Predicting Philadelphia Phillies’ Starting Lineup Next Season

For still-new manager Ryne Sandberg and the rest of the Philadelphia Phillies, 2014 will bring some changes but also many struggles. Coming off a 2013 season which saw the team score the third-fewest runs in the National League and tied for fourth-fewest in all of baseball, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. will have to get extra creative this offseason in filling the holes in the lineup, namely a right-handed power bat in the likely form of a corner outfielder.

Catcher is also a priority for the Phillies, though there’s a good chance that Carlos Ruiz could be re-signed somewhat easily. He’d like to return and the Phillies would like to have him back, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported late last month that there’s mutual interest to strike a new deal.

The starting rotation and bullpen also have their fair share of issues, but for the sake of this piece, I’ll stick strictly to the everyday starting lineup. It’s not exactly clear what moves will shape up this offseason and it’s definitely a question as to how Sandberg will pencil in his lineup on a day-to-day basis. For now, I’ll hazard a guess. Here’s a prediction of the Phillies’ starting lineup in 2014.

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Power Ranking Philadelphia Phillies’ Biggest Needs Heading into Free Agency

After the Philadelphia Phillies finished 81-81 in 2012, the signs of trouble around the team were plentiful and ominous. But there were still rationalizations and wishes lingering.

It does not take all that much, so goes the dreamer’s logic, to go from 81 wins to, say, 88 wins.

Phillies fans hoped that Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard could come back healthy in 2013. They crossed their fingers on the possibility that Ben Revere could steal 40 bases and score 100 runs.

While they were ruminating on those wishes, they never could have guessed that Cole Hamels would go 8-14 or that Jimmy Rollins would hit .252 and slug .348.

There will be no such dreaming about the 2014 Phillies after this past season’s group lost 89 times.

Very few 73-89 teams have lacked for roster holes. The Phillies are no exception.

 

 

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Philadelphia Phillies: State of Franchise at the Start of the 2013-14 Offseason

Entering the 2013-14 offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies are a team that should be in the middle of a gut and rebuild.

Unfortunately, Phillies management looks at Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and think that since they’re all wearing the same numbers and playing the same positions that maybe it is still 2009.

For that reason, the Phillies are in the worst position the franchise has been in entering an offseason since 1996-97.

The 1996 Phillies team, like the 2013 version, boasted familiar faces doing sadly unfamiliar things.

And those fading stars, like Utley and company now, were victims of their own success.

Darren Daulton and Lenny Dykstra were the primary holdovers from the improbable 1993 National League champions. The pennant they won bought them time in Philadelphia in the form of (for the time) long, guaranteed contracts.

Daulton had actually landed his big-money deal before the pennant run, signing a four-year, $18.5 million contract extension before the 1993 season began. Certainly, the money the Phillies owed Daulton kept him in Philadelphia longer than his falling production and failing health justified.

Dykstra notoriously parlayed his 1993 playoff success into a now clearly absurd four-year contract extension that guaranteed him $24.9 million.

At the time that must have seemed like generational money for Dykstra. It wasn’t.

Come 1997, Daulton was playing out the string as a miscast right fielder. That was more than Dykstra could say: He was (unbeknownst to him) never to play another Major League Baseball game.

As you no doubt recall, the Phillies did not return to the playoffs until 2007.

They did not revive the dying franchise in free agency, either. They reloaded through the draft with players like Pat Burrell, Rollins, Utley and Hamels. By the time Howard was launching home runs off stadium facades throughout Major League Baseball, the Phillies were one of the best teams in the sport.

The Golden Era of Phillies baseball (2007-2011) is now indisputably past. Unfortunately, what is likely to follow is a repeat of the lost Phillies seasons through the remainder of the 1990’s that followed the fluke World Series appearance in 1993.

The Phillies, committed long-term at long dollars to too many heroes of the not-that-recent past, are going to try to fill in around their expensive burned-out supernovas with a modest signing here and a promoted-too-soon minor leaguer there.

What the Phillies should do is take several steps back as soon as possible.

That would mean parting with Hamels and Lee, the two Phillies who have the highest trade value. Even given their oversized contracts, both left-handers would fetch a good return in prospects from a team like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who had a lot less pitching than they thought they had in 2013.

The Phillies will point to their coming television contract negotiation and their flagging attendance as reasons for their apparent plan to stay their disastrous course in the face of incontrovertible evidence that what they are doing is not working.

Unlike the Phillies of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, though, the current franchise cannot build a new stadium to turn things around quickly.

Could Howard, Utley and Rollins all bounce back in 2014? Could Hamels stop losing two of every three decisions? Maybe.

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, that is the franchise’s only hope for the near—and even further away—future.

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Free Agency Shopping List

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to have to continue their free-spending ways of recent years if they are to have any chance to climb back into contention in the National League Eastern Division.

It is difficult to believe how a team that already has over $110 million committed to six players could have so many holes in its roster.

Actually, you can read that sentence the other way just as easily—of course a team with over $110 million committed to six players has a ton of holes in the roster.

Unless the Phillies’ target payroll is over $300 million (it’s not), then the unavoidable consequence of paying diminishing players like Ryan Howard, Jonathan Papelbon and, to a lesser extent, Chase Utley eight-figure contracts is the need to fill other roster spots on the cheap.

That is how you end up with Cody Asche rushed to the Majors to play third base and stuck with perpetually underachieving John Mayberry Jr. in the outfield too often. They may struggle, but they will do so without further straining an already creaky Phillies budget.

The trouble with this strategy, of course, is that when Howard misses half a season, Cole Hamels loses twice as often as he wins and Jimmy Rollins starts to decline rapidly, there is no one on the roster capable of making up for their meager production.

Quick aside: legitimate kudos to Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. for resisting the temptation to overspend on two of last winter’s biggest free agent busts.

The Washington Nationals spent $13 million in 2013 to watch Dan Haren win only 10 games with an earned run average closer to five than four.

Compared to B.J. Upton, though, Haren looks like a fantastic signing.

As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark recently laid out, the Atlanta Braves have Upton for four more years at very long money. That must be terrifying for Braves fans given these facts:

A .184 batting average, the second-lowest average in the entire sport among players with at least 400 plate appearances (beating out only his own teammate, that .181-hitting Dan Uggla) … a .289 slugging percentage…0 for the entire season (0-for-28, 18 strikeouts) with runners on third base …hitting .157/.227/.222 against left-handed pitching … a mind-boggling .108 batting average (10-for-93, with 42 strikeouts) with runners in scoring position.

Can you even imagine what the calls for Amaro‘s head would sound like if the Phillies’ current center fielder was Upton instead of Ben Revere?

The Phillies’ biggest roster hole, unfortunately, is at first base. With Howard set to receive another $25 million in 2014, expect the Phillies to fake it until they make it with a platoon of Howard and inexpensive labor Darin Ruf at that power position.

The biggest name on the free-agent market is Robinson Cano. Do not count on Cano ending up in Philadelphia, as he Buster Olney reported that he’s looking for a massive contract.

It probably does not matter anyway, since the Phillies re-signed Utley to hold down second base for two more seasons.

The Phillies can probably survive another season with Asche, Rollins, Utley and Howard/Ruf in the infield. They will not survive another season with Mayberry Jr. and Ruf figuring prominently in the outfield.

With Hunter Pence off the market, the right field free-agent list took a hit. But the Phillies could significantly upgrade this position with a player like Corey Hart, Michael Morse or Nelson Cruz.

All three of them have injury issues (and Cruz has that PED question hanging over him), but the Phillies might need to chance it with one of them given their abject need for an offensive boost.

In the starting rotation, the Phillies have two aces and three lesser cards.

Hamels and Cliff Lee would lead 90 percent of the rotations in Major League Baseball. As the Phillies proved in 2013, though, those two cannot do anything about what happens on the days they do not pitch.

The Phillies will have to do a lot better than what the possible end of Roy Halladay’s career offered in 2013 as a third starter.

Matt Garza has been linked to the Phillies in the past, but I do not see Amaro, Jr. taking a chance on Garza missing more time with injury while banking tens of millions of the Phillies’ free agent dollars.

My vote here continues to be for Ervin Santana. His performance in Kansas City this season suggests that he has rediscovered the form that made him so dominant in Anaheim a few years back.

The Phillies should also look to bring in one of the myriad former closers on the market for relatively short money on a one- or two-year deal and try to get lucky. 

If the Phillies conclude the winter with one more legitimate outfielder and one more credible starting pitcher, they should be better than they were in 2013.

Then again, it would be hard to get too much worse. 

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Philadelphia Phillies: Has Ruben Amaro Jr. Traded Away Too Much Pitching Depth?

“You can never have too much pitching.”

Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?

The aforementioned old adage is well-known to be a favorite of Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

It rang true come playoff time in 2009, 2010 and especially 2011, when the Phillies rotation was headed by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. Throw then-solid fifth starter Vance Worley into the mix and you’ve got a starting rotation that pitched to a 2.86 ERA in the regular season, best in the majors that year.

As Phillies fans and the baseball world have come to know, the rotation monster known colloquially as the Four Aces didn’t matter come the NLDS against the eventual champions, the St. Louis Cardinals.

With a Phillies offense that could barely hold its own despite the team having the majors’ best record at 102-60, the City of Brotherly Love saw what would be its baseball team’s most recent postseason appearance come to an untimely close.

And let’s not forget Ryan Howard tearing his Achilles tendon on the final play.

In the playoffs, the pitching was as much to blame as the offense. Although the offense provided minimal run support in those crucial games, there were a couple instances when the rotation was at fault.

Lee couldn’t hold a 4-0 lead. Oswalt blew up and blamed a squirrel. And from the Cardinals’ standpoint, the pitching was to be credited for its successes, as Chris Carpenter tossed a complete-game shutout on short rest in the decisive Game 5.

Fast-forward to present day. The Phillies are wrapping up the 2013 season, which will likely end with them placed fourth in the NL East and with their first losing record since 2002. This follows a 2012 season in which the team, coming off five consecutive NL East titles, finished the season at .500, going 81-81 and not even winning one of two Wild Card spots, let alone the division.

Even though the last two seasons have shown decline for the Phillies, the root of it comes from different aspects of the team.

In 2012, cornerstones Chase Utley and Howard missed more than half the season. The indestructible Halladay finally showed that he was human, landing on the disabled list for roughly two months due to a shoulder ailment. The offense was anemic, and it was most notable in Cliff Lee’s win-loss record, which stood at a jaw-dropping 6-9 despite his good numbers overall. 

But in 2013, the dynamic was different.

Sure, the offense wasn’t spectacular behind Utley and breakout All-Star Domonic Brown, but it held its own enough of the time. No, the problem was the unexpected: the starting rotation and bullpen. In short, the pitching.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

This was most definitely true in 2013. In the first half of the season, Opening Day starter Hamels struggled to gain control of his pitches and his head. He will have a losing record at the end of the season in spite of a fantastic second half. Lee’s record on the season is 14-8, with one of the many losses a 1-0 tough-luck defeat against Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves on September 27.

Baseball isn’t always fair. Ask Lee after 2012, and ask the 8-14 Hamels of 2013, if they think that their records reflect their performance. Lee’s 3.16 ERA and Hamels’ 3.60 ERA show just how good they were in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Shave down the latter’s ERA to after the All-Star Break and you have a 2.97 figure.

What’s more are the injuries and maladies that afflicted the Phillies throughout 2013.

Due to the continued shoulder woes of Halladay, Kyle Kendrick’s season-ending shutdown and rookie Jonathan Pettibone‘s shoulder inflammation, 10 pitchers started at least one game for the Phillies this year.

Add in the oft-injured bullpen headlined by offseason signee Mike Adams as well as suspended Antonio Bastardo, and you have a total of 25 pitchers on the season in addition to two position players pitching in relief. 

Twenty-five pitchers. That alone makes up a season’s active roster.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

No, I suppose you can’t. That’s been evidenced by the 27 players who have set foot on the mound this year in a Phillies uniform. But does pitching mean good pitching?

Since Amaro took over the reins as Phillies GM following the 2008 World Series win, he’s made a plethora of trades in an effort to boost the major league team.

In 2009, he dealt four prospects, including two pitchers, to the Cleveland Indians for Lee, a deal that paid off for the Phillies. Amaro then proceeded to deal Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three prospects—two of them pitching prospects—whilst trading away another three prospects, bona fide pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and superstar catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud, to the Toronto Blue Jays for Halladay.

In 2010, due to the void left by trading Lee, Amaro traded away 2009 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up J.A. Happ and two prospects to the Houston Astros for Oswalt. And in the offseason, Amaro notably re-signed Lee, bringing back the pitcher the fans so loved and vindicating himself for dealing Lee in the first place.

Or so it seemed.

2011 saw the Phillies trade away four prospects, including pitching prospect Jarred Cosart, for Astros right fielder Hunter Pence. And 2012 saw pinch-hitter Jim Thome, center fielder Shane Victorino, starting pitcher Joe Blanton and Pence traded for reliever Josh Lindblom and, otherwise, prospects.

Finally, the 2012 offseason saw Amaro trade Worley and pitching prospect Trevor May to the Minnesota Twins for outfielder Ben Revere, and deal another two pitchers, including Lindblom, for Texas Rangers third baseman Michael Young.

Have you noticed a trend here?

I’ve tried to emphasize the amount of pitching dealt by Amaro to make these trades, many of which had minimal impact and others that ultimately didn’t result in any World Series runs, Lee in 2009 aside.

The list of Phillies pitchers and pitching prospects traded away in these deals is seemingly endless. Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp. Drabek. Happ. Cosart and Josh Zeid. Blanton. Worley and May. Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla. And in minor player swaps, Julio Rodriguez and Michael Schwimer.

It’s also worth mentioning the pitching names the Phillies received in return over the years. Jack Taschner. Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez. Jeremy Horst. Kyle Simon. Seth Rosin. Lindblom, Ethan Martin and Ryan O’Sullivan. Frank Gailey. Rob Rasmussen and Nefi Ogando in August of this year. And that’s it.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

Funny how much shorter the second list is compared to the first, isn’t it? Amaro has traded away 14 pitchers in major deals throughout his tenure compared to acquiring just 12. One, Lindblom, isn’t even with the Phillies anymore. And Aumont could be on his way out soon as well.

The trades have worked out well for the Phillies in some instances and not so well in others.

Players like May, Rodriguez and Bonilla have yet to make the majors. Schwimer has yet to resurface in the bigs. Happ, Drabek, Carrasco and Knapp have dealt with injury, Knapp to the point that the Indians released him. Blanton was far from great as a Los Angeles Dodger. Worley struggled upon his trade and has been stashed in the minors for most of the year.

However, Happ—aside from being hit in the head by a comebacker earlier this year—has shown mild success after being traded from Houston to Toronto. Cosart has started off his career with a bang, and Zeid has made it to the majors as well. May has struggled in the minors this year but is still in the Twins’ future plans. And Carrasco and Drabek, despite injuries, have rehabbed or are in the process of doing so.

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ acquisitions have primarily fizzled.

Taschner was awful. Aumont and Ramirez have failed to establish themselves. Horst was good for a stretch but has since struggled or been injured. Martin is still a question mark. And Simon, Rosin, O’Sullivan, Gailey, Rasmussen and Ogando have yet to make the majors. Many of them never will.

While the trades the Phillies have made have their successes and failures, it’s worth noting that their acquisitions in these deals have been far worse than the talent traded away.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

In 2013, the starting rotation suffered. When John Lannan got hurt, there was a contingency plan in Jonathan Pettibone. When Halladay got hurt, Lannan returned and Martin burst onto the scene. When Pettibone got hurt and Martin had to be moved to the bullpen, Tyler Cloyd and Zach Miner stepped up. And both of them have struggled.

The bullpen also dealt with its fair share of injuries and issues. Adams dealt with various bicep and shoulder problems. Horst and Michael Stutes were also hurt, and Chad Durbin was terrible and subsequently released. Bastardo was involved in Biogenesis and suspended for 50 games. Aumont likely lost favor within the organization after command problems and a hissy fit of sorts upon being demoted. 

The bullpen replacements were mediocre at best, save for a few like Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus and B.J. Rosenberg of late. The others, like Cesar Jimenez, Luis Garcia, J.C. Ramirez, Joe Savery, Raul Valdes, Miner and potentially Mauricio Robles, wouldn’t even be major leaguers on other teams.

My point is this: The Phillies have a ton of pitching. That’s not a bad thing.

But the quality of the pitching they have? Pathetic. Abominable. Abhorrent. Atrocious. 

What was once considered an unstoppable rotation behind the Four Aces and Blanton, then Worley, is a distant memory. Now, all that’s left are deep scars in what was once a stockpiled organization in both the majors and minors.

The Phillies will have to see players like Cosart and Happ succeed elsewhere as a result of trades later rendered obsolete and unnecessary. It’s still too early to rule out successes from Carrasco and Drabek, at least in some capacity. Zeid could be a decent bullpen option for the Astros, while May will likely make the majors and thrive in some role.

Other teams aren’t having trouble sleeping at night from their side of trades with the Phillies.

Halladay netted the Blue Jays Drabek and d’Arnaud, the latter of whom later turned into R.A. Dickey. Lee gave Seattle Justin Smoak in a later trade. Revere gave the Twins much-needed pitching depth, even if it’s still a work in progress. 

But the big problem here is the Phillies’ lack of pitching depth.

When you realize that the Phillies had to rely on a pitcher who can’t top 90 miles per hour in Cloyd and a journeyman in Miner as consistent starting pitcher options, even for a short time, you know that the team is in trouble. And if the Phillies haven’t realized it yet, they will.

Yes, you could argue that some of the Phillies’ pitchers traded elsewhere haven’t done well since their trades. But that point’s irrelevant when you realize that they were good as Phillies, and nothing suggests that they would have necessarily flopped if not traded away.

Carrasco was the team’s top prospect when traded and Knapp was a top 10 guy. Drabek was a No. 1 as well at the time of his trade. Happ had been good in a Phillies uniform, as was Worley. And Cosart and May were on the fast track to be key contributors for the Phillies, most likely now or in the near future.

Instead, the Phillies have to make some additional moves this offseason to patch up a leaky rotation and bullpen.

In brief, these guys were successful as Phillies and, in the case of prospects, likely would have been had they remained with the organization.

The thing with trades is that players and prospects are appealing but never guaranteed successes. Other teams learned that with Happ when he was an Astro and Worley with the Twins.

However, what the Phillies ignored is that they had two talented rotation arms. They would have had more with Cosart and May. But they don’t, so now the Phillies have to be even more creative to fix a broken team and farm system.

I’m not saying the Phillies shouldn’t have made the trades they did. At the time, the trades for Lee, Halladay, Oswalt, Pence and Revere were justified. In the case of the first four names, the Phillies were a piece away from being serious World Series contenders, and the Phillies did make the playoffs with each of them in tow. With Revere, the Phillies needed a center fielder, and they got a young, controllable, solid option.

But shouldn’t the Phillies have considered not trading away pitching in most, if not all, of these deals without replenishing the team and farm system with equivalent talent?

It’s not the trades that hurt. It’s the fact that the Phillies have no Commissioner’s Trophies to show for them, nor any imminent minor league top prospect call-ups.

“You can never have too much pitching.”

Ruben Amaro Jr., I do not criticize you for making the trades you did. But I do hold you accountable for hypocritically sacrificing much-needed pitching depth in order to facilitate them without the end results paying necessary dividends. There have not been any more World Series titles, and there are not any reliable internal options for the rotation and bullpen.

And you are to blame for that.

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5 Players Philadelphia Phillies Can Sign If They Let Roy Halladay Walk

For the Philadelphia Phillies, a tough decision awaits on the fate of former ace Roy Halladay. As most Phillies and baseball fans know, Halladay was the best pitcher in the National League as recently as two years ago and arguably the best in the majors, both then and for a few years before that.

However, Halladay has perhaps taken one of the biggest falls from grace in the one of the shortest amounts of time of anyone in recent baseball history. Going from an ace to throwing the shortest start of his career back in his final start of the season on September 23, which lasted for just 16 pitches according to Walter Villa of MCall.com. On the season, Halladay made just 13 starts due to his shoulder injury and surgery, culminating in an unsightly 6.82 ERA.

There has been little to no precedent for such circumstances in which an ace hitting free agency isn’t just an ace, but a question mark entirely. For all we know, Halladay could be back—Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. admitted that he might bring Halladay back in 2014, according to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News.

In the event that he doesn’t, though, here are five other players who the Phillies could sign if they do in fact let Doc Halladay walk this coming offseason.

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When Can We Realistically Expect the Phillies to Contend for a Title Again?

The answer to when the Phillies will contend again is entirely dependent on how the team’s ownership will respond to the dry rot that consumed the last two seasons.

There are basically two ways this can go.

The first and less likely path would be to put the checkbook away for the foreseeable future and hope that the $110 million already promised to six players (Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins) will pay bigger dividends in a new year.

The primary problem with this strategy is that the Phillies already tried it in 2012 and 2013 with minimal success.

If the Phillies were my client (wouldn’t that be a sweet gig) I would advise them not to repeat their dismal recent history by exclusively trying to fill the gaping holes around their old, expensive pieces with young, cheap ones.

Look at the Phillies roster. Beyond the aforementioned six players, who are all almost certainly coming back, one of the highest-paid Phillies might never pitch again:

The next guy after him will make $7 million next season whether his elbow allows him to pitch or not. And Carlos Ruiz may in fact be back in Philadelphia next year, but the Phillies will probably not need to pay him $5 million to convince him to stay.

The point here is that the Phillies roster, as currently constructed, is a stark dichotomy of haves and have-nots.

Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, Cody Asche and Ben Revere will essentially make meal money for the 2014 Phillies; barring a big free agent signing or two, all four of them factor prominently in next season’s plans.

As stated above, though, that plan of new-found frugality is just not working.

So the Phillies are going to have go the way of the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and other similarly situated clubs and try to spend their way out of this quagmire of mediocrity.

This is especially so since, even with a terrific Fan Appreciation Day crowd of 44,398, the Phillies barely sneaked past three million in attendance in 2013.

That is no disgrace, but it is more than half a million shy of 2012’s attendance and more than 650,000 fewer than came through the gates in 2011 (attendance links per baseball-reference.com.)

While the attendance figures dwindle, the Phillies are coincidentally trying to leverage competing networks’ interest in their television rights which are up for bidding starting with the 2016 season.

Thus, now is not the time for an overhaul. Television rights to a rebuilding club do not project to have the same lustre as would the same rights to a winning team.

Ideally, of course, the Phillies would do things the way the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates (yeah, I said it) and other fiscally prudent teams have: by consistently drafting good players and developing them into, at worst, competent major league players and, at best, All-Stars.

It’s a little late for that, though. The Phillies allegedly strip-mined their farm system in the trades that brought back players like Hunter Pence, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

But they have not exactly been haunted by any of the players who left town in any of those deals, which suggests that except maybe for Jarred Cosart none of those prospects were much use anyway.

And except for Brown, the only thing the Phillies have developed the past few years is a tendency to implode.

Given the foregoing, then, you can realistically expect the Phillies to make some aggressive trades and expensive free-agent signings this offseason.

Neither the Braves nor the Washington Nationals have the look of a dynastic force, and with two wild cards in play now you don’t even have to be all that good to get into the playoffs.

Which, as the the 2011 Cardinals can attest, is really all you need to do. 

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Fan Appreciation Day at Citizens Bank Park Feels More Like “Closing Time”

“Closing time/Open all the doors and let you out into the world.”

By great planning or dumb luck, the Philadelphia Phillies had Cliff Lee set to take the ball for Fan Appreciation Day (Sep. 22), otherwise known as the last home game of the 2013 season.

Lee is the Phillies’ best pitcher and, based on his last outing, probably one of the five or six best hitters on the team as it is presently constituted.

The Phillies were also set to take the field in glorious, first-day-of-fall weather with bright blue skies and temperatures just creeping up toward 70 degrees without ever getting there. The Phillies could not have drawn up the setting for Fan Appreciation Day any better.

They even got the local sports stage to themselves, since the Philadelphia Eagles, who normally steal fall Sundays from the Phils, already played (and lost) earlier in the week.

It is difficult to imagine a more stark contrast in fan experience from what Phillies fans were treated to at Citizens Bank Park the night before.

After granting deposed manager Charlie Manuel one last hurrah (albeit in absentia), the locals were treated to five-plus innings of Tyler Cloyd getting touched up (again) followed by a long rain delay and then the game mercifully being called:

So for the second consecutive season, the Phillies will be closing Citizens Bank Park in September, at least a week or two earlier than anyone hoped. And for the first time since 2002, they will bring the curtain down on a losing season.

“Closing time/Time for you to go out to the places you will be from.”

When the Phillies re-signed Chase Utley, they confirmed that there is no full roster purge in the offing. Lee, Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins are all likely to be back, as is Jonathan Papelbon. Domonic Brown made the All-Star team on the back of a great month, so he’ll be back.

But it is hard to imagine Roy Halladay returning, because the Phillies will probably want him to take a deep pay cut and some other team is likely to pay him more.

John Mayberry Jr. is eligible for arbitration, but the Phillies would be wise to let him and his .226 average go. Same with Kevin Frandsen (.230.) And Erik Kratz will almost certainly be asked to take his turkey bacon and leave.

The Phillies pitching staff is such a mess that only John Lannan seems an obvious candidate not to return.

The Phillies will probably have more pitchers in camp than most college football teams dress on game day, hoping that some of their underachieving arms (Jeremy Horst, Justin De Fratus, Phillippe Aumont) might have “found something” in the offseason.

The only real certainty for the Phillies right now is that the glorious 2007-2011 era of five straight National League Eastern Division titles, two pennants and a World Series crown is finished.

Maybe the Phillies can redirect some of the money they wasted this season on Halladay and Michael Young (about $25 million) into the free-agent market and give their fanbase a reason or two to renew their season ticket plans.

But to contend next year, the 2014 Phillies will have to overcome the awful truth of their relatively rapid descent from being the only team to win more than 100 games in 2011 to being a sub-.500 club now.

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”

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Philadelphia Phillies: Grading Ruben Amaro Jr.’s Performance in 2013

With the Philadelphia Phillies‘ 2013 season mercifully winding down, different questions and conversations aside from the performances of players start to arise—most concerning the offseason ahead. Is Ryne Sandberg going to stick around as manager? Will the Phillies make any big moves this offseason? Do the Phillies have a shot at contending in 2014 with the roster they have right now?

Some of those questions can be answered more easily than others. However, there is a question that’s just as important as the rest, yet it involves a reflection of what has happened already:

How has Ruben Amaro Jr. done as general manager of the Phillies in 2013?

While the average Phillies fan would likely want to jump to the conclusion of “horribly,” there are many aspects by which Amaro‘s performance can be examined. Have his offseason contracts worked out in the Phillies’ favor? Did he make any trades at the deadline, and if so, did they benefit the Phillies? Has he handled prospect promotions accordingly and maintained a competitive team throughout the process?

Those questions will all be answered in this slideshow. And since Amaro won’t be fired this offseason, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, it’s worthwhile to determine whether or not Amaro‘s decisions in 2013 will carry over into 2014. 

Without further ado, it’s time to slap a grade on Amaro for the 2013 season.

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Ranking Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects After 2013 Minor League Season

It has been a year of transition for the Philadelphia Phillies. For a franchise that made the postseason every year from 2007 through 2011, the 81-81 finish of 2012 was expected to be aberration, but instead, foreshadowed a difficult 2013.

Ryan Howard had another lost season to injury, legendary skipper Charlie Manuel was let go and Roy Halladay became a shell of the future Hall of Fame pitcher he was during his first two years in Philadelphia.

With a new manager, Ryne Sandberg, auditioning for a full-time role in 2014, the franchise will try to get younger but still stay competitive in the National League East.

If they can continue to get big production out of aging stars like Cliff Lee and Chase Utley, along with the underrated Cole Hamels, the farm system could breathe new life into a franchise likely in the midst of its first losing season since 2002.

When Philadelphia turns things back in the winning direction, many of the following names could play major roles.

Without further ado, a ranking of the Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 prospects.

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