What Ruben Amaro Jr. Must Do to Save His Job, Legacy This Winter

Ruben Amaro Jr. is the general manager of a bad baseball team.

As Major League Baseball enters the offseason and winter months, the Phillies executive is fighting for his job and legacy. Repairing the damage that has been inflicted upon the organization can’t be undone overnight. The path to returning to contention will be long and arduous. Until Amaro realizes that, the team won’t be properly suited to turn around.

From the moment Amaro took control of the Philadelphia front office, the franchise has experienced extremes.

In 2009, Amaro’s first season as general manager, Philadelphia made a second consecutive trip to the World Series, falling in six games to the New York Yankees. In 2010, the team won 97 games and made a third consecutive trip to the National League Championship Series, falling in six games to the San Francisco Giants. In 2011, Amaro’s concoction of talent set a franchise record for regular-season victories (102), but bowed out to the St. Louis Cardinals in a classic, five-game division series.

Since that moment, the wheels have come off at Citizens Bank Park.

2012 brought about the franchise’s first nonwinning season since 2002. Instead of a full, thorough and introspective look at what went wrong, Amaro and Co. decided to push forward in 2013 with an eye on returning to the postseason.

The result? One of the worst teams in baseball. At 73-89, the Phillies finished in fourth place in the NL East, behind the lowly New York Mets. No team in the National League posted a worse run differential. Outside of the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia’s was outscored at a higher clip than every team in professional baseball.

Now, as Amaro gears up for his sixth offseason at the helm in Philadelphia, his job and legacy are on the line. If he can’t transform the Phillies back in a winning outfit, he won’t be around much longer, especially after firing manager Charlie Manuel in August. When the passionate Philadelphia fans look for accountability, Amaro will be the only one to take the fall. 

Unfortunately for the 2009 PSWA (Philadelphia Sports Writers Association) Executive of the Year, job security and legacy are two separate and distinct entities. Due to the dearth of young, ascending talent in the organization, Amaro’s fate may already be sealed. At the end of 2014, his tenure as Phillies GM could end. 

Amaro’s legacy, however, can still be saved. If the GM prioritizes a winter plan that focuses on long-term contention, not a Band-Aid approach for 2014, he can still be remembered as an integral piece in Phillies history.

That’s right, folks. Forget big-game hunting for names like David Price or Giancarlo Stanton. Eschew the notion that Carlos Ruiz is a priority. Eliminate the idea of two or three-year deals for flawed relief pitchers.

It’s time for the Phillies to retool the farm system, prioritize 2015 and 2016 over 2014 and accept this as the inevitable state of the National League East: As of this moment, the Philadelphia Phillies are the least likely team in the National League East to go on a sustained run of success over the next half-decade. Forget catching the Braves and Nationals atop the division, the New York Mets and Miami Marlins have more young talent on their 40-man rosters.

Of course, before any of those goals can be accomplished, Amaro needs to see the writing that is plastered on the wall. If it takes a magnifying glass, so be it. If it requires a monocle, no expense should be spared. If it takes every media personality in the city of Philadelphia to stage a fan intervention, let it happen.

Next week, some of the brightest minds in the sport will convene for the annual GM meetings. Within days, Amaro must shed the thought process that has been permeating out of Philadelphia since September. That thought process centers around the Phillies adding major pieces this winter with an eye on contention in 2014. In other words, the wrong approach.

In September, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News asked Amaro if it would be fair to say this coming winter wouldn’t feature big-name acquisitions in Philadelphia. Amaro’s response was blunt.

“Nope,” said Amaro.

More recently, CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury pieced together a primer on Amaro’s impending offseason direction. Among the many highlights: Prioritizing the re-signing of 35-year-old catcher Carlos Ruiz, adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix, possibly Stanton, but more likely signing Nelson Cruz or trading for Mike Trumbo, and adding veteran relief pitchers to the bullpen.

There’s probably not enough Web space to chronicle why all of those ideas have downsides, but let’s start here: Prioritizing any 35-year-old catcher is foolish, chasing an impossible fish to catch (no pun intended) in Stanton is a waste of time due to limited farm system chips, Cruz is an awful defender and comes with questions off a 50-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, Trumbo just posted a .294 on-base percentage for Los Angeles and allocating resources to veteran relievers is one of the biggest wastes of money in professional sports. 

The problem, more than the actual players bantered about, is the ideology. Rebuilding teams don’t prioritize players like Ruiz, attempt to surrender major assets for a superstar like Stanton or look to bring in a flawed power-hitter like Trumbo. Those are moves made by a team on the cusp of contention or with a nucleus in place that can offset the downside (risk, money, prospects lost, player weaknesses) that all those moves, in some capacity, come with. 

As you are probably screaming at your computer or phone while reading this, a rebuild or retooling of the roster is much, much easier said than done. Even if Amaro wants to go that route, ownership, with millions more in their pockets due to Major League Baseball’s new national television contract, per Fangraphs, can’t just cut payroll and expect fans to flock to Citizens Bank Park. While that’s understandable, fans are as well educated in 2013 as any time in the history of sports. If presented with moves that make sense for long-term success, they’ll buy in.

Now that the blueprint is laid out for Amaro, how can a plan actually be implemented? Well, to steal a word from the GM himself, the Phillies need to be creative. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki asked Amaro about what it will take to win big again in Philadelphia.

“We have to try to be creative, maybe a little more creative if we can,” said Amaro. 

It’s likely that Amaro was thinking about ways to creatively get better, not worse, in the short term. Yet the same thought process can be used to set the franchise up for long-term success, possibly even one similar to the run from 2005-2011. Over those seven years, Philadelphia averaged 92.2 wins per season.

In the past, Amaro Jr. has shown the creativity to swing major deals for Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and attempting (and failing) to garner a preemptive strike on a team-friendly Ryan Howard contract extension before the market on power hitters exploded.

Now, that same creativity is needed to put a competitive product on the field within the next few years for the city of Philadelphia. Outside of 29-year-old Cole Hamels and the recently re-signed Chase Utley, no member of the organization should be off-limits. 

If ace Cliff Lee could net a franchise-changing prospect like Texas‘ Jurickson Profar in a trade, it must be explored. If the just hired, via Hardball Talk, “stat-guy” in the front office doesn’t rate prospects like Jesse Biddle, Cody Asche or Maikel Franco as highly as Amaro, trading them for similar prospects can’t be ruled out. If Domonic Brown, Philadelphia’s lone 25-or-under All-Star-caliber hitter, is coveted by a contender, cashing him in for two or three potential future stars is wise.

With those assets, the Phillies sank in 2013. Without them, it’s hard to imagine a .500 season in 2014, but Amaro’s legacy in Philadelphia could be restored if the next group of young Phils become contenders in 2015 and beyond.

If the beleaguered general manger continues to try to extract contention out of a roster that has seen it’s window of contention slammed shut, the short and long-term future won’t be pretty for Phillies fans.

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5 Dream Free-Agent Pickups for Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are headed for a critical offseason. With holes in the bullpen, rotation, at right field and at catcher, the Phillies will have some work to do this offseason if they plan on fielding a contender in 2014.

Even if the Phillies can’t realistically expect to contend for the postseason in 2014, they can still do more than just patchwork. While this year’s free-agent crop is thin, it’s headlined by its fair share of stars who could make an impact on any of MLB‘s 30 teams.

Given the Phillies’ already hefty payroll and likely unwillingness to exceed the $189 million luxury tax, they will only be able to do so much with their vacant dollars on the free-agency front. While it’s not far-fetched to think that the Phillies could sign a top free agent, the chances that they will sign three or four are probably slim to none.

With free agency officially starting at 12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday, November 5, the clock is ticking for general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and Co. to determine which positions should be prioritized and who to sign to fill them. If he had his way, chances are that Amaro would sign the top free agents at each necessary position.

Today, that’s what we’re going to consider.

Amaro has the resources to sign at least one of the five players to be mentioned in this slideshow. Here are five dream free-agent pickups the Phillies would want to (and could) make.

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Lenny Dykstra Had a Confrontation with Ex-Teammate Mitch Williams at a Mall

Former Philadelphia Phillies stars Lenny Dykstra and Mitch Williams were allegedly involved in an altercation at an autograph signing at a Philadelphia mall, according to Kyle Scott of CrossingBroad.com (h/t Mike Foss of For The Win).

Dykstra and Williams had been teammates on the Phillies team that fell to the Toronto Blue Jays in the 1993 World Series. Both men were in attendance at the signing and pent-up emotions allegedly boiled over into a brief, physical confrontation.

CrossingBroad.com posted a video of the tail-end of the confrontation taken by a fan on the scene. 

Warning: Video features NSFW language.

The incident occurred at First and Goal Sports in the Granite Run Mall on Saturday. Fans at the signing said the hostility began when Williams arrived on the scene and rebuffed a greeting from Dykstra.

Dykstra extended his hand to Williams, who slapped it away and muttered, “I’m not shaking your ****ing hand.”

Things were defused, however, when former Phillies catcher Darren Daulton (who was also on hand for the signing) interposed himself between the two and led Williams from the store.

The incident occurred in front of “40 to 50 people,” according to Scott’s report. Children were also present for the less than pleasant scene.

Clearly, some bad blood from the 1993 World Series loss continues to flow between these two men.

Dykstra went on “The Alex Jones Show” in 2011 and trashed Williams, blaming his former teammate for the team’s loss and claiming the defeat “tortured” him to this day.

So yes, there are still issues to be resolved here, if resolution is even a possibility at this point.

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The Definitive Blueprint for a Successful Philadelphia Phillies Offseason

From my vantage point, the Philadelphia Phillies have a franchise blueprint that reminds me of an old joke.

The joke tells of a man on the stoop of his house as flood waters approach. A woman in a rowboat drifts by and tells him to get in. He says, “No, I’ll wait for God to save me.”

The flood waters keep rising and the man heads to the second floor of the house. A man in a motorboat comes by and tells him to get in. Again, the true believer says he will hold out for God to save him.

Soon enough the flood waters have filled the house and the man ends up on his roof. A helicopter then comes by and the pilot lowers a rope and tells the man to climb up to safety. A third time the man says that he will wait for God to rescue him.

After the man finally drowns, he confronts God in heaven and asks God why He had let him die.

God was exasperated. “What the hell is wrong with you? I sent you two boats and a helicopter!”

After the 2011 season ended in a crumpled heap near home plate, the Phillies had their first sign that their reliance on old, expensive players had a short shelf life and a worrisome success rate.

After the 2012 season ended with the Phillies missing the playoffs for the first time in five years—and barely reaching .500—the Phillies had their second sign that their methods were failing.

Then the Phillies crash-landed in 2013 with 89 losses despite the third-highest payroll in baseball.

You do not need to have supersonic hearing to sense that the helicopter blades are pulling away from the Philadelphia Phillies. They are not apt to receive any more glaring warnings of their impending doom.

Which is why pieces like Dan Szymborski‘s for ESPN.com (subscription required), though hopeful in tone, do more harm than good for both the team and its fans.

Szymborski maintains that the Phillies “have the ability to vault themselves back into contention with a strong winter,” fueled in no small part by the possibility of a “new TV contract that could increase their TV revenue by a factor of six.”

The plan as he sees it is to sign Carlos Beltran and Matt Garza and/or trade for David Price. Szymborski had previously suggested that the Phillies offer four prospects (including Jesse Biddle and Roman Quinn) for Price.

In other words, more outlandish spending on players headed over the hill, and more strip-mining of the farm system.

No, no, no. Please.

A truly successful Phillies offseason can only come if the Phillies are willing to remain out of contention for a playoff berth for one more season.

Barring a renegotiation with Comcast, the television money is not coming until 2016 anyway.

After 2014, Jimmy Rollins’ contract might be off the books. The disastrous deals handed out to Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon will both be one more year closer to being done, perhaps making those players more tradeable commodities.

Meanwhile, Cliff Lee could be shopped this winter for major league-ready prospects. With a full rebuild in play, Lee might willingly waive his no-trade clause to leave for a contender.

Then, after the Phillies compile high first-round picks in 2014 and 2015, the TV money comes in and the Phillies make runs at a free-agent crop that (by default) will have better options than Garza, Beltran, Nelson Cruz and Shin-Soo Choo.

The definitive blueprint for a successful Phillies offseason, then, is to undermine the 2014 Phillies with the intent to make the 2015 and 2016 Phillies formidable.

I know this is never going to happen—Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has neither the patience nor the acumen to make it work.

But I wish it would. 

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Philadelphia Phillies’ 5 Most Tradeable Assets for the 2013-14 Offseason

Philadelphia Phillies fans who watched the Boston Red Sox, American League Eastern Division laughingstocks in 2012, win the 2013 World Series cannot help but think, “Hey, that could be us next year!”

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News doesn’t think so:

The Phillies situation is less promising than the Red Sox: First, the guys they are counting on to improve are in their mid-30’s while the guys the Red Sox were counting on were in their late-20’s. Second, they need to make wise choices in free agency, something that has not been their forte as of late.

What a wet blanket, right? What do you think Red Sox fans were saying in 2012, anyway? I’ll tell you: They were saying that the Sox were finished.

Andrew Cohen’s April 22, 2012 piece in The Atlantic declared last rites over the Red Sox: “Brothers and sisters of Red Sox Nation, it is time. And someone’s got to say it. So I come before you today to bury a particularly notable version of our beloved team.”

Cohen was right about 2012, but a year later the Red Sox had won another title.

So the Phillies can mope around and curse others’ luck, or they can get put a proper plan together and do something about the franchise’s fortunes.

Here are five pieces the Phillies could move to turn the team’s momentum forward again.

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Philadelphia Phillies Offseason Tracker: Hottest Trade Rumors, Free Agency News

The Philadelphia Phillies had a disappointing 2013 season, but they have a chance to get back to winning next year if they make some moves in the winter. 

After many wondered what would happen with second baseman Chase Utley, the Phillies gave him an extension during the season. That means the team is set at first base, second base and shortstop for the next couple of years.

There is some talent in the outfield as well. Domonic Brown and Ben Revere are good players, so this team has some pieces in place.

Philadelphia’s bullpen ranked 27th in baseball this year. Jonathan Papelbon’s future is unclear, but the team needs to look for help for the bullpen regardless of what it does with its closer.

Let’s take a look at some of the areas that the Phillies need to address this offseason:

• Starting pitching
• Bullpen
• Catcher
• Third Base

It doesn’t matter what position it’s at, the Phillies need to find a right-handed bat with some pop.

Stay tuned throughout the offseason to see what kind of moves the Phillies make.

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5 Realistic Moves Philadelphia Phillies Should Consider

The offseason ahead will potentially be one of immense surprise for the Philadelphia Phillies, for a few reasons. First and foremost, the oft-mentioned television contract situation will near its climax, as the Phillies are expected to sign their new, multi-billion dollar TV deal within the next month, according to CBS Philly.

In addition, the Phillies are close to hiring a much-needed statistician, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. While that alone is unlikely to alter the dynamic of the Phillies front office, it should influence future contracts and trades, at least to some extent.

Third, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. always has some tricks up his sleeve. Just how he plans on utilizing them this offseason remains to be seen, and whether or not they make sense will depend just on how he restructures his philosophy of signing and acquiring players, if at all.

In the following slides, five realistic moves independent of one another will be presented. Again, this slideshow does not and will not suggest that all five moves be made; rather, any of the five moves could come to fruition this winter and at least should be considered.

Here are five realistic moves the Phillies should consider in the coming offseason.

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5 Ways Philadelphia Phillies Should Spend the Coming TV Contract Windfall

The fast-approaching end to the Philadelphia Phillies‘ television rights contract with Comcast is the team’s best hope for a quick reversal of fortune.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports analyzed the unique position the Phillies can exploit given Comcast’s desire to keep them and Fox Sports 1’s perceived need to add another East Coast team since the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox are out of play.

Then just recently, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News put round numbers to the heretofore rank speculation of just what this deal might mean to the Phillies.

According to data from sportsbusinessjournal.com, the Phillies’ current deal yielded them an average annual rights fee from Comcast of $35 million. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that a new deal could be six times as large.

And it’s highly probable that a deal would be in the neighborhood north of $150 million annually.

In the immortal words of Phil Rizzuto, “Holy cow.”

That sort of money could buy the Phillies out of a lot of problems. Here is how they should spend at least some of it.

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5 Relievers Philadelphia Phillies Should Pursue This Winter

Man, does the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen need help.

Over the last two seasons, the Phillies have seen their once-stellar relief corps turn into a nightmare of a situation. As older veterans like Ryan Madson and Brett Myers left the team, the Phillies relied internally on replacements. While that strategy worked in the past, it has predominantly failed since.

In 2013, the Phillies’ bullpen ERA was 4.23. That figure was good for second-worst in the National League only to the Colorado Rockies, and fourth-worst in all of baseball. That’s not exactly the kind of news you like to hear, but is it really news anymore?

That’s where things have to change this offseason, and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. will have his hands full in determining who to sign to fill that role. Mike Adams was supposed to be that guy almost a year ago, but as his performance rapidly declined, so did the health of his shoulder.

The Phillies bullpen needs someone, almost anyone…good, that is. Here are five relievers the Phillies should pursue this year on the open market.

*All player statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and/or FanGraphs.com.

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The 10 Biggest Questions the Philadelphia Phillies Must Answer This Offseason

After the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies went 81-81, the 2013 season had three and only three possible outcomes.

And to borrow from Woody Hayes’ infamous dismissal of the forward pass, two of those outcomes would be bad.

From .500, the 2013 Phillies could only go over .500 (good), .500 again (not so good) or under .500 (bad).

In winning only 73 games, the 2013 Phillies overachieved in the worst sense—they were a good deal worse than anyone thought possible.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. thus enters the most difficult offseason of his tenure.

How he answers the following 10 questions will probably determine whether he retains his job after the 2014 season.

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