies is that this result is the worst of the four possible results you can have as a professional sports franchise with reference to the relationship between cost and results.

Boiling it down to its essence, a pro sports team’s season can be characterized in one of four ways: an inexpensive success, an expensive success, an inexpensive failure, or an expensive failure.

Having spent over $173M for a team that projects to win fewer than 80 games, it is pretty clear that this Phillies team is an expensive failure.  Compounding the problem for the Phillies is that, for the fans, the concept of expensive failure is nearly impossible to grasp and even tougher to accept.

Phillies fans have long been conditioned to dealing with inexpensive failures.

The 1990 Phillies had only three players making more than $1M that season.  That those three players were Von Hayes, Roger McDowell and Dickie Thon probably goes a long way toward explaining how the 1990 Phillies finished 77-85, fourth place in the National League East.

The 1995 Phillies were 20th in payroll in all of Major League Baseball, and a top-heavy payroll at that.  Big deals were given to Darren Daulton and Lenny Dykstra in the hangover from the 1993 pennant-winning team.  They finished 69-75 in a truncated 1995 season following the 1994 players’ strike that cost the sport a World Series.

In 2000, the Phillies were—again—20th in payroll in MLB.  They finished 65-97, dead last in the National League East.

In each of those instances, while the team’s performance was fairly dismal, it could not have been deemed unexpected. 

In 1990, the team was seven years removed from its last playoff appearance with little hope on the horizon.  In 1995, the 1993 National League Championship team had already begun proving that its surprising run was more miracle than explicable result; the 1994 Phillies were 54-61 when the strike ended the season.  In 2000, as in 1990, the team was seven years on from playoff baseball, again with little-to-no hope of quick improvement.

Those seasons were, comparatively speaking, inexpensive failures.

Inexpensive successes are, understandably, rare.  The closest you can come to that for the Phillies in the past two decades was the 1993 team, which was a collection of spare parts that somehow became a greater whole.  The temptation is to look at the 2007 team the same way, but that would be inaccurate: the 2007 team had eight players making more than $5M, including the ungodly $10M paid to Freddy Garcia. 

From that point forward, the past four teams would have to be considered expensive successes.  While the team’s playoff performances ultimately disappointed after 2008, four consecutive defenses of the National League East title cannot be seen as failure.  They came at a cost, though: $98M in 2008, $113M in 2009, $141M in 2010 and $172M in 2011.

And now this.  For a franchise that had, before the middle of the past decade, traditionally thrown nickels around like they were manhole covers, the 2012 team represented an even further extension of capital toward reclaiming the pennant, or even perhaps the world championship.

Perhaps it is not the franchise’s first expensive failure, but in terms of degree it is certainly the most drastic.

That is why the fanbase does not know what to do.  Phillies fans can understand the franchise not spending money and losing a lot of games.  They have experienced the thrill of a “cheap” team unexpectedly overachieving.  Surely, anyone could identify the correlation between the piles of money spent for the past five years and the team’s success.

The question the fans have now is, if the Phillies spent $173M on this team and got this result, could it happen again?  Will they continue to throw money into the team at this rate?

If it were your money, would you?

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Time for the Philadelphia Phillies to Pull the Plug on John Mayberry Jr.

After John Mayberry Jr. finished his 103rd game of the season going 0-for-5 against the St. Louis Cardinals, it’s time for Charlie Manuel to pull the plug on what has became a terrible experiment.

John Mayberry Jr. is not, and never will be, an everyday major league player. He is batting a measly .228 in 276 at-bats, with an even more pathetic 26 RBI. His OPS is .656, which is one of the worst lines in baseball for a player with over 250 at-bats.

John also provides no threat on the base paths and his defense has been anything but stellar, taking terrible, lazy routes and misjudging multiple balls he should have caught. 

Mayberry is thought to hit left-handed pitching well, but on the season he is hitting only .263. A mediocre average for a major league hitter. Those numbers look great compared to his splits against right-handed pitching, .209 with 51 strikeouts in only 153 at-bats. It can’t get much worse than that.

The more playing time John receives, the worse he plays. Pitchers have recognized his flaws and are exploiting them. The holes in his swing are far to great to give him an everyday job.

Phillies management need to recognize what they have in Mayberry, which is a fourth or fifth outfielder who only plays against left-handed pitching.

If Mayberry does not wish to accept the fifth outfield role, then the Phillies and John should part ways. There simply is no room on a $170 million roster for a starting outfielder with no upside. John will turn 29 in December and the clock is ticking on is time in Philadelphia.   

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Odds for Each of Phillies’ Top 25 Prospects Being Called Up on September 1

The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t want to be in a position to evaluate talent for the future in the month of September because it would mean that they were on the outside looking in at the postseason race.

Now that they’re nearly 20 games out of first place in the National League East and double-digits out of the Wild Card race, however, that’s exactly the position that they find themselves in.

Though a lot of the Phillies’ top talent is in the lower levels of the farm system and slowly moving its way towards the MLB, there are still some exciting prospects in the upper levels of the system. Without a doubt, the Phillies will be giving some of these guys an audition in September, but who?

The following list will place odds on each prospect’s chances of receiving a September call-up this season. Ranking the prospects is not a focal point of this list. Instead, it attempts to handicap each prospect’s chances of being in the MLB on September 1.

The 2012 season may be a lost cause for most of the veterans on the Phillies roster, but for some of the prospects waiting on the doorstep, the journey is just beginning.

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Philadelphia Phillies: 5 Ways to Come Back Even Stronger in 2013

After winning five consecutive National League East titles, it’s hard to imagine the Philadelphia Phillies deciding to completely rebuild after just one down season.

Especially with a payroll in excess of $170 million.

So if the Phillies decide not to start over from scratch, and are even willing to push their payroll past the $178 million luxury-tax threshold, their best option is to use this offseason to come back even stronger in 2013 in hopes of having a season more reminiscent of 2011 than 2012.

But how do the Phils do that?

Do they trade Cliff Lee, or do they keep their three aces at the top of their starting rotation?  Do they spend big on a free-agent third baseman or scan the trade market for their next acquisition?  Just how many new outfield starters do they even need?

These are the types of questions that the Phils must answer this offseason in order to guard against another season like the one they are currently having.

Here are five ways the Phillies can come back stronger in 2013.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Has Charlie Manuel Finally Worn out His Welcome?

In 2005, Charlie Manuel replaced Philadelphia Phillies legend Larry Bowa as the manager of a team with a rabid fanbase in desperate search of a World Series victory.

In his first season as skipper, Manuel led the Phillies to an 88-74 record, missing the playoffs by only one game.

The Phillies just missed the playoffs again in 2006, but in 2007, Manuel kept his team focused enough to go 23-11 over their final 34 games and overtake the New York Mets in order to win their first division title since 1993.

Then, in 2008, Charlie Manuel found his way into the hearts of Philadelphia fans forever by leading the Phillies to their second-ever World Series win; their first since 1980.

Manuel will forever be known as the coach who led the team that broke Philadelphia’s “Curse of William Penn.” But, is it time for the Phillies to move on from Uncle Charlie?

The Phillies have made the playoffs in every year since 2007, a streak that, barring a miracle, will end this year. The team is getting a bit of a makeover—trading Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton and likely moving on from Placido Polanco in the offseason. Now may be the best time to change managers.

Manuel is under contract through the 2013 season, so the Phillies would have to buy him out if they choose to move on, and that’s exactly what they should do.

Manuel’s loyalty to his players has gotten in the way of the team’s success.

In September of last season, Manuel left his starting pitchers in for what many fans believed was too long.  

 

Cliff Lee averaged about 106 pitches in five starts last September, and when it was his turn to pitch in the NLDS against the Cardinals, Lee gave up five earned runs in six innings.

Had Lee been used with more caution in September, would he have been in better shape to pitch well in October?

Manuel’s loyalty to shortstop Jimmy Rollins is another issue that Philadelphia fans have with their 68-year-old manager.

Manuel repeatedly states that Rollins is his leadoff hitter, despite the fact that the Phillies went out and signed prototypical leadoff man Juan Pierre in the offseason.

Rollins is hitting .245 this season and has an on-base percentage of .304. Pierre is hitting .307 and has a .349 on-base percentage.  

Not that hitting Pierre at leadoff would have made the Phillies a playoff team this year, but based on statistics, Pierre clearly should be at the top of the order every game.

Under Manuel, the Phillies have relied on the home run ball to carry their offense. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out of the lineup for the majority of the season, it became clear that Manuel could not adjust to a team that wasn’t full of power hitters; he refused to play small ball.

Manuel’s loyalty to Rollins as a hitter and his inability to play small ball both showed in the Phillies’ August 12th game against the Cardinals.  

It was a 7-7 game in the bottom of the 11th and Erik Kratz was on second with nobody out. Jimmy Rollins came to the plate in a clear bunt situation, but Manuel allowed him to swing the bat. Rollins hit a chopper to the left side of the infield and Kratz was called out at third.

The Phillies went on to win that game, but they could have very easily not have scored in the 11th.  

It’s time for the Phillies to bring in a manager that has no loyalty to these players. Someone who can come in next season and play the best players in optimal spots in the lineup.

The man for the job is already in the Phillies system.  

Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg is the manager of the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.  

Sandberg was named the 2011 Minor League Manager of the Year by Baseball America after leading the IronPigs to their first-ever playoff appearance and the International League championship series.

Despite a relatively weak farm system for the Phillies, Sandberg has the IronPigs in the thick of the playoff race again this season.

Charlie Manuel will forever be a Philadelphia hero, but it’s time to move on. It’s time to get younger players and a younger manager. It’s time for the Ryne Sandberg era to begin.

 

Follow @TimStoeckle on Twitter

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The Luxury Tax and the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2013 Offseason

First, let’s get a fundamental, working understanding of the most significant player in the upcoming free agent pool for the Philadelphia Phillies: the luxury tax.

A team’s payroll includes more than just player salaries. Things like travel expenses, Social Security, pensions, postseason pay, medical benefits, and several other elements factor into the luxury tax equation.

As far as salaries go, each player has an average annual value (AAV) that is based on the average of the amount of guaranteed money in his contract. If the AAVs of every player on a team’s 40-man roster exceeds $178M, that team will have to pay the luxury tax.

That might sound complicated; but, it’s not that simple, especially when trying to forecast the Phillies’ payroll, and then trying to determine their best free agency options in the upcoming offseason.

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News projected the 2013 Phillies’ roster operating under the luxury tax in an interesting way. Based on his analysis, below is the Phillies’ lineup with their salaries, and their AAV in parenthesis. Those with an asterisk are estimates based on upcoming arbitration.

Starting Lineup:

C: Carlos Ruiz, $5M ($3.375M)

1B: Ryan Howard, $20M ($25M)

2B: Chase Utley, $15M ($12.1M)

3B: Empty

SS: Jimmy Rollins, $11M, ($9.5M)

LF: Nate Schierholtz, $2.75M ($2.75M)*

CF: Empty

RF: Dominic Brown, $.480M*

Bench:

1. Laynce Nix, $1.35M ($1.25M)

2. John Mayberry, Jr., $.515M ($.515M)

3. Empty

4. Empty

5. Empty

Starting Rotation:

1. Roy Hallday, $20M ($20M)

2. Cliff Lee, $25M, ($24M)

3. Cole Hamels, $24M ($24M)

 

4. Vance Worley, $.515M ($.515M)*

5. Kyle Kendrick, $4.5M ($3.75M)

 

Bullpen:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, $13M ($12.5M)

2. Antonio Bastardo, $1.5M ($1.5M)*

3. Josh Lindblom, $.515M ($.515M)*

4. Jake Diekman, $.495 ($.495)*

5. Empty

6. Empty

7. Empty

Based on philly.com’s Matt Gelb’s analysis, let’s assume the Phillies’ other expenses that will count against the luxury tax will include $10.5M on benefits, $2.5M on the rest of the 40 man roster’s AAVs, and $2M on bonuses (for awards, All-Star appearances, etc.).

So, going into the 2013 offseason, all things considered, Ruben Amaro, Jr. and the Phillies will have $157.5M already against the $178M luxury tax. That leaves them with $20.5M to invest in free agency.

With that $20.5M, the Phillies need a third baseman, a center fielder, three bench players, and three arms in the bullpen.

Now, I am in no way qualified to project MLB free agent contracts, or to determine which minor league players should be called up, but I am going to give it a shot.

Let’s address the pitching needs first, since this is the area where the Phillies’ farm system is most abundant.

I’m sending Kyle Kendrick to the bullpen, and calling up Justin De Fratus or Phillippe Aumont to join him.

There are three names, one of whom would replace Kendrick in the rotation. They are: Trevor May, Jonathan Pettibone, and Tyler Cloyd. My money is on Jonathan Pettibone. Trevor May is having a rough year, and Cloyd throws between 85 and 90mph, which isn’t hard enough for the MLB. I’m not too sure his minor league success would translate to the big leagues. But, I think he definitely deserves a shot.

Now, we’ll address the three empty bench spots by giving Tyson Gillies and his .295/.375/.448 a shot. He’s fast, and he’s not having a terrible year in the minors. Plus, we need money for free agents.

Also, we’ll Keep Erik Kratz as our backup catcher, and assume he’ll continue to make something around the league minimum after arbitration.

We still need a utility man. So, I’m going to propose keeping Freddy “The Juice” Galvis around to fill that void on the bench. He’s an outstanding defensive player, and his bat was starting to come around before he got suspended for using PEDs. I’ve taken that into consideration.

With these moves, we’re assuming that the players who are eligible for arbitration stay somewhere around the league minimum. In that case, we have about $2.5M more against our $157.5M, and we’ve plugged five holes.

Now, we turn our attention to free agency. We have $18M so spend on players for the 2013 roster.

The free agent outfielder market is pretty deep, but the most logical choice for the Phillies is Cody Ross.

Ross rakes at CBP, and he is currently outperforming his one year, $3M deal with the Red Sox.

I could see him coming to Philadelphia for three or four years, at something between $6M and $8M. So, we’ll split the difference and make it $7M.

Mind you, this is a speculative, best-case scenario. So, we have $11M to spend on a third baseman and an arm.

At third base, Kevin Youkilis has a $13M club option for 2013, which I don’t see the White Sox picking up. So, let’s say he hits the market, and in the best-case scenario, he wants $8M-$10M. Again, we’ll split the difference and say he’s asking $9M, and the Phillies sign him.

We now have $2M left to spend on the bullpen, or we can keep Jeremy Horst around. I’d recommend offering Peter Moylan $2M. But, who knows if that’s acceptable? There’s really not much flexibility here.

 

In summation, with these kinds of moves, and a healthy 2013 lineup, the Phillies could be back in NL East contention.

Players like Cody Ross and Kevin Youkilis are the kinds of contributors the Phillies haven’t had all year: solid players who know what it takes to win games.

Now, I am not a major league GM. But, if the figures I’ve assembled here are anything close to accurate, I don’t see the Phillies having many other options for the future. Unless, of course, Cliff Lee is traded.

Then, we’d have a whole new ball game. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Mix of Stars and Scrubs Are an Optical Illusion

Most nights, for an inning or so, it all still makes sense—the Philadelphia Phillies still look like the Phillies.

Friday night’s game, for example, saw Roy Halladay take the ball.  He gave up a solo home run to Carlos Beltran in the first inning, but after that he was really excellent and never in any serious trouble.

Just how you remember it. 

The Phillies’ first four batters in the game were Jimmy Rollins, Juan Pierre, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  Four legitimate major league baseball players, two former National League Most Valuable Players. 

Or to put it another way, an aggregate of over $47 million in salary to four hitters.

Save for the occasions when Jonathan Papelbon ($11 million) comes in at the end of the game (as he did Friday night), that is where the similarities to the Phillies you remember ends.

After Howard on Friday night, the next four hitters in the Phillies’ lineup—the team that led the National League in run differential going away in 2011—were Domonic Brown, Nate Schierholtz, Erik Kratz and Kevin Frandsen.

Or to put it another way, an aggregate of far, far less than $47 million in salary to four hitters.  Actually, far less than $4.7 million, as only Schierholtz is making more than $1 million this season.

Three games out of five, you still get to watch Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels pitch.  You are no doubt well aware of their significant contracts.  Hamels is getting by on $15 million this season before his lucrative extension kicks in.  Halladay and Lee are being paid $20 million and $21.5 million, respectively, this season.

Trouble is, once they stop pitching and before (if) Papelbon pitches, the pitching staff, like the back half of the lineup, gets tough to recognize.

Antonio Bastardo is still there, but after him, so many of the names and faces are so hard to place.  Could you pick Josh Lindblom, B.J. Rosenberg or Jeremy Horst out of a lineup?  You might be the only one.

Going back to Friday night, the last four position players in the lineup combined to go 3-for-12, all of the hits singles, with one run batted in (Brown) and no runs scored.

Utley bailed the offense out with a mammoth home run to deep right center field in the bottom of the eighth inning.  Rollins, standing on third base when Utley struck it, simply smiled and pointed skyward.  And again, it felt like old times, if only for a moment.

All the while, an announced crowd of 43,122 (98.8 percent capacity, if you care) did what it has done for the past five successful seasons.  It sat idly when things were going poorly, it roused when the Phillies threatened, it willed some big outs from Halladay.  Then it erupted when Utley played the hero.

This, then, is how the remainder of your 2012 Phillies season is likely to play out.

Even though the team’s playoff hopes are all but dead, the park is going to be plenty full for many of the remaining home dates…because the money is already spent on the tickets.  That money is not coming back, either, at least not on StubHub or eBay.  The tickets have been devalued by the team’s poor play.

In the past, the choice was often just to stay home and eat the tickets.  But when the cheapest seat in the stadium costs $20 (and with so many seats already bought for so much more) it is much harder to justify watching the game on television or, for that matter, going out and doing something else. 

That would mean burning entertainment dollars twice on the same night.

So on the surface, then, the 2012 Phillies continue to look sort of like the Phillies teams of the recent past: plenty of people in the seats, big names in the lineup and for most games, big names on the mound.

Looking closer, though, it does not take long to notice that these Phillies are not the genuine article.

You usually know by the middle of the second inning.

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Why Michael Bourn Is Not a Good Option for the Phillies

In order to contend in the future, the Philadelphia Phillies have a few critical weaknesses they need to address. ESPN’s Buster Olney states that the Phillies are interested in Michael Bourn as the answer to many of the team’s questions about the future. But, bringing him to Philadelphia would be counterproductive to any effort Ruben Amaro, Jr. could make in getting the Phillies back into contention.

For starters, Michael Bourn is going to be 30 years old next year. He’s also represented by Scott Boras, who will undoubtedly make Bourn appear to be worth much more than he actually is, and that will probably be somewhere in the $15 million to $20 million range. The Phillies need to get younger in a fiscally responsible way.

If the Phils are to make a comeback in 2013, they need to produce more runs. In a perfect world, they would sign Melky Carbrera to a reasonable contract, and he would bat third. But, that’s probably not in the cards.

Instead, the Phillies need to consider other options that would plug the holes in their batting order and enable more runners to cross home plate. A good way to do this would be through the acquisition of a solid leadoff man, which is what Michael Bourn is billed to be.

But, there are areas of concern when evaluating Bourn’s potential role with the Phillies.

A leadoff man is supposed to get on base. Michael Bourn’s .347 OBP thus far is 58th in the majors. He also strikes out fairly often. This year, he has been called out on strikes 110 times. That’s the fourth most among major league outfielders. With two more, he’d be tied for second.

The Phillies are already one of baseball’s most undisciplined teams at the plate, which has been detrimental to their offense this year. Signing Michael Bourn could potentially exacerbate this situation.

Some may say that Bourn makes up for these flaws in his game with his ability to steal bases. But, he won’t be as effective in this regard for much longer. He is, after all, about to be 30. Players slow down with age. In fact, Bourn isn’t even among the top three leaders in base stealing. So, even though that may be a big part of his game, he’s not the best, and it’s not a part worth $20 million.

At best, Michael Bourn is a good, solid, everyday outfielder on any ballclub. But, there are far too many problems that would make it very difficult to justify bringing him to Philadelphia, especially for the kind of money he’s going to want. Even if he was to make himself affordable, would he be a good fit? Would he be one of the missing pieces of the Phillies’ puzzle?

Probably not.

Michael Bourn doesn’t get on base enough, hardly has any power, is only batting .289, isn’t the game’s best base stealer and he’s getting older. If he comes to Philadelphia, by 2014 or 2015, the Phillies are going to have far too much money wrapped up in far too many old players.

So, seeing Michael Bourn in red pinstripes is a nightmarish offseason scenario. 

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