5 Things the Phillies Still Need to Do Before the Start of Spring Training

The Philadelphia Phillies have been busy this offseason—just not in the way that most fans might have wanted.

Shopping in a free-agent market featuring great hitters like Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson, the Phillies came away with Marlon Byrd.

Top-tier starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ervin Santana and A.J. Burnett remain unsigned, but the Phillies appear unlikely to go back into the piggy bank after signing lesser-light Roberto Hernandez.

To be fair, the Phillies probably did not save enough money to land any of those big-name players by whacking Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews.

So what is left for the Phillies to accomplish before the buses leave Citizens Bank Park for Clearwater, Fla., and spring training? Let’s take a look.

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Odds of Top Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Making 2014 Opening Day Roster

With spring training just around the corner as pitchers and catchers report by Feb. 13, baseball’s offseason talk moves from transactions and the Hall of Fame to the new season ahead.

Along with that transition comes the discussion of who will make teams’ rosters out of spring training, and while that sometimes can be almost set before a baseball is thrown, it’s rarely the case.

For the Philadelphia Phillies, that possibility is probably more true than false, although there are still some openings to be determined. The bullpen is still shaky, the rotation’s fourth member has yet to be officially named and third base remains a tossup.

While there are incumbents at each of those positions who could handle the starting duties, surprise runs of dominance in spring training could change each incumbent’s status.

On Jan. 8, Matt Gelb of Philly.com reported that Phillies top prospects Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle would be invited to big league camp, which is generally a sign that those players will surface in the majors at some point in 2014. The only question is when that will happen during the season. If they play their cards right, like some of the Phillies’ other top prospects, they stand a better chance at defying the odds and cracking the Opening Day roster.

However, this slideshow only covers those prospects who have a legitimate shot at making the Phillies’ roster to start the season. Prospects at levels such as Single-A will not be considered. In addition, in includes those prospects who have yet to make their major league debuts, meaning that players such as Ethan Martin and Cesar Hernandez will be excluded.

Here are the Phillies’ top prospects’ odds of doing just that.

 

*All prospect rankings courtesy of Baseball America’s 2014 Top 10 Phillies Prospects list.

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Philadelphia Phillies Send Polarizing Pundit Chris Wheeler to Eternal Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies announced recently that Chris Wheeler would no longer be a part of their television broadcast team.

When word broke that the Phillies had sold their broadcast rights to Comcast SportsNet, it put even long-term employees like Wheeler in the cross-hairs. Old employees and new bosses rarely mix, and Wheeler’s 37 years of service did not save him an ungainly end.

Wheeler’s tendency to inspire either sincere respect and admiration, or genuine aggravation and disgust in his audience members probably did not help him when the corporate masters started to sharpen the ax.

Wheeler’s sins in the booth were legion, but some of the prevalent ones (to this writer) were: 

• consistently overstating the obvious, like how a ground out to the shortstop with a man on second and nobody out is a bad baseball play  
• attesting that all hitters want is for the umpire to call a consistent strike zone, even if it means that some “balls” will be strikes and vice versa that night (which is a ridiculous argument by the way—if an umpire calls a pitch three inches off the outside corner a strike forty times in a given game, he made forty mistakes in that game, not one or none)
• asserting that the relief pitcher who just came into a two-on, two-out jam in a tie game “needs to throw strikes”
• breathlessly intoning after a Major League Baseball player made a just-above-average play look easy that, “man, these guys are just so good”

Wheeler had so many of these verbal tics and crutches that a dozen or so were beautifully memorialized on a bingo card that is the epitome of excellence in so many ways.

Even after his firing, the indignities keep being heaped on Wheeler.

94 WIP radio host Angelo Cataldi recently remarked that Wheeler’s greatest moment as a Phillies broadcaster was the last out of the 2008 World Series because Wheeler pumped his fists quietly and stayed out of Harry Kalas’ way.

And based on the fact that former Phillies closer Brad Lidge (who got that last out Kalas described) has already turned the job down according to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, it appears that Wheeler was fired without a replacement ready to go.

Ouch.

You know things are bad when ESPN’s Keith Olbermann is the one who rides to your defense.

Olbermann’s biggest gaffe in chiding the Phillies for firing Wheeler was referring to him as “the link to the glory days of Rich Ashburn and Harry Kalas.” Speaking Wheeler’s name in the same breath with Kalas and Ashburn is sacrilege. As Wheeler proved, being around greatness a lot does not make it rub off.

Additionally, it was actually the network that let Wheeler go, according to Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press. Olbermann knows a thing or two about that.

Despite all this, it is sad to see Wheeler dumped so unceremoniously. Did he occasionally make the Phillies broadcast his baseball pulpit? Yes he did. Was he sometimes annoying? Also yes.

But the names being tossed around as Wheeler’s possible replacement, occasional broadcasters like former Phillies, Ricky Bottalico and Chris Coste per Brian Howard of Philadelphia Magazine, really are just guys who used to play baseball.

There may be some initial expressions of relief and satisfaction from seeing Wheeler’s run in the booth end.

It will be interesting, though, to see whether those same Phillies fans still feel that way next spring as a new voice tries to find his way, while the team tries to wring one more season from an aging core.

The same “one more season” Wheeler will never get.

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Comcast Transformation of Philadelphia Phillies Could Leave Amaro on the Mend

The recent news of Chris “Wheels” Wheeler and Gary “Sarge” Matthews being reassigned from the booth to other roles within the Philadelphia Phillies assembly is symbolic of what is ahead for the wavering organization.

In the days immediately following a new television contract with the Phillies, media conglomerate Comcast decided to shake things up in the booth. With a forecast predicting fledgling attendance in the near-future, one has to wonder if general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is on thin ice.

Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News recently pondered if the Wheels and Sarge shake-up was a sign of things to come for the Phillies and whether Amaro should be worried.

As Donnellon sees it:

“Comcast, to this point a rather quiet, little, multibillion-dollar entity, has decided to become more overt in the day-to-day operations of its sports entities.”

Comcast‘s 25-year investment worth $2.5 billion and the Phillies $119 million stake in equity is nothing to sneeze at. The recent news and change in media direction would behoove the team to give in to more sweeping changes in how the organization is handled.

In fact, the Wheels and Sarge reassignments show how far the Phillies are willing to go to adhere to the Comcast enterprise. Are we entering an era where the Phillies will be pushed around by Comcast as if they were a shopping cart?

To be precise, no one knows for sure. 

If anything, one has to suspect the anticipated shortcomings of 2014 will lead to a signatory decision by Comcast in pressuring owner and president David Montgomery to make Amaro‘s seat hotter. If the team implodes and lands fourth or last in the National League East for a second consecutive season, one can only hope Comcast forces the hand of Montgomery and Amaro is dislodged from his position of general manager. 

Too much money is involved for Comcast not to act on behalf of its interests. With a farm system more barren than the factories that used to run in North Philly, Comcast could also use its apparently newfound leverage to reinvigorate the scouting department. 

The takeaways from the new television deal are uncertain though. Most speculation may be rendered extraneous. However, one thing is for sure. The suits at Comcast are going to play a heavier hand within the operation of the Phillies organization. How heavy? No one can be sure. Comcast forces will be at work though.

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Why the Phillies Are Sleeper Team in Masahiro Tanaka Sweepstakes

For the first time in years, the Philadelphia Phillies are flying under the free-agent radar, but don’t completely count them out of the impending Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes. 

When the hot stove isn’t burning in Philadelphia, there’s a problem. Under the reign of general manager Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been one of the boldest franchises during the winter months. This offseason, that mentality has been dormant thus far.

According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that could change. 

With the revelation of a conversation taking place between Tanaka‘s agent and Philadelphia’s front office, it’s just a matter of time before the Phillies are included on the list of teams that could chase the 25-year-old righty. 

On the surface, the Phillies have had a confounding offseason. Stuck between competing in 2014, rebuilding for the future and featuring a misshaped roster ill-fit for the rigors of a pennant chase in the NL East, Amaro has likely explored many avenues, including planning for the long-term good of the organization.

Of course, the impetuous Amaro hasn’t done anything to truly take that route. Instead, by signing Marlon Byrd to a two-year deal and re-signing Carlos Ruiz to a three-year pact, the team is signaling a desire to bring the band back together for one more run at relevancy.  

Clearly, a pitcher of Tanaka‘s caliber would aid in that quest.

Yet, the link between Tanaka and Philadelphia runs deeper than just wins and losses for 2014. The Phillies are a true sleeper in this sweepstakes due to three factors: finances, Amaro‘s history and the ability to keep their options open over the next few years.

First, as many of you will correlate, is the connection between Philadelphia’s new television deal and Tanaka‘s projected contract.

Comcast SportsNet and the Phillies agreed to a 25-year contract worth more than $2.5 billion last week, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Although the actual value isn’t quite what it seems when breaking down the numbers, per David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, the layout is still massive and will afford the Phillies a chance to hold a significant payroll for the foreseeable future. 

As of now, the Phillies have over $141 million committed to their 2014 payroll, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Although the new television money won’t begin to roll in for two years, the franchise can begin to project more cash to spend on payroll in the future.

Tanaka, due to the low posting fee ($20 million) attached to his departure from Japan, age (25) and volume of teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Cubs) in pursuit, could command a contract in excess of $100 million. It’s high for a mid-market team, but not for the Phillies in the aftermath of their television riches. 

If we realize this, Ruben Amaro undoubtedly has considered his freshly minted financial clout. When blockbuster moves are there to be made, regardless of the price in prospects or cash, Amaro has been far from shy during his tenure in Philadelphia.

Few general managers can boast about trading for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay—three of the best pitchers of a generation—along with signing Lee off the free-agent market and eschewing the farm system in a quest for World Series berths. 

Amaro, as many now-disgruntled Phillies fans can attest, can easily boast about his gambling mentality. 

Now, backed by the specter of found money, Amaro can be aggressive again. Although he’s shied away from rotation help in the form of Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, those free-agent arms come with concerns. From inconsistency to gigantic price tags, none of the non-Tanaka free-agent arms are great bets for $100 million.

Despite the unknown surrounding a move from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB, Tanaka will garner a contract bigger than his free-agent counterparts. If Amaro is feeling the need to make his yearly splash, Tanaka makes more sense than anyone else for a rotation that has major question marks behind Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

Of course, even if the Phillies do morph from a sleeper to a favorite in the Tanaka sweepstakes, their chances of competing for a World Series in 2014 seem remote. Yet, having a young, rising star like Tanaka locked up could make Philadelphia’s eventual rebuilding process easier down the line. 

If the Phillies sign Tanaka to a long-term deal, they can move forward with the knowledge that Cole Hamels (signed through 2018, with team option for 2019) and Tanaka will headline the team in the midst of changes. Moving on from Cliff Lee at the trade deadline, a yearly debate in Philadelphia, would be more palatable with a 25-year-old pitcher entrenched to soak up his productive innings over the next few years.

Since the regular season ended with an ugly 73-89 ledger, the Phillies have teetered between the idea of winning now and sacrificing for the future, but actions speak louder than words. Unless the team takes a dramatic step in either direction, status quo will return for 2014, leading to apathy among a rabid fanbase.

Buoyed by a new television contract, a gunslinger in the front office and the long-term roster-building options that Tanaka‘s arrival would provide, the Phillies are a sleeper in the offseason’s biggest race. 

Agree? Disagree?

Comment, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball. 

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for 2014

While the Phillies system is thin on projectable talent and ranks in the bottom tier among all organizations, things are starting to look up thanks to the emergence of slugger Maikel Franco and shortstop J.P. Crawford.

Franco announced his presence as one of the top power hitters in the minor leagues last season, as the 21-year-old third baseman combined to club 36 doubles and 31 home runs in 581 plate appearances between High-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading. With a knack for making consistent contact and generating backspin carry, Franco’s power projects favorably at the major league level and could even play up at Citizens Bank Park.

Meanwhile, Crawford, the team’s first-round pick in 2013, flashed huge upside last summer by winning the batting title in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League with a .345 average in 168 plate appearances. And for the record, speedster Roman Quinn would have ranked in the top five had he not suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in the fall.

In terms of pitching, left-hander Jesse Biddle once again gets the nod as the team’s top young arm after a solid but inconsistent showing at Double-A Reading as a 21-year-old. Although he ranked third in the Eastern League with 154 strikeouts in 138.1 innings, the southpaw struggled with his control and command to the tune of a career-worst 5.33 walks per nine innings.

Beyond those players, the Phillies’ prospect pool features its usual mix of high-risk, high-reward position players, such as outfielders Aaron Altherr and Dylan Cozens as well as third baseman Zach Green. And similar to previous years, the organization also houses its share useful major league arms including right-handed starter Ethan Martin, who debuted in late 2013, and flamethrowing reliever Ken Giles.

Here’s a look at the Philadelphia Phillies’ top 10 prospects for the 2014 season.

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Projecting the Philadelphia Phillies’ 5-Man Starting Rotation for 2014

There are two possible five-man starting-pitching rotations for the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies—the one they should have and the one they probably will have.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. all but conclusively answered the question of which five pitchers will be in the rotation when the Phillies leave Clearwater in March in remarks he made recently, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Nobody needs Amaro Jr. to confirm that Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Kyle Kendrick are the first three pitchers in the rotation. They held those positions in 2013, and no one in the organization has the stuff or the track record to take any of their slots entering 2014.

It is with reference to the last two spots in the rotation as the Phillies are currently constructed that guidance is needed. Amaro provided it in the context of the signing of Roberto Hernandez in the Gelb piece: “This is not someone who is going to slide into the top of the rotation. He’s in the bottom of the rotation. But we need some depth.”

Where is the rest of that depth going to come from? 

“We’ve talked a lot internally about some of our options,” Amaro Jr. continued. “(Jonathan) Pettibone and Ethan Martin will be stretched out in spring training. Hopefully that will create enough depth for us. We’re going to try to continue to look for more depth there.”

The wild card (in every sense of that term) is Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. D.J. Short of Hardball Talk laid out the caveats on Gonzalez concisely in October: “While Gonzalez was originally expected to sign a six-year, $48 million contract with the Phillies, the deal was reworked amid concerns about the health of his throwing elbow.” Gonzalez signed for $12 million over three years.

The Phillies would be thrilled to see Gonzalez go to spring training and dominate. More likely, though, he will start the season in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Based on the arms the Phillies have on hand, the rotation is almost certainly going to be Hamels/Lee/Kendrick/Hernandez followed by Pettibone, if he is healthy, or Martin if Pettibone is still unable to go.

The rotation should be Hamels/Lee/free-agent signing/Kendrick/Hernandez. Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or A.J. Burnett would slot really nicely into the No. 3 role, and any of those right-handers could be used to split up left-handers Hamels and Lee.

But don’t count on such a signing. Amaro Jr. said: “(W)e’re trying to get the best bang for our buck. In this marketplace, it’s tough because the prices have soared pretty significantly.”

Oh well.

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Will New Massive TV Deal Allow the Phillies to Spend Their Way to the Top?

The Philadelphia Phillies just got paid.

Early on Friday, Jan. 3, news came down that the Phillies had reached an agreement on a long-term extension with Comcast SportsNet, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Later, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News reported that the extension had been finalized.

The deal between the Phillies and the broadcast company, which was set to expire following the 2015 season, will now cover the next 25 years, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com via MLB Trade Rumors:

The number of years is but one factor here, as the major impact really comes from the pact reportedly being worth billions. That’s “billions” with a “b” and plural, as in more than one.

In fact, Gelb reports that the total tally is, well, rather large indeed:

For those who want that amount broken down into an annual figure, Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Journal has done the math:

And, as they say on game shows, “That’s not all!”

So what does this mean for the Phillies and their finances?

As far as the impact on the upcoming 2014 campaign, Gelb writes:

The contract is unlikely to have an immediate effect on general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.’s spending habits. Amaro said his payroll will be consistent with last year’s, and the Phillies are nearing their self-imposed $170 million limit.

But looking further into the future beyond 2014—and hey, a “self-imposed” $170 million budget ain’t exactly small potatoes—the Phillies will be in position to spend. And spend a lot.

Of course, this is a club that already has spent quite a bit. The Phillies have ranked among the top five in baseball payrolls for the past several seasons, in large part due to nine-figure contracts having been handed out to Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. And that’s to say nothing of the “smaller” deals with Jonathan Papelbon, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz that either remain on the books or were signed recently.

As a big-market organization, the Phillies have been able to afford all this up to this point. Here, though, is where it should be pointed out that not one of those players listed in that chart is under 30 years old—Hamels turned the big three-oh in late December—and most of those contracts cover the next several seasons. And many also have options, some of which are the vesting kind, so the Phillies will still be paying rather large sums to rather old players.

In other words, the Phillies don’t just benefit from this multi-billion dollar “TV money” extension—they flat-out needed it. Otherwise, the cost of doing business and staying competitive as those past-their-primers continued to age simply would have been too steep.

Sure, this extra cash is going to help offset a lot of potential problems and ease a great deal of the financial burden. Where things might get interesting, though, is finding out what the franchise’s plan will be going forward once the new money really starts kicking in.

Will the Phillies follow the lead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who inked their very own—and even bigger—broadcast deal, which has allowed them to spend major money on all facets, seemingly without any sort of limitation?

And if that’s the case, is that a good thing considering that Amaro—the very man responsible for many of the above massive (and questionable) contracts—may view this as yet another opportunity to continue spending big now and worrying about the consequences later?

Or will there instead be a shift in strategy? Perhaps the Phillies could choose to unload some of the dead weight deals by trading the likes of Howard in what essentially would be akin to buying out what’s left of his albatross of a pact. It won’t be easy to find any takers until the final year or two of that deal—similar to what the Chicago Cubs did with Alfonso Soriano last summer—but then again, it would allow the club to turn the page at some point.

In this case, that’s the sort of thing that money actually can buy.

 

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11

 

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Buying or Selling the Latest Philadelphia Phillies Rumors

Happy New Year to one and all, and with that comes the latest update of Philadelphia Phillies rumors over this 2013-14 offseason.

With just over a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, one might presume that the offseason is winding down for the majority of Major League Baseball. However, thanks in large part to Japanese-posted right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, the polar opposite is true.

At a time when the amount of high-profile free agents remaining usually would be countable on one hand, free agents—especially starting pitchers—still abound.

Even though free agency still has a long way to go, there aren’t too many rumors out there involving the Phillies. Over the last two weeks, the Phillies have really been connected to three players, and one of those names became known in the infancy of this new year.

The big question burning on the minds of Phillies fans is this: Is the current roster what general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and Co. plan on going with come Opening Day, or is another move—even a low-profile move at that—in store?

While that answer is never known for sure, we’ll do our best to clear up the situation. Here are the latest rumors around baseball involving the Phillies. We’ll either buy or sell on them, depending on the viability of them happening.

Let’s get to it.

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Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels Will Be a Cy Young Favorite in 2014

If fans of the Philadelphia Phillies have anything to look forward to in 2014, it will be watching their left-handed ace take to the mound. Cole Hamels, not Cliff Lee, is setting himself up for a season those in Philly haven’t seen since Roy Halladay in 2010 and Steve Bedrosian in 1987.

Despite pitching well in 2013, Hamels finished with an 8-14 record as the Phillies failed to cross home plate at a rate that ranked among the worst in Major League Baseball. To say Hamels was unlucky is putting it nicely.

For the first time in his career, Hamels failed to reach nine wins. In addition to being on the wrong side of decisions, Hamels saw his Earned Run Average (ERA) jump to its highest since 2009. His strikeout rate declined but it remains in line with his trends since 2010.

On the other hand, the 2013 data on Hamels looks promising for the upcoming season.

Several numbers stand out as positive indicators for Hamels. First, his BB/9 and HR/9 decreased to a level comparable to that of Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Despite his Left on Base Percentage (LOB%) dropping to its lowest rate since 2009, Hamels’ ground-ball and fly-ball percentages declined as well.

As compared to previous seasons, Hamels was not as lucky in 2013. This lack of grace could be attributed to the fact the defense behind him continues to worsen. Regardless, Hamels pitched at a level which could arguably be considered the best of his career as he adjusted to the uncontrollable variables surrounding him.

In addition to surpassing 220 innings pitched for the first time since 2008, the lefty’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 4.2 put him on par with his two previous seasons. For comparison’s sake, rookie phenom Jose Fernandez finished with a WAR of 4.2 while Washington‘s Zimmermann finished at 3.6. 

As good as teammate Cliff Lee is, Hamels is entering the prime of his career. Since 2008, the now 30-year-old has been a model of consistency. Over the last six seasons, he has averaged 33 games started, 198 strikeouts and 4.12 WAR.

Although, Hamels will have to muster up even better numbers in 2014 if he wants to finish on a plane similar to recent National League Cy Young Award winners.

Since Brandon Webb won the 2006 NL Cy Young, the ensuing NL winners averaged 19 wins, 242 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.41. Hamels career bests are as follows: 17 wins (2012), 216 strikeouts (2012) and 2.79 ERA (2011).

History and recent trends aren’t on the side of Hamels though.

Of the five NL Cy Young recipients following 2006, only Roy Halladay (33) and R.A. Dickey (37) are older than what Hamels is now. Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were the average age of 25 when they won their Cy Youngs.

When looking at the numbers, one could make the case that Hamels has not been a top-tier pitcher. At most, naysayers could suggest he has been a second-tier pitcher. They may be right. A quick look at the peripherals suggest so when comparing them to the 2013 version of Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. 

As I pointed out, though, the peripherals aren’t everything. The lefty’s career bests aren’t in line with recent NL Cy Young winners, but to suggest he can’t attain similar numbers is foolish. As he walks into the prime of his career, with the zenith in sight, Hamels’ trends suggest that he will only get better.

With that in mind, don’t overlook him as a Cy Young candidate in 2014. While nobody, including Las Vegas, believes the Phillies are a contender in ’14, nobody can doubt the prowess Hamels possesses on the mound.

 

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