Cliff Lee’s Career-Threatening Injury Is a Sounding Alarm to Trade Cole Hamels

Cliff Lee has sent Ruben Amaro Jr. his much-needed wake-up call.

Now it is up to Amaro to actually wake up.

Lee is the Philadelphia Phillies former ace and currently a 36-year-old left-hander whose balky elbow has him face to face with the end of his successful career. Amaro is the Phillies’ general manager and currently the man who still has not traded his one strong bargaining chip and current left-handed ace, Cole Hamels.

But Amaro should not be that guy for much longer. He should move Hamels in the near future if not immediately. And if he keeps Hamels longer than that, then he should cease to be the team’s GM. Either way, Amaro should not be that guy for much longer.

Don’t hold any precious breaths waiting for that to happen, though. Lee’s career-threatening elbow injury is not going to push Amaro into trading Hamels, and apparently, neither is any other injuries to pitchers on other clubs.

“Nope,” Amaro told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark when asked if his asking price on Hamels has softened after Lee’s injury. “Why would it change? No reason to change it.

“I don’t know what our ‘stance’ on Cole is. Others have ‘stances,’ I guess, for us. I guess other people must think we have a ‘stance.’ Our ‘stance’ is that we’re open-minded. And that hasn’t changed one bit.”

But open-minded in Amaro’s world seems to differ from common folk.

Here is the Cole Hamels Situation, or “stance,” as we have come to know it since last July at the non-waiver trade deadline: Amaro has refused and will continue to refuse any trade offer for his ace that does not completely knock him off his designer loafers.

Many Rival evaluators find PHI asks on their players to be greatly overpriced within the context of the current market, as they did in July.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 19, 2014

The inherent injury risk of hanging onto Hamels does not even register into Amaro’s thinking.

“There’s no lesson learned from Lee’s situation because it’s a totally different situation. One guy is hurt. The other guy is completely healthy,” Amaro dissected to Stark.

“All pitchers can get hurt. All players can get hurt. It can happen any time,” Amaro later added. “That has nothing to do with the way we go about our business, [by] planning for a player to get hurt. That doesn’t make any sense.”

Understandable. You do not “plan” for a player’s injury without any pre-existing knowledge that he is prone to having one, which is Hamels’ situation. Still, trading your most valuable asset at his highest value in order to fully kick-start your team’s rebuild is not the same as planning for injury.

It is just wise, especially when we have now learned over the last eight and a half months that Amaro’s dream package is not dropping onto his doorstep. And if it does between now and next July 31, it likely means that the pieces he covets have significantly lost value to their current organizations, which also does not bode well for the Phillies.

The teams the Phillies have flirted with—the Red Sox, the Rangers, the Yankees, the Padres—have aggressive but analytical front offices. If they are unwilling to part with key prospects at this point, especially when they lack a true ace (Red Sox) or have just lost one for the season (Rangers), their minds are unlikely to change. This becomes particularly true next offseason when you consider the crop of available starting pitchers might be the deepest in the history of free agency.

And if Amaro hangs onto Hamels beyond this coming July, his value drops dramatically with three years instead of four on his contract, another year of age and mileage on his arm and plenty of other options on the market that do not cost high-end prospects.

“Again, if there were deals that we felt were appropriate for us to move forward, then we would,” Amaro told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com last month before Lee was hurt and before the Rangers lost Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery. “So far some of the deals that we’ve discussed with some of our players have not yielded what we’ve wanted to do. And in some cases, we feel like we’re better off staying with the players that we have for a variety of different reasons. We’ll move forward accordingly.”

But what forward is there to move toward without a trade for Hamels? The team has no other pieces worth salivating over, and it is clearly not in a position to win anytime soon, with or without Hamels. Hamels understands this and has stopped barely short of asking for a trade to a contender during this spring training.

So instead of waiting for the eye-popping prospect package, which is just not available these days like it was when the Rangers traded Mark Teixeira in 2007, the Phillies ought to seek their best available offer as soon as possible and be done with this cloud of constant speculation.

At one point this offseason, we all saw Lee, if healthy and effective, as a trade piece at some point before August. That option has been erased.

Now, Lee is a simply a reminder of one of the possible risks of hanging onto Hamels too dearly. His injury is not the reason Hamels should be traded but more of a notice of what could happen in a worst-case world.

The reason for a Hamels trade has long been upon us considering the Phillies have lost 259 games in the last three seasons. And until now, Amaro has engaged in the kind of hardball no other MLB executive is willing to play, and it is costing his franchise valuable time in its attempt to regain relevancy.

Lee’s elbow is Amaro’s alarm sounding. The Phillies now have to hope his snooze button is broken.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Ruben Amaro’s Strategy Will Set Phillies Back for Years

As NFL free agency gets underway, there has already been a slew of trades that have changed the landscape of the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been arguably the most aggressive team, getting rid of several integral parts from last year’s squad and loading the roster with new faces.

Love or hate Chip Kelly, it kind of makes sense. The Eagles were not successful enough in 2014—they missed the playoffs—so Kelly decided to make drastic changes.

Across the City of Brotherly Love, the Phillies are not abiding by the same logic. After winning the National League East every year from 2007-2011—including a World Series title in 2008—the Fighting Phils have been more hapless than anything else.

Common sense would suggest that some changes might need to be made, but the Phillies‘ front office hasn’t really made any.

Instead of trading a few veterans in an attempt to bolster the farm system and build for the future, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has decided to dole out huge contracts to over-the-hill players and refuses to trade them even when their value is high.

Back in 2010, the Phils signed Ryan Howard to a 5-year, $125 million extension. To be fair, that was when he was a premier slugger and MVP-caliber player. But he was 30 years old at the time, and the extension would last into his late 30s. For an overweight, one-dimensional first baseman, maybe it wasn’t such a smart decision.

However, hindsight is 20:20, and nobody could predict Howard totally falling off a cliff.

But when Amaro comes out  in the offseason and says it would be better if Howard was not a part of the team, it ‘s obviously not a good situation.

Also, they signed Chase Utley to an extension back in 2013 when his productivity was already declining. Again, it’s a case where Amaro chose to sign a player into their late 30s.

It’s easy to second guess these deals now, but past history shows that players usually do not sustain their greatness in their mid-to-late 30s.

As a result, the current Phillies roster is filled with former All-Stars who are well past their prime. The team has plenty of holes, and the thought of them contending in the NL East is a complete joke.

This is a team that needs to go into full-scale rebuilding mode—as the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and New York Mets have in recent years—in hopes of being legitimate contenders three, four or five years down the road.

It’s pretty clear Amaro hasn’t executed a successful agenda to this point, and a problem seems to arise when he refuses to consider other approaches.

As I read the article, some quotes really stuck out to me.

Basically, Stark was wondering if Cliff Lee‘s recent injury would change the way Amaro approached future trade opportunities involving Cole Hamels.

He continued to rephrase the question in an attempt to get his point across, but Amaro refused to budge from his position.

This is what Amaro said after Stark asked him if the Lee injury at all changed the organization’s stance on Hamels:

I don’t know what our ‘stance’ on Cole is. Others have ‘stances’, I guess, for us. I guess other people must think we have a ‘stance.’ Our ‘stance’ is that we are open minded. And that hasn’t changed one bit.

He says they are open minded, but he demonstrates the opposite. He has shown a tendency to cling to his old ways, overvaluing his players and refusing to negotiate.

The most recent and compelling example of this tendency is the Hamels sweepstakes.

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Phillies asked the Dodgers last season for their top three prospects; outfielder Joc Pederson, shortstop Corey Seager and left-handed pitcherJulio Urias.

All three of those Dodger prospects are among the most highly touted youngsters in all of baseball—they were all ranked in the top 15 of MLB.com’s 2014 Prospect Watch—and nobody on the planet would give away that kind of special talent for a non-elite pitcher like Hamels. 

Then, Rob Bradford of WEII.com reported in January that the Phillies were “unrealistic in their expectations” of the market for Hamels, possibly asking for Boston top prospects Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart in a potential deal.

If the Phillies truly believe that Hamels is worth that much, then I applaud them for sticking to their guns, but I would also say that maybe it would be prudent to at least go back and forth with other teams. It never hurts to negotiate.

Amaro also repeatedly told Stark that the Lee injury would in no way affect how they look at Hamels:

Is there a lesson learned from Yu Darvish? All pitchers can get hurt. All
players can get hurt. It can happen anytime. That has nothing to do with the way we go about our business, [by] planning for a guy to get hurt.

That line doesn’t make much sense; he is basically fueling the competing argument. Stark was trying to make a case for trading Hamels now while he is healthy because pitchers are getting hurt at such a high rate recently.

Amaro responded by agreeing that pitchers get hurt all the time. Yes, that’s kind of the point. The fact that pitchers are getting hurt at such an alarming rate means that it makes sense to at least consider trading Hamels while he is in good health.

Again, at least consider it. Don’t completely disregard that line of thought, especially when the Phillies have not only one of the least-talented big league rosters but also a poor farm system.

It would be one thing if Amaro has had success as a general manager. If he were very good at his job, then maybe he would have an excuse for sticking to what he’s always done.

But he simply has no track record of being a competent executive. One must not forget that Amaro was not the GM when the Phillies won the World Series—he took over that position in 2009.

All Amaro has done is oversee one of the most dramatic MLB plunges in recent memory. The Phillies were one of the worst teams in the league in 2014, and they did nothing to change that this offseason.

In his first three years on the job, when he enjoyed the success of the former general manager’s efforts, the Phillies went a combined 292-194, which is extremely good.

He inherited stars such as Roy Halladay, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Howard and Utley and watched them do big things while they were in their prime.

However, as the roster aged and Amaro didn’t make any major changes, the team has plunged to the National League cellar. They have gone 227-259 the past three seasons and have not finished above .500 in any of those years.

So, all in all, when you are a baseball executive who doesn’t appear to have done anything on your own, I think it would be prudent to at least consider other opinions.

Standing pat has not worked out too well for Amaro so far. It seems borderline insane to believe that continuing to follow the same failing strategy will somehow yield positive results in the future.

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Cliff Lee Surgery Would Add Pressure on Phillies to Get Cole Hamels Deal Right

Cliff Lee‘s left elbow made it through just one spring training start—and all of two innings—last Thursday before he was shut down the following day with another bout of elbow discomfort in the same spot that plagued him for much of 2014.

The 13-year veteran went for an MRI on Sunday that revealed some inflammation, and while it’s too early to tell yet, Lee did acknowledge that surgery is at least a possibility. If that’s how this plays out, then Lee’s 2015 season will be over before it even begins—and there’s a chance his baseball career could be finished too.

“It would be 6-8 months out,” Lee said, via Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “So basically if I have the surgery this season will be done. Possibly my career I guess. I don’t know. We’ll have to see.”

And just like that, all the pressure is back on general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of the Philadelphia Phillies front office to do right by a rebuilding organization and make the most out of the club’s final big trade chip, Cole Hamels.

Were it only about his success, experience and postseason history, Lee would make for an enticing option for the Phillies to peddle to clubs eying a proven starter—provided, of course, they made the $37.5 million Lee is owed more palatable.

But combined with that amount of money, this latest run-in with elbow discomfort or soreness makes Lee absolutely immovable.

As Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News writes:

The Phillies (and Lee) obviously hoped to see the pitcher progress this spring without any issues. Had Lee stayed healthy, he could have been a nice trade chip for Amaro and Co. … and Lee himself could have potentially joined another team prior to the July trade deadline as he pursues an elusive World Series ring.

That is out the window at this point. If Lee weren’t considered damaged goods after making just 13 starts in 2014—none after July 31—due to elbow problems, well, he definitely is now.

Even if Lee were to be OK enough to pitch in the first half of the season, there’s just not going to be much interest in or market for a 36-year-old left-hander with a contract that is cumbersome (and then some) and, more importantly, an elbow that is unwilling to cooperate.

Which brings us back to Hamels, who now more than ever is Amaro’s last chance to turn the aging, injury-prone core of what was a top-notch team for several years into a batch of young, cost-controlled talent to help with a long-overdue rebuilding project that has just begun.

A 31-year-old southpaw, Hamels has been at the center of trade rumors dating back to last July and continuing all throughout this past offseason, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com notes.

While Amaro did manage to bring in some prospects, like Tom Windle, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively, by swapping longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins and in-his-final-act outfielder Marlon Byrd, Hamels remains the lone piece that could net a return of real, franchise-altering value.

Nobody is knocking down Amaro’s door to ask about closer Jonathan Papelbon, and nobody is even picking up the phone to inquire about first baseman Ryan Howard.

The reports all along have been that Amaro has refused to budge on his terms involving Hamels, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. That means the GM won’t trade him unless the acquiring club sends an elite package of prospects and picks up most, if not all, of the $96 million Hamels is due through 2018.

“Cole Hamels is a known entity,” Amaro told Stark. “A known winner. A known World Series MVP. A known top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. If Cole Hamels continues to be Cole Hamels, which we fully expect him to be, why would [his trade value] decline?”

Funny, but a similar sentiment might have been uttered about Lee this time last year.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Hamels has a $20 million option for 2019 that he might want picked up if dealt, especially to one of the teams on his limited no-trade clause.

The good news here is that Hamels has yet to show any sort of decline or injury concern, meaning his value on the trade front remains relatively high. He is, after all, coming off a career-best 2.46 ERA last year.

That’s a big reason why Amaro needs to get it right when it comes to trading Hamels, which feels like an inevitability by now, whether it happens in the month between now and the start of the regular season or by the trade deadline at the end of July.

It’s also a big reason why Amaro should be willing to bend, if only a little bit, in his demands with regard to a return for Hamels. If nothing else, Lee—who had a 2.80 ERA while making at least 30 starts in each of his first three seasons since re-signing with Philadelphia—is an unmistakable example of how fast a pitcher’s career can be derailed.

Here’s Amaro’s bottom line: More than ever, he needs to get it right when trading Hamels, but in light of Lee’s latest ailment, the leverage is going in the wrong direction.

 

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Cliff Lee Injury: Updates on Phillies Star’s Arm and Return

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee underwent evaluation after he felt elbow discomfort in the days following a spring training appearance. It was later revealed he has a tear in his flexor tendon. 

Continue for updates. 

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Lee Throws Bullpen Session, Still Feels Discomfort

Wednesday, March 11

The Phillies provided comment from Lee after a bullpen session, who said, “It does feel a little better. There’s still something there, but it’s not bad. So if it stays the way it is, I think I will be good. Time will tell.”

On March 10, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com revealed that Lee had a tear in his flexor tendon and that if the pitcher didn’t show improvement, surgery was likely.

Jayson Stark of ESPN passed along comments from Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., who said the team was “not terribly optimistic” Lee could avoid surgery.

“It would be six to eight months out. So basically if I have the surgery this season will be done. Possibly my career I guess. I don’t know. We’ll have to see,” Lee said, courtesy of Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer on March 9. 

“Obviously you’re going to take your chances on rest and rehab and that’s what we did. So potentially I’m the 3 percent that needs surgery and potentially it’s scar tissue breaking up and it’s normal. But I think it’s early to know which one it is,” Lee added, per Breen. 

Stark recorded more comments from Lee regarding his current level of optimism: “I’m not going to go out there in pain to where something bad can potentially happen. I’m going to play as long as I comfortably can. When it’s uncomfortable to play and it hurts to play, then it’s not worth it.”

Lee also suggested he isn’t sure about surgery, per Stark: “I’ve got a family at home and I’ve been away from them for a long time, so that is part of the equation.”

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Lee Scratched From Start

Sunday, March 8

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports passed along a statement from the Phillies:

Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News provided remarks from general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. about the situation.

“You have to be alarmed, we have to be concerned because it’s the same area and he feels something,” Amaro said. “It’s the same area, the same issues he had last year.”

Elbow trouble limited the left-hander to just 13 starts last season.

 

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Fit and Healthy, Former MVP Ryan Howard Angling for Late Career Rebirth in 2015

It was one game, two at-bats. Also, it’s spring training. So take this with a boulder-sized grain of salt. Still, when it comes to Ryan Howard and the Philadelphia Phillies, any good news is welcome.

On Tuesday, Howard delivered some good news.

Hitting cleanup in the Phillies’ spring opener against the New York Yankees (we won’t count the embarrassing loss to the University of Tampa on Sunday), Howard went 2-for-2 with an RBI. And more importantly, he looked good doing it.

Here’s manager Ryne Sandberg, discussing his much-maligned first baseman on Feb. 26, per NJ.com‘s Matt Lombardo: 

His body right now looks like it will allow him to be more productive. … Just running the bases he even looks better. It looks like he has a much better chance of scoring from second base, much better getting to the cut-off spot playing first base. There should be some more range there with the way he looks from the waist down.

It was worth wondering how the former MVP was doing between the ears after Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told 97.5 The Fanatic‘s Mike Missanelli in December that it would “bode better for the organization not with [Howard] but without him.”

Howard is owed $50 million over the next two seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for 2017. So it’s no surprise Amaro found no takers in the trade market. Howard posted a paltry .223/.310/.380 slash line in 153 games last year and paced baseball with 190 whiffs.

“His lower half has quit on him,” an unnamed evaluator told ESPN.com‘s Buster Olney after last season. “He just can’t move. I think of him as a .240, .250 hitter. He’s not a legitimate 40-homer guy anymore; he’s a legitimate 20-homer guy.”

Given Howard’s trajectory, even those lowered expectations seemed Pollyanna-esque.

I say “seemed,” but you could keep it in the present tense. Again, a little “best shape of his life” buzz and one good spring game don’t erase three years of steady decline.

But imagine if Howard could recapture the form that led him to four consecutive top-five MVP finishes between 2006—when he won the award—and 2009.

How much would that guy fetch, either at the deadline or next winter, especially if the rebuilding Phillies were willing to eat part of his salary? 

That’s jumping way, way ahead. Even if Howard keeps hitting and looking spry in the Grapefruit League, he’ll have to translate that success to the regular season before anyone takes his comeback seriously.

The list of injury-plagued 35-year-olds who have resurrected their careers is a short one.

For the moment, though, Phils fans (always a critical bunch) can be forgiven for looking through rose-colored glasses. 

Howard is an easy guy to root for—affable, energetic and by all accounts a visible clubhouse presence. Last year, as CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury noted, that all melted away:

There were times in 2014 when you’d look at Howard plowing his way through pregame sprints and wonder if he really wanted to be there. You’d look at him walk dejectedly back to the dugout after one of his majors-leading 190 strikeouts and wonder what was going through his mind. Money can’t buy confidence and Howard’s appeared to be shattered in 2014. 

In addition to his on-field struggles, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News reports Howard was embroiled in a legal battle with family members “over control of his finances.”

So we’re looking at a mountain of distractions that explain Howard’s plight—and cast serious doubt on his ability to overcome.

That doubt won’t disappear tomorrow, or the next day, or the next, no matter what Howard does on the diamond.

Still, for a player who not so long ago ranked among the game’s most feared sluggers, it had to feel nice to be the bearer of a little good news.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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Phillies’ Cliff Lee Answers Questions Using Magic 8 Ball During Press Conference

Baseball season is finally underway, and Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee has already run out of answers for the media.

Following the pitchers’ and catchers’ first workout of the season, Lee used a Magic 8 Ball to field questions from reporters. 

Teammate Cole Hamels recently voiced his displeasure with the way the Phillies are headed into the 2015 season, so maybe Lee used the Magic 8 Ball to distract from the sticky situation.

[CSN Philly, h/t Next Impulse Sports]

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These Teams Give Cole Hamels a Chance to Win Now

Cole Hamels has spoken.

And while he is demanding nothing, he made it unequivocally clear that he wants to win, that winning cannot and will not happen in Philadelphia and that he would like to be traded to a team with a chance to do that.

Speaking to the media for the first time since last season, Hamels told all of this to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Really, who can blame him for feeling this way?

“I just want to win,” Hamels said. “That’s all. That’s all any competitor wants.

“And I know it’s not going to happen here.

“This isn’t what I expected. It’s not what the Phillies expected, either.

“But it’s reality.”

Hamels was careful to praise the only organization he has ever known, the Phillies, and the city where they play. But he also understands that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. so botched the franchise’s rebuild—not Hamels’ words, by the way—that the Phillies absolutely will not win in 2015, and that it could be difficult for the team to win for the duration of his six-year, $144 million contract signed in 2012.

Including this summer, there are four guaranteed years remaining on the deal at $96 million, which includes a $6 million buyout. There is also a club option for $20 million that would take the contract to five years and $110 million.

About a month ago, once it became fairly clear Hamels would be traded only if a suitor became desperate and caved to Amaro’s demands, the GM made his thoughts about Opening Day clear to Jake Kaplan of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

“I think Cole Hamels is going to be in our uniform, frankly,” Amaro said. “I don’t really foresee him being moved.”

However, now that Hamels has made it clear he wants to win and that it won’t happen in Philadelphia, maybe the Phillies will be more willing to appease their ace. The question now is what team will pay the high asking price.

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MLB Trade Rumors: Buzz Surrounding Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and More

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in a matter of days, so most of the free-agency and trade rumors have settled down as MLB teams are focused on what they have on their rosters. After all, position battles are about to take center stage.

However, there are still loose ends to tie up before the season begins, including some potential trades. The Philadelphia Phillies in particular could make some moves, especially since they may be in for something of a rebuilding season.

With that in mind, here is a look at some of the latest trade rumors circulating around baseball before spring training officially begins.

 

Cole Hamels

Bob Nightengale of USA Today passed along an update on Cole Hamels:

From Philadelphia’s perspective, it makes sense to ask for someone as talented as Blake Swihart, especially if this season is truly going to be a rebuilding effort. He is only 22 years old and widely regarded as one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Swihart has the chance to develop into a superstar who hits for average and power and effectively manages a pitching staff.

As for Boston, this is an interesting tight rope to walk.

The Red Sox could use an ace like Hamels atop the rotation (who couldn’t?), and he just posted an impressive 2.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last season. Hamels has also pitched more than 200 innings in each of the last five seasons. Adding a durable, left-handed ace to the top of a rotation is a sure-fire way to bolster a team’s World Series chances, and that opportunity is there for Boston.

What’s more, there is never a guarantee that a prospect will pan out at the major league level, even if he seems like a complete lock to put up impressive numbers.

On the other hand, Hamels is 31 years old, and his best years could very well be behind him. Swihart may not be as valuable as Hamels in 2015, but there is a real possibility that the catcher will be the better long-term option. 

That is something the Red Sox will have to decide upon before pulling the trigger on any trade.

 

Jonathan Papelbon

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports noted that Jonathan Papelbon could be on his way to the Milwaukee Brewers, but it is not a sure thing yet:

The Brewers and Phillies are still considering a deal involving star closer Jonathan Papelbon, though there appears to be a bit of work yet to do.

Milwaukee is said to be the favorite to land Papelbon, but one person suggested early Wednesday the sides may be in a bit of a “holding pattern.” The holdup appears to be related to a gap in thoughts about player compensation going back to Philadelphia.

Papelbon turned in a formidable season in 2014 and finished with 39 saves and a 2.04 ERA even though he didn’t have the pop on his fastball like he did in years past. Those numbers should help the Phillies in any potential trade negotiations with Milwaukee. 

Still, the Phillies’ hopes of landing a deep package from Milwaukee in return for Papelbon took a hit recently, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel pointed out:

If nothing else, the Brewers now have some leverage in these discussions, which is not great news for the Phillies. Of course, Chris Perez had a 4.27 ERA this past season, so how much leverage the Brewers actually have depends on how much value they put in Perez as compared to what they would get from Papelbon.

Based on last year’s numbers, Milwaukee may want to keep this dialogue open with the Phillies before spring training.

 

Cliff Lee 

Jayson Stark of ESPN passed along an update on Cliff Lee:

It is interesting that Lee appears to be on the trade block given the comments this offseason from general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., via Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.

“I think he wants to win and I think he wants to be on a club that wants to win,” Amaro Jr. said. “Much like others I’ve spoken to he’d rather be in that position here, but we’re in a different stage. But just like anyone else, Cliff will pitch and I expect him to pitch like a champion. Our minds are open on everything.”

Lee only made 13 starts in 2014 because of lingering elbow problems and will likely have to prove his health to any interested team before a trade happens. He is 36 years old and owed $25 million in 2015, so teams may not be lining up to trade for him as of now. 

However, if he was to return and turn in an impressive start of the season, the Phillies could get a solid package back in a move at the trade deadline. That may be the best-case scenario from Philadelphia’s perspective when it comes to potentially moving Lee and accelerating the rebuilding process with some young assets in return.

 

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Ruben Amaro Jr. Must Pay for What the Phillies Have Become

The losses are on Ruben Amaro Jr.’s hands.

The ones in the past, the ones for 2015 and ones that could come beyond this upcoming season, whether he is in office or not, are all on Amaro. This offseason provided a clear shot to be progressive by making his team younger with an eye toward the future.

Instead, the Philadelphia Phillies general manager is hanging onto the past as he completes the team’s transformation from championship contender to a case study in how to decimate a franchise. This is why Amaro must pay for his transgressions with his job.

For the sake of the Phillies franchise, the sooner he does, the better.

Ruben Amaro is the worst GM in sports RT @MattGelb: The Phillies, according to a club source, did not make a trade.

— Mike Loyko (@NEPD_Loyko) July 31, 2014

That tweet came at the July 31 trade deadline, but it’s not just last summer’s flubbed deadline that should write Amaro’s GM obituary. It is his entire six-year tenure, with the latest debacle coming this offseason when he was unwilling—not unable—to trade ace Cole Hamels.

It certainly was not for a lack of interest in the left-hander with four years and $96 million remaining on his contract. The problem was Amaro, who other executives described as asking for unreasonable packages in return for Hamels. It was the same problem tagged on Amaro at the last trade deadline.

Many Rival evaluators find PHI asks on their players to be greatly overpriced within the context of the current market, as they did in July.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 19, 2014

This comes at a time when younger, more analytical GMs lean toward trading away a player too soon rather than too late. Amaro clearly does not subscribe to this thinking.

And now that the rush of phone calls had calmed and teams have gone elsewhere for pitching needs, Hamels is destined to be a Phillie on Opening Day despite an aggressive push to take him away.

“Not aggressive enough, obviously, because we haven’t done anything,” Amaro told Jake Kaplan of The Philadelphia Inquirer a couple weeks ago. 

“If I was going to handicap it, I would probably say that he’d be in our pinstripes on opening day and pitching against Boston.”

With that, the Phillies are looking quite similar to the teams that lost 89 games each of the last two seasons, even with the trades of Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd. As the rest of the National League East improves, Amaro keeps locking the cellar door behind him.

The Phillies still have Hamels, their one trade chip that could change the franchise’s future fortunes. They still have Cliff Lee, who is 36, hurting and went from a 7.3 WAR (Baseball-Reference.com) in 2013 to 0.8 last year. They still have Ryan Howard, a man Amaro publicly said the team would be better off without. They still have Jonathan Papelbon, a personality not so conducive to living quietly in a losing clubhouse.

Between those four, Amaro has committed $85.5 million for this season. Throw in Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Gonzalez, and Amaro has committed $107.7 million to seven players. Only Gonzalez, a 28-year-old minor league reliever, is younger than 30. All of those deals were signed under Amaro’s reign.

No wonder Sporting News dubbed him the worst GM in baseball last year.

For now, Amaro has the backing of his bosses. When Pat Gillick was hired as the team’s GM in 2005, the franchise did so with the underlying idea that Gillick would be something of a mentor to Amaro, then the assistant GM. That thought was reaffirmed during Gillick’s tenure when Amaro became the public face of the front office as Gillick worked away from the spotlight.

Because of the history there, it came as no shock when Gillick “absolutely” backed Amaro after he was brought back into the mix as the team’s interim president in September.

“Right now there’s no thought whatsoever of replacing [Amaro Jr.],” Gillick said via The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb.

It is understandable that Gillick made these comments. He did not want to come in and damn his current GM and one-time mentee as his first order of business. But Gillick must see that Amaro buried the franchise to the point that it will take a complete rebuild, not a retool, to come out from under the soil.

For a fair chunk of the overall debacle, things looked great. The Phillies were a contender for Amaro’s first three years at the controls, and he also deserves some credit for the 2008 World Series and the 2007 NL East title as he was the assistant GM when those clubs were being constructed.

When he took over, Amaro lived in the moment. He ignored the future to build historically good teams and sign expensive players. The goal was to win as many World Series titles as he could in the window allotted.

The problem is he won zero and handed out what can be argued as the worst contract in baseball history (for now, while Albert Pujols is still productive) when he signed Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension, a deal that didn’t even start until he turned 32. Amaro also agreed to several other questionable deals with aging players.

The real payment for those fun times has been due for the last two seasons, and the bill collectors will keep calling in 2015.

Amaro took over a franchise with money and World Series expectations when he landed his current job after the 2008 championship season. He chased the dream by spending recklessly, ignoring warning signs and the club’s future. The intentions were somewhat understandable with the exception of Howard’s deal, which was panned immediately and led to Amaro trying to cover it up with more bad deals (i.e. Cliff Lee).

The problem is that in trying to sustain a winner, Amaro was setting dynamite to a franchise that had drafted well and spent wisely under its previous GMs. The fuse was set years ago, and the bombs have been going off for three seasons now, with Amaro trying to hide the disaster by pouring cups of water on an inferno.

Amaro cannot stop what he set in motion. And because he refused to blow it up himself when he should have, the Phillies have to make him part of the wreckage when failing to move Hamels is the final stick of dynamite to blow.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent he previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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Are the Phillies Being Foolish in Stalling Cole Hamels Trade?

You might have noticed that the Cole Hamels Trade Countdown is stuck. It seemed to be steadily ticking down for a while there, but the Philadelphia Phillies have pushed the pause button.

And not by accident. They appear to have a plan. It’s whether they have a good plan that’s the question.

Though Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported two weeks ago that the Phillies were in “staredowns” with four teams in trade talks for Hamels, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jake Kaplan of The Philadelphia Inquirer last week that he expects the ace left-hander “to be in our uniform, frankly.”

As for why Amaro doesn’t foresee a trade, he didn’t bother arguing that Hamels can help the Phillies win in 2015. Evidently, he understands the Phillies are a bad team that is now undergoing an overdue rebuild.

Rather, here’s the real deal: “That said, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. And so, if we were to move him, we’re going to have to get some of the best prospects in baseball back.”

So it goes. Amaro‘s asking price has been rumored to be super-high from the start, and there are reports out from Rob Bradford of WEEI.com and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports that say rival executives perceive Amaro‘s asking price to be too high.

Which is a fair gripe. Though Hamels has been one of the National League‘s best pitchers in recent seasons, he’s also 31 and is still owed somewhere between $100 and $120 million over the next four to five years. I figure he’s worth only one top prospect on top of his remaining contract, which clearly isn’t the deal Amaro has in mind.

You can call it stubbornness, but here’s guessing “patience” is the word Amaro prefers. He’s apparently decided that he’s better off waiting for teams to come to him rather than stooping to go to them.

And in fairness, one need not be Spock to see the logic in that idea.

For Amaro to get the offer he wants for Hamels, he needs leverage. To get leverage, he needs more desperate buyers.

That nobody seems desperate now has much to do with timing. The winter has reached the point where rosters are largely set, and teams are more or less ready for the season. A sellers’ market, this is not.

But it may not be long before Amaro has a desperate team or two knocking on his door. It’s generally accepted that spring training is meaningless, but take it from Amaro‘s boss that it has been known to change teams’ minds.

“It’s funny. In this game, things change,” Phillies President and CEO Pat Gillick told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. “People are not in the mood to do something, then they go to Spring Training and all of a sudden…they realize they want to be competitive and want to do something. A lot of this maybe will shake out in Spring Training. I’d look for probably more interest in a lot of our players come Spring Training.”

It’s not unthinkable that a team will get midway through spring training, suddenly have second thoughts about its rotation and decide to get serious about Hamels. The injury bug could also steer teams toward him, just as it steered the Atlanta Braves toward Ervin Santana last spring.

And if the demand for Hamels doesn’t heat up this spring, it could always heat up during the season.

As FanGraphs‘ Jeff Sullivan explained at Fox Sports:

The big upside is this: during the year, wins are valued more highly than they are during the offseason. … During the year, teams know more about their quality and place in the standings than they know in December or January. Also, there are just fewer pieces available, especially in this era with additional wild cards, where it’s easier than ever to believe your team’s in contention. The trade deadline makes for a good seller’s market.

If their plan is to open the season with Hamels, these things bode well for the Phillies.

Also, Hamels is only going to get cheaper. More and more money will be chipped off his $23.5 million salary for 2015 as the season moves along. And if he’s still available next winter, prospective buyers would be looking at a $76.5-94.5 million pitcher rather than a $100-120 million pitcher. 

Basically, Amaro is going by the book. He’s put a big price on Hamels’ ace status and is now playing the waiting game to hopefully strike when the iron is hot later rather than striking while the iron is cold now.

Again, you can see the logic. Just as easy to see, however, are the potential pitfalls of this plan.

For starters, there’s no guarantee that demand for Hamels will increase in spring training.

Teams may have second thoughts about their rotations or experience injuries, but expendable assets don’t conveniently increase as needs appear. And with six full months of real baseball directly ahead, it’s not the best time for teams to get desperate enough to sacrifice what assets they do have.

In theory, the Phillies stand a better chance of moving Hamels during the season, when teams know what they need and the trade market favors sellers. But in reality, 2015 is a year when the Phillies could be out of luck.

Teams are undoubtedly going to need pitching help when the trade deadline rolls around, but the point about assets not conveniently increasing when needs appear still stands. Teams are always looking to be cost conscious, which is why you hear so much about cheap rental players around the trade deadline.

And looking ahead, this summer could be teeming with rental pitchers. The list of free-agent-to-be pitchers includes: Mark Buehrle, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, John Lackey, Mat Latos, Kyle Lohse, Rick Porcello, David Price, Jeff Samardzija and Jordan Zimmermann.

Not all of those names are going to find their way to the trade block. But some of them will, and their modest prices could absolutely make it difficult for the Phillies to peddle Hamels at their price. 

And that’s a problem that could extend into the winter. It’s probable that all of those pitchers will be looking for work on the open market. In that case, the pitching supply would easily outweigh the demand and, in turn, make a huge asking price for Hamels look decidedly laughable.

All of this is to say nothing of the other issue with holding on to Hamels. Though the passing of time will indeed make his contract more affordable, it will also shorten his controllability. If teams are unwilling to meet Philadelphia’s asking price for Hamels’ four remaining years, they may be even less willing to meet a similar asking price for three and a half or three remaining years.

Then there’s the outlook of Hamels himself. He may hold ace status now, but injuries and/or a good old-fashioned decline could easily take it from him.

And with Hamels, these are real concerns.

He’s less than a year removed from arm trouble that delayed the start of his 2014 season. He also has elbow and shoulder injuries on his medical track record and probably isn’t getting any more durable now that his 31-year-old arm has over 1,800 innings on it.

If Hamels does remain healthy, the career-best 2.46 ERA he authored in 2014 strongly suggests his performance isn’t due for a step back. There are metrics that strongly suggest otherwise, however.

Per FanGraphs, Hamels had one of the largest differences between his ERA and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of any pitcher last season. Two other metrics (xFIP and SIERA) liked him even less than FIP did. Because these metrics are more useful with predicting future performance than ERA, this doesn’t bode well.

So, in a nutshell: Hamels is both an injury and a regression risk, and his trade market is poised to be clouded by a wealth of alternative options and his own ever-descending controllability.

The potential reward of holding on to Hamels is definitely there. But this is where we say that the risk appears to be stronger than the reward. And in this case, that’s our cue to say the Phillies are better off making a safe trade now than holding out for an ideal trade later.

Don’t expect the Phillies to change course, though. Amaro‘s calling the shots, and the Rosenthal report cited way back when included a note from a rival executive that Amaro might need a “perfect” trade to save his job. If true, he has nothing to gain from moving quickly and everything to gain from waiting.

What’s best for Amaro, however, may not be what’s best for the Phillies. They already have a long rebuild ahead of them, and not trading Hamels now could well make it even longer.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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