Breaking Down the 3 Most Likely Cliff Lee Trade Scenarios

Cliff Lee could be on the trading block after all.

The Philadelphia Phillies‘ ace has once again found himself among the names being discussed at the MLB trade deadline, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.

According to Crasnick, several teams have inquired about Lee and are making offers:

Multiple teams are making a late run at the Philadelphia Phillies with offers for pitcher Cliff Lee as Wednesday’s trade deadline nears, baseball sources told ESPN.com Friday.

Although Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. declined to address the extent of other teams’ interest in Lee, he said he’s keeping an open mind on Lee and numerous other Philadelphia players who might generate interest at the deadline.

Despite general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. previously saying that the Phillies have no interest in trading away their ace, that no longer appears to be the case.

Amaro was singing a different tune to Crasnick on Friday, saying that it’s possible that Lee gets dealt:

I never put any real absolutes on anything. Although we don’t have any desire to move a guy like that because we view him as someone who will be key to our future, I am a businessperson as well and I’ll be a good listener.

I can’t sit here and say I’m not going to trade Chase (Utley), or Cliff, or Michael Young or Chooch (Carlos Ruiz), or any of these guys. Some guys are less tradable than others. But I think I owe it to us as an organization to listen. If teams are going to come at us and suggest things, I’m not going to turn off the faucet and stop listening to them.

That doesn’t sound like a man who has no intention of trading away his players. However, it does sound like a man who doesn’t want to go back on his word but realizes that his team has a 2.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN.

The team is eight games back in its division before Friday’s games and has some of its best players on the disabled list. Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and four key relievers are all on the DL for the Phillies, and the team is a mere shell of what it once was.

The writing is on the wall for Amaro and the Phillies, and the team may need to reconsider its strategy of not selling. And fast.

With just five days until the deadline, Amaro may have to make some quick moves, and one of them could be to trade Lee.

It looks like Amaro is at least considering dealing Lee, as he has been scratched from his start on Saturday. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports not-so-subtly implied that it could be because Lee will be traded, not because of his supposedly stiff neck.

If Lee and the more than $70 million he is owed are to be dealt, it won’t be easy. However, there are three teams that have the pieces and need to make a deal for Lee.

 

3. Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians find themselves just three games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central before Friday’s results, and in a position to make their second postseason appearance in 12 years.

The team needs an ace if it’s going to make a run to the playoffs, however, as Cleveland doesn’t have a single starter with an ERA below 3.57.

Cleveland ranks in the bottom third of the league in ERA as a team, and the biggest problem is far and away the starting rotation. The bullpen has been solid, but the starters simply aren’t good enough to make it to the playoffs.

That’s where Lee comes in.

The Indians are already spending over $84 million this year, and adding Lee would considerably increase that number. Cleveland is a small-market team, but they might be willing to drop the kind of cash needed to bring in Lee in order to make a playoff push and attract more fans.

Lee won’t come cheap in the way of prospects, either. The Phillies are going to want a lot for a legitimate ace who is signed for at least two more years, and Amaro believes Philadelphia will compete next year with Lee.

If the Indians are going to get this done, they won’t want to trade top-prospect Francisco Lindor, but pitcher Trevor Bauer will be the centerpiece of the prospect package. The team will then need to throw in another highly-touted prospect like Ronny Rodriguez or Tyler Naquin to entice the Phillies.

Like I said, Lee won’t come cheap.

It will be difficult for the Indians to give up so much for one pitcher, but if they are going all-in this year, then trading for Lee is a possibility.

 

2. St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball, but that doesn’t mean they’re perfect.

Sitting just 2.5 games up on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the competitive NL Central, the team needs to add a key piece if it is going to maintain its lead on the Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.

St. Louis actually ranks third in the MLB in ERA, but they are behind both their division rivals. The team’s starting rotation is its biggest concern at the moment, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has identified the Cardinals as a leading contender for starting pitchers, including Chicago White Sox starter Jake Peavy.

If Lee becomes available at the deadline, he’ll be a hot commodity, and the Cardinals won’t be able to stay away from him.

Adding Lee to a rotation that already includes Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller borders on being unfair. The Cardinals would have a ridiculously dominant staff, and if the team decided to go to a three-man rotation in the postseason, there wouldn’t be a team out there that could consistently score runs against them.

Unfortunately, the team is already spending over $112 million, which is probably the ceiling for the Cardinals. However, if they can find enough money to add Lee or a prospects package so enticing that the Phillies will pay part of his salary, St. Louis will be in a great position come the postseason.

The Cardinals obviously don’t want to give up their No. 1 prospect, Oscar Taveras. However, they might be willing to part with him to add an ace like Lee for up to four seasons.

If Taveras is not included in the deal, the Cardinals will have to trade pitcher Carlos Martinez. Other than Martinez, the Phillies will likely ask for infielder Kolten Wong or pitchers Michael Wacha and Tyrell Jenkins. One of those three will be paired with Martinez, and then the Cardinals will have to throw in another prospect or two. If the team wants Philadelphia to pay part of Lee’s salary, that extra prospect will have to have quite a bit of upside.

It’s going to be tough for St. Louis to add Lee, but they have the second-best chance of any team in baseball to do it.

 

1. Boston Red Sox

There isn’t a better fit for Lee than the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox boast the second-best record in baseball and are leading the American League. They still could use an ace like Lee to bolster their bid for another World Series, and they have the prospects and cash to make it happen.

Let’s start by looking at why the team needs Lee.

While Boston leads the MLB in runs scored, they rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA. The team needs better starting pitching if it’s going to fix this problem, and Lee would certainly help.

With Clay Buchholz on the DL, the Red Sox lack a true ace. Adding Lee and bringing back a healthy Buchholz would give the Red Sox arguably the best one-two punch in baseball.

Lee has found quite a bit of success in Fenway Park over the past four years as well, posting an ERA of 1.59 when he pitches there. If he were to be traded, the Red Sox know that he can shut down opponents at home.

While Lee’s no-trade clause includes the Red Sox, it’s highly unlikely that he vetoes a trade that sends him to a contender.

Lee is the perfect fit for the Red Sox, but are they the perfect fit for him?

I’ve discussed at length how difficult it is to find a team with enough money and talent to trade for Lee, and finding a team that meets those qualifications and is willing to buy at the deadline is next to impossible.

But not completely impossible.

Boston meets all three requirements and is the only team in MLB who does.

The Red Sox are only spending over $155 million this year, which is well below what they are capable of. The team has enough money to take on Lee’s salary without any help, and can afford to pay for his salary throughout the remainder of his contract.

What’s even better for the Red Sox is that they have the minor-league talent that the Phillies would find attractive.

With Jimmy Rollins aging and struggling, the team needs a new shortstop. Xander Bogaerts could be that shortstop, as he is almost MLB-ready and has proved that he is one of the best prospects in the game.

By trading Bogaerts, the Red Sox would only have to give up another prospect like Brandon Workman and possibly a lower-tier player to acquire Lee.

The Red Sox have everything the Phillies want, and this is a match made in heaven. If Lee is traded, expect it to be to Boston.

Follow @JoshSchoch

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MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers

The Philadelphia Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven games as road underdogs of plus-110 to plus-150, which is important to consider when making your MLB picks Friday, as they face off with the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park.

Courtesy of SBR Forum, the Phillies are plus-140 underdogs in the pro baseball odds, with the betting total sitting at eight in the market.

Let’s take a closer look at this interleague matchup from a betting perspective while offering up a prediction along the way.

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10 Realistic Trades Philadelphia Phillies Could Make at 2013 MLB Trade Deadline

It’s that time of year again, folks.

With the Philadelphia Phillies mired in a five-game losing streak and sitting at 49-53, all previous indications that the team would be buyers following a 7-3 road trip leading up to the All-Star break could be for naught if they lose the series against the Detroit Tigers this weekend.

Phillies fans need something positive after their team just got swept by the best team in the majors, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has some serious thinking to do. Should he sell off the team’s list of veterans that includes fan favorites Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins and even Chase Utley? Should Amaro consider offers for closer Jonathan Papelbon and left-handed ace Cliff Lee? Should he just trade the one guy who’s replaceable in Michael Young?

Or should Amaro forget about selling altogether and just look to acquire a bullpen piece and an outfielder?

It’s these kinds of questions that linger within the Phillies front office. These questions, however, must be answered within the next couple of days. There’s less than a week to go until the July 31 trade deadline, and the longer the Phillies wait to declare their stance, the less leverage they will have in trades they make in the next five days, whether as buyers or sellers.

Even though ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted as recently as July 24—two days ago—that he talked to a team’s executive who said the Phillies are definitely buyers, their losing streak isn’t helping cement that position. Until the Phillies declare one way or the other—as in make a trade—their approach will remain as unclear now as it has been for the past month.

Consequently, this slideshow will focus on both aspects of the trading spectrum, first beginning with selling options, and then with potential acquisitions. Some options will be more realistic than others, though all should be realistic enough to prevent any GM from immediately hanging up the phone. Lastly, some of the following trade scenarios are based upon rumors, while others are just speculation.

And please don’t forget that the purpose of this is not that the Phillies make all of these trades, but that any one of them could be a feasible deal.

Without further ado, here is my third edition of 10 trades the Phillies should consider at the trade deadline.

*All prospect rankings and commentary are courtesy of Baseball America’s 2013 Prospect Handbook unless otherwise noted. All contract information courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

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Jonathan Papelbon and Others the Phillies Should Move Before Trade Deadline

It’s time for the Philadelphia Phillies to give up on 2013 and start building towards the future. With the team sitting three games under .500 and eight games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has some tough choices to make in the days leading up to the MLB trade deadline.

The Phillies on-field performance has made one decision easy: the team has to sell.

That doesn’t mean the Phillies have to trade away all of their stars. Cliff Lee, who the Phillies traded once before, is too important to the team’s future to send away. The same goes for Chase Utley, a player in the final year of his contract, but who is still one of the team’s most reliable position players.

But there are still some high-profile players who could fetch a decent price at the trade deadline. Three players on the current roster, including closer Jonathan Papelbon, shouldn’t fit into the team’s rebuilding plans and have to go before July 31.

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon and his $50 million contract don’t make sense for this team. If the Phillies were still contenders, spending for a top-flight closer would make sense. But the Phillies aren’t close to contending this year, and part of what’s holding the team back is Papelbon’s contact.

Unfortunately that same contract could make trading him a very tricky proposition according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

“He’s just not that valuable with that contract,” says one AL exec. “If the Phillies want premium players back, they’d have to take half the contract [which has two years, worth $26 million, remaining, plus a vesting $13 million option]. I don’t see any team giving up an A-list prospect and taking that entire contract. You’d be taking the worst two or three years of a bad deal and giving them a premium prospect. That just doesn’t make sense.”

The Phillies are going to have to eat part of Papelbon’s contract at some point, unless the rebuilding process includes paying a 35-year-old closer $13 million in 2016. The contract was bad when they signed it, and it’s just going to get worse over the next three seasons.

Even though he has blown five saves this year, Papelbon is still holding a 2.27 ERA, his lowest since 2009. If the Phillies do eat part of his contract, $6-7 million per year is a much easier pill to swallow for one of the best late-inning relievers in baseball.

Trading Papelbon not only could bring some bright prospects in return, but it would free up some money to improve an otherwise disappointing bullpen. As long as Papelbon’s contract is on the books, the Phillies are unlikely to get the kind of pitchers they need to hand him a ninth inning lead.

Michael Young

There is no way the Phillies are bringing Michael Young back for another season in 2014, so trading him now is an easy decision. Young has been a solid, dependable hitter this season, carrying a .280 batting average and .751 OPS through 94 games, but his replacement is sitting in AAA, and Young could command the highest price of any player not named Cliff Lee.

Young can play any infield position and would make a passable designated hitter for an American League club. His salary is also minimal, thanks to the Rangers, who are picking up $10 million of his $16 million check this season.

The good news for the Phillies is there seems to be genuine interest in the veteran player. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports that both the Yankees and Red Sox are interested in him. Young would make either of these teams better, but the Yankees make the most sense with four infielders currently sitting on the disabled list.   

Even if the Phillies get pennies on the dollar for him, moving Young is addition by subtraction. Trading him opens up a spot on the major league roster for Cody Asche, who is hitting .294 with 12 home runs and 60 RBI through 99 games this season for AAA Lehigh Valley. Asche is ready for the majors, and calling him up for the final two months would be the perfect way to ease him into a starting role in Philadelphia.

Carlos Ruiz

The Phillies really should have cut ties with Ruiz last season when he was at the top of his game, but like his slugging percentage, Ruiz’s trade value has sunk this season. Just look at Ruiz’s stats, according to baseball-reference.com, compared to a year ago:

2012: .325 BA, .540 SLG, .935 OPS
2013: .252 BA, .280 SLG, .581 OPS

That said, Ruiz is hitting .350 with an .801 OPS this season against left-handed pitching, according to fangraphs.com. He still has value as a platoon catcher, which is the role he is better suited for at this point in his career.

FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal thinks the Phillies may hold on to Ruiz because he has “fan identification” as one of the team’s most popular players.

Keeping him would be a costly mistake, though, and hopefully the front office understands this.

He may not command the same price that he would have last season, but trading Ruiz now is still the best option. With Erik Kratz taking at-bats away from him on a regular basis, and Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle waiting in the minors, re-signing Ruiz after this season would be a mistake.  

Ruiz, along with Papelbon and Young, needs to be traded at the deadline. All three have value to contending teams, but are worthless to a Phillies organization that is in need of a rebuild. If Ruben Amaro and his staff are smart, none of these players will be wearing a Phillies uniform on August 1.

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Phillies Trade Rumors: Philadelphia Should Seek Suitors for Jonathan Papelbon

With Major League Baseball’s July 31 trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Phillies need to see if anyone will take Jonathan Papelbon off their hands.

Philadelphia entered Wednesday seven games behind Atlanta for the top spot in the NL East. The next couple of games will determine if the Phillies should deal some of their veteran talent or if there’s still a chance at making a run toward one of the two wild-card spots in the National League.

Jayson Stark of ESPN writes that if the Phillies have a bad week leading up to the deadline, they could sell. He notes that if the organization decides to take calls on Papelbon, it’s going to be tough to trade him because of how big his contract is. Here’s what an AL executive told Stark:

He’s just not that valuable with that contract. If the Phillies want premium players back, they’d have to take half the contract [which has two years, worth $26 million, remaining, plus a vesting $13 million option]. I don’t see any team giving up an A-list prospect and taking that entire contract. You’d be taking the worst two or three years of a bad deal and giving them a premium prospect. That just doesn’t make sense.

Back in late June, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Phillies would be seeking a lot in return if they were going to be trading Papelbon. At this point in the season, it doesn’t seem like the closer is worth a high asking price. He hasn’t been very good, and there are some concerns about his future.

Through 39 appearances this season, the right-hander is 20-of-25 in save opportunities and has allowed 10 earned runs in 39.2 innings of work. He’s also struck out 35 batters and has walked just six. But his lack of strikeouts in 2013 is one reason teams may not want to pay much for him.

The other problem with giving up a top prospect for Papelbon is that he hasn’t been throwing the ball nearly as hard as he used to. In 2013, the average velocity on the 32-year-old’s fastball is only 92.3 miles per hour. Here’s a look at how that matches up in comparison to previous years.

Papelbon may not been as effective as he once was, but there’s no doubting teams are seeking big-time relievers at the deadline. Several clubs are without reliable closers, and while the Phillies closer may not be the most attractive guy on the market, he still has some value.

If the Phillies are interested in shipping Papelbon off to another franchise, they’re likely going to have to eat a bunch of his contract. But here’s the trade-off: If Philadelphia eats some money, the other team may be willing to give up a better prospect, as they will no longer have to pay the reliever as much.

If the potential trade partner is fine with trading for Papelbon without Philadelphia paying the bulk of his remaining contract, the Phillies probably aren’t going to get much in return. But the problem right now is that it isn’t clear general manager Ruben Amaro is even interested in getting rid of his closer.

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports it’s unlikely the team sells:

Amaro should at least be calling other teams to see what they’d be willing to pay for Papelbon. The GM should be looking to get the closer off the team’s books so it can move forward. You never know what a team is going to think he’s worth or might give up in exchange for him.

 

All statistics in this article were obtained via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and are current through July 23. All injury information was obtained via Baseball Prospectus, and all contract information was obtained via Cot’s Contracts.

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Philadelphia Phillies Prospects Who Deserve A Shot Sooner Rather Than Later

The lackluster Philadelphia Phillies are old, to put it bluntly. The addition of Ben Revere was a nice shot of youth to the aging lineup, but he caught the oh-so-familiar injury bug. While the playoffs are a long shot for the Phillies this year, there are a few young talents in the farm system that should see some time in the bigs as soon as roster spots open up.

Cesar Hernandez

Hernandez, a natural second baseman, is currently undergoing a significant transformation. Due to Philadelphia’s sudden hole in center, management has accelerated the Venezuela native’s transition to the outfield.

Stephen Planovich of MLB.com writes that while Hernandez is quick and athletic, errors have plagued him thus far in the outfield experiment. That being said, Hernandez finds himself needing to undergo an entire mindset shift, so naturally there will be a learning curve.

According to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies were initially trying the 22-year-old in center in preparation for 2014, seeing as he’ll be put on waivers if he doesn’t make the team next year.

Between Lehigh Valley and Reading this year, the switch-hitting Hernandez has posted an impressive .316/.379/.414 line and is cranking up the power numbers lately with Reading. He’s also earned some accolades:

While Hernandez is only ranked No. 18 by MLB.com in Philadelphia’s minor league system, he’s shown that he can hold his own in the majors, as he batted .250 in nine games for the Phillies back in June. Once he irons out the kinks in the outfield, expect to see Hernandez on the big league roster.

Cody Asche

While the 22-year-old Asche got off to a fairly slow start, Hernandez’s fellow International League All-Star has been mashing it in lately for the Iron Pigs:

The third baseman—ranked No. 9 in Philadelphia’s system by MLB.com—is currently posting a .292/.350/.463 line with an .813 OPS, but in his last 10 games he’s batting a scorching .357 and slugging .643 with a 1.029 OPS.

Not only does he have power (12 bombs so far), he’s got speed to boot (11 steals). Since Philadelphia’s 13-run eruption against the Mets on July 19th, its offense has been anemic and needs a spark. Asche could be that spark.

In an interview with Michael Lore of lehighvalleylive.com, director of player development Joe Jordan said that Asche has “gotten better and honestly, I would feel confident with him going to the major leagues as a third baseman and as a hitter. I think he’s proven we have something pretty good.”

Seeing as the Phils could move Michael Young in the near future—and Kevin Frandsen is likely not a long-term solution—Asche may not have to wait long to see time in the bigs.

Ethan Martin

Ranked No.2 in the Phillies’ minor league system, Martin is an interesting case. While Reading’s Jesse Biddle may be the better natural talent, Martin is more experienced and is playing at a higher level.

For the year, the 23-year-old righty has gone 11-5 with a 4.35 ERA, .229 batting average against and 99 strikeouts in 20 games (109.2 innings pitched).

While his fastball in the upper 90s is plus, Martin’s control is suspect—his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an unfortunate 1.55:1.

Like Asche, however, Martin has improved as the season’s gone on:

In his last 10 games, Martin has pitched to the tune of a 3.45 ERA with a .210 batting average against. His walks have still been cause for concern and the Phillies need anything but another guy who can’t find the strike zone, but the potential is there.

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Phillies Trade Rumors: What Should Philadelphia Do With Michael Young?

With yet another drop below the .500 mark and another DL trip for one of their relief pitchers, the Philadelphia Phillies are seeing their likelihood of making the postseason take a turn for the worse.

Whether they’ll be buyers or sellers is still up in the air (despite Ruben Amaro Jr.’s insistence on the former there’s still ambivalence), but what’s clearer is that Michael Young probably won’t be in red pinstripes much longer.

While Young has been fairly productive (slash line of .283/.346/.413 and is hitting .315 with five home runs and 20 RBI since June 1, according to ESPN’s Doug Mittler), they don’t need him.

In an interview with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, an NL executive stated that “They could plug in Kevin Frandsen, and there wouldn’t be that much dropoff at all.”

Much of baseball perceives Young to be a lucrative trade chip. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted this last week:

Even if nothing materializes in the next week, that doesn’t mean Young is staying put.

According to Heyman in the previously cited article, “Young makes $16 million in the last year of an $80 million deal, so it’s possible he could clear waivers and be traded after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. He has a complete no-trade, which he received as part of his deal to accept the trade from Texas to Philly.”

According to Mark Feinsand of New York Daily News, a trade involving Young and Joba Chamberlain could be a possibility, which would certainly be an economical route, a road less traveled in Philadelphia (see Howard, Ryan).

If not Chamberlain, though, the Yankees don’t really have anyone to offer. Their farm system isn’t known for producing spectacular talent, and most current New York prospects aren’t due up until 2015 at the earliest.   

While the Yankees may be a viable destination, there have also been reports that the Boston Red Sox are also actively pursuing the third baseman:

The BoSox need someone in the hot corner and have a better shot at the postseason than the Yankees. The Phillies have holes in the outfield and Boston has both mid- and upper-level prospects—Jackie Bradley and Bryce Brentz for example—that could fill them.

Rosenthal also indicated that the Cincinnati Reds are a possible target.

Cincy’s slew of injuries makes it an eager shopper. Obviously the Reds won’t be giving up Billy Hamilton, but they have a group of talented pitchers that could help Philly’s relief needs. That being said, none of them will break into the bigs anytime soon.

With all of this in mind, Boston should be the frontrunner. Now we just have to see if Amaro will budge.

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Philadelphia Phillies: State of the Franchise at the 2013 Season’s 100-Game Mark

The Philadelphia Phillies are not managed by Bill Parcells, but they are the living embodiment of one of the former National Football League coach’s most famous truisms.

“You are what your record says you are” is a phrase tough guy wannabes and other unpleasant people like to throw around with great self-satisfaction to point up the shortcomings of everyone but them.

I really dislike people who break this old chestnut out every time somebody else makes a mistake or three. Which, I guess, makes it all the more galling that I am applying it to the 2013 Phillies.

It really fits, though.

Until Matt Harvey abused the Phillies on Sunday afternoon, the Phillies were an even 49-49 on the season.

In 2012, the Phillies went 81-81.

You do not need to be a mathematics major to see that the Phillies played 260 games in a bit more than a season and a half and won exactly half of them.

The Phillies’ record, then, says they are a .500 franchise. And you know what?

So does their roster.

The Phillies have about half of an outfield.

Domonic Brown is set to be a fixture in left field. Ben Revere has shown flashes of exciting promise, but his .324 lifetime on-base percentage does not suggest he will ever be more than an adequate leadoff man.

Delmon Young has hit decently and fielded pretty poorly, i.e., he is exactly what he was advertised to be.

The Phillies have about half of an infield.

Jimmy Rollins is having a pretty nondescript campaign by his standards. Chase Utley has been resurgent when he has played. And there ends the good news in the infield.

Ryan Howard is featured in every “worst contract in baseball history” piece the blogosphere can pump out. Michael Young is at the top of every “first Phillie likely to be traded” list (H/T Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports).

The Phillies have about half of a starting rotation.

Cliff Lee is an All-Star and shows no signs of slowing down. Cole Hamels has been a hot mess for most of 2013, but it is probably too soon to say he cannot regain ace form in 2014 and beyond.

As an aside, though, the Parcells quote absolutely applies to Hamels this season. His earned run average is over four and he is 4-12. His WHIP this season is a full tenth higher than his career average in that statistical category. He is what he is right now.

After Lee and Hamels, the Phillies have a whole lot of “meh” at the back end of the rotation. Kyle Kendrick is trying as hard as he can, but he will never be confused with an ace.

Jonathan Pettibone, John Lannan and the others pitching on days four and five are only placeholders until better options come along.

The only places you cannot say the Phillies have half a roster are in the bullpen and on the bench.

Because in those areas, the Phillies have much, much less than glass-half-full situations.

The Mike Adams signing can fairly be called a loss. As such, the Phillies are back to handing the ball to the likes of Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus and Antonio Bastardo in the late innings, hoping none of them burst into flames trying to get the game to the suddenly iffy Jonathan Papelbon.

And you can’t make me talk about the Phillies’ bench options (beyond Kevin Frandsen, who has been really good) so I won’t.

Besides, if you want to watch the Phillies’ bench, based on the team’s injury problems you can just watch the game from the first inning on—John Mayberry, Jr. and Darin Ruf would be, at best, bench players for most contending teams.

Despite all of the foregoing, the Phillies continue to cling desperately to their .500 record and their dwindling hopes of stealing a playoff spot in an underwhelming National League.

As last year showed, though, .500 becomes less of an accomplishment and more of a burden with each game that falls off the schedule.

The primary bit of good news for the Phillies going forward is what promises to be a wild shedding of salary soon after the season ends on September 29 in Atlanta.

Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz will all fall off the books, freeing up about $46 million ($10 million of Young’s salary in 2013 is being eaten by the Texas Rangers.)

If the Phillies decide to sell Papelbon before the trade deadline, that would be another $13 million saved next season.

So in truth, the future for the Phillies looks quite a bit brighter than the present. For one thing, the National League East is not exactly populated with dominant teams in the way of the 1927 New York Yankees or the Big Red Machine. 

Brown, Revere, Lee and Hamels are a reasonably solid core to build around, prospects like Maikel Franco and Jesse Biddle are in the pipeline and the team should have a lot of money to spend next winter.

Getting to that promised time, though, might feel interminable as the 2013 team trudges toward another Even Steven season likely to end without a playoff run.

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The One Trade Deadline Deal Philadelphia Phillies Have to Make

With just over a week to go before MLB‘s July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, teams that haven’t already determined their stance for the coming week—either as a buyer or seller—are beginning to do just that.

For the most part, teams out of playoff contention will be sellers, while teams in the thick of the hunt for October tend to be buyers. Depending on who you talk to, the Philadelphia Phillies are mired in one position or the other—with a record continually hovering around .500, their chances and stance at this year’s trade deadline remains vague.

The only problem is, the Phillies are as unsure of their own stance as the media and fans are when reflecting upon it. Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. is still unsure of which route to go within the next week.

Should the Phillies look to buy, which would encompass pursuing a reliever or two and/or an outfielder, either of whom would be under team control for the next few years? Or should they look to trade off players with free agency looming after the season, such as Michael Young or fan favorites Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley?

Regardless of whether they buy or sell, the Phillies must make a trade at this year’s deadline. It’s an opportunity for them to improve the team in some way, shape or form, whether for the present or future.

If the Phillies do buy, the logical first choice is to pursue a top bullpen arm under team control for the foreseeable future. Someone along the likes of John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers would be a nice fit to be the Phillies’ long-term setup man, but as Amaro noted in the aforementioned article, teams want players in return on the 25-man roster, players Amaro isn’t willing to trade.

Should the Phillies go the selling route, the obvious name to deal is Michael Young. He’s received plenty of trade interest, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal notes that the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees comprise a total of 12 or so teams that have reached out to the Phillies about Young. Chris Roling of Fansided.com reports that the Cincinnati Reds also hold interest in the Phillies third baseman.

There’s no clear-cut answer as to with whom the Phillies should trade Michael Young. And if this was an article about the one player the Phillies must trade, Young would be that guy. But he’s not part of the one trade the Phillies must make. It’s much simpler than that.

Among other potential trade chips the Phillies possess are ace Cliff Lee and closer Jonathan Papelbon. Lee has been tossed around in trade rumors for ages now, although WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford tweeted the following when he asked Lee at the All-Star Game about the possibility of being traded again:

Cliff Lee on potential trade: ‘As far as I know, it’s not going to happen’

— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) July 15, 2013

That leaves Jonathan Papelbon as a viable trade chip, and there is one dead-on match with the Phillies in a trade: the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have one of baseball’s best teams on paper, but they have dealt with ninth inning woes for most of the season and for a good portion of 2012. They need a bona fide closer, which Papelbon is when he’s at his best.

Unfortunately for both Papelbon and the Phillies, he hasn’t been anything close to his best in recent weeks. After a dominant April and May, Papelbon began to falter as June and July rolled around. While he has a solid 20 saves on the season, he’s also got five blown saves to his name, which is among the worst among not only National League closers, but closers around the majors as well.

His ERA remains a decent 2.27 and his WHIP stands at 0.88, but with an inability to pitch to standard in non-save situations in addition to the blown saves tally, Papelbon may not be as appealing to other teams as he was in April or May.

And let’s not forget that he’s due a minimum of almost $35 million over the next two and a half years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

However, a team like the Tigers is truly desperate for a ninth inning solution, but ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that they may have another man in mind for their closer role:

 

There is some hope in the Tigers’ organization that when the dust settles, they will be the team that lands Francisco Rodriguez. We’ll see.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 20, 2013

 

Nevertheless, the fit is there. The Tigers have emerged into a big market team with the need for talent to boot. Papelbon fits that bill. And with a payroll that’s capable of taking on most, if not all, of Papelbon’s contract, the Phillies could find themselves a decent taker without having to eat much salary, if any.

Concerning the potential return in such a deal, the Phillies may make out better with quality over quantity due to Papelbon’s contract.

The Tigers have three top prospects that would interest the Phillies: Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon. All three entered the 2013 season among Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, with Castellanos moving up from baseball’s 21st-best to 15th-best prospect in the minors after Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 update.

In my opinion, the Phillies could make out in two different ways here. The first option would be to acquire just Castellanos. I don’t believe that, if the Phillies want Castellanos, they can receive anything more in return. If they do, it’s a steal. Even so, Castellanos by himself would be a nice get.

A third baseman by trade, Castellanos has played in left field for most of 2013 since Miguel Cabrera is entrenched at the hot corner and the Tigers lack a surefire solution in left. Avisail Garcia could find himself in one of the corner outfield spots when all’s said and done, but for now, Castellanos is the Tigers’ left fielder of the future.

For the Tigers, that may not be such a bad thing. George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press wrote that Castellanos’ outfield instincts are starting to come together and that he’s made a lot of progress on the defensive side of the ball.

Offensively, Castellanos has always been a stud, and that hasn’t changed in 2013. Spending the entire year at Triple-A, Castellanos has batted .284 with an .805 OPS and has hit 12 home runs along with 52 RBI, all in 102 games. Those are pretty good numbers, especially considering that he’s as close to the majors as he’ll be without actually playing for Detroit.

If the Phillies acquired Castellanos, they would have a slight conundrum on their hands. Castellanos would theoretically take over left field duties, but Domonic Brown is there and would have to move back to right field, which may not be best for his positive development. Third base would be vacant after the season, but Cody Asche and breakout prospect Maikel Franco are both entrenched there.

This would mean that either Brown, Castellanos, or Asche and/or Franco would have to switch positions, and that isn’t an ideal situation for the Phillies organization to find themselves.

The other option that’s probably more realistic is if the Phillies acquired Garcia and Rondon, and it may make sense for multiple reasons. For starters, the Phillies seek a major league ready outfielder under team control for years to come.

Garcia fits that bill, though he is still a work in progress at the major league level. As for Rondon, he would slide in sooner or later to the closer’s role, and with a fastball that easily hits 100 miles per hour, he could become a superstar closer for the Phillies within the next couple of years.

Castellanos may be more appealing and would be a fantastic offensive weapon for the Phillies to possess for six-plus years.

As for Garcia and Rondon, the tandem would fill the two holes the Phillies have most. Whether or not they believe that they can make a trade with the Tigers for any of these three players is a different story in and of itself, but either return would be sensible for a team lacking in blue chip prospect depth.

What’s holding the Phillies back is their inability to determine if they should buy or sell by next Wednesday, July 31.

Their upcoming road series against the St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers should help clear up the fog shielding the answer to the Phillies’ situation (and if I had to guess, the Phillies will be selling by the end of their nine-game road trip).

But regardless of what happens within the next week, the Phillies must absolutely pursue and strike a deal with the Tigers involving Jonathan Papelbon and any of Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon.

It’s a trade that makes sense for both teams for the present and future, and a deal that could position both teams for success, whether in 2013 or beyond.

Read more Philadelphia Phillies news on BleacherReport.com

Stock Up, Stock Down for Philadelphia Phillies’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 16

Following June’s First-Year Player Draft and the first half of a majority of minor league seasons, we now have an updated ranking of the Philadelphia Phillies’ top 10 prospects.

The new ranking, according to Bob Brookover, Matt Gelb and Marc Narducci on Philly.com, sees both new names and some shuffling of previously highly ranked prospects.

Between Jonathan Pettibone losing his prospect status, Darin Ruf’s first taste of Triple-A and the Phillies having a first-round draft choice for the first time since 2010, the updated rankings feature three new names.

Additionally, between injuries and outstanding seasons so far, some players’ rankings have either increased or decreased since prior to the season.

Which players are now considered top 10 prospects? Which players have seen their ranking improve based on their first-half performances?

Let’s take a look at whose stock is up, whose stock is down and who is new to the list following Week 16.

 

*All statistics courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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